C. Safe Harbor Statement under the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Certain statements contained in our Second Quarter 2001 Financial Release are forward looking and involve uncertainties that could significantly impact results. The words "believes," "expects," "estimates," "anticipates," "will be" and similar words or expressions identify forward-looking statements made on behalf of Caterpillar. Uncertainties include factors that affect international businesses, as well as matters specific to the Company and the markets it serves.
World Economic Factors Our current outlook calls for a significant slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy in the first half of 2001, but growth is expected to pick up momentum in the third quarter of the year through 2002. Should recent interest rate and tax reductions fail to stimulate the U.S. economy as expected, leading to a more protracted slowdown in 2001, or a recession, then sales of machines and engines would decline more sharply than expected this year and could be negatively impacted in 2002 as well. The outlook also projects that economic growth is expected to continue at more moderate rates in Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa & Middle East and Latin America. If, for any reason, these projected growth rates were lower than expected, sales would likely be lower than anticipated in the affected region. Recent economic weakness in Japan is leading to lower than expected growth in the Asia Pacific region, particularly Southeast Asia. In general, renewed currency s peculation, significant declines in the stock markets, further oil or energy price increases, political disruptions or higher interest rates could result in weaker than anticipated economic growth and worldwide sales of both machines and engines could be lower than expected as a result. Economic recovery could also be delayed or weakened by growing budget or current account deficits or inappropriate government policies.
In particular, our outlook assumes that the Japanese government remains committed to stimulating their economic recovery with appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. In recent months, however, the Japanese economy is showing sudden signs of severe weakness, and this is having a negative impact on the outlook for the Asia Pacific region. The outlook also assumes that the Brazilian government follows through with promised fiscal and structural reforms; and that the newly appointed finance minister in Argentina successfully restores investor confidence in government policies in the second half of 2001. A reversal or setback by any of these governments could result in greater economic and financial uncertainty and a weaker economy. Specifically, in the first half of July the Argentinean currency came under severe speculative attack. If this speculative attack continues for several more weeks, leading to an Argentinean debt default, and/or full scale currency devaluation, then the sales and revenue outlook for the Southern Hemisphere would be adversely impacted compared to our current outlook. The Russian economy has improved, but political and economic uncertainty remains high and an unexpected deterioration could impact worldwide stock or currency markets, which in turn could weaken company sales.
Our outlook also assumes that currency and stock markets remain relatively stable, and that world oil prices move down, on average, from relatively elevated levels in the fourth quarter of 2000. If currency markets experienced a significant increase in volatility, and/or stock markets were to decline significantly, uncertainty would increase, both of which would probably result in slower economic growth and lower sales. In addition, an eruption of political violence in the Middle East could lead to oil supply disruptions and resumed upward pressure on oil prices. In this case inflation pressures would move up again and interest rates would be higher than currently projected, leading to slower world economic growth and lower Company sales.
The Russian economy has improved, but political and economic uncertainty remains high and an unexpected deterioration could impact worldwide stock or currency markets, which in turn could weaken Company sales.
Commodity Prices The outlook for our sales also depends on commodity prices. Our outlook for moderate worldwide economic growth in 2001 suggested that industrial metals prices would be about flat on average in 2001. Recent declines in industrial production in Europe and Japan have exacerbated the depth and duration of the expected slowdown, and industrial metal prices experienced additional downward pressure in the second quarter. As a result, machine sales to the industrial metals area could come under downward pressure in the second half of 2001. Oil prices are expected to decline from an average of about $30 to $32 a barrel in 2000 to an average of $25 to $30 a barrel in 2001. Agricultural prices are likely to be flat. Based on this forecast, equipment sales into sectors that are sensitive to crude oil prices are expected to be up in 2001. Industry sales to the agriculture equipment markets are expected to be about flat in 2001.
Further weakness in world economic growth could lead to sharp declines in commodity prices and lower than expected sales to industrial metals and agriculture sectors.
Monetary and Fiscal Policies For most companies operating in a global economy, monetary and fiscal policies implemented in the U.S. and abroad could have a significant impact on economic growth, and, accordingly, demand for a product. In the United States, the Federal Reserve moved aggressively to reduce interest rates in the first half of 2001. This action, together with federal tax cuts is expected to stimulate U.S. growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2001. On the other hand, the European Central Bank has not lowered interest rates significantly in response to slower economic growth and a weak agriculture sector in 2001, and machine and engine demand in Europe is likely to be lower than expected in the second half of 2001.
In general, higher than expected interest rates, reductions in government spending, higher taxes, significant currency devaluations, and uncertainty over key policies are some factors likely to lead to slower economic growth and lower industry demand. The current outlook is for lower U.S. growth in 2001, but not a recession. If, for whatever reason, the U.S. were to enter a recession, then demand for Company products could fall in the U.S. and Canada and would also be lower throughout the rest of the world.
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