Redemptions and Change in Market Conditions
While redemption requests are down from their peak in January 2023, they have remained above our share repurchase plan’s monthly and quarterly limits for the past year and a half. To meet the continued level of redemptions, real estate property sales became increasingly necessary to execute our ongoing liquidity strategy.
Earlier this year, forecasts called for as many as six interest rate cuts in 2024. Most property owners who could wait to sell assets assumed property yields would be supported by these lower rate expectations later in the year. This was a worldwide phenomenon. In summary, it is safe to say the majority of sellers in Q4 2023 through Q2 2024 were forced or distressed sellers. If you could wait, you did. Commercial property transaction volumes plummeted by more than 70% in the U.S. and a similar amount overseas. Surprisingly to most, the U.S. economy has stayed stronger than anticipated. Today, only one or two rate cuts are forecasted, and year end short-term rate expectations have risen nearly 75 bps. As a result, we too chose to slow our property sales for “sunnier” skies.
Our current outlook, which includes the Fed’s lower interest rate forecast, improving capital markets visible today with declining lender spreads, and the 50-70% decline in new construction starts across residential and industrial, our major sectors, all point to what we believe will be a more advantageous environment for real estate in the future.
As a result, and as a fiduciary to our stockholders, we cannot recommend being an aggressive seller of real estate assets today given what we believe to be a near-bottom market with limited transaction volumes, and our belief that the real estate markets will improve. There is plenty of “dry powder” to purchase real estate, but much of it remains on the sidelines as bid ask spreads remain elevated, the sign of market not functioning properly.
Share Repurchase Plan Amendment
For the foregoing reasons, after very careful consideration and thoughtful debate, we have amended our share repurchase plan. As amended, beginning with repurchases during the month of May 2024, we will limit share repurchases to 0.33% of NAV per month (measured using the aggregate NAV attributable to stockholders as of the end of the immediately preceding month). In addition, beginning on July 1, 2024, we will limit share repurchases to 1% of NAV per quarter (measured using the aggregate NAV attributable to stockholders as of the end of the immediately preceding quarter). Using our NAV as of April 30, 2024, these new limits equate to approximately $33 million of available liquidity per month, $100 million per quarter or $400 million per year under our share repurchase plan.
Timing
While we will continuously evaluate the market, it is our expectation to provide share repurchases at this level for approximately six to twelve months in anticipation of a lower interest rate environment and improved real estate capital markets picture allowing us to make normalized asset sales as necessary. We will also examine other potential liquidity options.
Management Alignment and Fee Waiver
In connection with the share repurchase plan amendment, our Advisor has agreed, commencing with the month of May 2024, to waive 20% of its management fee, thereby reducing it from 1.25% of NAV to 1.0% of NAV, until our share repurchase plan has been reinstated to the monthly repurchase limit of 2% of NAV (measured using the aggregate NAV attributable to stockholders as of the end of the immediately preceding month) and quarterly repurchase limit of 5% of NAV (measured using the aggregate NAV attributable to stockholders as of the end of the immediately preceding quarter).
Our Advisor does not take this decision lightly and remains heavily invested alongside our stockholders. Our Advisor, its affiliates and employees currently hold approximately $509 million in shares of our common stock or more than 5% of our company. Further, our Advisor has taken all management fees and performance fees (when earned) in shares or Operating Partnership units since our inception.