Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities
On January 28, 2022, our board of directors approved the issuance of up to $50,000,000 in shares of our Class I common stock in a private placement exempt from registration under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Private Placement”). On December 19, 2024, we accepted a subscription from an institutional investor to purchase $5,500,000 in Class I shares in the Private Placement. On January 2, 2025, we sold and issued to such institutional investor approximately 227,871 Class I shares at the per share purchase price of $24.1365, which is equal to the NAV per Class I share as of December 31, 2024.
Market Update
Treasury yields rose in December and during the fourth quarter of 2024 amid firm economic and inflation data, both of which drove Fed policymakers to pare back their rate cut expectations in 2025. 2-year yields rose 9 basis points (bps) during December and ended the year about flat whereas 10-year yields rose 39bps and ended the year near the top of its annual range. Against this backdrop, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index returned -1.6% in December and 1.3% in 2024. The Agg has been flat (-0.33%) over the last five years amid significant interest rate volatility.
While commercial real estate (CRE) transaction volume and property values remained muted during 2024, the CRE market looks set to enter recovery mode in 2025, fueled by strengthening fundamentals, growing investor confidence, and stabilizing interest rates.
| • | | Property sales through the first 11 months of 2024 were just 2% higher than in 2023 and remain about 33% below the 2019 level, demonstrating the extended freeze that has gripped the acquisition market.1 Yet we believe the price expectations gap between buyers and sellers has significantly closed. While we do not expect rates to ride to the CRE market’s rescue in 2025, we expect the rate environment will be stable enough to support a recovery in transaction volumes. |
| • | | Measures of CRE property values show price declines have largely abated as monthly pricing measures have risen in each month since June 2024.1 |
Meanwhile, market participants have become increasingly confident the CRE market will improve while CRE market fundamentals remain strong.
| • | | The CREFC CRE Sentiment Index has methodically improved from its nadir in Q3 2022 to an eight year-high today. Other market indicators, such as credit spreads on CMBS bonds, confirm the improvement in sentiment. |
A strong economy has kept demand healthy across most sectors, but a surge in the delivery of new industrial and multifamily space—construction that was largely started in the low-rate era of 2021 and early 2022—resulted in moderating rent growth over the past two years.
Looking forward, completions in the multifamily and industrial sectors are set to plunge as higher rates deplete the new construction pipeline. Meanwhile, supply growth in the retail and office sectors remains essentially nonexistent. This construction air pocket will likely materialize in the context of a healthy economy and strong demand for space, pushing a meaningful improvement in rent growth across some sectors. This should give property owners the opportunity to drive strong income growth, which will be pivotal in what we believe is a new investing era.
Ultimately, we expect transaction and lending activity to pick up in 2025 but believe the outlook for property values—and therefore, CRE equity investors—is much foggier as base rates today are well above those from five and 10 years ago, a tenor that represents a normal investment holding period for a CRE property.
1 | MSCI Real Capital Analytics, as of November 30, 2024, latest data available. |