Market Update
Treasury yields fell further in August as the prospect of a new rate cut cycle beginning as soon as the Fed’s September meeting came more clearly into view. The 2-year yield fell -34bps in August, to 3.92%, while the 10-year yield declined -24bps, to 3.90%. Two- and 10-year yields have now seen peak to trough declines of -117bps and -91bps, respectively, year to date. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index generated a solid 1.44% return in August amid the declining rate environment. The index has returned 3.07% year to date and -0.04% over the last five years amid significant interest rate volatility.
Recent months’ trends held steady as deal volume and pricing were relatively muted through July. Yet both continued to show steady improvement as optimism has grown that the market is nearing the nadir of its years-long correction.
| • | | CRE transaction volume continues to show signs of thawing as investors prepare for a new rate cutting cycle. Measured on a three-month moving average, CRE deal volume has been positive in two of the past three months compared to the steady drumbeat of deeply negative volume during the first eight months of 2023, ranging from -50% to -60%.1 |
| • | | Monthly property pricing has seen similar improvements in recent months as the RCA All Property Commercial Price Index turned positive in May 2024 and has seen steady but modest increases in the three months since.1 |
CRE fundamentals outside of Office remain resilient, lending support to the market, as strong fundamentals have allowed property owners to offset some of the impact of higher interest rates.
Demand for space has clearly decelerated from historic levels yet remains robust in most property sectors as net absorption is significantly positive in three of the four major sectors. Multifamily demand has seen a sharp improvement over the past year, driven in part by more affordable rental opportunities nationwide while industrial demand has slowed to a more sustainable level than that of the past several years. Retail demand has remained firm as consumers have been reinvigorated to in-person shopping, and even malls posted positive absorption and a dip in vacancy in Q2 2024.
Rent growth across the CRE market has slowed in recent quarters, though that can be linked almost exclusively to an increase in new construction rather than a decrease in demand. Crucially, this supply headwind is fading—while we expect deliveries in these sectors to remain elevated through the remainder of 2024, a plunge in new construction starts portends a more favorable 2025 and beyond.
Office remains the clear outlier as a massive retrenchment among tenants continues to drive net operating income lower while the vacancy rate steadily rises.1
Ultimately, we expect transaction and lending activity to pick up amid a lower-rate environment in the coming quarters but believe the outlook for property values—and therefore, CRE equity investors—is much foggier. We expect CRE debt to benefit from increasing refinancing volumes and continue to outperform CRE equity in a higher-for-longer rate scenario.
Against this backdrop, we continue to view 2024 as the beginning of the next phase of a multiyear CRE correction, during which debt should remain broadly attractive relative to equity. Importantly, we believe alternative lenders continue to be in an excellent position to take market share as transaction volume improves and banks remain constrained.
1 | MSCI Real Capital Analytics, as of July 31, 2024, latest data available. |