John Pierce
CONSULTING ACTUARY
1420 RENAISSANCE DRIVE SUITE 104 PARK RIDGE, IL 60068 | PHONE (847) 297-1177 FAX (847) 297-1178 |
Lex Vendetti, President American Inter-Fidelity Exchange 8400 Louisiana Street Merrillville, IN 46410 | March 5, 2010 |
Dear Lex:
Attached is a draft of my 12/09 actuarial report for AIFE. Please look over this draft and get back to me with any revisions or corrections. If there are no changes, we can consider this as the final actuarial report.
Once again this year we did not need to redo any exhibits because of late changes in the current year premium. Thanks to Melinda Clark for her work in providing us with the final premium at an earlier point in the cycle.
As you know, the NAIC requires that the actuary “present” this report to the company’s Board of Directors (or at least to the Audit Committee of the Board). However, it is generally agreed that this NAIC requirement can be satisfied by you providing each of the Board members with a copy of this actuarial report. Of course, I’d be happy to meet with the Board to present this report, if you’d prefer.
| Sincerely yours, | |
| | |
| John Pierce | |
| F.C.A.S. M.A.A.A. M.B.A. | |
| | |
Copy: Alex Meloy | | |
John Pierce
CONSULTING ACTUARY
1420 RENAISSANCE DRIVE SUITE 104 PARK RIDGE, IL 60068 | PHONE (847) 297-1177 FAX (847) 297-1178 |
Board of Directors American Inter-Fidelity Exchange 8400 Louisiana Street Merrillville, IN 46410 | March 5, 2010 |
Dear Sirs:
Shown below is my analysis of the 12/09 loss and LAE reserves of American Inter-Fidelity Exchange (AIFE). This material represents the “actuarial report and underlying workpapers” described in my 2-27-10 loss and LAE reserves actuarial opinion letter for your company. Per NAIC regulations, this report should be retained by you for a period of seven years.
This report contains workpapers, trade secrets, and confidential information of AIFE. It has been prepared solely for use by management of the company, and is available for regulatory examination as required by the NAIC. Because of the nature of the material, this report is not intended to be subject to any disclosure requirements under the various state Freedom of Information Acts.
Except for use by your own staff and examination by regulators as required, please do not release this material to anyone without our firm’s written permission.
Overview American Inter-Fidelity Exchange (AIFE) was organized in 1988 as a risk retention group for the long-haul trucking industry. The AIFE risk retention group wrote Auto Liability insurance for long-haul trucking firms throughout the period 1988-1994. AIFE entered into rehabilitation during 1994. During the period 1994-2000, AIFE continued to write Auto Liability business while in rehabilitation, but only for trucking firms affiliated with the two organizers of the original risk retention group (Hal Antonson and Mike Kibler).
At 12/01 AIFE emerged from rehabilitation.
Data Sources Information for our analysis, including but not limited to:
a) | the premium data and loss data used in our analysis |
b) | explanation of the nature of AIFE’s business, and |
c) | explanation of the reinsurance structure for the company |
was provided to us by officers and employees of AIFE (primarily by Lex Venditti). In the early years of the company’s operation, the premium and loss data for some components of the company’s business was provided only on paper reports. At the 12/02 through 12/09 year-ends, loss data for all components was provided to us in computer files which were readable by our spreadsheet programs.
March 5, 2010
Reinsurance Structure AIFE has operated with excess-of-loss reinsurance for Auto Liability during its entire period of operation. The history of this per-claim reinsurance protection is detailed below:
Inception to 7/91 | | $500,000 excess of $500,000 for Auto Liability |
| | |
7/91 to 1993, plus | | $750,000 excess of $250,000 for Auto Liability |
runoff on policies in force at 12/93 | | |
| | |
1994-1999 (first part of 1999 year) | | $900,000 excess of $100,000 for Auto Liability |
| | |
1999 (last part of 1999 yr) to 2002 | | $800,000 excess of $200,000 for Auto Liability |
| | |
2002 (last part of 2002 year) | | $750,000 excess of $250,000 for Auto Liability |
to 2009 | | |
| | |
However, five selected accounts have a higher reinsurance attachment beginning in 2006, as follows:. |
Last part of 2006 (4/06 to 6/07) | | $650,000 excess of $350,000 for Auto Liability, |
| | |
Last part of 2007 (7/07 and after) | | $500,000 excess of $500,000 for Auto Liability, (Reinsurance renewals occurred on either 4/07 or 7/07, but these five accounts renewed on 7/07) |
In addition, one large account — Carolina National Transportation — has had differing policy limits over the years. Beginning in 1999 this account had a $200,000 policy, which was 100% retained by AIFE. In early 2002 the account moved to a standard $1 million policy with a standard reinsurance attachment point. That Carolina National policy terminated on 3-15-05. However, the account was written again effective 4/06 — but with a $50,000 per claim deductible.
Reinsurance for the period from inception to 1993 was provided through annual reinsurance treaties. Reinsurance for the 1994-2009 period has been provided by facultative certificates. A separate facultative certificate is written for each trucking firm.
Both the treaty and facultative reinsurance contracts provide for pro-rata coverage of LAE. Losses before deductible are compared to the reinsurance retention, and the reinsurer pays a percentage share of the LAE equal to its percentage share of the loss. For example, consider the following hypothetical claim:
$210,000 loss plus $5,000 LAE
$5,000 deductible
$200,000 reinsurance attachment point
In this example, the reinsurer will pay $10,000 of the loss and will also pay $238, or 4.76%, of the LAE ($10,000/$210,000 = 4.76%). AIFE will pay $195,000 of the loss ($200,000 minus the $5,000 deductible) and $4,762 (95.24%) of the LAE. The insured will pay $5,000 of the loss. AIFE’s total payment on this hypothetical claim is therefore $199,762.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
March 5, 2010
It is my understanding that AIFE has never had any reinsurance protection other than its reinsurance on Auto Liability. The company does not have any reinsurance protection on Collision or on Cargo claims.
Reinsurance Impact on Auto Liability Claims Data When AlFE entered rehabilitation, the company began reserving all claims at no more than its reinsurance retention. For example, a hypothetical claim from 1995 accident year might have a reserve value of $195,000 – but AIFE would record only a $100,000 reserve on this claim because the excess over $100,000 would be ceded to the facultative reinsurer. (Statutory accounting requires the company to set a reserve of $195,000 on this hypothetical claim, and then take an offsetting credit of $95,000 to reflect the amount ceded to the reinsurers.)
This non-standard reserving procedure was still in effect through the 12/02 year-end. Open claims in the company’s Auto Liability historical database were therefore limited to the reinsurance retention levels for that particular year — either $100,000, $200,000, or $250,000. However, paid claim data is in the database without any limitation. (Carrying the example of the previous paragraph forward, if that hypothetical 1995 claim had in fact been paid and closed at $195,000, the AIFE claim database would include the entire $195,000 paid amount.) AlFE’s Auto Liability historical claims data was therefore neither entirely at full value, nor entirely capped at the reinsurance retention levels.
Beginning with the 12/03 year-end, open claims were reserved at 100% of the expected value. Beginning with the 12/03 year-end, case reserves were no longer limited to the applicable reinsurance retention.
Auto Liability Development Triangles Attached are a variety of exhibits in which we project Auto Liability IBNR at 12/09. The first set of exhibits are:
Exhibit 1 | | A development triangle of all loss & ALAE, without any capping for reinsurance protection. Ultimate loss & ALAE is projected using average of last 5 loss development factors. |
Exhibit 2 | | These are the amounts to be removed from Exhibit 1, to cap losses at $100,000 per claim, $200,000 per claim, $250,000 per claim, $350,000 per claim, or $500,000 per claim. |
Exhibit 3 | | Development triangle, capped at $100,000 per claim. Ultimate loss & ALAE is projected using average of last 5 loss development factors. |
Exhibit 4 | | Development triangle, capped at $200,000 per claim. Ultimate loss & ALAE is projected using average of last 5 loss development factors. |
Exhibit 5 | | Development triangle, capped at $250,000 per claim. Ultimate loss & ALAE is projected using average of last 5 loss development factors. |
Exhibit 6 | | Development triangle, capped at $350,000 per claim. Ultimate loss & ALAE is projected using average of last 5 loss development factors. |
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
Exhibit 7 | | Development triangle, capped at $500,000 per claim. Ultimate loss & ALAE is projected using average of last 5 loss development factors. (We produced this $500,000 triangle for the first time at the 12/07 year-end because of the new $500,000 reinsurance attachment point.) |
Exhibit 8 | | Runoff of Auto Liability IBNR reserves at the 12/01 through 12/08 year-ends, based on projections using the average of the last 5 loss development factors. In this analysis, we recalculate the 12/01 through 12/08 IBNR’s – based on developments through 12/09. |
Note the following details about the construction of these exhibits:
1. | The attached Auto Liability loss development triangles Exhibits 1-7 were constructed from the *.dbf claim database files which were provided to us. One file of claims data was provided for each year-end point beginning with the 1994 year-end. |
2. | There is a 12/93 diagonal in these triangles. The Auto Liability data provided by you incepted with the 12/94 diagonal. The 12/93 diagonal has been excerpted from our workfiles of the old (i.e. pre-rehabilitation) AIFE as a form of double-check. |
3. | In the 2001 and prior years the Carolina National policy of $200,000 had been 100% retained by AIFE, so the $100,000 version of our triangles is not exactly correct for Carolina National. Other than this one exception, Exhibit 2 calculates ceded amounts according to our understanding of AIFE’s reinsurance contracts. |
There are two additional sets of Exhibits 1-8. The first additional set uses the average of the last 3 loss development factors and the second additional set uses the average of the last 2 loss development factors. Actually, Exhibit 2 does not change in the alternate scenarios, so the two additional sets of Exhibits 1-8 do not include a copy of Exhibit 2.
(There is a need for judgment in the selection of loss development factors in any development triangle approach. However, the relatively small volume of AIFE’s Auto Liability business results in a higher than average variability in loss development factors. Rather than attempt to identify “unusual” loss development percentages from a pattern which is already quite variable, we instead rely on using several loss development approaches – averaging the last 5 loss development factors, averaging the last 3 factors and averaging the last 2 factors – to determine the sensitivity of your Auto Liability IBNR to variations in your loss development factors.)
The revalued Net (after-reinsurance) Auto Liability IBNR reserves from the (three versions of) Exhibit 8 are:
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
| | | Original Auto | | | | | | Selected | | |
| | | Liability IBNR | | | | | | Redundancy or | | |
Year-End | | | Reserve | | | Range of Revalued IBNR reserves | | | (Deficiency) | | |
12/01 | | | $ | 1.050 million | | | $1.393 million | | | $ | (343,000 | ) | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/02 | | | $ | 1.950 million | | | $1.677 million | | | $ | 273,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/03 | | | $ | 2.477 million | | | $1.603 million | | | $ | 874,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/04 | | | $ | 2.365 million | | | $2.040 million to $2.070 million | | | $ | 310,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/05 | | | $ | 2.600 million | | | $2.150 million to $2.286 million | | | $ | 382,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/06 | | | $ | 3.535 million | | | $1.902 million to $2.132 million | | | | 1,518,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/07 | | | $ | 4.182 million | | | $1.869 million to $2.327 million | | | | 2,084,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/08 | | | $ | 3.826 million | | | $1.400 million to $2.135 million | | | | 2,059,000 | | |
The revalued 12/06, 12/07 and 12/08 IBNR’s do not include any additional IBNR at 12/09 for the $50,000 deductible policies. Those high-deductible policies incepted in 2006. That additional IBNR will be calculated in a later section of this report.
In all three versions of our triangles (averaging the last 5, last 3 and last 2 loss development factors) we see that the projected 2009 accident year loss ratio in every case is lower than the 2008 loss ratios. In most of these versions, there had been a steady increase in loss ratio – with the 2007 loss ratio higher than the 2006 loss ratio and the 2008 loss ratio higher than the 2007 loss ratio. Normally an increase in loss ratios from year to year would be expected, if rate increases are less than a loss severity trend of perhaps 5% to 7% per year. The decline in the 2009 projected loss ratio is therefore surprising.
(Note that we have adjusted the 2006-2009 premiums on Exhibits 1-7. We have removed all 2006-2009 premiums from policies with the high $50,000 deductible. We then calculated loss ratios using premiums with and without the premium for policies with these $50,000 deductibles. The trends in 2006-2009 loss ratios were evident using either of the two premium bases.)
Also attached is an exhibit calculating the company’s Auto Liability rate changes from the 2008 policy year to the 2009 policy year. Rates before reinsurance increased by an insignificant 0.03% and rates after reinsurance increased by about 2.93%. This after-reinsurance increase is relatively modest, and should not have a dramatic impact on the 2009 loss ratio.
We also produced a development triangle of Auto Liability claims, which is attached as Exhibit 9. There are a few interesting conclusions from this exhibit:
1. | Exhibit 9 is predicting that 10 additional Auto Liability claims will be reported in 2010 and subsequent years, on 2009 and prior dates of loss. |
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
2. | Exhibit 9 also shows that your Auto Liability claim frequencies per $1,000 of earned premium had been declining from a high point of 0.105 claims per $1,000 of Net premium in the 2004 accident year. In this year’s exhibit, we have considered claim frequencies both with and without the premium and claims from the policies with a $50,000 deductible. There is some continuing decline in claim frequency during the 2005-2009 accident years in both versions. |
Exhibit l0 uses the ultimate claim counts from Exhibit 9, and the ultimate loss and LAE from Exhibits 3-7, to calculate the average Auto Liability claim sizes implied by our loss development methods. In our analysis of these results, we concentrated on the versions which are capped at $250,000, $350,000 and $500,000 per claim. The 12/09 IBNR is almost entirely from accident years which are reinsured at the $250,000 or higher levels.
In Exhibit 10, we would expect Auto Liability claim sizes to increase over time due to inflationary and other pressures which result in a positive loss severity trend. While the pattern of average claim sizes over time in Exhibit 10 is somewhat erratic, claim sizes for the $250,000, $350,000 and $500,000 versions do generally increase during 2003-2005. Average claim sizes for the 2006 and 2007 accident year are similar to or slightly lower than the 2003-2005 average. Then in 2008 average claim sizes increase dramatically from 2007, in all three of our methods (Average last 5, last 3 or last 2) and for all attachment points ($100,000 to $500,000). Finally, 2009 average claim sizes are lower than average claim sizes in any ofthe 2003-2008 years.
On Exhibit 10 (in the bottom portion of that exhibit) we also considered alternate calculations of average claim size for 2006-2009 accident years, in which we removed the claim counts from those policies with $50,000 deductibles. On this alternate basis, we also see very high average claim sizes for the 2008 accident year and lower average claim sizes for the 2009 accident year. However, in this alternate analysis there is very little disparity between the 2009 averages and the 2006-2007 average claim sizes.
The decline in projected 2009 average claim sizes which results from our Exhibit 1-7 IBNR projections is surprising.
The results of our Auto Liability projections are sununarized on the attached Exhibit II. The IBNR’s from the various development triangles are combined in Exhibit 11 using the following algorithm:
For 1998 and prior accident years, use the $100,000 version of IBNR (Exhibit 3)
For the 1999 accident year, use 1/4 of the $100,000 version (Exhibit 3) and 3/4 of the $200,000 version (Exhibit 4)
For the 2000 and 2001 accident years, use the $200,000 version of IBNR (Exhibit 4)
For the 2002 accident year, use 1/4 of the $200,000 version (Exhibit 4) and 3/4 of the $250,000 version (Exhibit 5)
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
March 5, 2010
For the 2003-2005 accident years, use the $250,000 version of IBNR (Exhibit 5)
For the 2006 accident year, use 50% of the $250,000 version (Exhibit 5) and 50% of the $350,000 version (Exhibit 6)
For the 2007 accident year, use 22% of the $250,000 version (Exhibit 5), 39% of the $350,000 version (Exhibit 6), and 39% of the $500,000 version (Exhibit 7)
For the 2008 accident year, use 20% of the $250,000 version (Exhibit 5) and 80% of the $500,000 version (Exhibit 7)
For the 2009 accident year, use 21% of the $250,000 version (Exhibit 5) and 79% of the $500,000 version (Exhibit 7)
These algorithms assign IBNR based on AIFE’s actual reinsurance structure:
2006 Year As shown towards the bottom of Exhibit 11, about 42% of the 2006 Auto Liability premium is from policies with a $350,000 reinsurance attachment. However, that percentage was increasing - from 0% in the first quarter 2006, to 26% in the second quarter, and to 71% and 61% in the third and fourth quarters. Because IBNR would be more heavily concentrated in the more recent accident quarters, we weighted the $350,000 IBNR in 2006 by a 50% factor instead of the actual 42% value.
2007 Year As shown at the bottom of Exhibit 11, about 22% of the 2007 Auto Liability premium is from policies with a $250,000 reinsurance attachment. The 78% remaining portion of the Auto Liability business moved from a $350,000 attachment to a $500,000 attachment at 7/1/07. We then split that 78%, on a 50/50 basis. That split of the 78% gave the 22%-39%-39% split used in Exhibit 11 for the 2007 accident year.
2008 Year Actual premium for this year was split 80% for policies with a $500,000 attachment point and 20% for policies with a $250,000 attachment point. (Last year we had used a different premium split, due to an error in our calculations.)
2009 Year Actual premium for this year was split 79% for policies with a $500,000 attachment point and 21% for policies with a $250,000 attachment point.
Our projected Auto Liability Net IBNR is in the range [$1.296 million to $2.012 million] at 12/09. The mid-point of that range of 12/09 Net IBNR’s is $1.654 million.
Adjustment to Projected Auto Liabilitv IBNR The company’s Auto Liability premium volume before reinsurance has been declining in recent years – from an average of about $4.50 million per year in 2003-2007 to only $2.364 million in 2009. We would therefore expect some decline in Auto Liability IBNR in the more recent years. On the other hand, we have the dramatic decline in our projected 2009 loss ratio (without any significant rate increases for Auto Liability) and the dramatic decline in average Auto Liability average claim size for the 2009 accident year. These results cause us to question our Exhibit 1-7 IBNR.
We are projecting 122 ultimate Auto Liability claims in the 2009 accident year. Increasing the average claim size of these 122 claims by about $4,000 would result in the 2009 averages being more consistent with the 2007 and 2008 averages. This adjustment would result in a $488,000 increase in 12/09 IBNR (where $4,000 * 122 = $488,000). This increase in IBNR would also increase the Net loss ratio on Exhibits 1-7 by about 34 points (where $488,000 divided by $1.432 million of Net premium excluding premium on $50,000 deductible policies). If we include the Net premium on the $50,000 deductible policies, the increase in Net loss ratio would be about 25 points.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
March 5, 2010
In summary, an additional $488,000 of Auto Liability IBNR in the 2009 accident year would:
1. | Increase the 2009 average claim sizes to a level consistent with the 2007-2008 history. |
2. | Increase the 2009 Net loss ratios – using premium either with or without the $50,000 deductible policies – to a level consistent with the 2007-2008 history. |
As we had last year, we also considered a model in which we calculated quarterly loss development factors and applied these factors to the quarterly reported losses of the 2009 accident year. These results (in which we use the Average of the Last 5 version of our Auto Liability triangles) are on the attached Exhibit 11A. These calculations do not support any adjustment to the Exhibit 1-7 Auto Liability IBNR. However, in my opinion the low projected loss ratios and low average claim sizes for the 2009 accident year indicate that some increase in our originally calculated IBNR is needed.
Auto Liability – Adjustment for Higher Deductibles Beginning in 2006, a significant portion of the company’s business – Carolina National Trucking and certain affiliated companies – moved to a higher $50,000 per claim deductible. It is typical for policies with a higher deductible to exhibit greater lag in reporting of losses and LAE in excess of the· deductible.
There are 256 claims from these $50,000 deductible policies, in the 2006-2009 accident years. Reported losses in excess of the deductible are $1.293 million – on five-year Net premium of $2.459 million.
We next consider the IBNR for these $50,000 deductible policies. As shown on the attached Exhibit 12, we calculate IBNR on this policy using several different approaches. We begin with the Average of the Last 5 projection from Exhibits 6 and 7 – our $350,000 and $500,000 attachment versions. (The $50,000 deductible policies are all at the $350,000 reinsurance attachment point for 7-1-06 to 6-30-07 and are at the higher $500,000 attachment for 7-1-07 through 12-31-09.) We calculate that the $1.293 million of reported losses on these policies generated an IBNR of $345,000 at 12/09 which is included in our standard Exhibit 6 and 7 development triangles.
Our alternate IBNR calculations (shown on Exhibit 12) produce possible additional IBNR values as follows:
1. Recalculate all claims using a deductible of only $5,000. Apply our Exhibit 6 loss development factor to this amount, producing an additional IBNR of $534,000. However, this additional IBNR must be reduced by some amount to reflect the savings from the $50,000 deductible – in the layer [$5,000 to $50,000] per claim.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
March 5, 2010
2. Apply Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) excess Auto Liability IBNR factors to the $1.293 million of reported losses on these high-deductible policies. The additional IBNR produced by this method is $345,000.
3. Use the RAA IBNR results for 2006-2008 accident years but use an Expected Loss Ratio approach for the 2009 accident year. Based on our projected loss ratios for 2006-2008, we selected a 100% Expected Loss Ratio for 2009. This calculation produced an additional IBNR of $796,000.
4. In addition, it is worth examining the development pattern of these high-deductible claims. The reported losses on these high-deductible policies have developed as follows:
Accident Year | | At Year-End | | | One Year Later | | | Two Years Later | | | Three Years Later | |
2006 | | $ | 37,500 | | | $ | 51,067 | | | $ | 392,144 | | | $ | 325,256 | |
2007 | | $ | 50,000 | | | $ | 689,194 | | | $ | 801,243 | | | | | |
2008 | | $ | 5,445 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | | | | | | | |
2009 | | $ | 20,001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
This limited development history certainly supports a high IBNR for this block of high-deductible policies.
Based on the results of these three methods – all of which have considerable uncertainty – and based on the development patterns shown above, I believe the highest IBNR should be selected. This selection would result in an additional Auto Liability IBNR of $796,000 to reflect probable late-emerging claims on these high deductible policies.
Of this $796,000 additional IBNR, $293,000 is for the 2006-2008 accident years and $502,000 is for the 2009 accident year. In a previous section of this report, we had calculated a $488,000 increase in Auto Liability IBNR for the 2009 accident year. That previous section of our report now provides support for this $796,000 increase in IBNR. (On the other hand, including both the $488,000 increase and the $796,000 increase would not be reasonable.)
Our projected Auto Liability Net IBNR from our original Exhibit 1-7 triangles was in the range [$1.296 million to $2.012 million]. Adding this $796,000 for the high deductible policies would result in a new Net IBNR range of [$2.092 million to $2.808 million]. The mid-point of that range of 12/09 Net IBNR’s would be $2.450 million.
Your actual 12/09 Net IBNR for Auto Liability is $3.400 million.
Include $50,000 IBNR in Re-Valued IBNR Previously in this report, we had calculated the re-valued Auto Liability IBNR for previous year-ends, based on the results in our Exhibit 1 through Exhibit 7 loss development triangles. Those results did not include any additional IBNR for the $50,000 policies.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
March 5, 2010
Based on the work in the previous section of this report, we can now include this additional IBNR in our previous exhibit of re-valued IBNR’s. Of the $796,000 additional IBNR, $55,000 is for the 2006 accident year, $182,000 is for the 2007 accident year and $56,000 is for the 2008 accident year:
Year-End | | | Original Auto Liability IBNR Reserve | | Range of Revalued IBNR reserves | | | Selected Redundancy or (Deficiency) | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/01 | | | $ | 1.050 million | | | $1.393 million | | | $ | (343,000 | ) | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/02 | | | $ | 1.950 million | | | $1.677 million | | | $ | 273,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/03 | | | $ | 2.477 million | | | $1.603 million | | | $ | 874,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/04 | | | $ | 2.365 million | | | $2.040 million to $2.070 million | | | $ | 310,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/05 | | | $ | 2.600 million | | | $2.150 million to $2.286 million | | | $ | 382,000 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/06 | | | $ | 3.535 million | | | $1.902 million to $2.132 million | | | $ | 1,463,000 | | |
| | | | | | | plus $55,000 additional IBNR for | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | $50K policies | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/07 | | | $ | 4.182 million | | | $1.869 million to $2.327 million | | | $ | 1,847,000 | | |
| | | | | | | plus $182,000 additional IBNR for | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | $50K policies | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12/08 | | | $ | 3.826 million | | | $1.400 million to $2.135 million | | | $ | 1,766,000 | | |
| | | | | | | plus $56,000 additional IBNR for $50K | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | policies | | | | | | |
Excess Liability Policy for U.S. 1 Industries On 11-1-07 AIFE wrote an excess liability policy for U.S. 1 Industries. Premium for this policy is $10,000 per month – so $120,000 of premium has been earned during 2009. Further facts on this policy are:
1. | The premium is 100% retained by AIFE, as there is no reinsurance on this policy. |
2. | The policy limit is $1 million. |
3. | This coverage is in excess of the first $1 million per claim. |
U.S.1 Industries owns several of the trucking companies insured by AIFE. These trucking companies all have Auto Liability policies from AIFE with policy limits of $1 million per claim. This excess liability policy provides protection if a verdict of more than $1 million occurs against one of these trucking companies – and the plaintiff is then successful in “piercing the corporate veil” and collecting from U .S.1 Industries for the amounts in excess of $1 million.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
I would recommend that the IBNR for this excess liability policy be calculated using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (B-F) method. This method relies on an expected loss ratio and a loss development pattern. We recommend using a 75% expected loss ratio and the Excess Auto Liability loss development pattern from the 2005 Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) Loss Development Study. These B-F calculations are shown below:
| | | 2008 Year | | | 2009 Year | | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
A | Earned Premium | | $ | 120,000 | | | $ | 120,000 | | | $ | 240,000 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
B | Expected Loss Ratio | | | 75 | % | | | 75 | % | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
C | RAA Excess Auto Liability % Reported | | | 50 | % | | | 20 | % | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
D | IBNR based on B-F = A*B*(l-C) | | $ | 45,000 | | | $ | 72,000 | | | $ | 117,000 | |
Our recommended IBNR for this excess liability policy at 12/09 is therefore $117,000. The company’s actual 12/09 IBNR for this policy is $117,000.
Auto Liabilitv – “Big Picture” Need for IBNR Reviewing Exhibits 1-7 also provides us with some “big picture” information on AIFE’s need for IBNR.
In considering the overall level of Auto Liability IBNR, we can look back at the history of the 1995-2008 accident years in Exhibits 1-7 and see that reported losses on each accident year have increased from the respective year-end levels – 1995 losses now are higher than they were at 12/95, 1996 losses now are higher than they were at 12/96, and so forth.
We also see that the reported losses for the 1995-2007 accident years have almost always increased by an additional amount in the years after “year-end plus 1 year” (e.g. 1996 losses are now higher than those same 1996 losses were at 12/97).
This type of reserve increase is to be expected for Auto Liability, due to late-reported claims and due to new information on previously reported claims. These historical reserve increases· support the need for AIFE’s Auto Liability IBNR.
AIFE Collision Attached as Exhibit 13 is our analysis of the Collision results of AIFE. This Collision loss development triangle has been constructed using the following assumptions about your Collision loss reports:
1. | The “Date” field gives the Date of Loss |
2. | The total amount of each claim is equal to: |
| IV Loss Res. plus IV Paid plus LAE Res. plus LAE Paid minus Amount Recover (The “IV” abbreviation in your reports stands for “insured vehicle”) |
3. | All paid values are cumulative (inception-to-date) |
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
March 5, 2010
This Collision loss development triangle has been updated to include data through 12/08. This updated triangle is attached as Exhibit 13.
This Exhibit 13 approach projected a minus $87,100 of Collision IBNR at 12/09. Another version of Exhibit 13, in which we make some alternate selections, is also attached. That version projected a somewhat lower minus $71,100 of Collision IBNR at 12/09. Based on this range of results, we selected a minus $75,000 Collision IBNR at 12/09.
Our total recommended Collision reserve at 12/09 is therefore:
$ | (75,000 | ) | | IBNR |
$ | 107,901 | | | Case Reserves |
$ | 32,901 | | | Total Reserves |
Your actual 12/09 Collision IBNR is zero.
(Lex Venditti has explained that the 1995-97 losses in Exhibit 13 are not true Collision claims. Instead, they are Trailer Interchange claims. These Trailer Interchange claims involve damage to a customer’s trailer while it was being hauled by an insured tractor. The trucking company is responsible for this damage to its customer’s trailer, and Trailer Interchange provides coverage for these claims. Premiums for this Trailer Interchange coverage are included in AIFE’s Auto Liability premiums. As for the 1998 year, Lex Venditti has confirmed that there were no Collision claims during this year.)
AIFE Cargo Results Attached as Exhibit 14 is our analysis of the Cargo results of AIFE. At our 12/01 reserve review, a Cargo loss development triangle had been constructed using the following assumptions about your Cargo loss runs:
1. The “Date” field gives the Date of Loss
2. The total amount of each claim is equal to:
Total Res. plus Claim Paid plus LAE Res. plus LAE Paid minus Salvage & Amt. Recover
3. All paid values are cumulative (inception-to-date)
In early 2002 we learned that the Deductible amount shown in these Cargo loss runs should have been subtracted from the items listed in 2 above. We also learned that in some exceptional cases – for “oversize Cargo claims” – the $5,000 deductibles shown on the loss run should actually have been higher amounts. These data problems were then corrected in Exhibit 14.
This Exhibit 14 approach projected a minus $55,700 of Cargo IBNR at 12/09. Another version of Exhibit 14, in which we make some alternate selections, is also attached. That version projected a similar minus $50,000 of Cargo IBNR at 12/09. Based on this range of results, we selected a minus $50,000 Cargo IBNR at 12/09.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
Our total recommended Cargo reserve is therefore:
$ | (50,000 | ) | | IBNR |
$ | 399,482 | | | Case Reserves |
$ | 349,482 | | | Total Reserves |
Your actual 12/09 Cargo IBNR is zero.
Auto Liability – Paid-only Loss Development Triangle During 2005, the Indiana Department of Insurance requested that we consider the use of paid-only loss development triangles for AIFE’s Auto Liability line. We have considered this alternate approach in the attached Exhibits 15-22.
Exhibits 15-21 are the paid-only analogs to our Exhibits 1-7 for paid+case triangles. We have produced only the “Average of the Last 5 LDF’s” version of Exhibits 15-21. Then on Exhibit 22 we calculate the IBNR produced by these paid-only triangles by subtracting the ultimate losses and LAE projected on Exhibits 15-21 from the reported paid+case losses and LAE. We selected the ultimate losses by accident year, and the reported losses by accident year, based on the reinsurance attachment point in each year. (This selection algorithm has previously been described on page 6 of this report.)
Some observations on the paid-only triangles’ projections follow:
1. The latest 5 loss development percentages (“Percent of Ultimate”) at the end of the first development year in the paid-only triangle ($250,000 version) are:
2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 26.9 | % | | | 12.7 | % | | | 5.1 | % | | | 5.4 | % | | | 8.8 | % | ==> | | | 11.8 | % |
The average of these percentages was the basis for my selected 11.8% loss development factor for the 2009 accident year in this paid-only triangle. Contrast these paid-only values with the corresponding factors in the “Average of the Last 5 LDF’s” paid+case triangle (the $250,000 version):
2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 56.0 | % | | | 47.0 | % | | | 36.0 | % | | | 50.1 | % | | | 49.0 | % | ==> | | | 49.5 | % |
Averaging these percentages gave my selected 49.5% loss development factor for the 2009 accident year in the paid+case triangle.
Clearly the paid-only triangle’s Percent of Ultimate factors are much smaller and much more variable than the percentages in the paid+case triangle. Smaller and more variable Percent of Ultimate factors imply greater uncertainty.
2. For the 1998 accident year – an old year where claims are still open — we set the ultimate losses equal to paid at 12/09 plus case reserves at 12/09. Otherwise, the paid triangles would have been unable to recognize the remaining case reserves in this old accident year. Except for this 1998 claim, all other claims from 2002 and prior accident years are closed at 12/09.
3. The Developed IBNR’s from our Paid-Only triangles shown in Exhibit 22 for the 12/01 through 12/06 year-ends are generally similar to the corresponding developed IBNR’s in the original Exhibit 8. The developed reserves in the Paid-Only triangles for the 12/07 and 12/08 year-ends are higher in Exhibit 22 than in Exhibit 8.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
Based on these 12/09 results, I continue to believe that a paid-only loss development triangle for Auto Liability is less reliable than our preferred paid+case development triangle.
Further Details of Loss Development Methodology During 2005 the Indiana Department of Insurance also requested additional details on our projection methodology. I have therefore attached a 4-page “Methodology Appendix” to explain our loss development selection process in some additional detail. I believe this appendix will facilitate any reviews of this report by the Indiana Department of Insurance.
Our Methodology Appendix begins with a loss development triangle with ultimate losses projected through the 2007 accident year. This sheet is labeled “Step 1”. Our loss development projections in Step 1 are incomplete, since we still need to project ultimate losses for the 2008 and 2009 accident years.
In the next sheet (labeled “Step 2”), we average the loss development percentages from the three previous accident years at the appropriate stage of development, and use that average loss development percentage to project ultimate losses for the 2008 accident year.
In the next sheet (labeled “Step 3”) we first calculate the loss development percentages for the 2008 column of our loss development triangle. We are now able to calculate these percentages, because by Step 3 we have an ultimate loss for this 2008 accident year. Then we average the loss development percentages for the three previous accident years at the appropriate stage of development, and use that average loss development percentage to project ultimate losses for the 2009 accident year. The completed loss development triangles shown in this sheet are labeled “Step 4”.
In this Methodology Appendix we have illustrated the iterative loss development process by projecting ultimate losses for two additional accident years. Of course, our actual year-end 2009 work for AIFE involves projection of ultimate losses for more than two accident years – but the iterative approach we use is completely described by the example in our Methodology Appendix.
Adjusting & Other LAE Reserve AIFE’s Annual Statement shows zero payments for Adjusting & Other LAE (formerly called ULAE). Some portion of AIFE’s expenses for salaries and overhead should have been assigned to Adjusting & Other LAE as of 12/09 – and at previous year-ends as well. During 2005 the Indiana Department of Insurance requested that AIFE begin to record these paid salary and overhead amounts as Adjusting & Other LAE costs. However, the company has been unable to accomplish this improved accounting procedure at the year-ends 2005 and subsequent.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
In the absence of any historical payment data, we continued to consider alternate approaches to the 12/09 reserve for Adjusting & Other LAE.
At the 12/01 year-end Lex Venditti had stated that a reasonable fee to a TPA for handling each of AlFE’s open claims until their conclusion would be $750 per claim. At 12/09 we have increased this per-claim amount to $950, to reflect inflationary trend of about 3% per year. This per-claim fee would result in the following 12/09 Adjusting & Other LAE reserves:
236 open claims * $950 per claim = $224,200 Adjusting & Other LAE reserve
(There are 155 open Auto Liability claims, 60 open Collision claims, and 21 open Cargo claims at 12/09.)
In addition, we are projecting 10 Auto Liability IBNR claims in Exhibit 9. The additional Adjusting & Other LAE reserve for these claims would be:
10 IBNR claims * $950 per claim = $9,500 Adjusting & Other LAE reserve
Our total projected Adjusting & Other LAE reserve at 12/09 is therefore about $234,000.
It is possible that some of the 236 open claim counts are due to the increased reporting and recording of small claims. On the other hand, it is also possible that these small claims are closed more quickly than the larger claims so open counts would not be much impacted by this change in procedures. We did not make any adjustment at 12/09 to this reserve component to reflect any increased reporting and recording of small claims.
AIFE’s actual 12/09 Adjusting & Other LAE reserve is $234,000. Based on our calculations, this reserve should be adequate.
Reserves on A Direct Basis As discussed previously, our Auto Liability loss development triangles based on data limited to $100,000, $200,000, $250,000, $350,000, or $500,000 per claim are designed to provide Net (after reinsurance) IBNR. However, statutory accounting also requires an estimate of IBNR before reinsurance.
We first repeated last year’s approach of calculatingt he ceded Auto Liability IBNR as:
Exhibit 1 IBNR (uncapped) minus the capped IBNR’s from Exhibits 3-7
The company’s 2003 change in case reserving procedures means that the 12/03 through 12/09 diagonals in Exhibit 1 are on a different basis than the 12/02 and prior diagonals, and this difference would be concentrated in the reinsurance layer. However, by 12/09 we have sufficient years of development history so that we are not relying on the 12/02 and prior diagonals in our projections.
As shown on the attached Exhibit 23, the ceded IBNR obtained by subtracting the capped triangles from the uncapped triangle is:
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
$ | 1.409 million | | | Average of Last 5 |
$ | 1.382 million | | | Average of Last 3 |
$ | 1.418 million | | | Average of Last 2 |
This range ofprojections is very narrow – so we can say that this approach supports a ceded Auto Liability IBNR of $1.400 million.
As an alternate approach, we have the attached Exhibit 24. This exhibit uses the ceded Auto Liability data from Exhibit 2 as a starting point. We then calculate the ceded loss ratio (ceded losses divided by ceded earned premium) at the $100,000, $200,000, $250,000, $350,000 and $500,000 retention levels. Recall that for accident years through the first portion of 1999, the retention was $100,000 per claim and for accident years from the last portion to 1999 to the first portion of 2002, the retention was $200,000 per claim. In 2006 about half the exposure is at the $250,000 retention and halfis at the $350,000 retention. For 2007-2009 we estimate the exposure is:
22% at $250,000 | | 39% at $350,000 | | 39% at $500,000 | | for 2007 |
20% at $250,000 | | | | 80% at $500,000 | | for 2008 |
21% at $250,000 | | | | 79% at $500,000 | | for 2009 |
Based on these historical ceded loss ratios, we selected a 65% Expected Loss Ratio for the 2008-2009 accident years and half of that loss ratio (32.5%) for the 2007 accident year. We calculated a ceded Auto Liability IBNR of $669,000 on that basis. These calculations are shown as Method 1 on the attached Exhibit 24. In addition, we re-valued the ceded IBNR at year-ends 12/02 through 12/08 based on developments through 12/09. These results are shown at Method 2 on Exhibit 24.
Based on this analysis, we selected a ceded IBNR of $1.400 million for Auto Liability at 12/09. This ceded IBNR was assigned to accident years on a partly judgmental basis.
(Because AIFE has no reinsurance protection on its Cargo and Collision reserves, before-reinsurance reserves for these two lines of business are equal to the company’s after-reinsurance reserves.)
Uncertainty in Our Reserve Projections There is always uncertainty in any projection of loss and LAE reserves.
However, I feel the degree of uncertainty in AIFE’s 12/09 reserves is greater than normal, because of the potential for losses which are large in relation to the company’s size. The company is exposed to Auto Liability claims of up to $500,000 per occurrence. Comparing this worst-case claim with your $3.400 million of Net (after-reinsurance) IBNR for Auto Liability, we see that a single additional $500,000 claim would represent about 15% of your total IBNR. Comparing the worst-case $500,000 with the $6.087 million of Net case loss and LAE reserves and IBNR reserves for Auto Liability, we see that a single additional worst-case claim would represent about 8% of your total loss and LAE reserve. The high percentage impact from a single additional shock loss gives an indication of the uncertainty in the AIFE reserve projections.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
In addition, we note that the proportion of the company’s Auto Liability exposure from the $50,000 deductible policies has increased significantly in recent years. These percentages are:
| | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Percent of Net Auto Liability Premium from $50K deductible policies | | | 17 | % | | | 23 | % | | | 28 | % |
IBNR projections for high-deductible policies are inherently more uncertain than projections for first dollar (or low deductible) business. Because of this additional emerging uncertainty, we have selected a 12/09 Auto Liability IBNR at the top of our recommended range.
Reconciliation of Actuary’s Workpapers to Schedule P As required by NAIC regulations, attached to this report is a worksheet which reconciles my workpapers to the company’s Schedule P. This worksheet shows that the unexplained differences between these two data sources are not material.
Conclusions Our recommended Net (after-reinsurance) and Direct (before-reinsurance) loss and LAE IBNR for AIFE at 12/09 is shown below, allocated to line of business as follows:
Net IBNR | | | Ceded IBNR | | | Direct IBNR | | |
$ | 2,808,000 | | | $ | 1,400,000 | | | $ | 4,208,000 | | Auto Liability |
| 117,000 | | | | | | | | 117,000 | | Excess Liability |
| (75,000 | ) | | | | | | | (75,000 | ) | Collision |
| (50,000 | ) | | | | | | | (50,000 | ) | Cargo |
$ | 2,800,000 | | | $ | 1,400,000 | | | $ | 4,200,000 | | All Lines |
The company’s actual Net all-lines loss and DCC LAE IBNR as shown on Schedule P is $3.517 million. The company’s Net IBNR is therefore $717,000 higher than my recommended IBNR. Including the company’s $3.072 million of Net case reserves and the $234,000 of Adjusting & Other LAE reserves gives the 12/09 Net reserves of $6.823 million.
The company’s Ceded IBNR of $1.400 million is equal to our recommended Ceded IBNR. The company’s Direct IBNR of $4.917 million is therefore higher than our recommended Direct IBNR by the same $717,000 mentioned above. Including the company’s $5.284 million of Direct & Assumed case reserves and the $234,000 of Adjusting & Other LAE reserves gives the 12/09 Direct & Assumed reserves of $10.435 million.
The $717,000 of possible margin in the 12/09 IBNR reserves is about 11% of the company’s $6.823 million of Net reserves. However, this possible margin is equal to only 1.4 additional maximum Net losses under the current reinsurance coverage with its $500,000 attachment point.
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
We therefore conclude that AIFE’s 12/09 IBNR reserves are reasonable – on both a Net and a Direct & Assumed basis.
| Sincerely Yours, | |
| | |
| John Pierce | |
| F.C.A.S. M.A.A.A. M.B.A. | |
John Pierce Consulting Actuary
Methodology Appendix
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange
Example of Calculations Used in Loss Development Method — Step 1
file = APP A eg for IN DOI 1209.xls
sheet = Step 1
| | Paid+Case Loss | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
Years of | | 1 | | | | 0 | | | | 5000 | | | | 6512 | | | | 34178 | | | | 6000 | | | | 15000 | | | | 131873 | | | | 37557 | | | | 86417 | |
Development | | 2 | | | | 0 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31125 | | | | 6321 | | | | 14894 | | | | 121222 | | | | 35057 | | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | n/a | | | | 34130 | | | | 63385 | | | | 137180 | | | | 206148 | | | | 287446 | | | | 303497 | | | | 339086 | | | | 291015 | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | n/a | | | | 13.5 | % | | | 10.3 | % | | | 23.0 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 6.0 | % | | | 41.2 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Paid+Case Loss — as % of ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | 2001 | | | | 2002 | | | | 2003 | | | | 2004 | | | | 2005 | | | | 2006 | | | | 2007 | | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | |
| | 1 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 108.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 108.3 | % | | | 102.5 | % | | | 87.6 | % | | | 105.4 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 2 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 98.7 | % | | | 108.0 | % | | | 87.0 | % | | | 96.9 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
Methodology Appendix
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange
Example of Calculations Used in Loss Development Method — Step 2
file = APP A eg for IN DOI 1209.xls
sheet = Step 2
| | Paid+Case Loss | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
Years of | | 1 | | | | 0 | | | | 5000 | | | | 6512 | | | | 34178 | | | | 6000 | | | | 15000 | | | | 131873 | | | | 37557 | | | | 86417 | |
Development | | 2 | | | | 0 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31125 | | | | 6321 | | | | 14894 | | | | 121222 | | | | 35057 | | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | n/a | | | | 34130 | | | | 63385 | | | | 137180 | | | | 206148 | | | | 287446 | | | | 303497 | | | | 339086 | | | | 291015 | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | n/a | | | | 13.5 | % | | | 10.3 | % | | | 23.0 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 6.0 | % | | | 41.2 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Paid+Case Loss — as % of ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | 2001 | | | | 2002 | | | | 2003 | | | | 2004 | | | | 2005 | | | | 2006 | | | | 2007 | | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | |
| | 1 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 108.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 108.3 | % | | | 102.5 | % | | | 87.6 | % | | | 105.4 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 2 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 98.7 | % | | | 108.0 | % | | | 87.0 | % | | | 96.9 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | To project ultimate loss for 2008 year, proceed as follows: | | | | | |
| | | Average the following: | | 108.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 87.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 96.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | to obtain | | | | 97.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | Divide the reported loss of $35,057 for 2008 at 12/09 by this 97.3% | | | | |
| | | to obtain $36,035 ultimate loss for 2008 year. | | | | | | | |
Methodology Appendix
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange
Example of Calculations Used in Loss Development Method — Step 3
file = APP A eg for IN DOI 1209.xls
sheet = Step 3
| | Paid+Case Loss | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
Years of | | 1 | | | | 0 | | | | 5000 | | | | 6512 | | | | 34178 | | | | 6000 | | | | 15000 | | | | 131873 | | | | 37557 | | | | 86417 | |
Development | | 2 | | | | 0 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31125 | | | | 6321 | | | | 14894 | | | | 121222 | | | | 35057 | | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | 36035 | | | | | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 978 | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | n/a | | | | 34130 | | | | 63385 | | | | 137180 | | | | 206148 | | | | 287446 | | | | 303497 | | | | 339086 | | | | 291015 | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | n/a | | | | 13.5 | % | | | 10.3 | % | | | 23.0 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 6.0 | % | | | 41.2 | % | | | 10.6 | % | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Paid+Case Loss — as % of ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | 2001 | | | | 2002 | | | | 2003 | | | | 2004 | | | | 2005 | | | | 2006 | | | | 2007 | | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | |
| | 1 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 108.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 108.3 | % | | | 102.5 | % | | | 87.6 | % | | | 105.4 | % | | | 104.2 | % | | | | |
| | 2 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 98.7 | % | | | 108.0 | % | | | 87.0 | % | | | 96.9 | % | | | 97.3 | % | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.7 | % | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | To project ultimate loss for 2009 year, proceed as follows: | | | | | | | | | |
| | | Average the following: | | 87.6 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 105.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 104.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | to obtain | | | | 99.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | Divide the reported loss of $86,417 for 2009 year at 12/09 by this 99.1% | | | | | |
| | | to obtain $87,238 ultimate loss for 2009 year. | | | | | |
Methodology Appendix
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange
Example of Calculations Used in Loss Development Method — Step 4
file = APP A eg for IN DOI 1209.xls
sheet = Step 4
| | Paid+Case Loss | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
Years of | | 1 | | | | 0 | | | | 5000 | | | | 6512 | | | | 34178 | | | | 6000 | | | | 15000 | | | | 131873 | | | | 37557 | | | | 86417 | |
Development | | 2 | | | | 0 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31125 | | | | 6321 | | | | 14894 | | | | 121222 | | | | 35057 | | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 777 | | | | 4600 | | | | 6512 | | | | 31550 | | | | 5851 | | | | 17126 | | | | 125154 | | | | 36035 | | | | 87238 | |
IBNR | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 978 | | | | 821 | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | n/a | | | | 34130 | | | | 63385 | | | | 137180 | | | | 206148 | | | | 287446 | | | | 303497 | | | | 339086 | | | | 291015 | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | n/a | | | | 13.5 | % | | | 10.3 | % | | | 23.0 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | | 6.0 | % | | | 41.2 | % | | | 10.6 | % | | | 30.0 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Paid+Case Loss — as % of ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | 2001 | | | | 2002 | | | | 2003 | | | | 2004 | | | | 2005 | | | | 2006 | | | | 2007 | | | | 2008 | | | | 2009 | |
| | 1 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 108.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 108.3 | % | | | 102.5 | % | | | 87.6 | % | | | 105.4 | % | | | 104.2 | % | | | 99.1 | % |
| | 2 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 98.7 | % | | | 108.0 | % | | | 87.0 | % | | | 96.9 | % | | | 97.3 | % | | | | |
| | 3 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
| | 4 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 5 | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate Loss | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % |
IBNR | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.7 | % | | | 0.9 | % |
Exhibit 1
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) |
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=uncappped | Claims Data Is Uncapped | the last 2 LDF’s. |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------------------->
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 556975 | | 377577 | | 329809 | | 645373 | | 768541 | | 1742716 | | 1308398 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1214939 | | 317868 | | | 65182733 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2526010 | | 1495127 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 386782 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1970773 | | 2085193 | | 1321240 | | 1956742 | | 1746089 | | | | | 63658753 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 3048918 | | 2665142 | | 1467638 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 383282 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1430014 | | 1103254 | | 2495156 | | 2921985 | | 2025346 | | 2418030 | | | | | | | 59736196 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 5780825 | | 3383880 | | 2792841 | | 1511561 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 383282 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 1180339 | | 1218632 | | 2700182 | | 1457853 | | 2599816 | | 3166856 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | | 57228595 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 11873981 | | 5778392 | | 3399989 | | 2827288 | | 1516113 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 383282 | | 1087779 | | 776881 | | 1151465 | | 1939611 | | 2854632 | | 1510375 | | 2681425 | | 3576526 | | | | | | | | | | | 54589114 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 13188766 | | 11782522 | | 5852591 | | 3435015 | | 2895896 | | 1611795 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 383282 | | 1064553 | | 776881 | | 1150424 | | 2083969 | | 2849129 | | 2090986 | | 2665924 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 50852139 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1530012 | | 13137943 | | 11801478 | | 6280488 | | 3543331 | | 2868084 | | 1316040 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1060865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2131963 | | 2849130 | | 2109079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 48378473 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11803793 | | 6299882 | | 3550410 | | 2868087 | | 1799321 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1060865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104709 | | 2780054 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46587868 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11803949 | | 6336747 | | 3550410 | | 2867587 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104916 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44832430 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11796510 | | 6336747 | | 3550410 | | 2861720 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43919601 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6336747 | | 3538676 | | 2861721 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43410471 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42443151 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41481333 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one open clm | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40539700 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | for $1MM-plus in 2003 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40105812 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | but don’t adj Uncapped | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152149 | | 2104917 | | 2780192 | | 2070114 | | 2620330 | | 4080546 | | 2144015 | | 2912012 | | 2710895 | | 865332 | | | 67857377 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 1 | | 138 | | -38965 | | -45694 | | 504020 | | 248389 | | 493982 | | 964806 | | 547964 | | $ | 2,674,644 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691873 | | 551144 | | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2378661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 137.4 | % | 87.4 | % | 167.2 | % | 153.6 | % | 121.3 | % | 74.2 | % | 99.1 | | 146.1 | % | 70.8 | % | 101.2 | % | 114.2 | % | 60.4 | % | | 105.2 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium = => | 58.8 | % | 83.7 | % | 88.4 | % | 43.6 | % | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ------------------------------------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 63.9 | % | 29.2 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 42.8 | % | 30.6 | % | 71.7 | % | 32.8 | % | 15.7 | % | 23.2 | % | 37.1 | % | 66,5 | % | 32.1 | % | 31.9 | % | 28.6 | % | 44.8 | % | 36.7 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 69.8 | % | 88.3 | % | 82.6 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 100.9 | % | 47.9 | % | 56.0 | % | 53.8 | % | 36.4 | % | 35.7 | % | 43.1 | % | 75.2 | % | 51.1 | % | 61.6 | % | 67.2 | % | 64.4 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 79.8 | % | 86.2 | % | 93.2 | % | 81.1 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 50.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 66.0 | % | 48.4 | % | 51.4 | % | 53.3 | % | 95.2 | % | 71.6 | % | 94.5 | % | 83.0 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 74.4 | % | 90.7 | % | 95.6 | % | 97,6 | % | 83.5 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 56.3 | % | 96.7 | % | 102,4 | % | 57.9 | % | 97.1 | % | 70.4 | % | 99.2 | % | 77.6 | % | 88.4 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 72.8 | % | 100.6 | % | 90.7 | % | 96.1 | % | 98.8 | % | 83.7 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99,9 | % | 92.1 | % | 102.7 | % | 73.0 | % | 102.3 | % | 87.6 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 90.2 | % | 100.9 | % | 99.9 | % | 91.9 | % | 97.1 | % | 101.2 | % | 89.0 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 99.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 101.0 | % | 101.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.6 | % | 100.1 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.3 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.3 | % | 102.5 | % | 101.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100,0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -1.9 | % | -1.7 | % | 12.4 | % | 11.6 | % | 17.0 | % | 35.6 | % | 63.3 | % | |
Exhibit 2
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file=Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | |
tab=reduce | | |
Excess over 100,000 per loss — LAE prorated
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16957 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 14661 | | 251500 | | 108233 | | 0 | | 95114 | | 8044 | | 884075 | | 591270 | | 23458 | | 164252 | | 452519 | | 0 | | 28627468 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 417933 | | 936573 | | 0 | | 0 | | 182588 | | 16520 | | 76417 | | 108233 | | 0 | | 266693 | | 7747 | | 933867 | | 1198528 | | 211960 | | 900883 | | 693056 | | | | 27713594 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 1115039 | | 359490 | | 919616 | | 60641 | | 0 | | 182588 | | 16520 | | 134737 | | 150597 | | 99290 | | 524215 | | 7747 | | 954002 | | 1814343 | | 784258 | | 1235645 | | | | | | 25019657 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 1774048 | | 1419370 | | 425231 | | 919616 | | 61183 | | 100570 | | 182588 | | 19234 | | 183326 | | 486621 | | 159388 | | 1565047 | | 234525 | | 1009494 | | 2005312 | | 621228 | | | | | | | | 23898959 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 5670412 | | 1752835 | | 1416541 | | 476185 | | 919616 | | 61183 | | 100571 | | 182588 | | 455682 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 872824 | | 1578298 | | 257733 | | 1070569 | | 2470197 | | | | | | | | | | 23008079 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | 5904460 | | 5669750 | | 1889125 | | 1416541 | | 514509 | | 927077 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 872824 | | 1575347 | | 938178 | | 1090100 | | | | | | | | | | | | 20612749 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 505285 | | 5888936 | | 5669750 | | 2336236 | | 1500199 | | 420181 | | 1156293 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 949204 | | 1575347 | | 955367 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19411351 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2356079 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1157967 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 949204 | | 1575347 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18777359 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 949204 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18167829 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18086053 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17923686 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17599963 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17260347 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16701410 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16532239 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Excess over 200,000 per loss — LAE prorated | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 50000 | | 2550 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 680443 | | 487538 | | 0 | | 47643 | | 320102 | | 0 | | 19267632 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 62609 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 2550 | | 0 | | 58105 | | 0 | | 725631 | | 989911 | | 0 | | 685886 | | 327375 | | | | 18765042 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 682412 | | 35871 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 2550 | | 0 | | 321173 | | 0 | | 725631 | | 1433996 | | 244223 | | 954201 | | | | | | 16786953 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 915543 | | 988928 | | 38901 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 19051 | | 1273137 | | 69100 | | 672939 | | 1491641 | | 108791 | | | | | | | | 16333688 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 4092618 | | 885366 | | 987081 | | 20604 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 346066 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | 83329 | | 672939 | | 1839274 | | | | | | | | | | 15764566 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | 4160661 | | 4092618 | | 929645 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | 801205 | | 672939 | | | | | | | | | | | | 13643429 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092618 | | 1360276 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 918530 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | 816006 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12680867 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1380570 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 919244 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12287078 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11938015 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11937301 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11883657 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11787456 | | as or 1998 |
+12 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11684571 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11272032 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11226570 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Excess over 250,000 per loss — LAE prorated | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 435672 | | 0 | | 0 | | 267626 | | 0 | | 16298745 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 2555 | | 0 | | 621513 | | 885602 | | 0 | | 578388 | | 272676 | | | | 15826338 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 526138 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 268396 | | 0 | | 621513 | | 1279563 | | 108576 | | 844066 | | | | | | 14122145 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 717836 | | 830668 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 0 | | 1167313 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 1292575 | | 52 | | | | | | | | 13732289 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 3463398 | | 687924 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 291257 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 1589170 | | | | | | | | | | 13284562 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | 3499245 | | 3463398 | | 687924 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | 736591 | | 617408 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11354561 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463398 | | 1092767 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 799648 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | 750199 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10471222 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 799883 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10181477 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9889232 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9888997 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9855696 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9855696 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9801697 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9396661 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9398017 | | as of 1995 |
Exhibit 2
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @l2/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209)
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | |
tab=reduce | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Excess over 350,000 per loss — LAE prorated | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 331941 | | 0 | | 0 | | 162675 | | 0 | | 11797547 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 676986 | | 0 | | 363391 | | 165744 | | | | 11348884 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 162843 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 1016340 | | 7878 | | 623796 | | | | | | 10200531 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 0 | | 955667 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 1023384 | | 0 | | | | | | | | 9861177 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 181640 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 1205231 | | | | | | | | | | 9518042 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | 607365 | | 514507 | | | | | | | | | | | | 7918923 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | 618585 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7241573 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7056464 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6874824 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 2450720 | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 49968 | | 2450720 | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 49968 | | 2450720 | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Excess over 500,000 per loss — LAE prorated | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 176344 | | 0 | | 0 | | 5248 | | 0 | | 6323243 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 364061 | | 0 | | 149650 | | 5347 | | | | 6159611 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 4512 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 705185 | | 0 | | 293390 | | | | | | 5585770 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 37235 | | 0 | | 638197 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 710603 | | 0 | | | | | | | | 5244646 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17215 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 722757 | | | | | | | | | | 5058398 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | 413525 | | 360155 | | | | | | | | | | | | 3949580 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | 421164 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3584913 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3552929 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 1114310 | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 1080374 | | 1114310 | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 0 | | 1080374 | | 1114310 | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exhibit 3
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability _ BI .and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg:2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, We average |
Tab=max100 | Claims capped at $100,000 per loss – LAE prorated | The last 2 LDF’s |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ------------------> |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 511385 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 310148 | | 305475 | | 269344 | | 329809 | | 550759 | | 760497 | | 858641 | | 717128 | | 659711 | | 668815 | | 762420 | | 317868 | | 36555265 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2108077 | | 558554 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 204194 | | 491557 | | 358727 | | 511158 | | 765736 | | 726587 | | 885093 | | 1036906 | | 886665 | | 1109280 | | 1055859 | | 1053033 | | | | 35945159 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 1933879 | | 2305652 | | 548022 | | 590375 | | 403488 | | 200694 | | 521060 | | 568590 | | 609438 | | 918642 | | 905799 | | 1095507 | | 1541156 | | 1107642 | | 1241088 | | 1182385 | | | | | | 34716539 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 4006777 | | 1964510 | | 2367610 | | 591945 | | 610368 | | 448315 | | 200694 | | 577689 | | 568173 | | 693718 | | 1059244 | | 1135135 | | 1223328 | | 1590322 | | 1161544 | | 1274398 | | | | | | | | 33329636 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 6203569 | | 4025557 | | 1983448 | | 2351103 | | 596497 | | 588385 | | 494462 | | 200694 | | 632097 | | 569610 | | 664844 | | 1066787 | | 1276334 | | 1252642 | | 1610856 | | 1106329 | | | | | | | | | | 31581035 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 7284306 | | 6112772 | | 3963466 | | 2018474 | | 2381387 | | 684718 | | 560894 | | 502255 | | 200694 | | 613761 | | 569610 | | 663803 | | 1211145 | | 1273782 | | 1152808 | | 1575824 | | | | | | | | | | | | 30239390 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1024727 | | 7249007 | | 6131728 | | 3944252 | | 2043132 | | 2447903 | | 659747 | | 564932 | | 506305 | | 200694 | | 610073 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1182759 | | 1273783 | | 1153712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28967122 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6133812 | | 3943803 | | 2036222 | | 2447906 | | 641354 | | 547315 | | 506305 | | 200694 | | 610073 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155505 | | 1204707 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27810509 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6133968 | | 3937996 | | 2036222 | | 2447406 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26664601 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6126529 | | 3937996 | | 2036222 | | 2441539 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25833548 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3937996 | | 2024488 | | 2441540 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25486785 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24843188 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509199 | | 200694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24220986 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | | 23838290 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | | 23573573 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155713 | | 1204816 | | 1153712 | | 1532561 | | 1035483 | | 1180309 | | 1114837 | | 1116140 | | 495504 | | $36,520,373 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 109 | | 0 | | -43263 | | -70846 | | -94089 | | -67548 | | 63107 | | 177636 | | $ (34.892 | ) | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 5OK Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | �� | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 165.6 | % | 131.5 | % | 23.0 | % | 79.0 | % | 64.1 | % | 96.6 | % | 84.4 | % | 52.6 | % | 41.3 | % | 58.0 | % | 37.1 | % | 39.0 | % | 38.7 | % | 47.0 | % | 34.6 | % | 51.2 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium => | | 324 | % | 321 | % | 36.4 | % | 25.0 | % | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED =======> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 74.9 | % | 79.2 | % | 60.8 | % | 17.2 | % | 81.7 | % | 50.8 | % | 53.6 | % | 40.5 | % | 28.5 | % | 45.7 | % | 65.9 | % | 56.0 | % | 69.3 | % | 55.9 | % | 60.0 | % | 68.3 | % | 64.2 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 122.0 | % | 86.4 | % | 86.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 41.4 | % | 101.7 | % | 80.6 | % | 63.0 | % | 76.8 | % | 66.3 | % | 60.3 | % | 76.7 | % | 67.7 | % | 85.6 | % | 94.0. | % | 94.7 | % | 94.3 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 128.0 | % | 95.5 | % | 94.5 | % | 84.9 | % | 107.9 | % | 79.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 85.4 | % | 99.8 | % | 91.6 | % | 79.5 | % | 75.2 | % | 95.0 | % | 100.6 | % | 107.0 | % | 105.1 | % | 106.1 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 143.2 | % | 100.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 97.0 | % | 91.7 | % | 111.5 | % | 88.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.7 | % | 99.7 | % | 104.2 | % | 91.7 | % | 94.2 | % | 106.0 | % | 103.8 | % | 112.2 | % | 108.0 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 132.2 | % | 101.2 | % | 101.3 | % | 98.0 | % | 96.3 | % | 92.4 | % | 107.5 | % | 97.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 103.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 92.3 | % | 105.9 | % | 108.6 | % | 105.1 | % | 106.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 134.6 | % | 101.3 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.7 | % | 97.6 | % | 106.1 | % | 112.5 | % | 98.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.7 | % | 104.8 | % | 105.7 | % | 99.9 | % | 102.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.8 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.9 | % | 100.3 | % | 102.2 | % | 103.2 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.3 | % | 105.7 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -2.8 | % | -6.8 | % | -8.0 | % | -6.1 | % | 5.7 | % | 35.8 | % | | | |
Exhibit 4
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI .and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max200 | Claims capped at $200,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 2 LDF’s. |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ------------------> |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagnol | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 506975 | | 375027 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1062273 | | 820860 | | 683169 | | 785424 | | 894837 | | 317868 | | 45915101 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2463401 | | 677691 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 304194 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 616841 | | 765736 | | 935175 | | 892840 | | 1245142 | | 1095282 | | 1321240 | | 1270856 | | 1418714 | | | | 44893711 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 2366506 | | 2629271 | | 650202 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 300694 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 757485 | | 1017932 | | 1108841 | | 1103254 | | 1769527 | | 1487989 | | 1781123 | | 1463829 | | | | | | 42949243 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 4865282 | | 2394952 | | 2753940 | | 694125 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 300694 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 837124 | | 1199581 | | 1427045 | | 1388753 | | 1926877 | | 1675215 | | 1786835 | | | | | | | | 40894907 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 7781363 | | 4893026 | | 2412908 | | 2806684 | | 698677 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 300694 | | 741713 | | 776881 | | 808250 | | 1284113 | | 1583846 | | 1427046 | | 2008486 | | 1737252 | | | | | | | | | | 38824548 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9028105 | | 7689904 | | 4922946 | | 2447934 | | 2875289 | | 794359 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 300694 | | 723468 | | 776881 | | 807209 | | 1428471 | | 1578343 | | 1289781 | | 1992985 | | | | | | | | | | | | 37208710 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1284322 | | 8977282 | | 7708860 | | 4920212 | | 2556250 | | 2847477 | | 897510 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 300694 | | 719780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1476465 | | 1578344 | | 1293073 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 35697606 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7710970 | | 4919312 | | 2563329 | | 2847480 | | 880077 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 300694 | | 719780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449211 | | 1509268 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34300790 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7711126 | | 4909976 | | 2563329 | | 2846980 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449418 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32894415 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7703687 | | 4909976 | | 2563329 | | 2841113 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31982300 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4909976 | | 2551595 | | 2841114 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31526814 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30655695 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29796762 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | | 29267668 | | asof 1996 |
+14 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | | 28879242 | | asof 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449419 | | 1509377 | | 1293073 | | 1950898 | | 1628831 | | 1772510 | | 1526101 | | 1797942 | | 627973 | | 46501984 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 109 | | 0 | | -42087 | | -108421 | | -14325 | | 62272 | | 379228 | | 310105 | | $ 586,883 | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1l61154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 34.4 | % | 93.2 | % | 87.4 | % | 117.4 | % | 105.8 | % | 65.8 | % | 46.3 | % | 73.8 | % | 58.3 | % | 58.5 | % | 53.0 | % | 75.7 | % | 43.8 | % | 68.0 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium => | | 48.6 | % | 43.9 | % | 58.6 | % | 31.7 | % | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ----------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 64.3 | % | 595 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 54.6 | % | 45.1 | % | 65.3 | % | 46.4 | % | 22.8 | % | 42.8 | % | 59.4 | % | 54.5 | % | 50.4 | % | 38.5 | % | 51.5 | % | 49.8 | % | 50.6 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 96.8 | % | 86.7 | % | 76.3 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 101.2 | % | 70.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 76.3 | % | 52.8 | % | 62.0 | % | 69.0 | % | 63.8 | % | 67.2 | % | 74.5 | % | 83.3 | % | 78.9 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 102.8 | % | 92.7 | % | 92.6 | % | 73.2 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 74.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 93.6 | % | 70.2 | % | 73.5 | % | 85.3 | % | 90.7 | % | 91.4 | % | 100.5 | % | 95.9 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 113.9 | % | 98.4 | % | 93.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 78.2 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 82.9 | % | 96.7 | % | 103.5 | % | 82.8 | % | 94.5 | % | 107.4 | % | 98.8 | % | 102.8 | % | 100.8 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 106.8 | % | 101.0 | % | 99.0 | % | 94.6 | % | 98.8 | % | 78.7 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 103.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 88.6 | % | 104.9 | % | 110.4 | % | 103.0 | % | 106.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 107.4 | % | 10l..3 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.6 | % | 95.9 | % | 101.2 | % | 89.4 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.6 | % | 104.6 | % | 99.7 | % | 102.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.8 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.3 | % | 101.1 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.9 | % | 104.6 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100,0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U1timate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -2.2 | % | -6.7 | % | -0.8 | % | 4.1 | % | 21.1 | % | 49.4 | % | | | |
Exhibit 5
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, We average |
tab=max250 | Claims capped at $250,000 per loss – LAE prorated | The last 2 LDF’s |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ------------------> | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 556975 | | 377577 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1125308 | | 872726 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 947313 | | 317868 | | 48883988 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2526010 | | 728781 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 354193 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 990725 | | 892840 | | 1349260 | | 1199591 | | 1321240 | | 1378354 | | 1473413 | | | | 47832415 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 2522780 | | 2665142 | | 701292 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 350693 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1161618 | | 1103254 | | 1873645 | | 1642422 | | 1916770 | | 1573964 | | | | | | 45614051 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 5062989 | | 2553212 | | 2792841 | | 745215 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 350694 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 888121 | | 1218632 | | 1532869 | | 1457853 | | 1982408 | | 1874281 | | 1895574 | | | | | | | | 43496306 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 8410583 | | 5090468 | | 2570677 | | 2827288 | | 749766 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 350694 | | 796522 | | 776881 | | 859247 | | 1348214 | | 1689522 | | 1510375 | | 2064017 | | 1987356 | | | | | | | | | | 41304552 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9689521 | | 8319124 | | 5164667 | | 2605703 | | 2895896 | | 845448 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 350694 | | 778322 | | 776881 | | 858206 | | 1492572 | | 1684019 | | 1354395 | | 2048516 | | | | | | | | | | | | 39497578 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1379577 | | 9638698 | | 8338080 | | 5187720 | | 2714019 | | 2868084 | | 1016392 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 350694 | | 774634 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1540566 | | 1684020 | | 1358880 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37907251 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8340203 | | 5185704 | | 2721098 | | 2868087 | | 999438 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 350694 | | 774634 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513312 | | 1614944 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 36406391 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8340359 | | 5222569 | | 2721098 | | 2867587 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513519 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34943198 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8332920 | | 5222569 | | 2721098 | | 2861720 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34030604 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5222569 | | 2709364 | | 2861721 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33554776 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32587456 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 350694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31679636 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | 31143039 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | 30707795 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U1timate | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513520 | | 1615055 | | 1358880 | | 2008940 | | 1858296 | | 1899949 | | 1663207 | | 1933434 | | 641611 | | 49592847 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 111 | | 0 | | -39576 | | -129060 | | 4375 | | 89243 | | 460021 | | 323743 | | $ 708,859 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 40.1 | % | 100.3 | % | 87.4 | % | 124.8 | % | 110.5 | % | 70.4 | % | 48.1 | % | 76.0 | % | 66.6 | % | 62.8 | % | 57.8 | % | 81.4 | % | 44.8 | % | 72.3 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium => | | 52.1 | % | 47.8 | % | 63.1 | % | 32.3 | % | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ----------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 63.9 | % | 52.3 | % | 54.7. | % | 14.4 | % | 46.8 | % | 41.9 | % | 71.7 | % | 43.9 | % | 21.8 | % | 40.0 | % | 56.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 47.0 | % | 36.0 | % | 50.1 | % | 49.0 | % | 49.5 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 91.2 | % | 88.3 | % | 72.2 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 101.0 | % | 65.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 72.0 | % | 50.6 | % | 61.3 | % | 65.7 | % | 67.2 | % | 64.6 | % | 69.5 | % | 82.9 | % | 76.2 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 96.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 93.2 | % | 69.5 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 69.4 | % | 93.1 | % | 88.4 | % | 67.3 | % | 71.9 | % | 8U | % | 93.3 | % | 88.4 | % | 100.9 | % | 94.6 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 105.3 | % | 96.3 | % | 94.2 | % | 97.6 | % | 73.8 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 77.1 | % | 96.7 | % | 103.3 | % | 80.5 | % | 94.9 | % | 107.3 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.9 | % | 99.8 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 99.4 | % | 100.9 | % | 96.8 | % | 94.9 | % | 98.8 | % | 74.3 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 89.1 | % | 104.6 | % | 111.l | % | 102.7 | % | 106.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 100.0 | % | 101.2 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.2 | % | 962 | % | 101.2 | % | 83.8 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.6 | % | 104.3 | % | 99.7 | % | 102.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.7 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.7 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.8 | % | 104.3 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U1timate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 00.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -2.0 | % | -6.9 | % | 0.2 | % | 5.4 | % | 23.8 | % | 50.5 | % | | | |
Exhibit 6
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max350 | Claims capped at $350,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 2 LDF’s. |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ---------------------------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1228209 | | 976457 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1052264 | | 317868 | | 53385186 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1456266 | | 1408207 | | 1321240 | | 1593351 | | 1580345 | | | | 52309869 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1267171 | | 1103254 | | 1980651 | | 1905645 | | 2017468 | | 1794234 | | | | | | 49535665 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 990114 | | 1218632 | | 1744515 | | 1457853 | | 2085309 | | 2143472 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 906139 | | 776881 | | 961240 | | 1465257 | | 1900875 | | 1510375 | | 2166918 | | 2371295 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 601894 | | 383282 | | 888029 | | 776881 | | 960199 | | 1609615 | | 1895372 | | 1483621 | | 2151417 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 884341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1657609 | | 1895373 | | 1490494 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1135154 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 884341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630355 | | 1826297 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2867587 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630562 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 2953019 | | 2861720 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 5563951 | | 2941285 | | 2861721 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2360605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2360605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630563 | | 1826414 | | 1490494 | | 2116344 | | 2327954 | | 1989021 | | 1957815 | | 2138335 | | 692822 | | 54496813 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 117 | | 0 | | -35073 | | -43341 | | 93395 | | 163581 | | 557990 | | 374954 | | ###### | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 114.5 | % | 87.4 | % | 139.6 | % | 119.0 | % | 79.7 | % | 53.4 | % | 80.0 | % | 83.4 | % | 65.7 | % | 68.0 | % | 90.1 | % | 48.4 | % | 79.8 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | 54.6 | % | 56.3 | % | 69.7 | % | 34.9 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20.2 | % | 35.4 | % | 51.6 | % | 58.0 | % | 41.9 | % | 34.3 | % | 42.6 | % | 49.2 | % | 45.9 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 64.4 | % | 47.0 | % | 54.4 | % | 59.9 | % | 68.8 | % | 60.5 | % | 66.4 | % | 81.4 | % | 73.9 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.1 | % | 79.0 | % | 62.4 | % | 69.4 | % | 74.0 | % | 93.6 | % | 81.9 | % | 101.4 | % | 91.6 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 67.5 | % | 96.7 | % | 102.9 | % | 74.7 | % | 95.5 | % | 97.8 | % | 98.5 | % | 92.1 | % | 95.3 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 89.9 | % | 104.1 | % | 101.3 | % | 102.4 | % | 101.9 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.7 | % | 103.8 | % | 99.5 | % | 101.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.7 | % | 103.8 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -1.7 | % | -1.9 | % | 4.7 | % | 8.4 | % | 26.1 | % | 54.1 | % | |
Exhibit 7
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max500 | Claims capped at $500,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 2 LDF’s |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1382561 | | 1132054 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1209691 | | 317868 | | 58859490 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1610618 | | 1721132 | | 1321240 | | 1807092 | | 1740742 | | | | 57499142 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1425502 | | 1103254 | | 2135003 | | 2216800 | | 2025346 | | 2124640 | | | | | | 54150426 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 751499 | | 1143104 | | 1218632 | | 2061985 | | 1457853 | | 2239661 | | 2456253 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1070564 | | 776881 | | 1114230 | | 1640822 | | 2217904 | | 1510375 | | 2321270 | | 2853769 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 1052589 | | 776881 | | 1113189 | | 1785180 | | 2212401 | | 1677461 | | 2305769 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1048901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1833174 | | 2212402 | | 1687915 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1048901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1805920 | | 2143326 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1806127 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2861720 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 3144403 | | 2861721 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2360605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2360605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | =>cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114914 | | 1806128 | | 2143450 | | 1687915 | | 2276207 | | 2981038 | | 2097044 | | 2485768 | | 2565528 | | 788117 | | 60814903 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 1 | | 124 | | 0 | | -29562 | | 127269 | | 201418 | | 361128 | | 824786 | | 470249 | | ###### | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | �� | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 135.9 | % | 87.4 | % | 161.8 | % | 131.8 | % | 93.5 | % | 60.5 | % | 86.1 | % | 106.8 | % | 69.3 | % | 86.4 | % | 108.1 | % | 55.0 | % | 91.5 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | 57.5 | % | 71.5 | % | 83.7 | % | 39.7 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -----> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30.1 | % | 45.5 | % | 60.7 | % | 38.0 | % | 32.6 | % | 33.5 | % | 47.2 | % | 40.3 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42.4 | % | 46.3 | % | 52.9 | % | 70.8 | % | 57.7 | % | 63.0 | % | 72.7 | % | 67.9 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 68.2 | % | 56.4 | % | 66.5 | % | 65.4 | % | 93.8 | % | 74.4 | % | 96.6 | % | 85.5 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 96.7 | % | 102.5 | % | 67.5 | % | 96.2 | % | 86.4 | % | 98.4 | % | 82.4 | % | 90.4 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 90.8 | % | 103.5 | % | 89.5 | % | 102.0 | % | 95.7 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.8 | % | 103.2 | % | 99.4 | % | 101.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.5 | % | 103.2 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -1.3 | % | 4.3 | % | 9.6 | % | 14.5 | % | 32.1 | % | 59.7 | % | |
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 2 LDF's. | |
page 1 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/01 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/01 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25255044 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 41116 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | . 568590 | | | | 569610 | | | | 1020 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 723327 | | | | 776881 | | | | 53554 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 946650 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 1311702 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
5 (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) = | | | 26886337 | | | | 28279576 | | | | 1393240 | |
Note 1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (5) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/02 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/02 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25316403 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -20243 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 568173 | | | | 569610 | | | | 1437 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 751499 | | | | 776881 | | | | 25382 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1523221 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 735131 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1509377 | | | | 863504 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1615055 | | | | 969182 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
7 (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6) = | | | 28191165 | | | | 29868212 | | | | 1677048 | |
Note 1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (7) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (7) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/03 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/03 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25298068 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -1908 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1855056 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 403296 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 935175 | | | | 1509377 | | | | 574202 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 990725 | | | | 1615055 | | | | 624330 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003 | | | 768541 | | | | 1358880 | | | | 590339 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 29623566 | | | | 31227092 | | | | 1603526 | |
Note l: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/04 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/04 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2007831 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 250521 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1108841 | | | | 1509377 | | | | 400536 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1161618 | | | | 1615055 | | | | 453437 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2004 | | | 2018148 | | | | 3367820 | | | | 1349672 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 31195625 | | | | 33236032 | | | | 2040407 | |
Note l: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Exhibit 8
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 2 LDF's. | |
page 2 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/05 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/05 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2091322 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 167030 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1427045 | | | | 1509377 | | | | 82332 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1532869 | | | | 1615055 | | | | 82186 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 3325240 | | | | 5226116 | | | | 1900876 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 32944197 | | | | 35094328 | | | | 2150131 | |
Note l: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/06 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/06 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2237404 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 20948 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1583846 | | | | 1509377 | | | | -74469 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1689522 | | | | 1615055 | | | | -74467 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 4531089 | | | | 5226116 | | | | 695027 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 1899949 | | | | 1216780 | |
9 for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 1989021 | | | | 1305852 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
10 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9) = | | | 35135988 | | | | 37038813 | | | | 1902825 | |
Note l: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note 3: The 2006 year is included in the Line (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/07 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/07 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2285398 | | | | 2258352 | | | | -27046 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578343 | | | | 1509377 | | | | -68966 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684019 | | | | 1615055 | | | | -68964 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5135205 | | | | 5226116 | | | | 90911 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 1899949 | | | | 578709 | |
9 for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 1989021 | | | | 667781 | |
10 for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 1663207 | | | | 830140 | |
11 for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 1957815 | | | | 1124748 | |
12 for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 2485768 | | | | 1652701 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
13 (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(+.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(11)+.39*(12)= | | | 37253733 | | | | 39137716 | | | | 1883983 | |
Note 1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note 3: The 2006 year is included in the Line (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note 3: The 2007 year is included in the Line (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
| Exhibit 8 | |
| American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009 | |
| Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability | |
file = Lsdv09 avg2.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 2 LDF's. | |
Page 3 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/08 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/08 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2258144 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 208 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578344 | | | | 1509377 | | | | -68967 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684020 | | | | 1615055 | | | | -68965 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5292693 | | | | 5226116 | | | | -66577 | |
8 | | for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1916770 | | | | 1899949 | | | | -16821 | |
9 | | for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 2017468 | | | | 1989021 | | | | -28447 | |
10 | | for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 1378354 | | | | 1663207 | | | | 284853 | |
11 | | for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 1593351 | | | | 1957815 | | | | 364464 | |
12 | | for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 1807092 | | | | 2485768 | | | | 678676 | |
13 | | for $250K triangle for 2008 | | | 947313 | | | | 1933434 | | | | 986121 | |
14 | | for $500K triangle for 2008 | | | 1209691 | | | | 2565528 | | | | 1355837 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
15 | | (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(+.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(11)+.39*(12)+.2*(13)+.8*(14) = | | | 39983405 | | | | 41576825 | | | | 1593420 | |
Note 1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note 2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note 3: The 2006 year is included in the Line (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note 3: The 2007 year is included in the Line (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
Note 4: The 2008 year is included in the Line (13) total as 20% of the $250K version and 80% of $500K version.
Exhibit 1
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab = uncapped | Claims Data Is Uncapped | the last 3 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------> |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 556975 | | 377577 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1742716 | | 1308398 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1214939 | | 317868 | | 65182733 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2526010 | | 1495127 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 386782 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1970773 | | 2085193 | | 1321240 | | 1956742 | | 1746089 | | | | 63658753 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 3048918 | | 2665142 | | 1457638 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 383282 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1430014 | | 1103254 | | 2495158 | | 2921985 | | 2025346 | | 2418030 | | | | | | 59736195 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 5780825 | | 3383880 | | 2792841 | | 1511561 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 383282 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 1180339 | | 1218632 | | 2700182 | | 1457853 | | 2599816 | | 3166856 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 57228595 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 11873981 | | 5778392 | | 3399989 | | 2827288 | | 1516113 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 383282 | | 1087779 | | 776881 | | 1151465 | | 1939611 | | 2854632 | | 1510375 | | 2681425 | | 3576526 | | | | | | | | | | 54589114 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 13188766 | | 11782522 | | 5852591 | | 3435015 | | 2895896 | | 1611795 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 383282 | | 1064553 | | 776881 | | 1150424 | | 2083969 | | 2849129 | | 2090986 | | 2665924 | | | | | | | | | | | | 50852139 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1530012 | | 13137943 | | 11801478 | | 6280488 | | 3543331 | | 2168084 | | 1816040 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1060865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2131963 | | 2849130 | | 2109079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 48378473 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11803793 | | 6299882 | | 3550410 | | 2868087 | | 1799321 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1060865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104709 | | 2780054 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46587868 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11803949 | | 6336747 | | 3550410 | | 2867587 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104916 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44832430 | | as or 2001 |
+9 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11796510 | | 6336747 | | 3550410 | | 2861720 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43919601 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6336747 | | 3538676 | | 2861721 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43410471 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42443151 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41481333 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one open cltn | | | | | | | | | | 40539700 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | for $1MM-plus in 2003 | | | | | | | | | | 40105812 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | but don't adj Uncapped | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104917 | | 2780146 | | 2082930 | | 2649384 | | 3881893 | | 2277486 | | 2807528 | | 2887287 | | 937220 | | 67977414 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 1 | | 92 | | -26149 | | -16540 | | 305367 | | 381860 | | 389498 | | 1141198 | | 619352 | | 27944681 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 137.4 | % | 87.4 | % | 167.2 | % | 153.6 | % | 121.3 | % | 74.6 | % | 100.2 | % | 139.0 | % | 75.2 | % | 97.5 | % | 121.6 | % | 65.4 | % | 105.7 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | 62.5 | % | 80.7 | % | 94.2 | % | 47.2 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 63.9 | % | 29.2 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 42.8 | % | 30.6 | % | 71.7 | % | 32.8 | % | 15.7 | % | 23.2 | % | 36.9 | % | 65.8 | % | 33.7 | % | 30.0 | % | 29.7 | % | 42.1 | % | 33.9 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 69.8 | % | 88.3 | % | 82.6 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 100.9 | % | 47.9 | % | 56.0 | % | 53.8 | % | 36.4 | % | 35.7 | % | 42.9 | % | 74.4 | % | 53.7 | % | 58.0 | % | 69.7 | % | 60.5 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 79.8 | % | 86.2 | % | 93.2 | % | 81.1 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 50.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 66.0 | % | 48.4 | % | 51.4 | % | 53.0 | % | 94.2 | % | 75.3 | % | 88.9 | % | 86.1 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 74.4 | % | 90.7 | % | 95.6 | % | 97.6 | % | 83.5 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 56.3 | % | 96.7 | % | 102.4 | % | 57.9 | % | 97.1 | % | 70.0 | % | 98.1 | % | 81.6 | % | 83.2 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 72.8 | % | 100.6 | % | 90.7 | % | 96.1 | % | 98.8 | % | 83.7 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 92.1 | % | 102.7 | % | 72.5 | % | 101.2 | % | 92.1 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 90.2 | % | 100.9 | % | 99.9 | % | 91.9 | % | 97.1 | % | 101.2 | % | 89.0 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 99.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.6 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.6 | % | 100.1 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.3 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.3 | % | 102.5 | % | 101.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | %. | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -1.3 | % | -0.6 | % | 7.9 | % | 16.8 | % | 13.9 | % | 39.5 | % | 66.1 | % | |
Exhibit 3
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab = max100 | Claims capped at $100,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 3 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves -------> | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 511385 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 310148 | | 305475 | | 269344 | | 329809 | | 550759 | | 760497 | | 858641 | | 717128 | | 659711 | | 668815 | | 762420 | | 317868 | | | 36555265 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2108077 | | 558554 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 204194 | | 491557 | | 358727 | | 511158 | | 765736 | | 726587 | | 885093 | | 1036906 | | 886665 | | 1109280 | | 1055859 | | 1053033 | | | | | 35945159 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 1933879 | | 2305652 | | 548022 | | 590375 | | 403488 | | 200694 | | 521060 | | 568590 | | 609438 | | 918642 | | 905799 | | 1095507 | | 1541156 | | 1107642 | | 1241088 | | 1182385 | | | | | | | 34716539 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 4006777 | | 1964510 | | 2367610 | | 591945 | | 610368 | | 448315 | | 200694 | | 577689 | | 568173 | | 693718 | | 1059244 | | 1135135 | | 1223328 | | 1590322 | | 1161544 | | 1274398 | | | | | | | | | 33329636 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 6203569 | | 4025557 | | 1983448 | | 2351103 | | 596497 | | 588385 | | 494462 | | 200694 | | 632097 | | 569610 | | 664844 | | 1066787 | | 1276334 | | 1252642 | | 1610856 | | 1106329 | | | | | | | | | | | 31581035 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 7284306 | | 6112772 | | 3963466 | | 2018474 | | 2381387 | | 684718 | | 560894 | | 502255 | | 200694 | | 613761 | | 569610 | | 663803 | | 1211145 | | 1273782 | | 1152808 | | 1575824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30239390 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1024727 | | 7249007 | | 6131728 | | 3944252 | | 2043132 | | 2447903 | | 659747 | | 564932 | | 506305 | | 200694 | | 610073 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1182759 | | 1273783 | | 1153712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28967122 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6133812 | | 3943803 | | 2036222 | | 2447906 | | 641354 | | 547315 | | 506305 | | 200694 | | 610073 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155505 | | 1204707 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27810509 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6133968 | | 3937996 | | 2036222 | | 2447406 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26664601 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6126529 | | 3937996 | | 2036222 | | 2441539 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25833548 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3937996 | | 2024488 | | 2441540 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25486785 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24843188 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509199 | | 200694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24220986 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | 23838290 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | 23573573 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155712 | | 1204771 | | 1153712 | | 1522803 | | 1036223 | | 1185259 | | 1133973 | | 1160290 | | 528755 | | | 36612804 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 72 | | 0 | | -53021 | | -70106 | | -89139 | | -48412 | | 107257 | | 210887 | | $ | 57,539 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 165.6 | % | 131.5 | % | 23.0 | % | 79.0 | % | 64.1 | % | 96.6 | % | 84.4 | % | 52.6 | % | 41.3 | % | 57.6 | % | 37.1 | % | 39.2 | % | 39.4 | % | 48.9 | % | 36.9 | % | | 51.6 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | 32.5 | % | 32.6 | % | 37.8 | % | 26.7 | % | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ----------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 74.9 | % | 79.2 | % | 60.8 | % | 17.2 | % | 81.7 | % | 50.8 | % | 53.6 | % | 40.5 | % | 28.5 | % | 45.7 | % | 65.9 | % | 56.4 | % | 69.2 | % | 55.7 | % | 59.0 | % | 65.7 | % | 60.1 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 122.0 | % | 86.4 | % | 86.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 41.4 | % | 101.7 | % | 80.6 | % | 63.0 | % | 76.8 | % | 66.3 | % | 60.3 | % | 76.7 | % | 68.1 | % | 85.6 | % | 93.6 | % | 93.1 | % | 90.8 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 128.0 | % | 95.5 | % | 94.5 | % | 84.9 | % | 107.9 | % | 79.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 85.4 | % | 99.8 | % | 91.6 | % | 79.5 | % | 75.2 | % | 95.0 | % | 101.2 | % | 106.9 | % | 104.7 | % | 104.3 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 143.2 | % | 100.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 97.0 | % | 91.7 | % | 111.5 | % | 88.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.7 | % | 99.7 | % | 104.2 | % | 91.7 | % | 94.2 | % | 106.0 | % | 104.4 | % | 112.1 | % | 107.5 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 132.2 | % | 101.2 | % | 101.3 | % | 98.0 | % | 96.3 | % | 92.4 | % | 107.5 | % | 97.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 103.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 92.3 | % | 105.9 | % | 108.6 | % | 105.8 | % | 106.8 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 134.6 | % | 101.3 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.7 | % | 97.6 | % | 106.1 | % | 102.5 | % | 98.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.7 | % | 104.8 | % | 105.7 | % | 99.9 | % | 103.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.8 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.9 | % | 100.3 | % | 102.2 | % | 103.2 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.3 | % | 105.7 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -3.5 | % | -6.8 | % | -7.5 | % | -4.3 | % | 9.2 | % | 39.9 | % | |
Exhibit 4
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab = max200 | Claims capped at $200,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 3 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE pins Case Reserves --------------------------> | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 506975 | | 375027 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1062273 | | 820360 | | 683169 | | 785424 | | 894837 | | 317868 | | 45915101 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2463401 | | 677691 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 304194 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 616841 | | 765736 | | 935175 | | 892840 | | 1245142 | | 1095282 | | 1321240 | | 1270856 | | 1418714 | | | | 44893711 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 2366506 | | 2629271 | | 650202 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 300694 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 757485 | | 1017932 | | 1108841 | | 1103254 | | 1769527 | | 1487989 | | 1781123 | | 1463829 | | | | | | 42949243 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 4865282 | | 2394952 | | 2753940 | | 694125 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 300694 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 837124 | | 1199581 | | 1427045 | | 1388753 | | 1926877 | | 1675215 | | 1786835 | | | | | | | | 40894907 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 7781363 | | 4893026 | | 2412908 | | 2806684 | | 698677 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 300694 | | 741713 | | 776881 | | 808250 | | 1284113 | | 1583846 | | 1427046 | | 2008486 | | 1737252 | | | | | | | | | | 38824548 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9028105 | | 7689904 | | 4922946 | | 2447934 | | 2875289 | | 794359 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 300694 | | 723468 | | 776881 | | 807209 | | 1428471 | | 1578343 | | 1289781 | | 1992985 | | | | | | | | | | | | 37208710 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1284322 | | 8977282 | | 7708860 | | 4920212 | | 2556250 | | 2847477 | | 897510 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 300694 | | 719780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1476465 | | 1578344 | | 1293073 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 35697606 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7710970 | | 4919312 | | 2563329 | | 2847480 | | 880077 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 300694 | | 719780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449211 | | 1509268 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34300790 | | as or 2002 |
+8 | | I284322 | | 8906677 | | 7711126 | | 4909976 | | 2563329 | | 2846980 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449418 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32894415 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7703687 | | 4909976 | | 2563329 | | 2841113 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31982300 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4909976 | | 2551595 | | 2841114 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31526814 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30655695 | | as or 1998 |
+12 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 300694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29796762 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | 29267668 | | as or 1996 |
+14 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | 28879242 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449418 | | 1509340 | | 1293073 | | 1974087 | | 1643881 | | 1746582 | | 1556535 | | 1900730 | | 697829 | | 46717336 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 72 | | 0 | | -18898 | | -93371 | | -40253 | | 92706 | | 482016 | | 379961 | | $ 802,235 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 34.4 | % | 93.2 | % | 87.4 | % | 117.4 | % | 105.8 | % | 65.8 | % | 46.3 | % | 74.7 | % | 58.9 | % | 57.7 | % | 54.1 | % | 80.1 | % | 48.7 | % | 68.9 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | | 47.9 | % | 44.7 | % | 62.0 | % | 35.2 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ---------------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 64.3 | % | 59.5 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 54.6 | % | 45.1 | % | 65.3 | % | 46.4 | % | 22.8 | % | 42.8 | % | 59.4 | % | 53.8 | % | 49.9 | % | 39.1 | % | 50.5 | % | 47.1 | % | 45.6 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 96.8 | % | 86.7 | % | 76.3 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 101.2 | % | 70.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 76.3 | % | 52.8 | % | 62.0 | % | 69.0 | % | 63.1 | % | 66.6 | % | 75.6 | % | 81.6 | % | 74.6 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 102.8 | % | 92.7 | % | 92.6 | % | 73.2 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 74.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 93.6 | % | 70.2 | % | 73.5 | % | 85.3 | % | 89.6 | % | 90.5 | % | 102.0 | % | 94.0 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 113.9 | % | 98.4 | % | 93.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 78.2 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 82.9 | % | 96.7 | % | 103.5 | % | 82.8 | % | 94.5 | % | 107.4 | % | 97.6 | % | 101.9 | % | 102.3 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 106.8 | % | 101.0 | % | 99.0 | % | 94.6 | % | 98.8 | % | 78.7 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 103.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 88.6 | % | 104.9 | % | 110.4 | % | 101.7 | % | 105.7 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 107.4 | % | 101.3 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.6 | % | 95.9 | % | 101.2 | % | 89.4 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.6 | % | 104.6 | % | 99.7 | % | 101.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.8 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.3 | % | 101.1 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.9 | % | 104.6 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -1.0 | % | -5.7 | % | -2.3 | % | 6.0 | % | 25.4 | % | 54.4 | % | |
Exhibit 5
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Ladv09 avg3.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab=max250 | Claims capped at $250,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 3 LDF’s. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ----------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 556975 | | 377577 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1125308 | | 872726 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 947313 | | 317868 | | | 48883988 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2526010 | | 728781 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 354193 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 990725 | | 892840 | | 1349260 | | 1199591 | | 1321240 | | 1378354 | | 1473413 | | | | | 47832415 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 2522780 | | 2665142 | | 701292 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 350693 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1161618 | | 1103254 | | 1873645 | | 1642422 | | 1916770 | | 1573964 | | | | | | | 45614051 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 5062989 | | 2553212 | | 2792841 | | 745215 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 350694 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 888121 | | 1218632 | | 1532869 | | 1457853 | | 1982408 | | 1874281 | | 1895574 | | | | | | | | | 43496306 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 8410583 | | 5090468 | | 2570677 | | 2827288 | | 749766 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 350694 | | 796522 | | 776881 | | 859247 | | 1348214 | | 1689522 | | 1510375 | | 2064017 | | 1987356 | | | | | | | | | | | 41304552 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9689521 | | 8319124 | | 5164667 | | 2605703 | | 2895896 | | 845448 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 350694 | | 778322 | | 776881 | | 858206 | | 1492572 | | 1684019 | | 1354395 | | 2048516 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39497578 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1379577 | | 9638698 | | 8338080 | | 5187720 | | 2714019 | | 2868084 | | 1016392 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 350694 | | 774634 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1540566 | | 1684020 | | 1358880 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37907251 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8340203 | | 5185704 | | 2721098 | | 2868087 | | 999438 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 350694 | | 774634 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513312 | | 1614944 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 36406391 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8340359 | | 5222569 | | 2721098 | | 2867587 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513519 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34943198 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8332920 | | 5222569 | | 2721098 | | 2861720 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34030604 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5222569 | | 2709364 | | 2861721 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33554776 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32587456 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2850605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 350694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31679636 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | 31143039 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333394 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | 30707795 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ==> cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513519 | | 1615018 | | 1358880 | | 2031194 | | 1878541 | | 1866611 | | 1672287 | | 2036378 | | 717346 | | | 49789730 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 74 | | 0 | | -17322 | | -108815 | | -28963 | | 98323 | | 562965 | | 399478 | | $ | 905,742 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | | 40572252 | | |
Coded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 40.1 | % | 100.3 | % | 87.4 | % | 124.8 | % | 110.5 | % | 70.4 | % | 48.7 | % | 76.8 | % | 67.3 | % | 61.7 | % | 58.1 | % | 85.8 | % | 50.1 | % | | 73.1 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | | 51.2 | % | 48.1 | % | 66.4 | % | 36.2 | % | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -----------> | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 63.9 | % | 52.3 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 46.8 | % | 41.9 | % | 71.7 | % | 43.9 | % | 21.8 | % | 40.0 | % | 56.6 | % | 55.4 | % | 46.5 | % | 36.6 | % | 49.8 | % | 46.5 | % | 44.3 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 91.2 | % | 88.3 | % | 72.2 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 101.0 | % | 65.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 72.0 | % | 50.6 | % | 61.3 | % | 65.7 | % | 66.4 | % | 63.9 | % | 70.8 | % | 82.4 | % | 72.4 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 96.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 93.2 | % | 69.5 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 69.4 | % | 93.1 | % | 88.4 | % | 67.3 | % | 71.9 | % | 81.2 | % | 92.2 | % | 87.4 | % | 102.7 | % | 94.1 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 105.3 | % | 96.3 | % | 94.2 | % | 97.6 | % | 73.8 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 77.1 | % | 96.7 | % | 103.3 | % | 80.5 | % | 94.9 | % | 107.3 | % | 97.6 | % | 99.8 | % | 101.6 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 99.4 | % | 100.9 | % | 96.8 | % | 94.9 | % | 93.8 | % | 74.3 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 89.1 | % | 104.6 | % | 111.1 | % | 101.6 | % | 105.8 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 100.0 | % | 101.2 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.2 | % | 96.2 | % | 101.2 | % | 83.8 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.6 | % | 104.3 | % | 99.7 | % | 100.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.7 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.7 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.8 | % | 104.3 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100 0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.9 | % | -5.8 | % | -1.6 | % | 5.9 | % | 27.6 | % | 55.7 | % | |
Exhibit 6
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab=max350 | Claims capped at $350,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 3 LDF’s. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ---------------------------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1228209 | | 976457 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1052264 | | 317868 | | 53385186 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1456266 | | 1408207 | | 1321240 | | 1593351 | | 1580345 | | | | 52309869 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1267171 | | 1103254 | | 1980651 | | 1905645 | | 2017468 | | 1794234 | | | | | | 49535665 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 990114 | | 1218632 | | 1744515 | | 1457853 | | 2085309 | | 2143472 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 906139 | | 776881 | | 961240 | | 1465257 | | 1900875 | | 1510375 | | 2166918 | | 2371295 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 601894 | | 383282 | | 888029 | | 776881 | | 960199 | | 1609615 | | 1895372 | | 1483621 | | 2151417 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 884341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1657609 | | 1895373 | | 1490494 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1135154 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 884341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630355 | | 1826297 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2867587 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630562 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 2953019 | | 2861720 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 5563951 | | 2941285 | | 2861721 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630562 | | 1826375 | | 1490494 | | 2136943 | | 2318618 | | 1975709 | | 1943293 | | 2261930 | | 769235 | | 54680208 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 78 | | 0 | | -14474 | | -52677 | | 80083 | | 149059 | | 681585 | | 451367 | | ######## | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 114.5 | % | 87.4 | % | 139.6 | % | 119.0 | % | 79.7 | % | 53.4 | % | 80.8 | % | 83.0 | % | 65.3 | % | 67.5 | % | 95.3 | % | 53.7 | % | 80.6 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium == | 54.2 | % | 55.9 | % | 73.8 | % | 38.8 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20.2 | % | 35.4 | % | 51.6 | % | 57.5 | % | 42.1 | % | 34.6 | % | 42.9 | % | 46.5 | % | 41.3 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 64.4 | % | 47.0 | % | 54.4 | % | 59.9 | % | 68.1 | % | 60.7 | % | 66.9 | % | 82.0 | % | 69.9 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.1 | % | 79.0 | % | 62.4 | % | 69.4 | % | 74.0 | % | 92.7 | % | 82.2 | % | 102.1 | % | 92.3 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 67.5 | % | 96.7 | % | 102.9 | % | 74.7 | % | 95.5 | % | 97.8 | % | 97.6 | % | 92.4 | % | 95.9 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 89.9 | % | 104.1 | % | 101.3 | % | 101.4 | % | 102.3 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.7 | % | 103.8 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.7 | % | 103.8 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.7 | % | -2.3 | % | 4.1 | % | 7.7 | % | 30.1 | % | 58.7 | % | |
Exhibit 7
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab=max500 | Claims capped at $500,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 3 LDF’s | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Yeat | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1382561 | | 1132054 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1209691 | | 317868 | | 58859490 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1610618 | | 1721132 | | 1821240 | | 1307092 | | 1740742 | | | | 57499142 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1425502 | | 1103254 | | 2135003 | | 2216800 | | 2025346 | | 2124640 | | | | | | 54150426 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 751499 | | 1143104 | | 1218632 | | 2061985 | | 1457853 | | 2239661 | | 2456253 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1070564 | | 776881 | | 1114230 | | 1640822 | | 2217904 | | 1510375 | | 2321270 | | 2853769 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 1052589 | | 776881 | | 1113109 | | 1785180 | | 2212401 | | 1677461 | | 2305769 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1048901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1833174 | | 2212402 | | 1687915 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1048901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1805920 | | 2143326 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1806127 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2861720 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 3144403 | | 2861721 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383232 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1806127 | | 2143408 | | 1687915 | | 2294757 | | 2910894 | | 2119198 | | 2407338 | | 2657108 | | 848641 | | 60859145 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82 | | 0 | | -11012 | | 57125 | | 223572 | | 282748 | | 916366 | | 530773 | | ######### | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572352 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Lass Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 135.9 | % | 87.4 | % | 161.8 | % | 131.8 | % | 93.5 | % | 60.5 | % | 86.8 | % | 104.2 | % | 70.0 | % | 83.6 | % | 111.9 | % | 59.2 | % | 91.7 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | 58.2 | % | 69.2 | % | 86.7 | % | 42.8 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -----> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30.1 | % | 45.5 | % | 60.2 | % | 38.9 | % | 32.2 | % | 34.6 | % | 45.5 | % | 37.5 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42.4 | % | 46.3 | % | 52.9 | % | 70.2 | % | 59.1 | % | 62.3 | % | 75.1 | % | 65.5 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 68.2 | % | 56.4 | % | 66.5 | % | 65.1 | % | 93.0 | % | 76.2 | % | 95.6 | % | 88.3 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 96.7 | % | 102.5 | % | 67.5 | % | 96.2 | % | 86.4 | % | 97.6 | % | 84.4 | % | 89.5 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 90.8 | % | 103.5 | % | 89.5 | % | 101.2 | % | 98.0 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.8 | % | 103.2 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.5 | % | 103.2 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.5 | % | 2.0 | % | 10.5 | % | 11.7 | % | 34.5 | % | 62.5 | % | |
Exhibit 8
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 3 LDF's. | |
Page 1 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/01 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/01 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25255044 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 41116 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | . 568590 | | | | 569610 | | | | 1020 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 723327 | | | | 776881 | | | | 53554 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 946650 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 1311702 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
5 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) = | | | 26886337 | | | | 28279575 | | | | 1393239 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (5) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/02 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/02 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25316403 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -20243 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 568173 | | | | 569610 | | | | 1437 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 751499 | | | | 776881 | | | | 25382 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1523221 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 735131 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1509340 | | | | 863467 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1615018 | | | | 969145 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
7 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6) = | | | 28191165 | | | | 29868174 | | | | 1677009 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (7) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (7) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/03 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/03 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25298068 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -1908 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1855056 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 403296 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 935175 | | | | 1509340 | | | | 574165 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 990725 | | | | 1615018 | | | | 624293 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003 | | | 768541 | | | | 1358880 | | | | 590339 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 29623566 | | | | 31227054 | | | | 1603488 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/04 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/04 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2007831 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 250521 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1108841 | | | | 1509340 | | | | 400499 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1161618 | | | | 1615018 | | | | 453400 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2004 | | | 2018148 | | | | 3390074 | | | | 1371926 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 31195625 | | | | 33258248 | | | | 2062623 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Exhibit 8
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 3 LDF's. | |
Page 2 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/05 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/05 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2091322 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 167030 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1427045 | | | | 1509340 | | | | 82295 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1532869 | | | | 1615018 | | | | 82149 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 3325240 | | | | 5268615 | | | | 1943375 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 32944197 | | | | 35136789 | | | | 2192591 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/06 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/06 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2237404 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 20948 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1583846 | | | | 1509340 | | | | -74506 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1689522 | | | | 1615018 | | | | -74504 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 4531089 | | | | 5268615 | | | | 737526 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 1866611 | | | | 1183442 | |
9 for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 1975709 | | | | 1292540 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
10 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6) +(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9) = | | | 35135988 | | | | 37057949 | | | | 1921960 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in theLine (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/07 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/07 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2285398 | | | | 2258352 | | | | -27046 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578343 | | | | 1509340 | | | | -69003 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684019 | | | | 1615018 | | | | -69001 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5135205 | | | | 5268615 | | | | 133410 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 1866611 | | | | 545371 | |
9 for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 1975709 | | | | 654469 | |
10 for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 1672287 | | | | 839220 | |
11 for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 1943293 | | | | 1110226 | |
12 for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 2407388 | | | | 1574321 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
13 (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(11)+.39*(12)= | | | 37253733 | | | | 39122617 | | | | 1868884 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in theLine (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note3: The 2007 year is included in theLine (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
| Exhibit 8 | |
| American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009 | |
| Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability | |
file = Lsdv09 avg3.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 3 LDF's. | |
Page 3 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/08 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/08 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2258144 | | | | 2258352 | | | | 208 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578344 | | | | 1509340 | | | | -69004 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684020 | | | | 1615018 | | | | -69002 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5292693 | | | | 5268615 | | | | -24078 | |
8 | | for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1916770 | | | | 1866611 | | | | -50159 | |
9 | | for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 2017468 | | | | 1975709 | | | | -41759 | |
10 | | for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 1378354 | | | | 1672287 | | | | 293933 | |
11 | | for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 1593351 | | | | 1943293 | | | | 349942 | |
12 | | for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 1807092 | | | | 2407388 | | | | 600296 | |
13 | | for $250K triangle for 2008 | | | 947313 | | | | 1672287 | | | | 724974 | |
14 | | for $500K triangle for 2008 | | | 1209691 | | | | 2407388 | | | | 1197697 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
15 | | (1)-.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) +.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(l)+.39*(12)+.2*(13)+.8*(14) = | | | 39983405 | | | | 41382985 | | | | 1399580 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in theLine (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note3: The 2007 year is included in theLine (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
Note4: The 2008 year is included in theLine (13) total as 20% of the $250K version and 80% of $500K version.
Exhibit 1
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed to 10 CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab = uncapped | Claims Data Is Uncapped | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plu= Case Reserves --------------------------> | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 556975 | | 377577 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1742716 | | 1308398 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1214939 | | 317868 | | | 65132733 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2526010 | | 1495127 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 386782 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1970773 | | 2085193 | | 1321240 | | 1956742 | | 1746089 | | | | | 61658753 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 3048918 | | 2665142 | | 1467638 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 383282 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1430014 | | 1103254 | | 2495158 | | 2921985 | | 2025346 | | 2418030 | | | | | | | 59736196 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 5780825 | | 3383880 | | 2792841 | | 1511561 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 383282 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 1180339 | | 1218632 | | 2700182 | | 1457853 | | 2599816 | | 3166856 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | | 57228595 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 11873981 | | 5778392 | | 3399989 | | 2827288 | | 1516113 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 383282 | | 1087779 | | 776881 | | 1151465 | | 1939611 | | 2854632 | | 1510375 | | 2681425 | | 3576526 | | | | | | | | | | | 54589114 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 13188766 | | 11782522 | | 5852591 | | 3435015 | | 2895896 | | 1611795 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 383282 | | 1064553 | | 776881 | | 1150424 | | 2083969 | | 2849129 | | 2090986 | | 2665924 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 50852119 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1530012 | | 13137943 | | 11801478 | | 6280488 | | 3543331 | | 2168084 | | 1816040 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1060865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2131963 | | 2849130 | | 2109079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 48378473 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11803793 | | 6299882 | | 3550410 | | 2868087 | | 1799321 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1060865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104709 | | 2780054 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46587868 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11803949 | | 6336747 | | 3550410 | | 2867587 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104916 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44832430 | | as or 2001 |
+9 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11796510 | | 6336747 | | 3550410 | | 2861720 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43919601 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6336747 | | 3538676 | | 2861721 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43410471 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42443151 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41481333 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one open clm | | | | | | | | | | | 40539700 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | for $IMM-plus in 2003 | | | | | | | | | | | 40105112 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | but don't adj Uncapped | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104916 | | 2780110 | | 2093306 | | 2659398 | | 3823126 | | 2338795 | | 3349142 | | 3050287 | | 820650 | | | 68588352 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 56 | | -15773 | | -6526 | | 246600 | | 443169 | | 931112 | | 1304198 | | 502782 | | $ | 3,405.619 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1181211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | .985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | | 12563435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691873 | | 551144 | | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 639144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 137.4 | % | 87.4 | % | 167.2 | % | 153.6 | % | 121.3 | % | 75.0 | % | 100.6 | % | 136.9 | % | 77.3 | % | 116.3 | % | 128.5 | % | 57.3 | % | | 108.1 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | | 64.2 | % | 96.3 | % | 99.5 | % | 41.4 | % | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 63.9 | % | 29.2 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 42.8 | % | 30.6 | % | 71.7 | % | 32.8 | % | 15.7 | % | 23.2 | % | 36.7 | % | 65.5 | % | 34.2 | % | 29.2 | % | 24.9 | % | 39.3 | % | 38.7 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 69.8 | % | 88.3 | % | 82.6 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 100.9 | % | 47.9 | % | 56.0 | % | 53.8 | % | 36.4 | % | 35.7 | % | 42.7 | % | 74.1 | % | 54.5 | % | 56.5 | % | 58.4 | % | 57.2 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 79.8 | % | 86.1 | % | 93.2 | % | 81.1 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 50.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 66.0 | % | 48.4 | % | 51.4 | % | 52.7 | % | 93.8 | % | 76.4 | % | 86.6 | % | 72.2 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 74.4 | % | 90.7 | % | 95.6 | % | 97.6 | % | 83.5 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 56.3 | % | 96.7 | % | 102.4 | % | 57.9 | % | 97.1 | % | 69.6 | % | 97.8 | % | 82.8 | % | 81.1 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 72.8 | % | 100.6 | % | 90.7 | % | 96.1 | % | 98.8 | % | 83.7 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 92.1 | % | 102.7 | % | 72.2 | % | 100.8 | % | 93.5 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 90.2 | % | 100.9 | % | 99.9 | % | 91.9 | % | 97.1 | % | 101.2 | % | 89.0 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 99.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 99.9 | % | 100.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.6 | % | 100.1 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.3 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.3 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | %. | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.8 | % | -0.2 | % | 6.5 | % | 18.9 | % | 27.8 | % | 42.8 | % | 61.3 | % | |
Exhibit 3
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab = max100 | Claims capped at $100,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------> | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826389 | | 511385 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 310148 | | 305475 | | 269344 | | 329809 | | 550759 | | 760497 | | 858641 | | 717128 | | 659711 | | 668815 | | 762420 | | 317868 | | | 36555265 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2108077 | | 558554 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 204194 | | 491557 | | 358727 | | 511158 | | 765736 | | 726587 | | 885093 | | 1036906 | | 886665 | | 1109280 | | 1055859 | | 1053033 | | | | | 35945159 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 1933879 | | 2305652 | | 548022 | | 590375 | | 403488 | | 200694 | | 521060 | | 568590 | | 609438 | | 918642 | | 905799 | | 1095507 | | 1541156 | | 1107642 | | 1241088 | | 1182385 | | | | | | | 34716539 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 4006777 | | 1964510 | | 2367610 | | 591945 | | 610363 | | 448315 | | 200694 | | 577689 | | 568173 | | 693718 | | 1059244 | | 1135135 | | 1223328 | | 1590322 | | 1161544 | | 1274398 | | | | | | | | | 33329636 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 6203569 | | 4025557 | | 1983448 | | 2351103 | | 596497 | | 588385 | | 494462 | | 200694 | | 632097 | | 569610 | | 664844 | | 1066787 | | 1276334 | | 1252642 | | 1610856 | | 1106329 | | | | | | | | | | | 31581035 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 7284306 | | 6112772 | | 3963466 | | 2018474 | | 2381387 | | 684718 | | 560894 | | 502255 | | 200694 | | 613761 | | 569610 | | 663803 | | 1211145 | | 1273782 | | 1152808 | | 1575824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30239390 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1024727 | | 7249007 | | 6131728 | | 3944252 | | 2043132 | | 2447903 | | 659747 | | 564932 | | 506305 | | 200694 | | 610073 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1182759 | | 1273783 | | 1153712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28967122 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6133812 | | 3943803 | | 2036222 | | 2447906 | | 641354 | | 547315 | | 506305 | | 200694 | | 610073 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155505 | | 1204707 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27810509 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6133968 | | 3937996 | | 2036222 | | 2447406 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26664601 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6126529 | | 3937996 | | 2016222 | | 2441539 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 5S9610 | | 665527 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25833548 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3937996 | | 2024488 | | 2441540 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25486785 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24843188 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509199 | | 200694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24220986 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | 23838290 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | 23573573 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155712 | | 1204751 | | 1153712 | | 1544353 | | 1082459 | | 1268837 | | 1257661 | | 1325737 | | 558584 | | | 37083104 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 44 | | 0 | | -31471 | | -23870 | | -5561 | | 75276 | | 272704 | | 240716 | | $ | 527,839 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373836 | | 1432580 | | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 165.6 | % | 131.5 | % | 23.0 | % | 79.0 | % | 64.1 | % | 96.6 | % | 84.4 | % | 52.6 | % | 41.3 | % | 58.4 | % | 38.8 | % | 41.9 | % | 43.7 | % | 55.8 | % | 39.0 | % | | 53.5 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | 34.8 | % | 36.2 | % | 43.2 | % | 28.2 | % | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ----------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 74.9 | % | 79.2 | % | 60.8 | % | 17.2 | % | 81.7 | % | 50.8 | % | 53.6 | % | 40.5 | % | 28.5 | % | 45.7 | % | 65.9 | % | 55.6 | % | 66.2 | % | 52.0 | % | 53.2 | % | 57.5 | % | 56.9 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 122.0 | % | 36.4 | % | 86.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 41.4 | % | 101.7 | % | 80.6 | % | 63.0 | % | 768 | % | 66.3 | % | 60.3 | % | 76.7 | % | 67.1 | % | 81.9 | % | 87.4 | % | 84.0 | % | 79.4 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 128.0 | % | 95.5 | % | 94.5 | % | 84.9 | % | 107.9 | % | 79.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 85.4 | % | 99.8 | % | 91.6 | % | 79.5 | % | 75.2 | % | 95.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 102.3 | % | 97.8 | % | 94.0 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 143.2 | % | 100.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 97.0 | % | 91.7 | % | 111.5 | % | 88.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.7 | % | 99.7 | % | 104.2 | % | 91.7 | % | 94.2 | % | 106.0 | % | 103.0 | % | 107.3 | % | 100.4 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 132.2 | % | 101.2 | % | 101.3 | % | 98.0 | % | 96.3 | % | 92.4 | % | 107.5 | % | 97.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 103.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 92.3 | % | 105.9 | % | 108.6 | % | 104.3 | % | 102.2 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 134.6 | % | 101.3 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.7 | % | 97.6 | % | 106.1 | % | 102.5 | % | 98.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.7 | % | 104.8 | % | 105.7 | % | 99.9 | % | 102.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.8 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.9 | % | 100.3 | % | 102.2 | % | 103.2 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.3 | % | 105.7 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -2.0 | % | -2.2 | % | -0.4 | % | 6.0 | % | 20.6 | % | 43.1 | % | |
Exhibit 4
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab = max200 | Claims capped at $200,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------> | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 506975 | | 375027 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1062273 | | 820860 | | 683169 | | 785424 | | 894837 | | 317868 | | | 45915101 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2463401 | | 677691 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 304194 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 616841 | | 765736 | | 935175 | | 892840 | | 1245142 | | 1095282 | | 1321240 | | 1270856 | | 1418714 | | | | | 44893711 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 2366506 | | 2629271 | | 650202 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 300694 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 757485 | | 1017932 | | 1108841 | | 1103254 | | 1769527 | | 1487989 | | 1781123 | | 1463829 | | | | | | | 42949243 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 4865282 | | 2394952 | | 2753940 | | 694125 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 300694 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 837124 | | 1199581 | | 1427045 | | 1388753 | | 1926877 | | 1675215 | | 1786835 | | | | | | | | | 40894907 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 7781363 | | 4893026 | | 2412908 | | 2806684 | | 698677 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 300694 | | 741713 | | 776881 | | 808250 | | 1284113 | | 1583846 | | 1427046 | | 2008486 | | 1737252 | | | | | | | | | | | 38824548 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9028105 | | 7689904 | | 4922946 | | 2447934 | | 2875289 | | 794359 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 300694 | | 723468 | | 776881 | | 807209 | | 1428471 | | 1578343 | | 1289781 | | 1992985 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37208710 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1284322 | | 8977282 | | 7708860 | | 4920212 | | 2556250 | | 2847477 | | 897510 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 300694 | | 719780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1476465 | | 1578344 | | 1293073 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 35697606 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7710970 | | 4919312 | | 2563329 | | 2847480 | | 880077 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 300694 | | 719780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449211 | | 1509268 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34300790 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7711126 | | 4909976 | | 2563329 | | 2846980 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449418 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32894415 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7703687 | | 4909976 | | 2563329 | | 2841113 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31982300 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4909976 | | 2551595 | | 2841114 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31526814 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30655695 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 300694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29796762 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | 29267668 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | 28879242 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449418 | | 1509312 | | 1293073 | | 1982435 | | 1719630 | | 1863902 | | 1701590 | | 2079484 | | 699652 | | | 47244356 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 44 | | 0 | | -10550 | | -17622 | | 77067 | | 237761 | | 660770 | | 381784 | | $ | 1,329,255 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 34.4 | % | 93.2 | % | 87.4 | % | 117.4 | % | 105.8 | % | 65.8 | % | 46.3 | % | 75.0 | % | 61.6 | % | 61.6 | % | 59.1 | % | 87.6 | % | 48.8 | % | | 70.9 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | | 51.1 | % | 48.9 | % | 67.8 | % | 35.3 | % | | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ---------------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 64.3 | % | 59.5 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 54.6 | % | 45.1 | % | 65.3 | % | 46.4 | % | 22.8 | % | 42.8 | % | 59.4 | % | 53.6 | % | 47.7 | % | 36.7 | % | 46.2 | % | 43.0 | % | 45.4 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 96.8 | % | 86.7 | % | 76.3 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 101.2 | % | 70.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 76.3 | % | 52.8 | % | 62.0 | % | 69.0 | % | 62.8 | % | 63.7 | % | 70.9 | % | 74.7 | % | 68.2 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 102.8 | % | 92.7 | % | 92.6 | % | 73.2 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 74.7 | % | 93.1 | % | 93.6 | % | 70.2 | % | 73.5 | % | 85.3 | % | 89.3 | % | 86.5 | % | 95.6 | % | 86.0 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 113.9 | % | 98.4 | % | 93.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 78.2 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 82.9 | % | 96.7 | % | 103.5 | % | 82.8 | % | 94.5 | % | 107.4 | % | 97.2 | % | 97.4 | % | 95.9 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 106.8 | % | 101.0 | % | 99.0 | % | 94.6 | % | 98.8 | % | 78.7 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 103.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 88.6 | % | 104.9 | % | 110.4 | % | 101.3 | % | 101.0 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 107.4 | % | 101.3 | % | 99.8 | % | 99.6 | % | 95.9 | % | 101.2 | % | 89.4 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.6 | % | 104.6 | % | 99.7 | % | 100.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.8 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.3 | % | 101.1 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.9 | % | 104.6 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.5 | % | -1.0 | % | 4.1 | % | 14.0 | % | 31.8 | % | 54.6 | % | |
Exhibit 5
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab = max250 | Claims capped at $250,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves --------------------------> | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 1826889 | | 528342 | | 332794 | | 87427 | | 164044 | | 324809 | | 556975 | | 377577 | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1125308 | | 872726 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 947313 | | 317868 | | 48883988 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 2469767 | | 2526010 | | 728781 | | 540386 | | 210778 | | 354193 | | 508077 | | 435144 | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 990725 | | 892840 | | 1349260 | | 1199591 | | 1321240 | | 1378354 | | 1473413 | | | | 47832415 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 5083944 | | 2522780 | | 2665142 | | 701292 | | 651016 | | 403488 | | 350693 | | 537580 | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1161618 | | 1103254 | | 1873645 | | 1642422 | | 1916770 | | 1573964 | | | | | | 45614051 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 8772632 | | 5062989 | | 2553212 | | 2792841 | | 745215 | | 671551 | | 548885 | | 350694 | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 888121 | | 1218632 | | 1532869 | | 1457853 | | 1982408 | | 1874281 | | 1895574 | | | | | | | | 43496306 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 9511580 | | 8410583 | | 5090468 | | 2570677 | | 2827288 | | 749766 | | 649568 | | 595033 | | 350694 | | 796522 | | 776881 | | 859247 | | 1348214 | | 1689522 | | 1510375 | | 2064017 | | 1987356 | | | | | | | | | | 41304552 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9689521 | | 8319124 | | 5164667 | | 2605703 | | 2895896 | | 845448 | | 622077 | | 601894 | | 350694 | | 778322 | | 776881 | | 358206 | | 1492572 | | 1684019 | | 1354395 | | 2048516 | | | | | | | | | | | | 39497578 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1379577 | | 9638698 | | 8338030 | | 5187720 | | 2714019 | | 2868084 | | 1016392 | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 350694 | | 774634 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1540566 | | 1684020 | | 1358880 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37907251 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8340203 | | 5185704 | | 2721098 | | 2868087 | | 999438 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 350694 | | 774634 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513312 | | 1614944 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 36406391 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8340359 | | 5222569 | | 2721098 | | 2867587 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513519 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34943198 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8332920 | | 5222569 | | 2721098 | | 2861720 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34030604 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5222569 | | 2709364 | | 2861721 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33554776 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32587456 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2360605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 350694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31679636 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | 31143039 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | 30707795 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 350694 | | 774635 | | 776881 | | 859930 | | 1513519 | | 1614989 | | 1358880 | | 2038893 | | 1963812 | | 1993723 | | 1852657 | | 2208129 | | 716675 | | 50361231 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 45 | | 0 | | -9623 | | -23544 | | 98149 | | 278693 | | 734716 | | 398807 | | ######### | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ $50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 40.1 | % | 100.3 | % | 87.4 | % | 124.8 | % | 110.5 | % | 70.4 | % | 48.7 | % | 77.1 | % | 70.3 | % | 65.9 | % | 64.4 | % | 93.0 | % | 50.0 | % | 75.3 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | | 54.7 | % | 53.3 | % | 72.0 | % | 36.1 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED ----------------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 63.9 | % | 52.3 | % | 54.7 | % | 14.4 | % | 46.8 | % | 41.9 | % | 71.7 | % | 43.9 | % | 21.8 | % | 40.0 | % | 56.6 | % | 55.2 | % | 44.4 | % | 34.3 | % | 45.0 | % | 42.9 | % | 44.4 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 91.2 | % | 88.3 | % | 72.2 | % | 88.8 | % | 34.6 | % | 101.0 | % | 65.6 | % | 56.0 | % | 72.0 | % | 50.6 | % | 61.3 | % | 65.7 | % | 66.2 | % | 61.1 | % | 66.3 | % | 74.4 | % | 66.7 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 96.7 | % | 93.3 | % | 93.2 | % | 69.5 | % | 107.0 | % | 66.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 69.4 | % | 93.1 | % | 88.4 | % | 67.3 | % | 71.9 | % | 81.2 | % | 91.9 | % | 83.6 | % | 96.1 | % | 85.0 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 105.3 | % | 96.3 | % | 94.2 | % | 97.6 | % | 73.8 | % | 110.4 | % | 90.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 77.1 | % | 96.7 | % | 103.3 | % | 80.5 | % | 94.9 | % | 107.3 | % | 97.2 | % | 95.4 | % | 95.1 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 99.4 | % | 100.9 | % | 96.8 | % | 94.9 | % | 98.8 | % | 74.3 | % | 106.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 102.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 89.1 | % | 104.6 | % | 111.1 | % | 101.2 | % | 101.2 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 100.0 | % | 101.2 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.2 | % | 96.2 | % | 101.2 | % | 83.8 | % | 102.2 | % | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.6 | % | 104.3 | % | 99.7 | % | 100.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 100.7 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.3 | % | 100.7 | % | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.8 | % | 104.3 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.3 | % | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.1 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0% | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.5 | % | -1.2 | % | 4.9 | % | 15.0 | % | 33.3 | % | 55.6 | % | |
Exhibit 6
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average | |
tab=max350 | Claims capped at $350,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ------------------------------> |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 329809 | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1228209 | | 976457 | | 683169 | | 813067 | | 1052264 | | 317868 | | 53385186 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 619391 | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1456266 | | 1408207 | | 1321240 | | 1593351 | | 1580345 | | | | 52309869 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 723327 | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1267171 | | 1103254 | | 1980651 | | 1905645 | | 2017468 | | 1794234 | | | | | | 49535665 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 596923 | | 751499 | | 990114 | | 1218632 | | 1744515 | | 1457853 | | 2085309 | | 2143472 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 906139 | | 776881 | | 961240 | | 1465257 | | 1900875 | | 1510375 | | 2166918 | | 2371295 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 601894 | | 383282 | | 888029 | | 776881 | | 960199 | | 1609615 | | 1895372 | | 1483621 | | 2151417 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 626115 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 884341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1657609 | | 1895373 | | 1490494 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1135154 | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 884341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630355 | | 1826297 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2867587 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630562 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 2953019 | | 2861720 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 5563951 | | 2941285 | | 2861721 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | => cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630562 | | 1826344 | | 1490494 | | 2143467 | | 2388974 | | 2082754 | | 2175145 | | 2442740 | | 748448 | | 55255976 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 47 | | 0 | | -7950 | | 17679 | | 187128 | | 380911 | | 862395 | | 430580 | | ######### | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 114.5 | % | 87.4 | % | 139.6 | % | 119.0 | % | 79.7 | % | 53.4 | % | 81.1 | % | 85.6 | % | 68.8 | % | 75.6 | % | 102.9 | % | 52.2 | % | 82.8 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium == | 57.2 | % | 62.5 | % | 79.7 | % | 37.7 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -----------> |
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20.2 | % | 35.4 | % | 51.6 | % | 57.3 | % | 40.9 | % | 32.8 | % | 38.3 | % | 43.1 | % | 42.5 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 64.4 | % | 47.0 | % | 54.4 | % | 59.9 | % | 67.9 | % | 58.9 | % | 63.4 | % | 73.3 | % | 64.7 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.1 | % | 79.0 | % | 62.4 | % | 69.4 | % | 74.0 | % | 92.4 | % | 79.8 | % | 96.9 | % | 82.5 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 67.5 | % | 96.7 | % | 102.9 | % | 74.7 | % | 95.5 | % | 97.8 | % | 97.3 | % | 89.7 | % | 91.0 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 102.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 89.9 | % | 104.1 | % | 101.3 | % | 101.1 | % | 99.3 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.7 | % | 103.8 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.7 | % | 103.8 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.4 | % | 0.7 | % | 9.0 | % | 17.5 | % | 35.3 | % | 57.5 | % | |
Exhibit 7
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 lo CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max500 | Claims capped at $500,000 per loss — LAE prorated | the last 5 LDFs. |
Paid Losses and LAE plus Case Reserves ==============> |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 645873 | | 768541 | | 1382561 | | 1132054 | | 683169 | | 833067 | | 1209691 | | 317868 | | 58859490 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 765736 | | 993280 | | 892840 | | 1610618 | | 1721132 | | 1321240 | | 1807092 | | 1740742 | | | | 57499142 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 760035 | | 1017932 | | 1425502 | | 1103254 | | 2135003 | | 2216800 | | 2025346 | | 2124640 | | | | | | 54150426 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 751499 | | 1143104 | | 1218632 | | 2061985 | | 1457853 | | 2239661 | | 2456253 | | 1895626 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1070564 | | 776881 | | 1114230 | | 1640822 | | 2217904 | | 1510375 | | 2321270 | | 2853769 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 1052589 | | 776881 | | 1113189 | | 1785180 | | 2212401 | | 1677461 | | 2305769 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1048901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1833174 | | 2212402 | | 1687915 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 608498 | | 605944 | | 383282 | | 1048901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1805920 | | 2143326 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1806127 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2861720 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 3144403 | | 2861721 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608838 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Only one large open | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | claim for $1 MM plus | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ==> cap at zero IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1806127 | | 2143376 | | 1687915 | | 2299851 | | 2943994 | | 2199815 | | 2709520 | | 2824545 | | 782164 | | 61381015 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 50 | | 0 | | -5918 | | 90225 | | 304189 | | 584880 | | 1083803 | | 464296 | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 135.9 | % | 87.4 | % | 161.8 | % | 131.8 | % | 93.5 | % | 60.5 | % | 87.0 | % | 105.4 | % | 72.7 | % | 94.1 | % | 119.0 | % | 54.6 | % | 93.7 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Less Ratio including $50K premium == | | 60.4 | % | 77.9 | % | 92.1 | % | 39.4 | % | | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED =======>
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30.1 | % | 45.5 | % | 60.1 | % | 38.5 | % | 31.1 | % | 30.7 | % | 42.8 | % | 40.6 | % | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42.4 | % | 46.3 | % | 52.9 | % | 70.0 | % | 58.5 | % | 60.1 | % | 66.7 | % | 61.6 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 68.2 | % | 56.4 | % | 66.5 | % | 65.4 | % | 92.8 | % | 75.3 | % | 92.1 | % | 78.4 | % | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 96.7 | % | 102.5 | % | 67.5 | % | 96.2 | % | 86.4 | % | 97.4 | % | 83.4 | % | 86.2 | % | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 90.8 | % | 103.5 | % | 89.5 | % | 100.9 | % | 96.9 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.8 | % | 98.8 | % | 103.2 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 101.5 | % | 103.2 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100j0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+ 14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | -0.3 | % | 3.1 | % | 13.8 | % | 21.6 | % | 38.4 | % | 59.4 | % | |
Exhibit 8
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Page 1 | | |
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/01 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/01 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25255044 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 41116 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 568590 | | | | 569610 | | | | 1020 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 723327 | | | | 776881 | | | | 53554 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 946650 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 1311701 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
5 | | (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) = | | | 26886337 | | | | 28279575 | | | | 1393238 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (5) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/02 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/02 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25316403 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -20243 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 568173 | | | | 569610 | | | | 1437 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 751499 | | | | 776881 | | | | 25382 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1523221 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 735130 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1509312 | | | | 863439 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1614989 | | | | 969116 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
7 | | (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6) = | | | 28191165 | | | | 29868144 | | | | 1676980 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (7) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (7) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/03 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/03 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25298068 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -1908 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1855056 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 403295 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 935175 | | | | 1509312 | | | | 574137 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 990725 | | | | 1614989 | | | | 624264 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003 | | | 768541 | | | | 1358880 | | | | 590339 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 | | (l)+.25*(2)+.75*{3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 29623566 | | | | 31227024 | | | | 1603458 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/04 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/04 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2007831 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 250520 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1108841 | | | | 1509312 | | | | 400471 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1161618 | | | | 1614989 | | | | 453371 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2004 | | | 2018148 | | | | 3397773 | | | | 1379625 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 | | (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 31195625 | | | | 33265917 | | | | 2070292 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Exhibit 8
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 5 LDF's. | |
page 2 | | |
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/05 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/05 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2091322 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 167029 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1427045 | | | | 1509312 | | | | 82267 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1532869 | | | | 1614989 | | | | 82120 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 3325240 | | | | 5361585 | | | | 2036345 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 | | (l)+-.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 32944197 | | | | 35229729 | | | | 2285532 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/06 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/06 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | �� | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2237404 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 20947 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1583846 | | | | 1509312 | | | | -74534 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1689522 | | | | 1614989 | | | | -74533 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 4531089 | | | | 5361585 | | | | 830496 | |
8 | | for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 1993723 | | | | 1310554 | |
9 | | for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 2082754 | | | | 1399585 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
10 | | (1)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6) +(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9) = | | | 35135988 | | | | 37267968 | | | | 2131979 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in the Line (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/07 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/07 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2285398 | | | | 2258351 | | | | -27047 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578343 | | | | 1509312 | | | | -69031 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684019 | | | | 1614989 | | | | -69030 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5135205 | | | | 5361585 | | | | 226380 | |
8 | | for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 1993723 | | | | 672483 | |
9 | | for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 2082754 | | | | 761514 | |
10 | | for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 1852657 | | | | 1019590 | |
11 | | for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 2175145 | | | | 1342078 | |
12 | | for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 2709520 | | | | 1876453 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
13 | | (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(11)+.39*(12)= | | | 37253733 | | | | 39580571 | | | | 2326838 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in the Line (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note3: The 2007 year is included in the Line (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
Exhibit 8
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability - BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg5.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 5 LDF's. | |
Page 3 | | |
| | | | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | | | at 12/08 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/08 IBNR | |
1 | | for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 | | for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 569610 | | | | 0 | |
3 | | for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 776881 | | | | 0 | |
4 | | for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2258144 | | | | 2258351 | | | | 207 | |
5 | | for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578344 | | | | 1509312 | | | | -69032 | |
6 | | for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684020 | | | | 1614989 | | | | -69031 | |
7 | | for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5292693 | | | | 5361585 | | | | 68892 | |
8 | | for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1916770 | | | | 1993723 | | | | 76953 | |
9 | | for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 2017468 | | | | 2082754 | | | | 65286 | |
10 | | for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 1378354 | | | | 1852657 | | | | 474303 | |
11 | | for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 1593351 | | | | 2175145 | | | | 581794 | |
12 | | for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 1807092 | | | | 2709520 | | | | 902428 | |
13 | | for $250K triangle for 2008 | | | 947313 | | | | 1852657 | | | | 905344 | |
14 | | for $500K triangle for 2008 | | | 1209691 | | | | 2709520 | | | | 1499829 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
15 | | (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(l 1)+.39*(12)= +.2*(13)+.8*(14) = | | | 39983405 | | | | 42118718 | | | | 2135313 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in the Line (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in the Line (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version,
Note3: The 2007 year is included in the Line (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
Note 4: The 2008 year is included in the Line (13) total as 20% of the $250K version and 80% of $500K version.
American Inter-Fidelity at 12/09
Worksheet – Auto Liability Rate Changes from 2008 to 2009
| file = JPCA Sept09Actuaryreport.xls |
Insurance rates | sheet = rates v2 |
NA- not covered by AIFE for this time frame or no revenue
Revised to ignore NA policies
| | Per AON: | | | | 1st Half of 2009 | | | 2nd Half of 2009 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Policy period ends: | | 7/1/2008 | | | | | | | Reinsurance | | | | | | | | | Reinsurance | | | | | | Rate Change | | | | | | Premium | | | Premium | | | Weighted Average | |
Company | | Except: | | | | Liability rate | | | Rate | | | Difference | | | Liability rate | | | Rate | | | Difference | | | Gross | | | Net | | | Gross | | | Net | | | Gross | | | Net | |
Antler | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.48 | % | | | 1.53 | % | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.482 | % | | | 1.52 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | -0.5 | % | | $ | 70,885.76 | | | $ | 53,960.30 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | -0.02 | % |
CNT | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.48 | % | | | 1.53 | % | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.482 | % | | | 1.52 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | -0.5 | % | | $ | 338,186.16 | | | $ | 257,464.52 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | -0.08 | % |
Fivestar | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.48 | % | | | 1.53 | % | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.482 | % | | | 1.52 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | -0.5 | % | | $ | 90,387.85 | | | $ | 68,807.00 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | -0.02 | % |
Fast Freight Systems | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.48 | % | | | 1.53 | % | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.482 | % | | | 1.52 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | -0.5 | % | | $ | 7,975.65 | | | $ | 6,056.88 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.00 | % |
Freightmaster | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.48 | % | | | 1.53 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gulfline | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.48 | % | | | 1.53 | % | | | 2.00 | % | | | 0.482 | % | | | 1.52 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | -0.5 | % | | $ | 13,973.73 | | | $ | 10,642.62 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.00 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Keystone CAM | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.64 | % | | | 2.26 | % | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.318 | % | | | 2.58 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 14.2 | % | | $ | 21,105.62 | | | $ | 17,274.26 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.17 | % |
Keystone Main-Willmington | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.36 | % | | | 2.55 | % | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.318 | % | | | 2.58 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 1.5 | % | | $ | 129,365.94 | | | $ | 114,068.10 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.11 | % |
CAM-Gulfport | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.57 | % | | | 2.33 | % | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.514 | % | | | 2.39 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.4 | % | | $ | 61,855.79 | | | $ | 50,099.68 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.08 | % |
Patriot | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.18 | % | | | 0.44 | % | | | 2.74 | % | | | 3.18 | % | | | 0.279 | % | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 6.9 | % | | $ | 480,715.23 | | | $ | 422,076.80 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 1.71 | % |
TLI | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.35 | % | | | 0.23 | % | | | 3.12 | % | | | 3.35 | % | | | 0.228 | % | | | 3.12 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.1 | % | | $ | 69,503.79 | | | $ | 64,759.49 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.00 | % |
TLIGA | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.20 | % | | | 0.23 | % | | | 2.97 | % | | | 3.20 | % | | | 0.228 | % | | | 2.97 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.1 | % | | $ | 91,181.13 | | | $ | 84,646.58 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.00 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Blue & Gray | | 4/1/2009 | | 01/01/09-03/31/09 | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.56 | % | | | 2.44 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Bruin | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.50 | % | | | 0.60 | % | | | 2.90 | % | | | 3.50 | % | | | 0.540 | % | | | 2.96 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.1 | % | | $ | 35,432.75 | | | $ | 29,544.13 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.04 | % |
CAM | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.40 | % | | | 0.57 | % | | | 2.83 | % | | | 3.40 | % | | | 0.514 | % | | | 2.89 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.0 | % | | $ | 52,902.32 | | | $ | 44,296.24 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.06 | % |
Centrans | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.83 | % | | | 2.17 | % | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.318 | % | | | 2.68 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 23.6 | % | | $ | 3,649.29 | | | $ | 2,892.36 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.05 | % |
Commercial Cartage | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.25 | % | | | 0.62 | % | | | 2.63 | % | | | 3.25 | % | | | 0.555 | % | | | 2.70 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.5 | % | | $ | 49,837.56 | | | $ | 40,806.48 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.07 | % |
Liberty | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.50 | % | | | 0.65 | % | | | 2.85 | % | | | 3.50 | % | | | 0.571 | % | | | 2.93 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 2.8 | % | | $ | 44,311.63 | | | $ | 36,438.43 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.07 | % |
Enterprise | | 4/1/2008 | | 01/01/09-03/31/09 | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.88 | % | | | 2.12 | % | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.501 | % | | | 2.50 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 17.9 | % | | $ | 25,480.65 | | | $ | 19,545.04 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.24 | % |
Cross Transportation (Exceter) | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.30 | % | | | 0.88 | % | | | 2.42 | % | | | 3.30 | % | | | 0.576 | % | | | 2.72 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 12.6 | % | | $ | 42,599.58 | | | $ | 33,226.31 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.29 | % |
Thunderbird | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.65 | % | | | 2.35 | % | | | 3.25 | % | | | 0.318 | % | | | 2.93 | % | | | 8.3 | % | | | 24.6 | % | | $ | 6,007.63 | | | $ | 5,017.64 | | | | 0.03 | % | | | 0.09 | % |
Venture | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.50 | % | | | 0.36 | % | | | 3.15 | % | | | 3.50 | % | | | 0.318 | % | | | 3.18 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 1.2 | % | | $ | 98,798.37 | | | $ | 88,638.22 | | | | 0.00 | % | | | 0.07 | % |
Freightmaster Kearny | | | | 01/01/09-06/30/09 | | | 3.60 | % | | | 0.00 | % | | | 3.60 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Lucas | | 4/1/2008 | | 01/01/09-03/31/09 | | | 3.00 | % | | | 0.83 | % | | | 2.17 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | Average | | | 2.90 | % | | | 0.53 | % | | | 2.36 | % | | | 2.91 | % | | | 0.43 | % | | | 2.48 | % | | | 0.42 | % | | | 5.55 | % | | $ | 1,734,156.68 | | | $ | 1,450,260.07 | | | | 0.03 | % | | | 2.93 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weighted Average – but NOT Including NA accounts |
Exhibit 9
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Projection of Ultimate Claim Counts
Using data through 12/09
Source: diskette file closed94 to closed1209
file = Claim DEV 09.xls
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | In this version, we average | | | | | | | | | | |
Reported Claims ---------------------------------------> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | the last 5 LDF’s. | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 153 | | 73 | | 73 | | 53 | | 75 | | 54 | | 72 | | 98 | | 145 | | 161 | | 268 | | 205 | | 223 | | 251 | | 159 | | 114 | | 7043 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 416 | | 158 | | 80 | | 80 | | 60 | | 81 | | 65 | | 84 | | 105 | | 158 | | 174 | | 276 | | 223 | | 238 | | 261 | | 169 | | | | 6917 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 396 | | 417 | | 160 | | 81 | | 80 | | 61 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | 175 | | 278 | | 226 | | 240 | | 264 | | | | | | 6744 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | 175 | | 278 | | 228 | | 239 | | | | | | | | 6475 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | 175 | | 278 | | 228 | | | | | | | | | | 6232 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | 175 | | 278 | | | | | | | | | | | | 6018 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | 175 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5736 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5561 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5407 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5296 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5211 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5150 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5068 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5006 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4923 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 210 | | 1153 | | 1606 | | 907 | | 399 | | 418 | | 161 | | 81 | | 80 | | 62 | | 82 | | 66 | | 86 | | 106 | | 159 | | 175 | | 278 | | 228 | | 239 | | 264 | | 171 | | 122 | | 7053 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 2 | | 8 | | 10 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Reported Claims on Policies with $50K deductible ====> | | 50 | | 92 | | 65 | | 49 | | 256 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Claims per $1000 Net Premium (including $50K premiums and claims) | | | | 0.245 | | 0.207 | | 0.071 | | 0.106 | | 0.074 | | 0.125 | | 0.077 | | 0.069 | | 0.063 | | 0.105 | | 0.082 | | 0.066 | | 0.076 | | 0.056 | | 0.061 | | 0.074 | | |
Claims per $1000 Net Premium (excluding $50K premiums and claims) | | | | 0.245 | | 0.207 | | 0.071 | | 0.106 | | 0.074 | | 0.125 | | 0.077 | | 0.069 | | 0.063 | | 0.105 | | 0.082 | | 0.062 | | 0.060 | | 0.045 | | 0.051 | | 0.073 | | |
Paid plus Case Reserves as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED----------->
| | 1988 | | | 1989 | | | 1990 | | | 1991 | | | 1992 | | | 1993 | | | 1994 | | | 1995 | | | 1996 | | | 1997 | | | 1998 | | | 1999 | | | 2000 | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 95.0 | % | | 90.1 | % | | 91.3 | % | | 85.5 | % | | 91.5 | % | | 81.8 | % | | 83.7 | % | | 92.5 | % | | 91.2 | % | | 92.0 | % | | 96.4 | % | | 89.9 | % | | 93.3 | % | | 95.0 | % | | 93.1 | % | | 93.5 | % |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 99.5 | % | | 98.1 | % | | 98.8 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 96.8 | % | | 98.8 | % | | 98.5 | % | | 97.7 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 99.4 | % | | 99.4 | % | | 99.3 | % | | 97.8 | % | | 99.6 | % | | 98.8 | % | | 99.0 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 99.2 | % | | 99.8 | % | | 99.4 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 98.4 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 100.4 | % | | 99.9 | % | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 0.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.1 | % | | 1.0 | % | | 6.5 | % |
Exhibit 10
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @ 12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Exh 10 Avg AutoLiab Clm 1209.xls
| | 1988-1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | |
Ultimate Claim Counts | | | 4854 | | | 81 | | | 80 | | | 62 | | | 82 | | | 66 | | | 86 | | | 106 | | | 159 | | | 175 | | | 278 | | | 228 | | | 239 | | | 264 | | | 171 | | | 122 | | | 7053 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average of Last 5 LDF's | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Cap at $100,000 | | | 23428877 | | | 547315 | | | 509200 | | | 200694 | | | 610074 | | | 569610 | | | 665527 | | | 1155712 | | | 1204751 | | | 1153712 | | | 1544353 | | | 1082459 | | | 1268837 | | | 1257661 | | | 1325737 | | | 558584 | | | 37083104 | |
Cap at $200,000 | | | 29122233 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 300694 | | | 719781 | | | 776881 | | | 808933 | | | 1449418 | | | 1509312 | | | 1293073 | | | 1982435 | | | 1719630 | | | 1863902 | | | 1701590 | | | 2079484 | | | 699652 | | | 47244356 | |
Cap at $250,000 | | | 31120477 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 774635 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | 1513519 | | | 1614989 | | | 1358880 | | | 2038893 | | | 1963812 | | | 1993723 | | | 1852657 | | | 2208129 | | | 716675 | | | 50361231 | |
Cap at $350,000 | | | 34103283 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 383282 | | | 884342 | | | 776881 | | | 961923 | | | 1630562 | | | 1826344 | | | 1490494 | | | 2143467 | | | 2388974 | | | 2082754 | | | 2175145 | | | 2442740 | | | 748448 | | | 55255976 | |
Cap at $500,000 | | | 37442393 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 383282 | | | 1048902 | | | 776881 | | | 1114913 | | | 1806127 | | | 2143376 | | | 1687915 | | | 2299851 | | | 2943994 | | | 2199815 | | | 2709520 | | | 2824545 | | | 782164 | | | 61381015 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average Claim @ $100K | | $ | 4,827 | | $ | 6,757 | | $ | 6,365 | | $ | 3,237 | | $ | 7,440 | | $ | 8,630 | | $ | 7,739 | | $ | 10,903 | | $ | 7,577 | | $ | 6,593 | | $ | 5,555 | | $ | 4,748 | | $ | 5,309 | | $ | 4,759 | | $ | 7,764 | | $ | 4,584 | | $ | 5,258 | |
Average Claim @ $200K | | $ | 6,000 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 4,850 | | $ | 8,778 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 9,406 | | $ | 13,674 | | $ | 9,493 | | $ | 7,389 | | $ | 7,131 | | $ | 7,542 | | $ | 7,799 | | $ | 6,440 | | $ | 12,178 | | $ | 5,741 | | $ | 6,699 | |
Average Claim @ $250K | | $ | 6,411 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 5,656 | | $ | 9,447 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 9,999 | | $ | 14,278 | | $ | 10,157 | | $ | 7,765 | | $ | 7,334 | | $ | 8,613 | | $ | 8,342 | | $ | 7,011 | | $ | 12,932 | | $ | 5,881 | | $ | 7,141 | |
Average Claim @ $350K | | $ | 7,026 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 6,182 | | $ | 10,785 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 11,185 | | $ | 15,383 | | $ | 11,486 | | $ | 8,517 | | $ | 7,710 | | $ | 10,478 | | $ | 8,714 | | $ | 8,232 | | $ | 14,306 | | $ | 6,142 | | $ | 7,835 | |
Average Claim @ $500K | | $ | 7,714 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 6,182 | | $ | 12,791 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 12,964 | | $ | 17,039 | | $ | 13,480 | | $ | 9,645 | | $ | 8,273 | | $ | 12,912 | | $ | 9,204 | | $ | 10,254 | | $ | 16,542 | | $ | 6,418 | | $ | 8,703 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average of Last 3 LDF's | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Cap at $100,000 | | | 23428877 | | | 547315 | | | 509200 | | | 200694 | | | 610074 | | | 569610 | | | 665527 | | | 1155712 | | | 1204779 | | | 1153712 | | | 1522803 | | | 1036223 | | | 1185259 | | | 1133973 | | | 1160290 | | | 528755 | | | 36612804 | |
Cap at $200,000 | | | 29122233 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 300694 | | | 719781 | | | 776881 | | | 808933 | | | 1449418 | | | 1509340 | | | 1293073 | | | 1974087 | | | 1643881 | | | 1746582 | | | 1556535 | | | 1900730 | | | 697829 | | | 46717336 | |
Cap at $250,000 | | | 31120477 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 774635 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | 1513519 | | | 1615018 | | | 1358880 | | | 2031194 | | | 1878541 | | | 1866611 | | | 1672287 | | | 2036378 | | | 717346 | | | 49789730 | |
Cap at $350,000 | | | 34103283 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 383282 | | | 884342 | | | 776881 | | | 961923 | | | 1630562 | | | 1826375 | | | 1490494 | | | 2136943 | | | 2318618 | | | 1975709 | | | 1943293 | | | 2261930 | | | 769235 | | | 54680208 | |
Cap at $500,000 | | | 37442393 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 383282 | | | 1048902 | | | 776881 | | | 1114913 | | | 1806127 | | | 2143408 | | | 1687915 | | | 2294757 | | | 2910894 | | | 2119198 | | | 2407388 | | | 2657108 | | | 848641 | | | 60859145 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average Claim @ $100K | | $ | 4,827 | | $ | 6,757 | | $ | 6,365 | | $ | 3,237 | | $ | 7,440 | | $ | 8,630 | | $ | 7,739 | | $ | 10,903 | | $ | 7,577 | | $ | 6,593 | | $ | 5,478 | | $ | 4,545 | | $ | 4,959 | | $ | 4,291 | | $ | 6,795 | | $ | 4,339 | | $ | 5,191 | |
Average Claim @ $200K | | $ | 6,000 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 4,850 | | $ | 8,778 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 9,406 | | $ | 13,674 | | $ | 9,493 | | $ | 7,389 | | $ | 7,101 | | $ | 7,210 | | $ | 7,308 | | $ | 5,891 | | $ | 11,132 | | $ | 5,726 | | $ | 6,624 | |
Average Claim @ $250K | | $ | 6,411 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 5,656 | | $ | 9,447 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 9,999 | | $ | 14,278 | | $ | 10,157 | | $ | 7,765 | | $ | 7,306 | | $ | 8,239 | | $ | 7,810 | | $ | 6,329 | | $ | 11,926 | | $ | 5,886 | | $ | 7,060 | |
Average Claim @ $350K | | $ | 7,026 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 6,182 | | $ | 10,785 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 11,185 | | $ | 15,383 | | $ | 11,487 | | $ | 8,517 | | $ | 7,687 | | $ | 10,169 | | $ | 8,267 | | $ | 7,354 | | $ | 13,247 | | $ | 6,312 | | $ | 7,753 | |
Average Claim @ $500K | | $ | 7,714 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 6,182 | | $ | 12,791 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 12,964 | | $ | 17,039 | | $ | 13,481 | | $ | 9,645 | | $ | 8,255 | | $ | 12,767 | | $ | 8,867 | | $ | 9,111 | | $ | 15,561 | | $ | 6,964 | | $ | 8,629 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average of Last 2 LDF's | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Cap at $100,000 | | | 23428877 | | | 547315 | | | 509200 | | | 200694 | | | 610074 | | | 569610 | | | 665527 | | | 1155713 | | | 1204816 | | | 1153712 | | | 1532561 | | | 1035483 | | | 1180309 | | | 1114837 | | | 1116140 | | | 495504 | | | 36520373 | |
Cap at $200,000 | | | 29122233 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 300694 | | | 719781 | | | 776881 | | | 808933 | | | 1449419 | | | 1509377 | | | 1293073 | | | 1950898 | | | 1628831 | | | 1772510 | | | 1526101 | | | 1797942 | | | 627973 | | | 46501984 | |
Cap at $250,000 | | | 31120477 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 774635 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | 1513520 | | | 1615055 | | | 1358880 | | | 2008940 | | | 1858296 | | | 1899949 | | | 1663207 | | | 1933434 | | | 641611 | | | 49592847 | |
Cap at $350,000 | | | 34103283 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 383282 | | | 884342 | | | 776881 | | | 961923 | | | 1630563 | | | 1826414 | | | 1490494 | | | 2116344 | | | 2327954 | | | 1989021 | | | 1957815 | | | 2138335 | | | 692822 | | | 54496813 | |
Cap at $500,000 | | | 37442393 | | | 608498 | | | 608839 | | | 383282 | | | 1048902 | | | 776881 | | | 1114914 | | | 1806128 | | | 2143450 | | | 1687915 | | | 2276207 | | | 2981038 | | | 2097044 | | | 2485768 | | | 2565528 | | | 788117 | | | 60814903 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average Claim @ $100K | | $ | 4,827 | | $ | 6,757 | | $ | 6,365 | | $ | 3,237 | | $ | 7,440 | | $ | 8,630 | | $ | 7,739 | | $ | 10,903 | | $ | 7,577 | | $ | 6,593 | | $ | 5,513 | | $ | 4,542 | | $ | 4,939 | | $ | 4,219 | | $ | 6,537 | | $ | 4,066 | | $ | 5,178 | |
Average Claim @ $200K | | $ | 6,000 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 4,850 | | $ | 8,778 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 9,406 | | $ | 13,674 | | $ | 9,493 | | $ | 7,389 | | $ | 7,018 | | $ | 7,144 | | $ | 7,416 | | $ | 5,775 | | $ | 10,530 | | $ | 5,153 | | $ | 6,593 | |
Average Claim @ $250K | | $ | 6,411 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 5,656 | | $ | 9,447 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 9,999 | | $ | 14,278 | | $ | 10,158 | | $ | 7,765 | | $ | 7,226 | | $ | 8,150 | | $ | 7,950 | | $ | 6,294 | | $ | 11,323 | | $ | 5,265 | | $ | 7,032 | |
Average Claim @ $350K | | $ | 7,026 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 6,182 | | $ | 10,785 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 11,185 | | $ | 15,383 | | $ | 11,487 | | $ | 8,517 | | $ | 7,613 | | $ | 10,210 | | $ | 8,322 | | $ | 7,409 | | $ | 12,523 | | $ | 5,685 | | $ | 7,727 | |
Average Claim @ $500K | | $ | 7,714 | | $ | 7,512 | | $ | 7,610 | | $ | 6,182 | | $ | 12,791 | | $ | 11,771 | | $ | 12,964 | | $ | 17,039 | | $ | 13,481 | | $ | 9,645 | | $ | 8,188 | | $ | 13,075 | | $ | 8,774 | | $ | 9,407 | | $ | 15,025 | | $ | 6,467 | | $ | 8,623 | |
| | Remove claim counts from $50,000 deductible policies | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | | 2006-2009 | |
| | $50,000 deductible policies | | | 50 | | | | 92 | | | | 65 | | | | 49 | | | | 256 | |
2003-2005 avg | | Ultimate excluding 50K deductible | | | 189 | | | | 172 | | | | 106 | | | | 73 | | | | | |
$ | 7,904 | | Average Claim @ $250K | | Last 5 | | $ | 10,549 | | | $ | 10,756 | | | $ | 20,880 | | | $ | 9,836 | | | | | |
$ | 7,770 | | | | Last 3 | | $ | 9,876 | | | $ | 9,709 | | | $ | 19,256 | | | $ | 9,845 | | | | | |
$ | 7,714 | | | | Last 2 | | $ | 10,053 | | | $ | 9,656 | | | $ | 18,283 | | | $ | 8,805 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$ | 8,902 | | Average Claim @ $350K | | Last 5 | | $ | 11,020 | | | $ | 12,623 | | | $ | 23,099 | | | $ | 10,272 | | | | | |
$ | 8,791 | | | | Last 3 | | $ | 10,453 | | | $ | 11,282 | | | $ | 21,389 | | | $ | 10,557 | | | | | |
$ | 8,780 | | | | Last 2 | | $ | 10,524 | | | $ | 11,367 | | | $ | 20,220 | | | $ | 9,508 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$ | 10,277 | | Average Claim @ $500K | | Last 5 | | $ | 11,639 | | | $ | 15,731 | | | $ | 26,709 | | | $ | 10,734 | | | | | |
$ | 10,222 | | | | Last 3 | | $ | 11,213 | | | $ | 13,977 | | | $ | 25,126 | | | $ | 11,647 | | | | | |
$ | 10,303 | | | | Last 2 | | $ | 11,095 | | | $ | 14,432 | | | $ | 24,260 | | | $ | 10,816 | | | | | |
file=Exh 11 AutoLiab IBNRsum 12-09.xls
Exhibit 11
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Auto Liability IBNR Summary
Average of Last 5 Loss Development Factors
Accident | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Years | | @ $100K | | | @ $200K | | | @ $250K | | | @ $350K | | | @ $500K | | | Selected | |
1996+prior | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | |
1997 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
1998 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
1999 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2000 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2001 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2002 | | $ | 44 | | | $ | 44 | | | $ | 45 | | | $ | 47 | | | $ | 50 | | | $ | 45 | |
2003 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2004 | | $ | -31,471 | | | $ | -10,550 | | | $ | -9,623 | | | $ | -7,950 | | | $ | -5,918 | | | $ | -9,623 | |
2005 | | $ | -23,870 | | | $ | -17,622 | | | $ | -23,544 | | | $ | 17,679 | | | $ | 90,225 | | | $ | -23,544 | |
2006 | | $ | -5,561 | | | $ | 77,067 | | | $ | 98,149 | | | $ | 187,128 | | | $ | 304,189 | | | $ | 142,638 | |
2007 | | $ | 75,276 | | | $ | 237,761 | | | $ | 278,693 | | | $ | 380,911 | | | $ | 584,880 | | | $ | 437,971 | |
2008 | | $ | 272,704 | | | $ | 660,770 | | | $ | 734,716 | | | $ | 862,395 | | | $ | 1,083,803 | | | $ | 1,013,986 | |
2009 | | $ | 240,716 | | | $ | 381,784 | | | $ | 398,807 | | | $ | 430,580 | | | $ | 464,296 | | | $ | 450,544 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 527,839 | | | $ | 1,329,255 | | | $ | 1,477,243 | | | $ | 1,870,790 | | | $ | 2,521,525 | | | $ | 2,012,016 | |
Average of Last 3 Loss Development Factors
Accident | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Years | | @ $100K | | | @ $200K | | | @ $250K | | | @ $350K | | | @ $500K | | | Selected | |
1996+prior | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
1998 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
1999 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2000 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2001 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2002 | | $ | 72 | | | $ | 72 | | | $ | 74 | | | $ | 78 | | | $ | 82 | | | $ | 74 | |
2003 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2004 | | $ | -53,021 | | | $ | -18,898 | | | $ | -17,322 | | | $ | -14,474 | | | $ | -11,012 | | | $ | -17,322 | |
2005 | | $ | -70,106 | | | $ | -93,371 | | | $ | -108,815 | | | $ | -52,677 | | | $ | 57,125 | | | $ | -108,815 | |
2006 | | $ | -89,139 | | | $ | -40,253 | | | $ | -28,963 | | | $ | 80,083 | | | $ | 223,572 | | | $ | 25,560 | |
2007 | | $ | -48,412 | | | $ | 92,706 | | | $ | 98,323 | | | $ | 149,059 | | | $ | 282,748 | | | $ | 190,036 | |
2008 | | $ | 107,257 | | | $ | 482,016 | | | $ | 562,965 | | | $ | 681,585 | | | $ | 916,366 | | | $ | 845,686 | |
2009 | | $ | 210,887 | | | $ | 379,961 | | | $ | 399,478 | | | $ | 451,367 | | | $ | 530,773 | | | $ | 503,201 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 57,539 | | | $ | 802,235 | | | $ | 905,742 | | | $ | 1,295,022 | | | $ | 1,999,655 | | | $ | 1,438,421 | |
Average of Last 2 Loss Development Factors
Accident | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Years | | @ $100K | | | @ $200K | | | @ $250K | | | @ $350K | | | @ $500K | | | Selected | |
1996+prior | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
1998 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
1999 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2000 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 0 | |
2001 | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 1 | | | $ | 1 | |
2002 | | $ | 109 | | | $ | 109 | | | $ | 111 | | | $ | 117 | | | $ | 124 | | | $ | 111 | |
2003 | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 0 | |
2004 | | $ | -43,263 | | | $ | -42,087 | | | $ | -39,576 | | | $ | -35,073 | | | $ | -29,562 | | | $ | -39,576 | |
2005 | | $ | -70,846 | | | $ | -108,421 | | | $ | -129,060 | | | $ | -43,341 | | | $ | 127,269 | | | $ | -129,060 | |
2006 | | $ | -94,089 | | | $ | -14,325 | | | $ | 4,375 | | | $ | 93,395 | | | $ | 201,418 | | | $ | 48,885 | |
2007 | | $ | -67,548 | | | $ | 62,272 | | | $ | 89,243 | | | $ | 163,581 | | | $ | 361,128 | | | $ | 224,270 | |
2008 | | $ | 63,107 | | | $ | 379,228 | | | $ | 460,021 | | | $ | 557,990 | | | $ | 824,786 | | | $ | 751,833 | |
2009 | | $ | 177,636 | | | $ | 310,105 | | | $ | 323,743 | | | $ | 374,954 | | | $ | 470,249 | | | $ | 439,482 | |
Total | | $ | -34,892 | | | $ | 586,883 | | | $ | 708,859 | | | $ | 1,111,627 | | | $ | 1,955,413 | | | $ | 1,295,947 | |
Note 1: For 2006, fraction of premium for $350K attachment has increased by quarter as follows:
| 1st Qtr | | | 2nd Qtr | | | 3rdQtr | | | 4th Qtr | | | Total Year | |
| | 0.0% | | | | 26.2% | | | | 70.9% | | | | 61.2% | | | | 42.3% | |
Use 50% weighting of $350K and $250K for 2006, because of higher amount of IBNR in more recent accident quarters.
Note 2: Actual premium weights for 2007 are: 22% for $250K attachment and 78% for $350K/$500K attachment. Use 22% weighting of $250K and 78% of $350K/$500K for 2007.
Further split the $350K/$500K category 50% in $500K and 50% in $350K, because difference between first half and second half of the year is not as important after one more year of development
| $250K | | | $350K | | | $500K | | | Total | |
| | 22% | | | | 39% | | | | 39% | | | | 100% | |
Note 3: Corrected premium weights for 2008 are: 80% at $500K attachment and 20% at $250K attachment Actual premium weights for 2009 are: 79% at $500K attachment and 21% at $250K attachment
Exhibit 11A
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Projection of Auto Liability 2008 Accident Year Using Quarterly Loss Development Factors
Projections at the $600,000 and $250,000 reinsurance attachment points
file = quarterly dev results 1209.xls
sheet = at 500k
| | Net Paid | | | Net Reserve | | | Total Inc | | | | Exc 500K | | | Inc 500K | | | Exc 250K | | | | | | Net Paid | | | Net Reserve | | | Total Inc | | | Exc 500K | | | Inc 500K | | | Exc 250K | | | Inc 250K | |
| | At the Respective Year-Ends 12/04 thru 12/09 | | | At of 12/31/2009 | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2009 | | $ | 25,385 | | | $ | 12,436 | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | | | $ | 25,385 | | | $ | 12,436 | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | |
3rd Qtr 2009 | | $ | 17,349 | | | $ | 44,474 | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | | | $ | 17,349 | | | $ | 44,474 | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | |
2nd Qtr 2009 | | $ | 3,021 | | | $ | 36,950 | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | | | $ | 3,021 | | | $ | 36,950 | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | |
1st Qtr 2009 | | $ | 34,635 | | | $ | 143,616 | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | | | $ | 34,635 | | | $ | 143,616 | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | |
4th Qtr 2008 | | $ | 10,475 | | | $ | 58,360 | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 68,835 | | | | | | $ | 68,835 | | | $ | 45,535 | | | $ | 69,372 | | | $ | 114,907 | | | | | | $ | 114,907 | | | | | | $ | 114,907 | |
3rd Qtr 2008 | | $ | 1,852 | | | $ | 22,101 | | | $ | 23,952 | | | | | | | $ | 23,952 | | | | | | $ | 23,952 | | | $ | 42,152 | | | $ | 66,802 | | | $ | 106,854 | | | | | | $ | 108,954 | | | | | | $ | 108,954 | |
2nd Qtr 2008 | | $ | 10,763 | | | $ | 117,433 | | | $ | 128,196 | | | | | | | $ | 128,196 | | | | | | $ | 128,196 | | | $ | 42,705 | | | $ | 200,000 | | | $ | 242,705 | | | | | | $ | 242,705 | | | | | | $ | 242,705 | |
1st Qtr 2008 | | $ | 183,190 | | | $ | 810,765 | | | $ | 993,955 | | 3/11/2006 | | $ | 5,248 | | | $ | 988,707 | | | $ | 267,626 | | | $ | 726,329 | | | $ | 557,772 | | | $ | 721,751 | | | $ | 1,278,523 | | | $ | 5,347 | | | $ | 1,274,176 | | | $ | 272,676 | | | $ | 1,006,847 | |
4th Qtr 2007 | | $ | 6,358 | | | $ | 39,258 | | | $ | 45,825 | | | | | | | | $ | 45,625 | | | | | | | $ | 45,625 | | | $ | 108,238 | | | $ | 76,591 | | | $ | 184,829 | | | | | | | $ | 184,829 | | | | | | | $ | 184,829 | |
3rd Qtr 2007 | | $ | 32,845 | | | $ | 127,474 | | | $ | 160,319 | | | | | | | | $ | 180,319 | | | | | | | $ | 160,319 | | | $ | 201,702 | | | $ | 73,116 | | | $ | 274,618 | | | | | | | $ | 274,818 | | | | | | | $ | 274,818 | |
2nd Qtr 2007 | | $ | 14,742 | | | $ | 140,609 | | | $ | 155,551 | | | | | | | | $ | 155,551 | | | | | | | $ | 155,551 | | | $ | 102,931 | | | $ | 223,752 | | | $ | 326,683 | | | | | | | $ | 326,683 | | | | | | | $ | 326,683 | |
1st Qtr 2007 | | $ | 73,113 | | | $ | 398,459 | | | $ | 471,571 | | | | | | | | $ | 471,571 | | | | | | | $ | 471,571 | | | $ | 1,472,883 | | | $ | 158,817 | | | $ | 1,631,700 | | | $ | 293,390 | | | $ | 1,338,310 | | | $ | 844,066 | | | $ | 787,634 | |
4th Qtr 2006 | | $ | 456 | | | $ | 131,160 | | | $ | 131,813 | | | | | | | | $ | 131,617 | | | | | | | $ | 131,617 | | | $ | 619,646 | | | $ | 336,836 | | | $ | 956,482 | | | | | | | $ | 856,482 | | | $ | 52 | | | $ | 956,430 | |
3rd Qtr 2006 | | $ | 34,194 | | | $ | 137,025 | | | $ | 171,218 | | | | | | | | $ | 171,218 | | | | | | | $ | 171,218 | | | $ | 325,037 | | | $ | 13,000 | | | $ | 338,037 | | | | | | | $ | 338,037 | | | | | | | $ | 338,037 | |
2nd Qtr 2006 | | $ | 29,142 | | | $ | $149,717 | | | $ | 178,859 | | | | | | | | $ | 176,859 | | | | | | | $ | 178,859 | | | $ | 312,716 | | | $ | 16,750 | | | $ | 329,466 | | | | | | | $ | 329,466 | | | | | | | $ | 329,466 | |
1st Qtr 2006 | | $ | 55,190 | | | $ | 146,285 | | | $ | 201,475 | | | | | | | | $ | 201,475 | | | | | | | $ | 201,475 | | | $ | 268,888 | | | $ | 2,953 | | | $ | 271,641 | | | | | | | $ | 271,641 | | | | | | | $ | 271,641 | |
4th Qtr 2005 | | $ | 16,610 | | | $ | 132,795 | | | $ | 49,405 | | | | | | | | $ | 149,405 | | | | | | | $ | 149,405 | | | $ | 411,002 | | | $ | 528,019 | | | $ | 939,021 | | | $ | 5,591 | | | $ | 933,430 | | | $ | 285,131 | | | $ | 653,890 | |
3rd Qtr 2005 | | $ | 37,415 | | | $ | 134,815 | | | $ | 172,231 | | | | | | | | $ | 172,231 | | | | | | | $ | 172,231 | | | $ | 774,683 | | | $ | 5,000 | | | $ | 779,683 | | | $ | 185,091 | | | $ | 594,592 | | | $ | 443,635 | | | $ | 336,048 | |
2nd Qtr 2005 | | $ | 65,747 | | | $ | 752,205 | | | $ | 817,952 | | 5/31/2005 | | $ | 176,344 | | | $ | 641,608 | | | $ | 435,672 | | | $ | 382,280 | | | $ | 551,289 | | | $ | 1,000,000 | | | $ | 1,551,289 | | | $ | 532,075 | | | $ | 1,019,214 | | | $ | 860 404 | | | $ | 690,885 | |
1st Qtr 2005 | | $ | 96,962 | | | $ | 71,847 | | | $ | 168,810 | | | | | | | | $ | 168,810 | | | | | | | $ | 168,810 | | | $ | 302,433 | | | $ | 4,100 | | | $ | 306,533 | | | | | | | $ | 306,533 | | | | | | | $ | 306,533 | |
4th Qtr 2004 | | $ | 28,980 | | | $ | 68,649 | | | $ | 97,629 | | | | | | | | $ | 87,829 | | | | | | | $ | 87,629 | | | $ | 364,279 | | | $ | 40,000 | | | $ | 404,279 | | | | | | | $ | 404,279 | | | | | | | $ | 404,279 | |
3rd Qtr 2004 | | $ | 43,343 | | | $ | 85,150 | | | $ | 128,492 | | | | | | | | $ | 128,492 | | | | | | | $ | 128,492 | | | $ | 377,045 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 377,045 | | | | | | | $ | 377,045 | | | | | | | $ | 377,045 | |
2nd Qtr 2004 | | $ | 174,605 | | | $ | 73,628 | | | $ | 248,233 | | | | | | | | $ | 248,233 | | | | | | | $ | 248,233 | | | $ | 412,167 | | | $ | 6,845 | | | $ | 419,012 | | | | | | | $ | 419,012 | | | | | | | $ | 419,012 | |
1st Qtr 2004 | | $ | 905,955 | | | $ | 382,407 | | | $ | 1,268,362 | | 3/1/2004 | | $ | 360,155 | | | $ | 908,207 | | | $ | 617,408 | | | $ | 650,954 | | | $ | 1,339,159 | | | $ | 126,429 | | | $ | 1,465,586 | | | $ | 360,155 | | | $ | 1,105,434 | | | $ | 617,408 | | | $ | 848,180 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Inc 500K | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Inc 500K | | | | | | | | | |
Calculations for the $600,000 Reinsurance Attachment
| | (1) | | | (2) | | | (3) | | | (4) | | | (5) | |
| | | | | Remaining | | | | | | Selected | | | | |
Quarterly Development Factors at 500K | | | Annual Factor | | | | | | at $500K | | | Ultimate for 2009 | |
4th Qtr 2004 | | | 0.24 | | | | 1.003 | | | | 0.24 | | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2005 | | | 0.16 | | | | 0.969 | | | | 0.16 | | | | 0.22 | | | | 0.18 | | | $ | 210,120 | |
4th Qtr 2006 | | | 0.14 | | | | 0.862 | | | | 0.12 | | | | 0.18 | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2007 | | | 0.25 | | | | 0.784 | | | | 0.19 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2008 | | | 0.60 | | | | 0.616 | | | | 0.37 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2004 | | | 0.34 | | | | 1.003 | | | | 0.34 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2005 | | | 0.29 | | | | 0.969 | | | | 0.28 | | | | 0.33 | | | | 0.35 | | | $ | 176,638 | |
3rd Qtr 2006 | | | 0.51 | | | | 0.862 | | | | 0.44 | | | | 0.38 | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2007 | | | 0.58 | | | | 0.784 | | | | 0.46 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2008 | | | 0.22 | | | | 0.616 | | | | 0.14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2004 | | | 0.59 | | | | 1.003 | | | | 0.59 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2005 | | | 0.63 | | | | 0.969 | | | | 0.61 | | | | 0.47 | | | | 0.50 | | | $ | 79,944 | |
2nd Qtr 2006 | | | 0.54 | | | | 0.862 | | | | 0.47 | | | | 0.51 | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2007 | | | 0.48 | | | | 0.784 | | | | 0.37 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2008 | | | 0.53 | | | | 0.616 | | | | 0.33 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2004 | | | 0.82 | | | | 1.003 | | | | 0.82 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2005 | | | 0.74 | | | | 0.969 | | | | 0.72 | | | | 0.59 | | | | 0.60 | | | $ | 297,085 | |
1st Qtr 200S | | | 0.74 | | | | 0.862 | | | | 0.64 | | | | 0.61 | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2007 | | | 0.35 | | | | 0.784 | | | | 0.28 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2008 | | | 0.78 | | | | 0.616 | | | | 0.48 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | Average = | | | | 0.408 | | | $ | 763,787 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 317,868 | 2009 reported |
| | | | | | | Actual annual factor = | | | | 0.406 | | | $ | 782,926 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | Dollar Change in IBNR = | | | $ | 19,139 | |
(1) is Reported at the respective year-end divided by Reported at 12/09 for that accident quarter
(2) is the remaining development factor at 12/09 – from Exhibit 7 (Avg 5)
(3) is (1) * (2). This adjustment includes the remaining tall development – from 12/09 to ultimate.
(4) is our selected quarterly development factor
(5) is the quarterly reported at 12/09 divided by (4) to give a quarterly ultimate
Exhibit 11A
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Projection of Auto Liability 2008 Accident Year Using Quarterly Loss Development Factors
Projections at the $500,000 and $250,000 reinsurance attachment points
file = quarterly dev results 1208.xls
sheet = at 250K
| | Net Paid | | | Net Reserve | | | Total Inc | | | | Exc 500K | | | Inc 500K | | | Exc 250K | | | Inc 250K | | | Net Paid | | | Net Reserve | | | Total Inc | | | Exc 500K | | | Inc 500K | | | Exc 250K | | | Inc 250K | |
| | At the Respective Year-Ends 12/04 thru 12/09 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | As of 12/31/2009 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2009 | | $ | 25,385 | | | $ | 12,436 | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | | | $ | 25,385 | | | $ | 12,438 | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | | | | | | $ | 37,822 | |
3rd Qtr 2009 | | $ | 17,349 | | | $ | 44,474 | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | | | $ | 17,349 | | | $ | 44,474 | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | | | | | | $ | 61,823 | |
2nd Qtr 2009 | | $ | 3,021 | | | $ | 36,950 | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | | | $ | 3,021 | | | $ | 36,950 | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | | | | | | $ | 39,972 | |
1st Qtr 2009 | | $ | 34,635 | | | $ | 143,616 | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | | | $ | 34,635 | | | $ | 143,616 | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | | | | | | $ | 178,251 | |
4th Qtr 2008 | | $ | 10,475 | | | $ | 58,360 | | | $ | 68,836 | | | | | | | $ | 68,836 | | | | | | $ | 68,835 | | | $ | 45,535 | | | $ | 69,372 | | | $ | 114,907 | | | | | | $ | 114,907 | | | | | | $ | 114,907 | |
3rd Qtr 2008 | | $ | 1,652 | | | $ | 22,101 | | | $ | 23,952 | | | | | | | $ | 23,952 | | | | | | $ | 23,952 | | | $ | 42,152 | | | $ | 66,802 | | | $ | 108,954 | | | | | | $ | 108,954 | | | | | | $ | 108,954 | |
2nd Qtr 2008 | | $ | 10,763 | | | $ | 117,433 | | | $ | 128,196 | | | | | | | $ | 128,196 | | | | | | $ | 128,196 | | | $ | 42,705 | | | $ | 200,000 | | | $ | 242,705 | | | | | | $ | 242,705 | | | | | | $ | 242,705 | |
1st Qtr 2008 | | $ | 163,190 | | | $ | 810,765 | | | $ | 993,955 | | 3/11/2008 | | $ | 5,248 | | | $ | 988,707 | | | $ | 267,626 | | | $ | 726,328 | | | $ | 557,772 | | | $ | 721,751 | | | $ | 1,279,523 | | | $ | 5,347 | | | $ | 1,274,176 | | | $ | 272,676 | | | $ | 1,006,847 | |
4th Qtr 2007 | | $ | 6,388 | | | $ | 39,258 | | | $ | 45,625 | | | | | | | | $ | 45,625 | | | | | | | $ | 45,625 | | | $ | 108,238 | | | $ | 76,591 | | | $ | 164,829 | | | | | | | $ | 184,829 | | | | | | | $ | 184,829 | |
3rd Qtr 2007 | | $ | 32,845 | | | $ | 127,474 | | | $ | 160,319 | | | | | | | | $ | 160,319 | | | | | | | $ | 160,319 | | | $ | 201,702 | | | $ | 73,116 | | | $ | 274,818 | | | | | | | $ | 274,818 | | | | | | | $ | 274,818 | |
2nd Qtr 2007 | | $ | 14,742 | | | $ | 140,809 | | | $ | 155,551 | | | | | | | | $ | 155,551 | | | | | | | $ | 155,551 | | | $ | 102,931 | | | $ | 223,752 | | | $ | 326,663 | | | | | | | $ | 326,683 | | | | | | | $ | 326,683 | |
1st Qtr 2007 | | $ | 73,113 | | | $ | 398,459 | | | $ | 471,571 | | | | | | | | $ | 471,571 | | | | | | | $ | 471,671 | | | $ | 1,472,883 | | | $ | 156,817 | | | $ | 1,631,700 | | | $ | 293,390 | | | $ | 1,338,310 | | | $ | 844,066 | | | $ | 787,634 | |
4th Qtr 2006 | | $ | 456 | | | $ | 131,160 | | | $ | 131,617 | | | | | | | | $ | 131,617 | | | | | | | $ | 131,617 | | | $ | 619,646 | | | $ | 336,836 | | | $ | 956,482 | | | | | | | $ | 956,482 | | | $ | 52 | | | $ | 956,430 | |
3rd Qtr 2006 | | $ | 34,194 | | | $ | 137,025 | | | $ | 171,218 | | | | | | | | $ | 171,218 | | | | | | | $ | 171,218 | | | $ | 325,037 | | | $ | 13,000 | | | $ | 338,037 | | | | | | | $ | 338,037 | | | | | | | $ | 338,037 | |
2nd Qtr 2006 | | $ | 29,142 | | | $ | 149,717 | | | $ | 178,859 | | | | | | | | $ | 178,859 | | | | | | | $ | 178,859 | | | $ | 312,716 | | | $ | 16,750 | | | $ | 329,466 | | | | | | | $ | 329,466 | | | | | | | $ | 329,466 | |
1st Qtr 2006 | | $ | 55,190 | | | $ | 146,285 | | | $ | 201,475 | | | | | | | | $ | 201,475 | | | | | | | $ | 201,475 | | | $ | 268,688 | | | $ | 2,953 | | | $ | 271,641 | | | | | | | $ | 271,641 | | | | | | | $ | 271,641 | |
4th Qtr 2005 | | $ | 16,610 | | | $ | 132,795 | | | $ | 149,405 | | | | | | | | $ | 149,405 | | | | | | | $ | 149,405 | | | $ | 411,002 | | | $ | 528,019 | | | $ | 939,021 | | | $ | 5,591 | | | $ | 933,430 | | | $ | 285,131 | | | $ | 653,800 | |
3rd Qtr 2005 | | $ | 37,415 | | | $ | 134,815 | | | $ | 172,231 | | | | | | | | $ | 172,231 | | | | | | | $ | 172,231 | | | $ | 774,683 | | | $ | 5,000 | | | $ | 779,683 | | | $ | 185,091 | | | $ | 594,592 | | | $ | 443,635 | | | $ | 336,048 | |
2nd Qtr 2005 | | $ | 65,747 | | | $ | 752,205 | | | $ | 817,952 | | 5/31/2005 | | $ | 176,344 | | | $ | 641,608 | | | $ | 435,672 | | | $ | 382,280 | | | $ | 551,289 | | | $ | 1,000,000 | | | $ | 1,551,289 | | | $ | 532,075 | | | $ | 1,019,214 | | | $ | 860,404 | | | $ | 690,885 | |
1st Qtr 2005 | | $ | 96,962 | | | $ | 71,847 | | | $ | 168,810 | | | | | | | | $ | 168,810 | | | | | | | $ | 168,810 | | | $ | 302,433 | | | $ | 4,100 | | | $ | 306,533 | | | | | | | $ | 306,533 | | | | | | | $ | 306,533 | |
4th Qtr 2004 | | $ | 28,980 | | | $ | 68,649 | | | $ | 97,629 | | | | | | | | $ | 97,629 | | | | | | | $ | 97,629 | | | $ | 364,279 | | | $ | 40,000 | | | $ | 404,279 | | | | | | | $ | 404,279 | | | | | | | $ | 404,279 | |
3rd Qtr 2004 | | $ | 43,343 | | | $ | 85,150 | | | $ | 128,492 | | | | | | | | $ | 128,492 | | | | | | | $ | 128,492 | | | $ | 377,045 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 377,045 | | | | | | | $ | 377,045 | | | | | | | $ | 377,045 | |
2nd Qtr 2004 | | $ | 174,605 | | | $ | 73,628 | | | $ | 248,233 | | | | | | | | $ | 248,233 | | | | | | | $ | 248,233 | | | $ | 412,167 | | | $ | 6,845 | | | $ | 419,012 | | | | | | | $ | 419,012 | | | | | | | $ | 419,012 | |
1st Qtr 2004 | | $ | 905,955 | | | $ | 362,407 | | | $ | 1,268,362 | | 3/1/2004 | | $ | 360,155 | | | $ | 908,207 | | | $ | 617,408 | | | $ | 650,954 | | | $ | 1,339,159 | | | $ | 126,429 | | | $ | 1,465,588 | | | $ | 360,155 | | | $ | 1,105,434 | | | $ | 617,408 | | | $ | 848,180 | |
Calculations for the $250,000 Reinsurance Attachment | |
| | | (1) | | | (2) | | | (3) | | | | (4) | | | (5) | |
| | | | | | Remaining | | | Factor | | | | Selected | | | | |
Quarterly Development Factors at 250K | | | Annual Factor | | | to Ultimate | | | | at $250K | | | Ultimate for 2009 | |
4th Qtr 2004 | | | 0.24 | | | | 1.004 | | | | 0.24 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2005 | | | 0.23 | | | | 0.993 | | | | 0.23 | | | | 0.24 | | | | 0.20 | | | $ | 189,108 | |
4th Qtr 2006 | | | 0.14 | | | | 0.910 | | | | 0.13 | | | | 0.20 | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2007 | | | 0.26 | | | | 0.825 | | | | 0.20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
4th Qtr 2008 | | | 0.60 | | | | 0.647 | | | | 0.39 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2004 | | | 0.34 | | | | 1.004 | | | | 0.34 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2005 | | | 0.51 | | | | 0.993 | | | | 0.51 | | | | 0.39 | | | | 0.42 | | | $ | 147,198 | |
3rd Qtr 2006 | | | 0.51 | | | | 0.910 | | | | 0.46 | | | | 0.45 | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2007 | | | 0.58 | | | | 0.825 | | | | 0.48 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3rd Qtr 2008 | | | 0.22 | | | | 0.647 | | | | 0.14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2004 | | | 0.59 | | | | 1.004 | | | | 0.59 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2005 | | | 0.55 | | | | 0.993 | | | | 0.55 | | | | 0.47 | | | | 0.51 | | | $ | 78,376 | |
2nd Qtr 2006 | | | 0.54 | | | | 0.910 | | | | 0.49 | | | | 0.51 | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2007 | | | 0.48 | | | | 0.625 | | | | 0.39 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2nd Qtr 2008 | | | 0.53 | | | | 0.647 | | | | 0.34 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2004 | | | 0.77 | | | | 1.004 | | | | 0.77 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2005 | | | 0.74 | | | | 0.993 | | | | 0.74 | | | | 0.63 | | | | 0.65 | | | $ | 274,232 | |
1st Qtr 2006 | | | 0.74 | | | | 0.910 | | | | 0.67 | | | | 0.67 | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2007 | | | 0.60 | | | | 0.825 | | | | 0.49 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1st Qtr 2008 | | | 0.72 | | | | 0.647 | | | | 0.47 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Average = | | | | 0.445 | | | $ | 688,915 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 317,868 2009 reported | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Actual annual factor = | | | | 0.444 | | | $ | 715,919 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Change = | | | $ | -27,004 | |
(1) | is Reported at the respective year-end divided by Reported at 12/09 for that accident quarter |
(2) | is the remaining development factor at 12/09 – from Exhibit #5 (Avg 5) |
(3) | is (1) * (2). This adjustment includes the remaining tail development – from 12/09 to ultimate. |
(4) | is our selected quarterly development factor |
(5) | is the quarterly reported at 12/09 divided by (4) to give a quarterly ultimate |
Exhibit 12
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/2009
Auto Liability – Calculation of Alternate IBNR for Policies with $50,000 Deductibles
fi1e=2009 50000 ded.xls | PAGE 1 |
sheet = IBNR calc | |
On this sheet, we calculate IBNR as if these claims were all at a $5,000 deductible, and compare this with the IBNR actually produced in our Exhibit 1-7 triangles for this block of business
| | | | | Accident Year | | | | | | | | | | Accident Year | | | | | | | |
| | Total | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
Paid at $50K | | $ | 904,288 | | | $ | 238,435 | | | $ | 599,016 | | | $ | 66,837 | | | $ | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Reserve at $50K | | $ | 388,496 | | | $ | 86,821 | | | $ | 202,227 | | | $ | 79,447 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Paid+Res at $50K | | $ | 1,292,784 | | | $ | 325,256 | | | $ | 801,243 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Adjust Pd at $5K | | $ | 1,643,256 | | | $ | 457,428 | | | $ | 907,837 | | | $ | 236,890 | | | $ | 41,101 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Adjust Res at $5k | | $ | 887,247 | | | $ | 112,416 | | | $ | 399,355 | | | $ | 292,326 | | | $ | 83,149 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Paid & Case at $5K | | $ | 2,530,502 | | | $ | 569,844 | | | $ | 1,307,192 | | | $ | 529,216 | | | $ | 124,250 | | | | $ | 325,256 | | | $ | 801,243 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | | |
Loss Development %'s for Avg Last 5 | | | | | | | 0.913 | | | | 0.805 | | | | 0.619 | | | | 0.407 | | | | | 0.913 | | | | 0.805 | | | | 0.619 | | | | 0.407 | | | | |
Ultimate at $5K level | | | | | | $ | 624,144 | | | $ | 1,624,851 | | | $ | 854,953 | | | $ | 305,283 | | | | $ | 356,250 | | | $ | 995,951 | | | $ | 236,323 | | | $ | 49,143 | | | | |
IBNR at $5K level | | $ | 878,729 | | | $ | 54,301 | | | $ | 317,658 | | | $ | 325,737 | | | $ | 181,033 | | | | $ | 30,994 | | | $ | 194,708 | | | $ | 90,039 | | | $ | 29,142 | | | $ | 344,883 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | IBNR already in the Avg Last 5 $350K triangle | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | (for 2006-07) and the Avg Last 5 $500K triangle (2007-09) | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Possible Addn IBNR | | $ | 23,307 | | | $ | 122,950 | | | $ | 235,698 | | | $ | 151,891 | | | $ | 533,846 | |
Exhibit 12
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/2009
Auto Liability – Calculation of Alternate IBNR for Policies with $50,000 Deductibles
file=2009 50000 ded.xls | PAGE 2 |
sheet = RAA IBNR | |
On this sheet, we calculate IBNR for these $50,000 deductible policies using Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) Excess-of-Loss IBNR factors – and compare this to the Exhibit 1-7 IBNR
| | Accident Years | |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
Paid at $50K | | $ | 238,435 | | | $ | 599,016 | | | $ | 66,837 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 904,288 | |
Reserve at $50K | | $ | 86,821 | | | $ | 202,227 | | | $ | 79,447 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | $ | 388,496 | |
Paid+Res at $50K | | $ | 325,256 | | | $ | 801,243 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | $ | 1,292,784 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
RAA Excess Auto Liability development factor = | | | 0.79 | | | | 0.68 | | | | 0.50 | | | | 0.20 | | | | | |
Ultimate per RAA | | $ | 411,716 | | | $ | 1,178,298 | | | $ | 292,568 | | | $ | 100,005 | | | $ | 1,982,588 | |
IBNR per RAA | | $ | 86,460 | | | $ | 377,055 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 80,004 | | | $ | 689,804 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR already in development triangle (avg last 5 version) | | $ | 30,994 | | | $ | 194,708 | | | $ | 90,039 | | | $ | 29,142 | | | $ | 344,883 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Possible Additional IBNR===> | | $ | 55,467 | | | $ | 182,347 | | | $ | 56,245 | | | $ | 50,863 | | | $ | 344,921 | |
Exhibit 12
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/2009
Auto Liability – Calculation of Alternate IBNR for Policies with $50,000 Deductibles
file=2009 50000 ded.xls | PAGE 3 |
sheet = RAA IBNR & ELR IBNR | |
On this sheet, we calculate IBNR for these $50,000 deductible policies using Reinsurance Association of America (RAA) Excess-of-Loss IBNR factors – but we also include an additional IBNR for the 2008 accident year based on an Expected Loss Ratio
| | Accident Years | |
| | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
Paid at $50K | | $ | 238,435 | | | $ | 599,016 | | | $ | 66,837 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 904,288 | |
Reserve at $50K | | $ | 86,821 | | | $ | 202,227 | | | $ | 79,447 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | $ | 388,496 | |
Paid+Res at $50K | | $ | 325,256 | | | $ | 801,243 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 20,001 | | | $ | 1,292,784 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
RAA Excess Auto Liability development factor | | | 0.79 | | | | 0.68 | | | | 0.50 | | | | 0.20 | | | | | |
Ultimate per RAA | | $ | 411,716 | | | $ | 1,178,298 | | | $ | 292,568 | | | $ | 100,005 | | | $ | 1,982,588 | |
IBNR per RAA | | $ | 86,460 | | | $ | 377,055 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 80,004 | | | $ | 689,804 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net Earned Premium | | $ | 616,693 | | | $ | 599,647 | | | $ | 691,878 | | | $ | 551,144 | | | $ | 2,459,362 | |
Ultimate Loss Ratio | | | 66.8 | % | | | 196.5 | % | | | 42.3 | % | | | 18.1 | % | | | 80.6 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Additional IBNR to increase 2009 LR to 100% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 451,139 | | | $ | 451,139 | |
Total RAA & ELR IBNR | | $ | 86,460 | | | $ | 377,055 | | | $ | 146,284 | | | $ | 531,143 | | | $ | 1,140,943 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR already in development triangle (Avg 5 version) | | $ | 30,994 | | | $ | 194,708 | | | $ | 90,039 | | | $ | 29,142 | | | $ | 344,883 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Possible Additional IBNR ===> | | $ | 55,467 | | | $ | 182,347 | | | $ | 56,245 | | | $ | 502,001 | | | $ | 796,060 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 0 | |
Exhibit 13
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Projection of Collision IBNR
file = collision 2009.xls
Tab = triangle
| use average of last three loss development %'s in projecting ultimate for future accident quarter. |
Accident | | Paid plus | | | Case Reserves (losses and LAE) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | | +1 | | | | +2 | | | | +3 | | | | +4 | | | | +5 | | | | +6 | | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42969 | | | | 42969 | | | | 42969 | | | | 0 | |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 0 | |
1997 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 12000 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 0 | |
1998 | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1999 | | | 351710 | | | | 399338 | | | | 375880 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 0 | |
2000 | | | 630160 | | | | 714875 | | | | 684125 | | | | 672281 | | | | 672281 | | | | 672281 | | | | 672281 | | | | 667281 | | | | 667281 | | | | 0 | |
2001 | | | 402872 | | | | 399918 | | | | 399918 | | | | 405895 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 0 | |
2002 | | | 733790 | | | | 767283 | | | | 766886 | | | | 756187 | | | | 757170 | | | | 747170 | | | | 740454 | | | | 740454 | | | | 740454 | | | | 0 | |
2003 | | | 1089771 | | | | 1068943 | | | | 1049148 | | | | 1034451 | | | | 1011687 | | | | 1006437 | | | | 1006437 | | | | | | | | 1006187 | | | | -250 | |
2004 | | | 1010781 | | | | 1023165 | | | | 925732 | | | | 914598 | | | | 914298 | | | | 914148 | | | | | | | | | | | | 913348 | | | | -800 | |
2005 | | | 1431651 | | | | 1472608 | | | | 1433508 | | | | 1417686 | | | | 1409684 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1396150 | | | | -13534 | |
2006 | | | 1350587 | | | | 1185910 | | | | 1185380 | | | | 1129875 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1128725 | | | | -1150 | |
2007 | | | 1231157 | | | | 1284366 | | | | 1284551 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1281156 | | | | -3395 | |
2008 | | | 1022097 | | | | 1014527 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 994661 | | | | -19866 | |
2009 | | | 828027 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 779903 | | | | -48124 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Diagonal | | | 9864926 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9777608 | | | | -87118 | |
**Note: 2003-2009 ultimates capped at max(LD projection, paid to date). Only years 2005 and 2009 were NOT actually impacted by cap.
Accident | | Paid plus | | | Case Reserves at % of Ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | | +4 | | | | +5 | | | | +6 | | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1997 | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 86.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1998 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
1999 | | | 93.6 | % | | | 106.2 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2000 | | | 94.4 | % | | | 107.1 | % | | | 102.5 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2001 | | | 100.8 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | 101.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | 0.0 | % |
2002 | | | 99.1 | % | | | 103.6 | % | | | 103.6 | % | | | 102.1 | % | | | 102.3 | % | | | 100.9 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2003 | | | 108.3 | % | | | 106.2 | % | | | 104.3 | % | | | 102.8 | % | | | 100.5 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2004 | | | 110.7 | % | | | 112.0 | % | | | 101.4 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -0.1 | % |
2005 | | | 102.5 | % | | | 105.5 | % | | | 102.7 | % | | | 101.5 | % | | | 101.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -1.0 | % |
2006 | | | 119.7 | % | | | 105.1 | % | | | 105.0 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -0.1 | % |
2007 | | | 96.1 | % | | | 100.3 | % | | | 100.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -0.3 | % |
2008 | | | 102.8 | % | | | 102.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -2.0 | % |
2009 | | | 106.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -6.2 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | Collision | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | Case | | | | | | Collision | |
Accident | | Earned | | | Ultimate | | | Loss & | | | Loss&ALAE | | | | | | Total | |
Year | | Premium | | | Loss+LAE | | | LAE Ratio | | | Reserves | | | IBNR | | | Reserves | |
1993 | | | | | | 42969 | | | | n/a | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1994 | | | | | | 0 | | | | n/a | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1995 | | | | | | 0 | | | | n/a | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1996 | | | | | | 37551 | | | | n/a | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1997 | | | | | | 13851 | | | | n/a | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1998 | | | 217236 | | | | 0 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1999 | | | 803790 | | | | 375879 | | | | 46.8 | % | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
2000 | | | 890279 | | | | 667281 | | | | 75.0 | % | | | 603 | | | | 0 | | | | 603 | |
2001 | | | 1147411 | | | | 399692 | | | | 34.8 | % | | | 687 | | | | 0 | | | | 687 | |
2002 | | | 1419900 | | | | 740454 | | | | 52.1 | % | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
2003 | | | 1426561 | | | | 1006187 | | | | 70.5 | % | | | 250 | | | | -250 | | | | 0 | |
2004 | | | 1561637 | | | | 913348 | | | | 58.5 | % | | | 800 | | | | -800 | | | | 0 | |
2005 | | | 1696238 | | | | 1396150 | | | | 82.3 | % | | | 22503 | | | | -13534 | | | | 8969 | |
2006 | | | 2422771 | | | | 1128725 | | | | 46.6 | % | | | 1150 | | | | -1150 | | | | 0 | |
2007 | | | 2243881 | | | | 1281156 | | | | 57.1 | % | | | 3395 | | | | -3395 | | | | 0 | |
2008 | | | 2048569 | | | | 994661 | | | | 48.6 | % | | | 19866 | | | | -19866 | | | | 0 | |
2009 | | | 1679928 | | | | 779903 | | | | 46.4 | % | | | 58647 | | | | -48124 | | | | 10523 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | | 17558201 | | | | 9777808 | | | | 55.7 | % | | | 107901 | | | | -87118 | | | | 20783 | |
Tot 98-05 | | | 9163052 | | | | 5498991 | | | | 60.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-06 | | | 11685823 | | | | 6627716 | | | | 57.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-07 | | | 13829704 | | | | 7908872 | | | | 57.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-08 | | | 15878273 | | | | 8903534 | | | | 56.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-09 | | | 17558201 | | | | 9683437 | | | | 55.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exhibit 13
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Projection of Collision IBNR
file = collision 2009.xls | | This alternate version uses paid+case as the ultimate for the 2003-2006 accident years. Loss development is ignored for |
Tab = alternate triangle | | these years. For 2007 and subsequent, use loss development ==> | | use average of last three loss development %'s in projecting ultimate for future accident quarter. |
Accident | | Paid plus Case Reserves (losses and LAE) | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | +4 | | | +5 | | | +6 | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42969 | | | | 42969 | | | | 42969 | | | | 0 | |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 37551 | | | | 0 | |
1997 | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 12000 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 13851 | | | | 0 | |
1998 | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | |
1999 | | | 351710 | | | | 399338 | | | | 375880 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 375879 | | | | 0 | |
2000 | | | 630160 | | | | 714875 | | | | 684125 | | | | 672281 | | | | 672281 | | | | 672281 | | | | 672281 | | | | 667281 | | | | 667281 | | | | 0 | |
2001 | | | 402872 | | | | 399918 | | | | 399918 | | | | 405895 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 399692 | | | | 0 | |
2002 | | | 733790 | | | | 767283 | | | | 766886 | | | | 756187 | | | | 757170 | | | | 747170 | | | | 740454 | | | | 740454 | | | | 740454 | | | | 0 | |
2003 | | | 1089771 | | | | 1068943 | | | | 1049148 | | | | 1034451 | | | | 1011687 | | | | 1006437 | | | | 1006437 | | | | | | | | 1006437 | | | | 0 | |
2004 | | | 1010781 | | | | 1023165 | | | | 925732 | | | | 914598 | | | | 914298 | | | | 914148 | | | | | | | | | | | | 914148 | | | | 0 | |
2005 | | | 1431651 | | | | 1472608 | | | | 1433508 | | | | 1417686 | | | | 1409684 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1409684 | | | | 0 | |
2006 | | | 1350587 | | | | 1185910 | | | | 1185380 | | | | 1129875 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1129875 | | | | 0 | |
2007 | | | 1231157 | | | | 1284366 | | | | 1284551 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1281156 | | | | -3395 | |
2008 | | | 1022097 | | | | 1014527 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 994661 | | | | -19866 | |
2009 | | | 828027 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780201 | | | | -47826 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Diagonal | | | 9864926 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9793839 | | | | -71087 | |
** Note: 2007-2009 ultimates capped at max(LD projection; paid to date). Years 2007 and 2008 are actually impacted by cap.
Accident | | Paid plus Case Reserves at % of Ultimate | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | +4 | | | +5 | | | +6 | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1997 | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 86.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1998 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
1999 | | | 93.6 | % | | | 106.2 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2000 | | | 94.4 | % | | | 107.1 | % | | | 102.5 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2001 | | | 100.8 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | 100.1 | % | | | 101.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2002 | | | 99.1 | % | | | 103.6 | % | | | 103.6 | % | | | 102.1 | % | | | 102.3 | % | | | 100.9 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2003 | | | 108.3 | % | | | 106.2 | % | | | 104.2 | % | | | 102.8 | % | | 100.5 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2004 | | | 110.6 | % | | | 111.9 | % | | | 101.3 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2005 | | | 101.6 | % | | | 104.5 | % | | | 101.7 | % | | | 100.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2006 | | | 119.5 | % | | | 105.0 | % | | | 104.9 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2007 | | | 96.1 | % | | | 100.3 | % | | | 100.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -0.3 | % |
2008 | | | 102.8 | % | | | 102.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -2.0 | % |
2009 | | | 106.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -6.1 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Collision | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Case | | | | | | Collision | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident | | Earned | | | Ultimate | | | Loss & | | | | | | Loss&ALAE | | | | | | Total | | | | | | | | | | |
Year | | Premium | | | Loss+LAE | | | LAE Ratio | | | | | | Reserves | | | IBNR | | | Reserves | | | | | | | | | | |
1993 | | | | | | 42969 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | | | | | 0 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | | | | | 0 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | | | | | 37551 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | | | | | 13851 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | | 217236 | | | | 0 | | | | 0.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | | 803790 | | | | 375879 | | | | 46.8 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | | 890279 | | | | 667281 | | | | 75.0 | % | | | | | | | 603 | | | | 0 | | | | 603 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | | 1147411 | | | | 399692 | | | | 34.8 | % | | | | | | | 687 | | | | 0 | | | | 687 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | | 1419900 | | | | 740454 | | | | 52.1 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | | 1426561 | | | | 1006437 | | | | 70.5 | % | | | | | | | 250 | | | | 0 | | | | 250 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2004 | | | 1561637 | | | | 914148 | | | | 58.5 | % | | | | | | | 800 | | | | 0 | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2005 | | | 1707205 | | | | 1409684 | | | | 82.6 | % | | | | | | | 22503 | | | | 0 | | | | 22503 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | | 2422771 | | | | 1129875 | | | | 46.6 | % | | | | | | | 1150 | | | | 0 | | | | 1150 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | | | 2243881 | | | | 1281156 | | | | 57.1 | % | | | | | | | 3395 | | | | -3395 | | | | 0 | �� | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2008 | | | 2048569 | | | | 994661 | | | | 48.6 | % | | | | | | | 19866 | | | | -19866 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2009 | | | 1679928 | | | | 780201 | | | | 46.4 | % | | | | | | | 58647 | | | | -47826 | | | | 10822 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | | 17569168 | | | | 9793839 | | | | 55.7 | % | | | | | | | 107901 | | | | -71087 | | | | 36815 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 96-05 | | | 9174019 | | | | 5513575 | | | | 60.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-06 | | | 11596790 | | | | 6643450 | | | | 57.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-07 | | | 13840671 | | | | 7924606 | | | | 57.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-08 | | | 15889240 | | | | 8919267 | | | | 56.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 98-09 | | | 17569168 | | | | 9699468 | | | | 55.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exhibit 14
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Projection of CARGO IBNR (after Deductible)
file = cargo 2009.xle | |
Tab = triangle | use average of last three loss development %'s |
| in projecting ultimate for future accident quarter. |
| |
Accident | | CARGO Paid plus Case Reserves (losses and LAE) after deductible & after Salvage+Recoveries | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | +4 | | | +5 | | | +6 | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1988 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18677 | | | | 18677 | | | | 0 | |
1989 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 379629 | | | | 379629 | | | | 0 | |
1990 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 160327 | | | | 160327 | | | | 0 | |
1991 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 106412 | | | | 106412 | | | | 0 | |
1992 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1592 | | | | 1592 | | | | 0 | |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 79570 | | | | 79570 | | | | 0 | |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7969 | | | | 7969 | | | | 0 | |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 53988 | | | | 53988 | | | | 53988 | | | | 0 | |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14915 | | | | 14915 | | | | 14915 | | | | 14915 | | | | 0 | |
1997 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 0 | |
1998 | | | | | | 86842 | | | | 91842 | | | | 112595 | | | | 112595 | | | | 112595 | | | | 107595 | | | | 107595 | | | | 107595 | | | | 0 | |
1999 | | | 6885 | | | | 9773 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 0 | |
2000 | | | 52652 | | | | 68355 | | | | 68355 | | | | 68355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 0 | |
2001 | | | 59701 | | | | 78518 | | | | 90065 | | | | 98296 | | | | 98558 | | | | 99269 | | | | 99269 | | | | 99269 | | | | 99269 | | | | 0 | |
2002 | | | 108460 | | | | 85203 | | | | 96203 | | | | 96203 | | | | 95203 | | | | 87703 | | | | 87704 | | | | 87704 | | | | 87704 | | | | 0 | |
2003 | | | 214548 | | | | 195376 | | | | 195376 | | | | 202837 | | | | 200558 | | | | 177958 | | | | 177958 | | | | | | | | 177958 | | | | 0 | |
2004 | | | 246300 | | | | 246169 | | | | 226190 | | | | 188690 | | | | 173690 | | | | 173690 | | | | | | | | | | | | 173691 | | | | 1 | |
2005 | | | 201016 | | | | 265372 | | | | 247710 | | | | 227483 | | | | 227483 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 227483 | | | | 0 | |
2006 | | | 211192 | | | | 279114 | | | | 254518 | | | | 254518 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 236676 | | | | -17842 | |
2007 | | | 115998 | | | | 127100 | | | | 120850 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 106995 | | | | -13855 | |
2008 | | | 122232 | | | | 130894 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 110953 | | | | -19741 | |
2009 | | | 167962 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 163699 | | | | -4263 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 2521107 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2465406 | | | | -55701 | |
Note: 2004-2009 ultimates are limited to Min(paid-to-date, loss dev ult). Years 2005 & 2007 are actually impacted by this cap.
Accident | | CARGO Paid plus Case Reserves (after Ded, Salvage & Recoveries) as % of Ultimate | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | +4 | | | +5 | | | +6 | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1988 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1989 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1990 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1991 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1992 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1997 | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1998 | | | | | | 80.7 | % | | | 85.4 | % | | | 104.6 | % | | | 104.6 | % | | | 104.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1999 | | | 70.4 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2000 | | | 98.7 | % | | | 128.1 | % | | | 128.1 | % | | | 128.1 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2001 | | | 60.1 | % | | | 79.1 | % | | | 90.7 | % | | | 99.0 | % | | | 99.3 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2002 | | | 123.7 | % | | | 97.1 | % | | | 109.7 | % | | | 109.7 | % | | | 108.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2003 | | | 120.6 | % | | | 109.8 | % | | | 109.8 | % | | | 114.0 | % | | | 112.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2004 | | | 141.8 | % | | | 141.7 | % | | | 130.2 | % | | | 108.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2005 | | | 88.4 | % | | | 116.7 | % | | | 108.9 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2006 | | | 89.2 | % | | | 117.9 | % | | | 107.5 | % | | | 107.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -7.5 | % |
2007 | | | 108.4 | % | | | 118.8 | % | | | 112.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -12.9 | % |
2008 | | | 110.2 | % | | | 117.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -17.8 | % |
2009 | | | 102.6 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 108.0 | % | | | -2.6 | % |
| | | | | Cargo | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | Ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Cargo | | | Loss+LAE | | | Cargo | | | | | | Cargo | | | | | | Cargo | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident | | Earned | | | after | | | Loss & | | | | | | Case | | | Cargo | | | Total | | | | | | | | | | |
Year | | Premium | | | Deductible | | | LAE Ratio | | | | | | Reserves | | | IBNR | | | Reserves | | | | | | | | | | |
1988 | | | | | | 18677 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1989 | | | | | | 379629 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1990 | | | | | | 160327 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1991 | | | | | | 106412 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1992 | | | | | | 1592 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1993 | | | | | | 79570 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | | | | | 7969 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | | 99131 | | | | 53988 | | | | 54.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | | 92895 | | | | 14915 | | | | 16.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | | 81664 | | | | 87176 | | | | 106.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | | 78321 | | | | 107595 | | | | 137.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | | 87819 | | | | 9774 | | | | 11.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | | 64506 | | | | 53355 | | | | 82.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | | 142773 | | | | 99269 | | | | 69.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | | 236778 | | | | 87704 | | | | 37.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | | 386949 | | | | 177958 | | | | 46.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2004 | | | 369454 | | | | 173691 | | | | 47.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2005 | | | 353208 | | | | 227483 | | | | 64.4 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | | 459254 | | | | 236676 | | | | 51.5 | % | | | | | | | 175000 | | | | -17842 | | | | 157158 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | | | 337384 | | | | 106995 | | | | 31.7 | % | | | | | | | 13855 | | | | -13855 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2008 | | | 265900 | | | | 110953 | | | | 41.7 | % | | | | | | | 88527 | | | | -19741 | | | | 68786 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2009 | | | 143942 | | | | 163699 | | | | 113.7 | % | | | | | | | 122100 | | | | -4263 | | | | 117837 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | | 3199979 | | | | 2465406 | | | | | | | | | | | | 399482 | | | | -55701 | | | | 343781 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-05 | | | 1993498 | | | | 1092908 | | | | 54.8 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-06 | | | 2452752 | | | | 1329584 | | | | 54.2 | % | | | | | | | 175000 | | | | -17841 | | | | 157159 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-07 | | | 2790136 | | | | 1436579 | | | | 51.5 | % | | | | | | | 188855 | | | | -31696 | | | | 157159 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-08 | | | 3056037 | | | | 1547531 | | | | 50.6 | % | | | | | | | 277382 | | | | -51438 | | | | 225944 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-09 | | | 3199979 | | | | 1711230 | | | | 53.5 | % | | | | | | | 399482 | | | | -55701 | | | | 343781 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exhibit 14
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Projection of CARGO IBNR (after Deductible)
file = cargo 2009.xls Tab = alternate triangle | In this version, we ignore lose development when projecting 2005 and prior accident years, and simply use Paid+Case for those years. Loss development uses the average of the previous 3 loss development %'s. |
Accident | | CARGO Paid plus Case Reserves (losses and LAE) after deductible & after Salvage+Recoveries | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | +4 | | | +5 | | | +6 | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1988 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18677 | | | | 18677 | | | | 0 | |
1989 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 379629 | | | | 379629 | | | | 0 | |
1990 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 160327 | | | | 160327 | | | | 0 | |
1991 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 106412 | | | | 106412 | | | | 0 | |
1992 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1592 | | | | 1592 | | | | 0 | |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 79570 | | | | 79570 | | | | 0 | |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7969 | | | | 7969 | | | | 0 | |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 53988 | | | | 53988 | | | | 53988 | | | | 0 | |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14915 | | | | 14915 | | | | 14915 | | | | 14915 | | | | 0 | |
1997 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 87178 | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 87176 | | | | 0 | |
1998 | | | | | | 86842 | | | | 91642 | | | | 112595 | | | | 112595 | | | | 112595 | | | | 107595 | | | | 107595 | | | | 107595 | | | | 0 | |
1999 | | | 6885 | | | | 9773 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 9774 | | | | 0 | |
2000 | | | 52652 | | | | 68355 | | | | 68355 | | | | 68355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 53355 | | | | 0 | |
2001 | | | 59701 | | | | 78518 | | | | 90065 | | | | 98298 | | | | 98558 | | | | 99269 | | | | 99269 | | | | 99269 | | | | 99269 | | | | 0 | |
2002 | | | 108460 | | | | 85203 | | | | 96203 | | | | 96203 | | | | 95203 | | | | 87703 | | | | 87704 | | | | 87704 | | | | 87704 | | | | 0 | |
2003 | | | 214548 | | | | 195375 | | | | 195376 | | | | 202837 | | | | 200558 | | | | 177958 | | | | 177958 | | | | ** | | | | 177958 | | | | 0 | |
2004 | | | 246300 | | | | 246169 | | | | 226190 | | | | 188690 | | | | 173690 | | | | 173690 | | | | | | | | ** | | | | 173690 | | | | 0 | |
2005 | | | 201016 | | | | 265372 | | | | 247710 | | | | 227483 | | | | 227483 | | | | | | | | | | | | ** | | | | 227483 | | | | 0 | |
2006 | | | 211192 | | | | 279114 | | | | 254518 | | | | 254518 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 240663 | | | | -13855 | |
2007 | | | 115998 | | | | 127100 | | | | 120850 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 106995 | | | | -13855 | |
2008 | | | 122232 | | | | 130694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 111570 | | | | -19124 | |
2009 | | | 167962 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 164817 | | | | -3145 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 2521107 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2471127 | | | | -49980 | |
** Note: 2003-2005 ultimates are selected as equal to PAID+CASE. 2006-2009 are limited to minimum of paid-to-date.
Only the 2007 year is actually impacted by this cap.
Accident | | CARGO Paid plus Case Reserves (after Ded, Salvage & Recoveries) as % of Ultimate | |
Year | | Yr-end | | | +1 | | | +2 | | | +3 | | | +4 | | | +5 | | | +6 | | | +7 | | | Ultimate | | | IBNR | |
1988 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1989 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1990 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1991 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1992 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1993 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1994 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1995 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1996 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1997 | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1998 | | | | | | 80.7 | % | | | 85.4 | % | | | 104.6 | % | | | 104.6 | % | | | 104.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
1999 | | | 70.4 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2000 | | | 98.7 | % | | | 128.1 | % | | | 128.1 | % | | | 128.1 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2001 | | | 60.1 | % | | | 79.1 | % | | | 90.7 | % | | | 99.0 | % | | | 99.3 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2002 | | | 123.7 | % | | | 97.1 | % | | | 109.7 | % | | | 109.7 | % | | | 108.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2003 | | | 120.6 | % | | | 109.8 | % | | | 109.8 | % | | | 114.0 | % | | | 112.7 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2004 | | | 141.8 | % | | | 141.7 | % | | | 130.2 | % | | | 108.6 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2005 | | | 88.4 | % | | | 116.7 | % | | | 108.9 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | 0.0 | % |
2006 | | | 87.8 | % | | | 116.0 | % | | | 105.8 | % | | | 105.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -5.8 | % |
2007 | | | 108.4 | % | | | 118.8 | % | | | 112.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -12.9 | % |
2008 | | | 109.6 | % | | | 117.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | | | -17.1 | % |
2009 | | | 101.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | Cargo | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | Ultimate | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Cargo | | | Loos+LAE | | | Cargo | | | | | | Cargo | | | | | | Cargo | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident | | Earned | | | after | | | Loss & | | | | | | Case | | | Cargo | | | Total | | | | | | | | | | |
Year | | Premium | | | Deductible | | | LAE Ratio | | | | | | Reserves | | | IBNR | | | Reserves | | | | | | | | | | |
1988 | | | | | | 18677 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1989 | | | | | | 379629 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1990 | | | | | | 160327 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1991 | | | | | | 106412 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1992 | | | | | | 1592 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1993 | | | | | | 79570 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1994 | | | | | | 7969 | | | | n/a | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1995 | | | 99131 | | | | 53988 | | | | 54.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1996 | | | 92895 | | | | 14915 | | | | 16.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1997 | | | 81664 | | | | 87176 | | | | 106.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1998 | | | 78321 | | | | 107595 | | | | 137.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1999 | | | 87819 | | | | 9774 | | | | 11.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | | 64506 | | | | 53355 | | | | 82.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | a | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | | 142773 | | | | 99269 | | | | 69.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2002 | | | 236778 | | | | 87704 | | | | 37.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | | 386949 | | | | 177958 | | | | 46.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2004 | | | 369454 | | | | 173690 | | | | 47.0 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2005 | | | 353208 | | | | 227483 | | | | 64.4 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | | 459254 | | | | 240663 | | | | 52.4 | % | | | | | | | 175000 | | | | -13855 | | | | 161145 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | | | 337384 | | | | 106995 | | | | 31.7 | % | | | | | | | 13855 | | | | -13855 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2008 | | | 265900 | | | | 111570 | | | | 42.0 | % | | | | | | | 88527 | | | | -19124 | | | | 69403 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2009 | | | 143942 | | | | 164817 | | | | 114.5 | % | | | | | | | 122100 | | | | -3145 | | | | 118955 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | | 3199979 | | | | 2471127 | | | | | | | | | | | | 399482 | | | | -49980 | | | | 349502 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-05 | | | 1993498 | | | | 1092907 | | | | 54.8 | % | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-06 | | | 2452752 | | | | 1333570 | | | | 54.4 | % | | | | | | | 175000 | | | | -13855 | | | | 161145 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-07 | | | 2790136 | | | | 1440565 | | | | 51.6 | % | | | | | | | 188855 | | | | -27710 | | | | 161145 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-08 | | | 3056037 | | | | 1552135 | | | | 50.8 | % | | | | | | | 277382 | | | | -46834 | | | | 230548 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tot 95-09 | | | 3199979 | | | | 1716951 | | | | 53.7 | % | | | | | | | 399482 | | | | -49980 | | | | 349502 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exhibit 15
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @ 12/09
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xls | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=uncapped | Claims Data is Uncapped | the last 5LDF’s. |
Paid Losses and LAE ----------------------------------> | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 45383 | | 155736 | | 27498 | | 45720 | | 72149 | | 39198 | | 60383 | | 122232 | | 87031 | | 367155 | | 1152883 | | 216735 | | 118982 | | 127068 | | 206280 | | 80391 | | 60406573 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 861765 | | 1272547 | | 237457 | | 77920 | | 383282 | | 227445 | | 109257 | | 199674 | | 367230 | | 332169 | | 623939 | | 1346370 | | 354624 | | 523372 | | 435389 | | 688165 | | | | 63658753 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 2212845 | | 1641776 | | 1332633 | | 551971 | | 157892 | | 383282 | | 359841 | | 520082 | | 356657 | | 529712 | | 423845 | | 783065 | | 1815791 | | 1193299 | | 1101592 | | 1885754 | | | | | | 59736196 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 5145741 | | 3258838 | | 2148834 | | 1373086 | | 573548 | | 502871 | | 383282 | | 410730 | | 559545 | | 1063236 | | 859954 | | 1460223 | | 911944 | | 2162649 | | 1451923 | | 1526087 | | | | | | | | 57228595 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 11585249 | | 5304662 | | 3307155 | | 2476826 | | 1412327 | | 596189 | | 583517 | | 383282 | | 985473 | | 776881 | | 1148877 | | 1801168 | | 2747573 | | 1151342 | | 2394101 | | 2039407 | | | | | | | | | | 54589114 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 12858839 | | 11653607 | | 5508719 | | 3335604 | | 2687524 | | 1443529 | | 597077 | | 596452 | | 383282 | | 998423 | | 776881 | | 1150424 | | 1870969 | | 2756869 | | 1220831 | | 2492650 | | | | | | | | | | | | 50852139 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1530012 | | 13020327 | | 11780985 | | 6135594 | | 3525774 | | 2793322 | | 1754666 | | 603115 | | 604226 | | 383282 | | 1006865 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2056084 | | 2780054 | | 1289079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 48378473 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11791354 | | 6196977 | | 3538676 | | 2813910 | | 1797821 | | 608498 | | 604827 | | 383282 | | 1007183 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104709 | | 2780054 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46587868 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11791510 | | 6348480 | | 3538676 | | 2814893 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1013315 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | 2104916 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 44832430 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1530012 | | 13067338 | | 11796510 | | 6348480 | | 3538676 | | 2860220 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1012315 | | 776881 | | 1152148 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43919601 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6348480 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1012315 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43410471 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6348645 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1012315 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 42443151 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41481333 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40539700 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40105812 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 13070128 | | 11797484 | | 6370847 | | 3538676 | | 2860605 | | 1810355 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1060866 | | 784057 | | 1164943 | | 2133030 | | 2827567 | | 1279251 | | 2604729 | | 2206442 | | 2445046 | | 3847687 | | 2305311 | | 564538 | | 65802194 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 43551 | | 7176 | | 12795 | | 28114 | | 47513 | | -9828 | | 112079 | | 167035 | | 918959 | | 1961933 | | 1617146 | | 484147 | | 5395621 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689141 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2873661 | | 2373386 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 134.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 137.4 | % | 88.2 | % | 169.0 | % | 155.7 | % | 123.3 | % | 45.8 | % | 98.5 | % | 79.0 | % | 80.8 | % | 133.7 | % | 97.1 | % | 39.4 | % | 972 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ==> | | 67.1 | % | 110.6 | % | 75.2 | % | 28.5 | % | | | |
| |
Paid Loss & LAE as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED -----------> | |
| | 1988 | | | 1989 | | | 1990 | | | 1991 | | | 1992 | | | 1993 | | | 1994 | | | 1995 | | | 1996 | | | 1997 | | | 1998 | | | 1999 | | | 2000 | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 2.5 | % | | 25.6 | % | | 4.5 | % | | 11.9 | % | | 6.8 | % | | 5.0 | % | | 5.2 | % | | 5.7 | % | | 3.1 | % | | 28.7 | % | | 44.3 | % | | 9.8 | % | | 4.9 | % | | 3.3 | % | | 8.9 | % | | 14.2 | % |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 30.1 | % | | 70.3 | % | | 39.0 | % | | 12.8 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 21.4 | % | | 13.9 | % | | 17.1 | % | | 17.2 | % | | 11.7 | % | | 48.8 | % | | 51.7 | % | | 16.1 | % | | 21.4 | % | | 11.3 | % | | 29.9 | % | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 62.5 | % | | 57.4 | % | | 73.6 | % | | 90.7 | % | | 25.9 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 33.9 | % | | 66.3 | % | | 30.6 | % | | 24.8 | % | | 15.0 | % | | 61.2 | % | | 69.7 | % | | 54.1 | % | | 45.1 | % | | 49.0 | % | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 80.8 | % | | 92.1 | % | | 75.1 | % | | 75.8 | % | | 94.3 | % | | 82.6 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 38.7 | % | | 71.4 | % | | 91.3 | % | | 40.3 | % | | 51.6 | % | | 71.3 | % | | 83.0 | % | | 65.8 | % | | 62.4 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | 0.0 | % | | 98.2 | % | | 83.3 | % | | 93.5 | % | | 86.6 | % | | 78.0 | % | | 98.0 | % | | 95.8 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 92.9 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 98.6 | % | | 84.4 | % | | 97.2 | % | | 90.0 | % | | 91.9 | % | | 92.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 90.2 | % | | 98.4 | % | | 98.8 | % | | 86.5 | % | | 94.3 | % | | 93.9 | % | | 79.7 | % | | 98.1 | % | | 98.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 94.1 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 98.8 | % | | 87.7 | % | | 97.5 | % | | 95.4 | % | | 95.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | | 99.6 | % | | 99.9 | % | | 96.3 | % | | 99.6 | % | | 97.6 | % | | 96.9 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 99.2 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 94.9 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 98.9 | % | | 96.4 | % | | 98.3 | % | | 100.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.9 | % | | 97.3 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 98.4 | % | | 99.3 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.3 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 94.9 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 98.9 | % | | 98.7 | % | | 98.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.9 | % | | 99.6 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 98.4 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 95.4 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 98.9 | % | | 98.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.6 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 95.4 | % | | 99.1 | % | | 98.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.6 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 95.4 | % | | 99.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 99.7 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 95.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 1000 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % | | 100.0 | % |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 0.0 | % | | 4.6 | % | | 0.9 | % | | 1.1 | % | | 1.3 | % | | 1.7 | % | | -0.8 | % | | 4.3 | % | | 7.6 | % | | 37.6 | % | | 51.0 | % | | 70.1 | % | | 85.8 | % |
Exhibit 16
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.x | Using data through 12/09 | |
tab=reduce | | |
Excess over 100,000 per loss – LAE prorated | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 7747 | | 771760 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 25256454 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 919616 | | 0 | | 0 | | 182588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 7747 | | 771760 | | 0 | | 62490 | | 0 | | 119769 | | | | 27713594 | | as or 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 667325 | | 201747 | | 919616 | | 60641 | | 0 | | 182588 | | 0 | | 93814 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 7747 | | 896772 | | 598761 | | 304042 | | 1091958 | | | | | | 25019657 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 1551878 | | 1415659 | | 263921 | | 919616 | | 61183 | | 99554 | | 182588 | | 0 | | 93814 | | 486621 | | 100855 | | 586104 | | 7747 | | 1005715 | | 639799 | | 409786 | | | | | | | | 23898959 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 5669697 | | 1588308 | | 1416541 | | 403896 | | 919616 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 872824 | | 1575347 | | 7747 | | 1005715 | | 1059604 | | | | | | | | | | 23008079 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | 5826784 | | 5669750 | | 1605865 | | 1416541 | | 420181 | | 919616 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 872824 | | 1575347 | | 7747 | | 1005715 | | | | | | | | | | | | 20612749 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669750 | | 2186727 | | 1499867 | | 420181 | | 1155339 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207721 | | 486621 | | 949204 | | 1575347 | | 7747 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19411351 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2207291 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1157013 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 949204 | | 1575347 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18777359 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | 949204 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18167829 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | 486621 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18086053 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450792 | | 207271 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17923686 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | 450791 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17599963 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | 182588 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 17260347 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | 99639 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16701410 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 505285 | | 5875862 | | 5669981 | | 2398751 | | 1514188 | | 420181 | | 1164982 | | 61183 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16532239 | | as of 1995 |
Excess over 200,000 per loss – LAE prorated
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 668859 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 16783949 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 668859 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 18765042 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 365153 | | 7481 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 672934 | | 495344 | | 37608 | | 869699 | | | | | | 16786953 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 849019 | | 986505 | | 7481 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 565 | | 408182 | | 0 | | 672939 | | 495344 | | 45352 | | | | | | | | 16333688 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 4092618 | | 885366 | | 987081 | | 20604 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | 0 | | 672939 | | 646913 | | | | | | | | | | 15764566 | | as 01 2005 |
+5 | | | | 4160661 | | 4092618 | | 885366 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 817436 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | 0 | | 672939 | | | | | | | | | | | | 13643429 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092618 | | 1348882 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 918122 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12680867 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1370010 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 918837 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | 1270786 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12287078 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | 655498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11938015 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | 343215 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11937301 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11883657 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | 341085 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11787456 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | 82588 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11684571 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11272032 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 245690 | | 4160661 | | 4092823 | | 1426771 | | 987081 | | 20607 | | 922241 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11226570 | | as of 1995 |
Excess over 250,000 per loss – LAE prorated
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 14107075 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 15826338 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | 271029 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 443635 | | 0 | | 758569 | | | | | | 14122145 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | 651449 | | 828890 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 0 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 0 | | 356418 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 443635 | | 0 | | | | | | | | 13732289 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | 3463398 | | 687924 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | 0 | | 617408 | | 505924 | | | | | | | | | | 13284562 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | 3499245 | | 3463398 | | 687924 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 766346 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | 0 | | 617408 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11354561 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463398 | | 1092767 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 799514 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10471222 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 799749 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | 1165110 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10181477 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | 591397 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9889232 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | 0 | | 292218 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9888997 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 283231 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9855696 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | 286231 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9855696 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | 32588 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9801697 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9396661 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 150435 | | 3499245 | | 3463590 | | 1114178 | | 829312 | | 0 | | 800870 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9398017 | | as of 1995 |
Excess over 350,000 per loss – LAE prorated
Exhibit 16
American lnter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid x | Using data through 12/09 | |
tab=reduce | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 10060718 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 11348884 | | as of 2003 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 340217 | | 0 | | 536310 | | | | | | 10200531 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 0 | | 252391 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 340217 | | 0 | | | | | | | | 9861177 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | 0 | | 514507 | | 340217 | | | | | | | | | | 9518042 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | 0 | | 514507 | | | | | | | | | | | | 7918923 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7241573 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | 953757 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7056464 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | 190225 | | 474354 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6874824 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | I76S24 | | 0 | | 190225 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 176524 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 2450720 | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 49968 | | 2450720 | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 49968 | | 2450720 | | 2339782 | | 772796 | | 597391 | | 0 | | 664167 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Excess over 500,000 per loss – LAE prorated
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 5268597 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 6159611 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 185091 | | 0 | | 202921 | | | | | | 5585770 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 37235 | | 0 | | 97600 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 135091 | | 0 | | | | | | | | 5244646 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | 0 | | 360155 | | 185091 | | | | | | | | | | 5058398 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | 0 | | 360155 | | | | | | | | | | | | 3949580 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3584913 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | 636728 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3552929 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | 298789 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | 37235 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 11964 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 1114310 | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 1080374 | | 1114310 | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 0 | | 1080374 | | 1114310 | | 435859 | | 394273 | | 0 | | 510898 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exhibit 17
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xl | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=maxl00 | Claims capped at $100,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE ================> | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 45383 | | 155736 | | 27498 | | 45720 | | 72149 | | 39198 | | 60383 | | 122232 | | 87031 | | 359408 | | 381123 | | 216735 | | 118982 | | 127068 | | 206280 | | 80391 | | 35150119 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 861765 | | 352931 | | 237457 | | 77920 | | 200694 | | 227445 | | 109257 | | 199674 | | 367230 | | 332169 | | 616192 | | 574610 | | 354624 | | 460882 | | 435389 | | 568396 | | | | 35945159 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 1545520 | | I440029 | | 413017 | | 491330 | | 157892 | | 200694 | | 359841 | | 426268 | | 356657 | | 529712 | | 423845 | | 775318 | | 919019 | | 594538 | | 797550 | | 793796 | | | | | | 34716539 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 0 | | 3593863 | | 1843179 | | 1884913 | | 453470 | | 512365 | | 403317 | | 200694 | | 410730 | | 465731 | | 576615 | | 759099 | | 874119 | | 904197 | | 1156934 | | 812124 | | 1116301 | | | | | | | | 33329636 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 0 | | 5915552 | | 3716354 | | 1890614 | | 2072930 | | 492711 | | 535006 | | 483878 | | 200694 | | 534681 | | 569610 | | 662256 | | 928344 | | 1172226 | | 1143595 | | 1388386 | | 979803 | | | | | | | | | | 31581035 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 7032055 | | 5983857 | | 3902854 | | 1919063 | | 2267343 | | 523913 | | 535894 | | 496813 | | 200694 | | 547631 | | 569610 | | 663803 | | 998145 | | 1181522 | | 1213084 | | 1486935 | | | | | | | | | | | | 30239390 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1024727 | | 7144465 | | 6111235 | | 3948867 | | 2025907 | | 2373141 | | 599327 | | 541932 | | 504587 | | 200694 | | 556073 | | 569160 | | 665527 | | 1106880 | | 1204707 | | 1281332 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28967122 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6121373 | | 3989686 | | 2024488 | | 2393729 | | 640808 | | 547315 | | 505188 | | 200694 | | 556391 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155505 | | 1204707 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27810509 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6121529 | | 3949729 | | 2024488 | | 2394717 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 561523 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | 1155712 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26664601 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1024727 | | 7191476 | | 6126529 | | 3949729 | | 2024488 | | 2440039 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 561523 | | 569610 | | 665527 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25833548 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3949729 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 561523 | | 569610 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 25486785 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3949894 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 561523 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24843188 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24220986 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 23838290 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 23573573 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | use case res | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1024727 | | 7194266 | | 6127503 | | 3972096 | | 2024488 | | 2440424 | | 645373 | | 547315 | | 509200 | | 200694 | | 610074 | | 578823 | | 678486 | | 1182822 | | 1240969 | | 1302696 | | 1585348 | | 1098638 | | 1590523 | | 1550988 | | 1643967 | | 558356 | | 38307775 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 48551 | | 9213 | | 12959 | | 27110 | | 36262 | | 21364 | | 98413 | | 118835 | | 474222 | | 757192 | | 1075571 | | 477965 | | 3157656 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1138211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780721 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Nd @ $50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 8S8507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 165.6 | % | 131.5 | % | 23.0 | % | 79.0 | % | 65.1 | % | 98,5 | % | 86.3 | % | 54.1 | % | 46.7 | % | 60.0 | % | 39.3 | % | 52.5 | % | 53.9 | % | 69.3 | % | 39.0 | % | 58.2 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | loss Ratio including $50K prcmium ===> | | 43.6 | % | 44.6 | % | 53.6 | % | 28.1 | % | | | |
Paid Loss & LAE as a Descent of ULTIMATE INCURRED =======>
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 7.0 | % | 28.5 | % | 5.4 | % | 22.8 | % | 11.8 | % | 6,8 | % | 8.9 | % | 10.3 | % | 7.0 | % | 27.6 | % | 24.0 | % | 19.7 | % | 7.5 | % | 8.2 | % | 12.5 | % | 14.4 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 35.3 | % | 54.7 | % | 43.4 | % | 15.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 37.3 | % | 18.9 | % | 29.4 | % | 31.0 | % | 26.8 | % | 47.3 | % | 36.2 | % | 32,3 | % | 29.0 | % | 28.1 | % | 34.6 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 76.3 | % | 59.0 | % | 64.0 | % | 89.8 | % | 31.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 59.0 | % | 73.6 | % | 52.6 | % | 44.8 | % | 34.2 | % | 59.5 | % | 58.0 | % | 54.1 | % | 50.1 | % | 51.2 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 90.5 | % | 91.0 | % | 77.2 | % | 70.3 | % | 93.6 | % | 79.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 67.3 | % | 80.5 | % | 85.0 | % | 64.2 | % | 70.4 | % | 69.4 | % | 73.0 | % | 73.9 | % | 70.2 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 0.0 | % | 96.5 | % | 93.6 | % | 93.4 | % | 84.9 | % | 76.3 | % | 97.8 | % | 95.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 87.6 | % | 98.4 | % | 97.6 | % | 78.5 | % | 94.5 | % | 87.8 | % | 87.6 | % | 89.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 134.6 | % | 97.7 | % | 97.7 | % | 98.3 | % | 94.8 | % | 92.9 | % | 81.2 | % | 97.9 | % | 97.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 89.8 | % | 98.4 | % | 97.8 | % | 84.4 | % | 95.2 | % | 93.1 | % | 93.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 99.7 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.1 | % | 97.2 | % | 92.9 | % | 99.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 91.1 | % | 98.3 | % | 98.1 | % | 93.6 | % | 97.1 | % | 98.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 100.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.1 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 91.2 | % | 98.4 | % | 98.1 | % | 97.7 | % | 97.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.1 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 92.0 | % | 98.4 | % | 98,1 | % | 97.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 92.0 | % | 98.4 | % | 98.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | I00.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100,0 | % | 92.0 | % | 98.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 92,0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100,0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 8.0 | % | 1.6 | % | 1.9 | % | 2.3 | % | 2.9 | % | 1.6 | % | 6.2 | % | 10.8 | % | 29.8 | % | 48.8 | % | 65.4 | % | 85.6 | % | | | |
Exhibit 18
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xl | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max200 | Claims capped at $200,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE ================> | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 45383 | | 155736 | | 27498 | | 45720 | | 72149 | | 39198 | | 60383 | | 122232 | | 87031 | | 367155 | | 484024 | | 216735 | | 118982 | | 127068 | | 206280 | | 80391 | | 43622624 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 861765 | | 455111 | | 237457 | | 77920 | | 300694 | | 227445 | | 109257 | | 199674 | | 367230 | | 332169 | | 623939 | | 677511 | | 354624 | | 523372 | | 435389 | | 688165 | | | | 44893711 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 1847692 | | 1634295 | | 515197 | | 551971 | | 157892 | | 300694 | | 359841 | | 520082 | | 356657 | | 529712 | | 423845 | | 783065 | | 1142857 | | 697955 | | 1063984 | | 1016055 | | | | | | 42949243 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 0 | | 4296722 | | 2272333 | | 2141353 | | 555650 | | 573548 | | 502871 | | 300694 | | 410730 | | 559545 | | 720021 | | 859389 | | 1052041 | | 911944 | | 1489710 | | 956579 | | 1480735 | | | | | | | | 40894907 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 0 | | 7492631 | | 4419296 | | 2320074 | | 2456222 | | 594891 | | 596189 | | 583517 | | 300694 | | 644388 | | 776881 | | 805662 | | 1145670 | | 1476787 | | 1151342 | | 1721162 | | 1392494 | | | | | | | | | | 38824548 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 8698178 | | 7560989 | | 4623353 | | 2348523 | | 2666917 | | 626093 | | 597077 | | 596452 | | 300694 | | 657338 | | 776881 | | 807209 | | 1215471 | | 1486083 | | 1220831 | | 1819711 | | | | | | | | | | | | 37208710 | | a of 2004 |
+6 | | 1284322 | | 8859666 | | 7688367 | | 4786712 | | 2538693 | | 2772715 | | 836544 | | 603115 | | 604226 | | 300694 | | 665780 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1400586 | | 1509268 | | 1289079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 35697606 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7698531 | | 4826967 | | 2551595 | | 2793303 | | 878984 | | 608498 | | 604827 | | 300694 | | 666098 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449211 | | 1509268 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34300790 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7698687 | | 4921709 | | 2551595 | | 2794291 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 671230 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | 1449418 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32894415 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1284322 | | 8906677 | | 7703687 | | 4921709 | | 2551595 | | 2839613 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 671230 | | 776881 | | 808933 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31982300 | | a of 2000 |
+10 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4921709 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 671230 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31526814 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4921874 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 671230 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30655695 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29796762 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29267668 | | aa of 1996 |
+14 | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28879242 | | as of 1995 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | use case res | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1284322 | | 8909467 | | 7704661 | | 4944076 | | 2551595 | | 2839998 | | 888114 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 300694 | | 719781 | | 787505 | | 822244 | | 1478133 | | 1547595 | | 1308774 | | 1942648 | | 1555909 | | 2216912 | | 2126515 | | 2302730 | | 679599 | | 48128606 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 48551 | | 10624 | | 13311 | | 28715 | | 38327 | | 19695 | | 122937 | | 163415 | | 736177 | | 1110460 | | 1614565 | | 399208 | | 4505982 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 5714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 374329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 34.4 | % | 93.2 | % | 88.6 | % | 119.3 | % | 107.9 | % | 67.5 | % | 46.9 | % | 73.5 | % | 55.7 | % | 73.2 | % | 73.9 | % | 97.0 | % | 47.4 | % | 74.4 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium ====> | | 60.8 | % | 61.1 | % | 75.1 | % | 34.3 | % | | | |
Paid Loss & LAE as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED =======>
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 5.1 | % | 25.6 | % | 4.5 | % | 15.2 | % | 10.0 | % | 5.0 | % | 7.3 | % | 8.3 | % | 5.6 | % | 28.1 | % | 24,9 | % | 13.9 | % | 5.4 | % | 6.0 | % | 9.0 | % | 11.8 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 30.3 | % | 51.2 | % | 39.0 | % | 12.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 31.6 | % | 13.9 | % | 24.3 | % | 24.8 | % | 21.5 | % | 47.7 | % | 34.9 | % | 22.8 | % | 23.6 | % | 20.5 | % | 29.9 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 72.4 | % | 57.5 | % | 58.0 | % | 90.7 | % | 25.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 50.0 | % | 66.0 | % | 43.4 | % | 35.8 | % | 27.4 | % | 59.8 | % | 58.8 | % | 44.9 | % | 48.0 | % | 47.8 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 86.9 | % | 89.1 | % | 75.4 | % | 62.6 | % | 94.3 | % | 82.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 57.1 | % | 71.1 | % | 87.6 | % | 58.1 | % | 68.0 | % | 69.7 | % | 76.1 | % | 61.5 | % | 66.8 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+-1 | | | | 0.0 | % | 97.2 | % | 89.4 | % | 90.9 | % | 86.5 | % | 67.0 | % | 98.0 | % | 95.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 89.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.0 | % | 77.5 | % | 95.4 | % | 88.0 | % | 88.6 | % | 89.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+S | | 107.4 | % | 91.6 | % | 98.1 | % | 93.5 | % | 92.0 | % | 93.9 | % | 70.5 | % | 98.1 | % | 98.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 91.3 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.2 | % | 82.2 | % | 96.0 | % | 93.3 | % | 93.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 99.4 | % | 99.8 | % | 96.8 | % | 99.5 | % | 97.6 | % | 94.2 | % | 99.1 | % | 99.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 92.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.4 | % | 94.8 | % | 97.5 | % | 98.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 97.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.4 | % | 99.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 92.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.4 | % | 98.0 | % | 97.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.3 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.4 | % | 98.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.3 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.3 | % | 98.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93,3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100,0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 6.7 | % | 1.3 | % | 1.6 | % | 1.9 | % | 2.5 | % | 1.5 | % | 6,3 | % | 10.5 | % | 33.2 | % | 52.2 | % | 70.1 | % | 88.2 | % | | | |
Exhibit 19
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xl | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max250 | Claims capped at $250,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE ================> | |
ACC Year | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | | 1997 | | | 1998 | | | 1999 | | | 2000 | | | 2001 | | | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 45383 | | 155736 | | 27498 | | | 45720 | | | 72149 | | | 39198 | | | 60383 | | | 122332 | | | 87031 | | | 367155 | | | 535475 | | | 216735 | | | 118982 | | | 127068 | | | 206280 | | | 80391 | | 46299498 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | 361765 | | 506201 | | 237457 | | 77920 | | | 350693 | | | 227445 | | | 109257 | | | 199674 | | | 367230 | | | 332169 | | | 623939 | | | 728962 | | | 354624 | | | 523372 | | | 435389 | | | 688165 | | | | | 47832415 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 1941816 | | 1641776 | | 566286 | | 551971 | | 157892 | | | 350693 | | | 359841 | | | 520082 | | | 356657 | | | 529712 | | | 423845 | | | 783065 | | | 1198383 | | | 749664 | | | 1101592 | | | 1127185 | | | | | | | | 45614051 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | 0 | | 4494292 | | 2429948 | | 2148334 | | 606739 | | 573548 | | 502871 | | | 350693 | | | 410730 | | | 559545 | | | 771018 | | | 859954 | | | 1103805 | | | 911944 | | | 1545241 | | | 1008288 | | | 1526087 | | | | | | | | | | | 43496306 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | 0 | | 8121851 | | 4616738 | | 2477843 | | 2476826 | | 645980 | | 596189 | | 583517 | | | 350693 | | | 699242 | | | 776881 | | | 856659 | | | 1209771 | | | 1582463 | | | 1151342 | | | 1776693 | | | 1533483 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41304552 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | 1379578 | | 9359594 | | 8190209 | | 4820795 | | 2506292 | | 2687524 | | 677182 | | 597077 | | 596452 | | | 350693 | | | 712192 | | | 776881 | | | 858206 | | | 1279572 | | | 1591759 | | | 1220831 | | | 1875242 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39497578 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | 1379577 | | 9521082 | | 8317587 | | 5042827 | | 2696461 | | 2793322 | | 955152 | | 603115 | | 604226 | | | 350694 | | | 720634 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | 1464687 | | | 1614944 | | | 1289079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37907251 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8337764 | | 5082799 | | 2709364 | | 2813910 | | 998072 | | 603498 | | 604827 | | | 350694 | | | 720952 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | 1513312 | | | 1614944 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 36406391 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8327920 | | 5234303 | | 2709364 | | 2814898 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 726084 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | 1513519 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34943198 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | 1379577 | | 9568093 | | 8332920 | | 5234303 | | 2709364 | | 2860220 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 726084 | | | 776881 | | | 859930 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 34030604 | | as of 2000 |
+10 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5234303 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 729084 | | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33554776 | | as of 1999 |
+11 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333694 | | 5234468 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 726084 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32587456 | | as of 1998 |
+12 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31679636 | | as of 1997 |
+13 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31143039 | | as of 1996 |
+14 | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5255669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | | | | use case res | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30707795 | | as of 1995 |
Ultimate | | 1379577 | | 9570883 | | 8333894 | | 5256669 | | 2709364 | | 2860605 | | 1009485 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | 350694 | | | 774635 | | | 786126 | | | 872925 | | | 1541049 | | | 1652606 | | | 1303117 | | | 1994201 | | | 1704471 | | | 2317739 | | | 2374590 | | | 2354204 | | | 683433 | | 51047605 | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | | 0 | | | 48551 | | | 9245 | | | 12995 | | | 27530 | | | 37662 | | | 14033 | | | 118959 | | | 170988 | | | 791652 | | | 1247405 | | | 1666039 | | | 603042 | | 4748107 | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | | 1188211 | | | 1161154 | | | 1122605 | | | 1001541 | | | 1706919 | | | 3571083 | | | 4591920 | | | 4806690 | | | 4022839 | | | 4749908 | | | 4463438 | | | 3714046 | | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | | 313882 | | | 389134 | | | 234098 | | | 312397 | | | 336954 | | | 1278553 | | | 1800513 | | | 2162519 | | | 1230531 | | | 1105789 | | | 985180 | | | 648283 | | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6I6693 | | | 599647 | | | 691878 | | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | | 874329 | | | 772020 | | | 888507 | | | 689144 | | | 1369965 | | | 2292530 | | | 2791407 | | | 2644171 | | | 2792308 | | | 3027426 | | | 2878661 | | | 2373386 | | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | | 40.1 | % | | 100.3 | % | | 88.5 | % | | 126.7 | % | | 112.5 | % | | 72.1 | % | | 45.7 | % | | 75.4 | % | | 61.0 | % | | 76.6 | % | | 82.5 | % | | 99.2 | % | | 47.7 | % | 78.0 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio icluding $50K premium =====> | | | 63.6 | % | | 68.3 | % | | 76.8 | % | | 34.5 | % | | | |
Pa id Loss & LAE as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED =======>
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 45 | % | 256 | % | 4.5 | % | 13.0 | % | 9.3 | % | 5.0 | % | 6.9 | % | 7.9 | % | 5.3 | % | 28.2 | % | 26.9 | % | 12.7 | % | 5.1 | % | 5.4 | % | 3.8 | % | 11.8 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 30.1 | % | 50.1 | % | 39.0 | % | 12.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 29.4 | % | 13.9 | % | 22.9 | % | 23.8 | % | 20.1 | % | 47.9 | % | 36.6 | % | 20.8 | % | 22.6 | % | 18.3 | % | 29.2 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 71.7 | % | 57.4 | % | 56.1 | % | 90.7 | % | 25.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 46.5 | % | 66.2 | % | 40.9 | % | 34.4 | % | 25.6 | % | 60.1 | % | 60.1 | % | 44.0 | % | 47.5 | % | 47.5 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | 0.0 | % | 85.5 | % | 89.7 | % | 75.1 | % | 60.1 | % | 94.3 | % | 82.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 53.0 | % | 71.2 | % | 88.3 | % | 55.8 | % | 66.8 | % | 70.0 | % | 77.5 | % | 59.2 | % | 65.8 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | 0.0 | % | 975 | % | 87.8 | % | 91.5 | % | 86.6 | % | 64.0 | % | 98.0 | % | 95.8 | % | 100.0 | % | 90.3 | % | 98.8 | % | 98.1 | % | 78.5 | % | 95.8 | % | 88.4 | % | 89.1 | % | 90.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | 100.0 | % | 97.8 | % | 98.3 | % | 91.7 | % | 925 | % | 93.9 | % | 67.1 | % | 98.1 | % | 98.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 91.9 | % | 98.8 | % | 98.3 | % | 83.0 | % | 96.3 | % | 93.7 | % | 94.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | 100.0 | % | 99.5 | % | 99.3 | % | 95.9 | % | 99.5 | % | 97.6 | % | 98.6 | % | 99.1 | % | 99.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.0 | % | 98.8 | % | 98.5 | % | 95.0 | % | 97.7 | % | 98.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 96.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.4 | % | 93.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.1 | % | 98.3 | % | 98.5 | % | 98.2 | % | 97.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.9 | % | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 98.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.7 | % | 98.8 | % | 98.5 | % | 98.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.7 | % | 98.8 | % | 98.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.1 | % | 93.8 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 6.3 | % | 1.2 | % | 1.5 | % | 1.8 | % | 2.3 | % | 1.1 | % | 6.0 | % | 10.0 | % | 34.2 | % | 52.5 | % | 70.8 | % | 88.2 | % | | | |
Exhibit 20
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability – BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xl | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max350 | Claims capped at $350,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE ================> | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diagonal | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 122232 | | 87031 | | 367155 | | 638376 | | 216735 | | 118982 | | 127068 | | 206280 | | 80391 | | 50345855 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 199674 | | 367230 | | 332169 | | 623939 | | 831863 | | 354624 | | 523372 | | 435389 | | 688165 | | | | 52309869 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 520082 | | 356657 | | 529712 | | 423845 | | 783065 | | 1301284 | | 853082 | | 1101592 | | 1349444 | | | | | | 49535665 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 410730 | | 559545 | | 873011 | | 859954 | | 1207332 | | 911944 | | 1648142 | | 1111706 | | 1526087 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 808949 | | 776881 | | 958652 | | 1326814 | | 1793816 | | 1151342 | | 1879594 | | 1699190 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 596452 | | 383282 | | 821899 | | 776881 | | 960199 | | 1396615 | | 1803112 | | 1220831 | | 1978143 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 603115 | | 604226 | | 383282 | | 830341 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1581730 | | 1826297 | | 1289079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1133654 | | 608498 | | 604827 | | 383282 | | 830659 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630355 | | 1826297 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2814898 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 835791 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | 1630562 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 2941285 | | 2850220 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 835791 | | 776881 | | 961923 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 5575684 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 835791 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 9457702 | | 5575849 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 835791 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | | | use case res | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1480044 | | 10619408 | | 9457702 | | 5598051 | | 2941285 | | 2860605 | | 1146188 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 884342 | | 785506 | | 974767 | | 1656757 | | 1863871 | | 1294941 | | 2092287 | | 1873755 | | 2346327 | | 2836361 | | 2380807 | | 666669 | | 55360291 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 48551 | | 8625 | | 12844 | | 26195 | | 37574 | | 5862 | | 114144 | | 174565 | | 820240 | | 1486917 | | 1692642 | | 586278 | | 5014436 | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1106919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312391 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 114.5 | % | 88.4 | % | 141.4 | % | 120.9 | % | 81.3 | % | 46.4 | % | 79.1 | % | 67.1 | % | 77.5 | % | 98,5 | % | 100.3 | % | 46.5 | % | 83.2 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K Premium ======> | | 64.4 | % | 81.5 | % | 77.7 | % | 33.6 | % | | | |
Paid Loss & LAE as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED =======>
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7.4 | % | 4.7 | % | 28.4 | % | 30.5 | % | 11.6 | % | 5.1 | % | 4.5 | % | 8.7 | % | 12.1 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20.5 | % | 22.2 | % | 17.8 | % | 48.2 | % | 39.8 | % | 18.9 | % | 22.3 | % | 15.4 | % | 28.9 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 66.2 | % | 36.6 | % | 32.0 | % | 22.7 | % | 60.5 | % | 62.2 | % | 45.5 | % | 46.9 | % | 47.6 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 46.4 | % | 71.2 | % | 89.6 | % | 51.9 | % | 64.8 | % | 70.4 | % | 78.8 | % | 59.3 | % | 65.0 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 91.5 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.3 | % | 80.1 | % | 96.2 | % | 88.9 | % | 89.8 | % | 90.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 98.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 92.9 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.5 | % | 84.3 | % | 96.7 | % | 94.3 | % | 94.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.1 | % | 99.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.9 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.7 | % | 95.5 | % | 98.0 | % | 99.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 98.9 | % | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 93.9 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.4 | % | 98.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | 98.4 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.5 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.5 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.5 | % | 98.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.5 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 1000 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 5.5 | % | 1.1 | % | 1.3 | % | 1.6 | % | 2.0 | % | 0.5 | % | 5.5 | % | 9.3 | % | 35.0 | % | 52.4 | % | 71.1 | % | 87.9 | % | | | |
Exhibit 21
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @ 12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
Source: diskette files closed94 to CLOSED (as of 1209) | |
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.x | Using data through 12/09 | In this version, we average |
tab=max500 | Claims capped at $350,000 per loss – LAE prorated | the last 5 LDF's. |
Paid Losses and LAE -------------------------------> | | |
ACC Year | | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Diagonal Total | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 87031 | | 367155 | | 792728 | | 216735 | | 118982 | | 127068 | | 206280 | | 80391 | | 55137976 | | as of 2009 |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 367230 | | 332169 | | 623939 | | 986215 | | 354624 | | 523372 | | 435389 | | 688165 | | | | 57499142 | | as of 2008 |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 356657 | | 529712 | | 423845 | | 783065 | | 1455636 | | 1008208 | | 1101592 | | 1682833 | | | | | | 54150426 | | as of 2007 |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 559545 | | 1026001 | | 859954 | | 1362623 | | 911944 | | 1802494 | | 1266832 | | 1526087 | | | | | | | | 47367418 | | as of 2006 |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 973509 | | 776881 | | 1111642 | | 1502379 | | 2110845 | | 1151342 | | 2033946 | | 1854316 | | | | | | | | | | 45071072 | | as of 2005 |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 383282 | | 986459 | | 776881 | | 1113189 | | 1572180 | | 2120141 | | 1220831 | | 2132495 | | | | | | | | | | | | 42933216 | | as of 2004 |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 604226 | | 383282 | | 994901 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1757295 | | 2143326 | | 1289079 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 41136900 | | as of 2003 |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 608498 | | 604827 | | 383232 | | 995219 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1805920 | | 2143326 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39531404 | | as of 2002 |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1000351 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | 1806127 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37957606 | | as of 2001 |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2860220 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1000351 | | 776881 | | 1114913 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383232 | | 1000351 | | 776881 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 5912786 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1000351 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383232 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860606 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | use case res | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 1530012 | | 11989754 | | 10683174 | | 5934988 | | 3144403 | | 2860605 | | 1299457 | | 608498 | | 608839 | | 383282 | | 1048902 | | 784140 | | 1127437 | | 1830529 | | 2180388 | | 1285137 | | 2240345 | | 2024985 | | 2359077 | | 3479381 | | 2376550 | | 633373 | | 60413257 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | 48551 | | 7259 | | 12524 | | 24402 | | 37062 | | -3942 | | 107850 | | 170669 | | 832990 | | 1796548 | | 1688385 | | 552982 | | 5275281 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned Premium | | | | | | | | | | | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | | |
Ceded | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985130 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | | |
Net @ 50K Deductible | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 616693 | | 599647 | | 691878 | | 551144 | | 2459362 | | |
Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772020 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3027426 | | 2878661 | | 2373886 | | 1432580 | | 25544455 | | |
Loss Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | 184.2 | % | 157.3 | % | 43.8 | % | 135.9 | % | 88.3 | % | 163.6 | % | 133.6 | % | 95.1 | % | 46.0 | % | 84.7 | % | 72.5 | % | 77.9 | % | 120.9 | % | 100.1 | % | 44.2 | % | 89.9 | % | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Loss Ratio including $50K premium==> | | 64.7 | % | 100.0 | % | 77.5 | % | 31.9 | % | | | |
Paid Loss & LAE as a percent of ULTIMATE INCURRED --------->
| | 1988 | | 1989 | | 1990 | | 1991 | | 1992 | | 1993 | | 1994 | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | 1998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | | | |
YEAR END | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4,0 | % | 28.6 | % | 35.4 | % | 10.7 | % | 5.0 | % | 3.7 | % | 8.7 | % | 12.7 | % | | | |
+1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20.1 | % | 15.2 | % | 48.6 | % | 44.0 | % | 17.5 | % | 22.2 | % | 12.5 | % | 29.0 | % | | | | | |
+2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 31.6 | % | 28.9 | % | 19.4 | % | 60.9 | % | 65.0 | % | 49.8 | % | 46.7 | % | 48.4 | % | | | | | | | |
+3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 71.4 | % | 91.0 | % | 47.0 | % | 62.5 | % | 71.0 | % | 80.5 | % | 62.6 | % | 64.7 | % | | | | | | | | | |
+4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.8 | % | 99.1 | % | 98.6 | % | 82.1 | % | 96.8 | % | 89.6 | %, | 90.8 | % | 91.6 | % | | | | | | | | | | | |
+5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 94.0 | % | 99.1 | % | 98.7 | % | 85.9 | % | 97.2 | % | 95.0 | % | 95.2 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 99.2 | % | 100.0 | % | 94.9 | % | 99.1 | % | 98.9 | % | 96.0 | % | 93.3 | % | 100.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 99.3 | % | 100.0 | % | 94,9 | % | 99.1 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.7 | % | 98.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 95.4 | % | 99,1 | % | 98.9 | % | 98.7 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+9 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 95.4 | % | 99.1 | % | 98.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+10 | | | | | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 95.4 | % | 99.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+11 | | | | | | | | 99.6 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 95.4 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+12 | | | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+13 | | | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+14 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ultimate | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | I00.0 | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0% | | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | | | |
IBNR | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 4.6 | % | 0.9 | % | 1.1 | % | 1.3 | % | 1.7 | % | -0.3 | % | 4.8 | % | 8.4 | % | 35.3 | % | 51.6 | % | 71.0 | % | 87.3 | % | | | |
Exhibit 22
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 5 LDF’s. | |
Page l | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/01 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/01 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25255044 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 41116 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 568590 | | | | 578823 | | | | 10233 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 723327 | | | | 787505 | | | | 64178 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 946650 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 1353726 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
5 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) = | | | 26886337 | | | | 28331870 | | | | 1445534 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (5) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/02 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/02 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25316403 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -20243 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 568173 | | | | 578823 | | | | 10650 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 751499 | | | | 787505 | | | | 36006 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1523221 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 777155 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1547595 | | | | 901722 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 645873 | | | | 1652606 | | | | 1006733 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
7 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6) = | | | 28191165 | | | | 29958224 | | | | 1767059 | |
Note1: The 1999 year is included in theLine (7) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (7) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/03 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/03 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25298068 | | | | 25296160 | | | | -1908 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 578823 | | | | 9213 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 787505 | | | | 10624 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 1855056 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 445320 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 935175 | | | | 1547595 | | | | 612420 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 990725 | | | | 1652606 | | | | 661881 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003 | | | 768541 | | | | 1303117 | | | | 534576 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 29623566 | | | | 31261340 | | | | 1637775 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/04 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/04 IBNR | |
1 for $I00K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 578823 | | | | 9213 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 787505 | | | | 10624 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2007831 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 292545 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1108841 | | | | 1547595 | | | | 438754 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1161618 | | | | 1652606 | | | | 490988 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2004 | | | 2018148 | | | | 3297317 | | | | 1279169 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 31195625 | | | | 33255541 | | | | 2059916 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Exhibit 22
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 5 LDF’s. | |
page 2 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/05 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/05 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 578823 | | | | 9213 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 787505 | | | | 10624 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2091322 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 209054 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1427045 | | | | 1547595 | | | | 120550 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1532869 | | | | 1652606 | | | | 119737 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 3325240 | | | | 5001789 | | | | 1676549 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
8 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4) +.25*(5)+.75*(6)+(7) = | | | 32944197 | | | | 34960012 | | | | 2015815 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/06 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/06 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 578823 | | | | 9213 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 787505 | | | | 10624 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2237404 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 62972 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1583846 | | | | 1547595 | | | | -36251 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1689522 | | | | 1652606 | | | | -36916 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 4531089 | | | | 5001789 | | | | 470700 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 2317739 | | | | 1634570 | |
9 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 683169 | | | | 2346327 | | | | 1663158 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
10 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6) +(7)+.5*(8)+.5*(9) = | | | 35135988 | | | | 37292046 | | | | 2156057 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in theLine (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/07 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/07 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296160 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 0 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 578823 | | | | 9213 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 787505 | | | | 10624 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2285398 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 14978 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578343 | | | | 1547595 | | | | -30748 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684019 | | | | 1652606 | | | | -31413 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5135205 | | | | 5001789 | | | | -133416 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 2317739 | | | | 996499 | |
9 for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 1321240 | | | | 2346327 | | | | 1025087 | |
10 for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 2374590 | | | | 1541523 | |
11 for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 2836361 | | | | 2003294 | |
12 for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 833067 | | | | 3479381 | | | | 2646314 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
13 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+( +.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(10)+.39*(ll)+.39*(12)= | | | 37253733 | | | | 40277595 | | | | 3023861 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in theLine (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note3: The 2007 year is included in theLine (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
Exhibit 22
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange @12/2009
Auto Liability — BI and PD Liability
file = Lsdv09 avg5 paid.xls | In this version, we average | |
tab = runoff | the last 5 LDF’s. | |
Page 3 | | |
| | Paid plus Case | | | Ultimate | | | Developed | |
| | at 12/08 | | | at 12/09 | | | 12/08 IBNR | |
1 for $100K triangle through 12/98 | | | 25296159 | | | | 25296160 | | | | 1 | |
2 for $100K triangle for 1999 | | | 569610 | | | | 578823 | | | | 9213 | |
3 for $200K triangle for 1999 | | | 776881 | | | | 787505 | | | | 10624 | |
4 for $200K triangle for 2000-2001 | | | 2258144 | | | | 2300376 | | | | 42232 | |
5 for $200K triangle for 2002 | | | 1578344 | | | | 1547595 | | | | -30749 | |
6 for $250K triangle for 2002 | | | 1684020 | | | | 1652606 | | | | -31414 | |
7 for $250K triangle for 2003-2005 | | | 5292693 | | | | 5001789 | | | | -290904 | |
8 for $250K triangle for 2006 | | | 1916770 | | | | 2317739 | | | | 400969 | |
9 for $350K triangle for 2006 | | | 2017468 | | | | 2346327 | | | | 328859 | |
10 for $250K triangle for 2007 | | | 1378354 | | | | 2374590 | | | | 996236 | |
11 for $350K triangle for 2007 | | | 1593351 | | | | 2836361 | | | | 1243010 | |
12 for $500K triangle for 2007 | | | 1807092 | | | | 3479381 | | | | 1672289 | |
13 for $250K triangle for 2008 | | | 947313 | | | | 2374590 | | | | 1427277 | |
14 for $500K triangle for 2008 | | | 1209691 | | | | 3479381 | | | | 2269690 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
15 (l)+.25*(2)+.75*(3)+(4)+.25*(5)+.75*(6)+( +.5*(8)+.5*(9)+.22*(l0)+.39*(11)+.39*(12) +.2*(13)+.8*(14)= | | | 39983405 | | | | 43536017 | | | | 3552612 | |
Notel: The 1999 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $100K version and 75% of $200K version.
Note2: The 2002 year is included in theLine (8) total as 25% of the $200K version and 75% of $250K version.
Note3: The 2006 year is included in theLine (10) total as 50% of the $250K version and 50% of $350K version.
Note3: The 2007 year is included in theLine (13) total as 22% of the $250K version, 39% of the $350K and 39% of $500K version.
Note 4: The 2008 year is included in theLine (13) total as 20% of the $250K version and 80% of $500K version.
Exhibit 23
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Analysis of Auto Liability Excess Layer - Based on Loss Development Triangles
file = Uncapped minus 250350500 1209.xls
Step 1 — Summarize Reported Losses & LAE in the Excess Layers
Reported Losses & LAE – in the Excess Layers
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | 617,408 | | | $ | 1,589,170 | | | $ | 52 | | | $ | 844,066 | | | $ | 272,676 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 3,323,372 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | 514,507 | | | $ | 1,205,231 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 623,796 | | | $ | 165,744 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 2,509,278 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | 360,155 | | | $ | 722,757 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 293,390 | | | $ | 5,347 | | | $ | 0 | | | $ | 1,381,649 | |
Step 2 – Summarize Ultimate Losses & LAE for Various Ground-Up Layers
by Subtracting Ultimates at $250K, $350K and $500K – from the Uncapped Ultimates
Ultimate Loss & LAE – Average of Last 5 LD %’s
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Avg Last 5 Total | |
Uncapped | | $ | 2,659,398 | | | $ | 3,823,126 | | | $ | 2,338,795 | | | $ | 3,349,142 | | | $ | 3,050,287 | | | $ | 820,650 | | | $ | 16,041,399 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$250K | | $ | 2,038,893 | | | $ | 1,963,812 | | | $ | 1,993,723 | | | $ | 1,852,657 | | | $ | 2,208,129 | | | $ | 716,675 | | | $ | 10,773,889 | |
$350K | | $ | 2,143,467 | | | $ | 2,388,974 | | | $ | 2,082,754 | | | $ | 2,175,145 | | | $ | 2,442,740 | | | $ | 748,448 | | | $ | 11,981,528 | |
$500K | | $ | 2,299,851 | | | $ | 2,943,994 | | | $ | 2,199,815 | | | $ | 2,709,520 | | | $ | 2,824,545 | | | $ | 782,164 | | | $ | 13,759,889 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | 620,505 | | | $ | 1,859,315 | | | $ | 345,073 | | | $ | 1,496,485 | | | $ | 842,158 | | | $ | 103,975 | | | $ | 5,267,510 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | 515,931 | | | $ | 1,434,152 | | | $ | 256,041 | | | $ | 1,173,997 | | | $ | 607,547 | | | $ | 72,202 | | | $ | 4,059,872 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | 359,547 | | | $ | 879,132 | | | $ | 138,981 | | | $ | 639,623 | | | $ | 225,741 | | | $ | 38,486 | | | $ | 2,281,510 | |
Ultimate Loss & LAE – Average of Last 3 LD %’s
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Avg Last 3 Total | |
Uncapped | | $ | 2,649,384 | | | $ | 3,881,893 | | | $ | 2,277,486 | | | $ | 2,807,528 | | | $ | 2,887,287 | | | $ | 937,220 | | | $ | 15,440,800 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$250K | | $ | 2,031,194 | | | $ | 1,878,541 | | | $ | 1,866,611 | | | $ | 1,672,287 | | | $ | 2,036,378 | | | $ | 717,346 | | | $ | 10,202,357 | |
$350K | | $ | 2,136,943 | | | $ | 2,318,618 | | | $ | 1,975,709 | | | $ | 1,943,293 | | | $ | 2,261,930 | | | $ | 769,235 | | | $ | 11,405,728 | |
$500K | | $ | 2,294,757 | | | $ | 2,910,894 | | | $ | 2,119,198 | | | $ | 2,407,388 | | | $ | 2,657,108 | | | $ | 848,641 | | | $ | 13,237,986 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | 618,190 | | | $ | 2,003,353 | | | $ | 410,875 | | | $ | 1,135,242 | | | $ | 850,909 | | | $ | 219,874 | | | $ | 5,238,442 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | 512,442 | | | $ | 1,563,275 | | | $ | 301,778 | | | $ | 864,235 | | | $ | 625,357 | | | $ | 167,985 | | | $ | 4,035,072 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | 354,628 | | | $ | 971,000 | | | $ | 158,289 | | | $ | 400,140 | | | $ | 230,179 | | | $ | 88,579 | | | $ | 2,202,814 | |
Ultimate Loss & LAE - Average of Last 2 LD %’s
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Avg Last 2 Total | |
Uncapped | | $ | 2,620,230 | | | $ | 4,080,546 | | | $ | 2,144,015 | | | $ | 2,912,012 | | | $ | 2,710,895 | | | $ | 865,832 | | | $ | 15,333,530 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$250K | | $ | 2,008,940 | | | $ | 1,858,296 | | | $ | 1,899,949 | | | $ | 1,663,207 | | | $ | 1,933,434 | | | $ | 641,611 | | | $ | 10,005,436 | |
$350K | | $ | 2,116,344 | | | $ | 2,327,954 | | | $ | 1,989,021 | | | $ | 1,957,815 | | | $ | 2,138,335 | | | $ | 692,822 | | | $ | 11,222,292 | |
$500K | | $ | 2,276,207 | | | $ | 2,981,038 | | | $ | 2,097,044 | | | $ | 2,485,768 | | | $ | 2,565,528 | | | $ | 788,117 | | | $ | 13,193,701 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | 611,290 | | | $ | 2,222,250 | | | $ | 244,066 | | | $ | 1,248,805 | | | $ | 777,461 | | | $ | 224,222 | | | $ | 5,328,094 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | 503,886 | | | $ | 1,752,592 | | | $ | 154,994 | | | $ | 954,197 | | | $ | 572,560 | | | $ | 173,010 | | | $ | 4,111,238 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | 344,023 | | | $ | 1,099,508 | | | $ | 46,971 | | | $ | 426,245 | | | $ | 145,367 | | | $ | 77,716 | | | $ | 2,139,830 | |
Exhibit 23
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Analysis of Auto Liability Excess Layer — Based on Loss Development Triangles
file = Uncapped minus 250350500 1209.xls
Step 3 — Calculate Excess Layer IBNR as Excess Reported at the respective Attachments
($250K, $350K, or $500K) from the Excess Layer Ultimates at Uncapped
IBNR = Ultimate minus Reported - Average of Last 5 LD %’s
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Avg Last 5 | |
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | 33,097 | | | $ | 270,145 | | | $ | 345,021 | | | $ | 652,419 | | | $ | 569,482 | | | $ | 103,975 | | | $ | 1,944,138 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | 1,424 | | | $ | 228,921 | | | $ | 256,041 | | | $ | 550,201 | | | $ | 441,803 | | | $ | 72,202 | | | $ | 1,550,594 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | -608 | | | $ | 156,375 | | | $ | 138,981 | | | $ | 346,233 | | | $ | 220,394 | | | $ | 38,486 | | | $ | 899,861 | |
IBNR = Ultimate minus Reported - Average of Last 3 LD %’s
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Avg Last 3 | |
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | 782 | | | $ | 414,183 | | | $ | 410,823 | | | $ | 291,176 | | | $ | 578,233 | | | $ | 219,874 | | | $ | 1,915,070 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | -2,065 | | | $ | 358,044 | | | $ | 301,778 | | | $ | 240,439 | | | $ | 459,613 | | | $ | 167,985 | | | $ | 1,525,794 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | -5,527 | | | $ | 248,243 | | | $ | 158,289 | | | $ | 106,750 | | | $ | 224,832 | | | $ | 88,579 | | | $ | 821,165 | |
IBNR = Ultimate minus Reported — Average of Last 2 LD %’s
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Avg Last 2 | |
| | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Exc $250K | | $ | -6,118 | | | $ | 633,080 | | | $ | 244,014 | | | $ | 404,739 | | | $ | 504,785 | | | $ | 224,222 | | | $ | 2,004,722 | |
Exc $350K | | $ | -10,621 | | | $ | 547,361 | | | $ | 154,994 | | | $ | 330,401 | | | $ | 406,816 | | | $ | 173,010 | | | $ | 1,601,960 | |
Exc $500K | | $ | -16,132 | | | $ | 376,751 | | | $ | 46,971 | | | $ | 132,855 | | | $ | 140,020 | | | $ | 77,716 | | | $ | 758,181 | |
Step 4 — Using the Layer Weights (see Exhibit 12), Calculate a Weighted
Excess Layer IBNR
Weights | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | | | |
$250K | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % | | | 50 | % | | | 22 | % | | | 20 | % | | | 21 | % | | | | |
$350K | | | | | | | | | | | 50 | % | | | 39 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$500K | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 39 | % | | | 80 | % | | | 79 | % | | | | |
Total | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % | | | 100 | % | | | | |
Weighted Excess Layer IBNR
Last 5 | | $ | 3,097 | | | $ | 270,145 | | | $ | 300,531 | | | $ | 493,142 | | | $ | 290,212 | | | $ | 52,239 | | | $ | 1,409,365 | |
Last 3 | | $ | 782 | | | $ | 414,183 | | | $ | 356,300 | | | $ | 199,462 | | | $ | 295,512 | | | $ | 116,151 | | | $ | 1,382,391 | |
Last 2 | | $ | -6,118 | | | $ | 633,080 | | | $ | 199,504 | | | $ | 269,712 | | | $ | 212,973 | | | $ | 108,482 | | | $ | 1,417,633 | |
Exhibit 24
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Calculation of Ceded IBNR
Automobile Liability
file = ceded IBNR calcs 2009.xls
Accident Year = | | 1995 | | 1996 | | 1997 | | I998 | | 1999 | | 2000 | | 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | 2004 | | 2005 | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | | Total 1995-2009 | |
Earned Premium | | 1111129 | | 996547 | | 1188211 | | 1161154 | | 1122605 | | 1001541 | | 1706919 | | 3571083 | | 4591920 | | 4806690 | | 4022839 | | 4749908 | | 4463488 | | 3714046 | | 2364172 | | 40572252 | |
Ceded | | 780724 | | 609430 | | 313882 | | 389134 | | 234098 | | 312397 | | 336954 | | 1278553 | | 1800513 | | 2162519 | | 1230531 | | 1105789 | | 985180 | | 648283 | | 380448 | | 12568435 | |
Net Earned | | 330405 | | 387117 | | 874329 | | 772010 | | 888507 | | 689144 | | 1369965 | | 2292530 | | 2791407 | | 2644171 | | 2792308 | | 3644119 | | 3478308 | | 3065763 | | 1983724 | | 28003817 | |
Reported Loss Ratio — $100K level (as % of CEDED premium) | | 7.8 | % | 16.3 | % | 58.2 | % | 115.8 | % | 88.5 | % | 155.8 | % | 281.7 | % | 123.2 | % | 52.1 | % | 49.5 | % | 163.0 | % | 70.9 | % | 91.4 | % | 69.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 80.9 | % |
Reported Loss Ratio — $200K level (as % of CEDED premium) | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 26.3 | % | 87.7 | % | 0.0 | % | 109.9 | % | 194.5 | % | 99.4 | % | 44.5 | % | 31.1 | % | 121.2 | % | 22.1 | % | 69.6 | % | 49.4 | % | 0.0 | % | 55.0 | % |
Reported Loss Ratio — $250K level (as % of CEDED premium) | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 73.6 | % | 0.0 | % | 93.5 | % | l75.5 | % | 91.1 | % | 40.9 | % | 28.6 | % | 105.0 | % | 9.8 | % | 58.7 | % | 41.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 47.2 | % |
Reported Loss Ratio — $350K level (as % of CEDED premium) | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 45.4 | % | 0.0 | % | 60.9 | % | 140.8 | % | 74.6 | % | 33.7 | % | 23.8 | % | 83.2 | % | 0.7 | % | 36.9 | % | 25.1 | % | 0.0 | % | 35.6 | % |
Reported Loss Ratio — $500K level (as % of CEDED premium) | | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 3.1 | % | 0.0 | % | 11.9 | % | 88.7 | % | 49.8 | % | 23.0 | % | 16.7 | % | 57.7 | % | 0.0 | % | 15.2 | % | 0.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 20.9 | % |
Reinsurance Attachment Points: | | $ | 100,000 | | until first part of 1999 |
| | $ | 100,000 | | last part of 1999 to first part of 2002 |
| | $ | 250,000 | | last part of 2002 to current |
| | $ | 350,000 | | during 2006, for 5 selected accounts only |
| | $ | 500,000 | | during 2007, for the same 5 selected accounts only |
Exhibit 24
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Calculation of Ceded IBNR
Automobile Liability
file = ceded IBNR calcs 2009.xls
sheet = conclusion
Method 1: Use Expected Loss Ratio on Ceded Premiums – for the 2006-2009 accident years.
| | 2002 | | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | | 2005 | | | 2006 | | | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | Total | |
Ceded Earned Premium | | | 1278553 | | | | 1800513 | | | | 2162519 | | | | 1230531 | | | | 1105789 | | | | 985180 | | | | 648283 | | | | 380448 | | | | 9591816 | |
Reported Losses ($250K) | | | 1165110 | | | | 750199 | | | | 617408 | | | | 1589170 | | | | 52 | | | | 844066 | | | | 272676 | | | | 0 | | | | 5238681 | |
Reported Losses ($350K) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 623796 | | | | 165744 | | | | 0 | | | | 789540 | |
Reported Losses ($500K) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 293390 | | | | 5347 | | | | 0 | | | | 298737 | |
Selected Reported Losses | | | 1165110 | | | | 750199 | | | | 617408 | | | | 1589170 | | | | 26 | | | | 580843 | | | | 58813 | | | | 0 | | | | 4761569 | |
Reported Loss Ratio | | | 91.1 | % | | | 41.7 | % | | | 28.6 | % | | | 129.1 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 59.0 | % | | | 9.1 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 49.6 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Additional IBNR | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 59524 | | | | 362571 | | | | 247291 | | | | 669386 | |
Ultimate Losses | | | 1165110 | | | | 750199 | | | | 617408 | | | | 1589170 | | | | 26 | | | | 640367 | | | | 421384 | | | | 247291 | | | | 5430955 | |
Ultimate Loss Ratio | | | 91.1 | % | | | 41.7 | % | | | 28.6 | % | | | 129.1 | % | | | 0.0 | % | | | 32.5 | % | | | 65.0 | % | | | 65.0 | % | | | 56.6 | % |
Last year we had used: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 37.5 | % | | | 75.0 | % | | | 75.0 | % | | | | | | | | |
Avg LR 2002-2006 => | | | | 58.1 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Method 2: Consider actual Emergence of Ceded IBNR on 12/02 and subsequent year-ends at $250,000 level or $350,000 level or $500,000 level.
| | $250,000 | | | $350,000 | | | $500,000 | |
| | Emerged IBNR | | | Emerged IBNR | | | Emerged IBNR | |
Reserve at 12/02 | | | 2043697 | | | | 1613220 | | | | 967501 | |
Reserve at 12/03 | | | 2504151 | | | | 2046696 | | | | 1356681 | |
Reserve at 12/04 | | | 2238220 | | | | 1883853 | | | | 1352169 | |
Reserve at 12/05 | | | 1897389 | | | | 1489965 | | | | 966108 | |
Reserve at 12/06 | | | 1449714 | | | | 1146830 | | | | 779860 | |
Reserve at 12/07 | | | 1903924 | | | | 1431272 | | | | 732126 | |
Reserve at 12/08 | | | 472407 | | | | 448663 | | | | 163632 | |
Conclusion: | | | | |
Selected Ceded IBNR at 12/09 | | | | 1400000 | |
| | | | | |
split by accident year | 2009 | | | 150000 | |
| 2008 | | | 250000 | |
| 2007 | | | 300000 | |
| 2006 | | | 300000 | |
| 2005 | | | 400000 | |
| Total | | | 1400000 | |
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Reconciliation of Actuary's Workpapers to Schedule P
file = SchP reconcile AIFE 1209.xls
Page 1
| | Schedule P ======> | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Accident | | Auto Liability | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | JPCA - Actuary's Workpapere | | | | |
Year | | Net Earned | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Net Earned | | | Delta | | | | |
prior | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 | | | 799 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 689 | | | | -110 | | | | | |
2001 | | | 1523 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1370 | | | | -153 | | | | | |
2002 | | | 2656 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2293 | | | | -363 | | | | | |
2003 | | | 3137 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2791 | | | | -346 | | | | | |
2004 | | | 3086 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2644 | | | | -442 | | | | | |
2005 | | | 3231 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2792 | | | | -439 | | | | | |
2006 | | | 4090 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3644 | | | | -446 | | | | | |
2007 | | | 3920 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3479 | | | | -441 | | | | | |
2008 | | | 3640 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3066 | | | | -574 | | | | | |
2009 | | | 2365 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1984 | | | | -381 | | | | | |
Total | | | 28447 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24752 | | | | -3695 | | | | | |
Difference in premium is (almost exactly) Bobtail and US1 premium – not included in Actuary's workpapers. See page 2 of this worksheet.
Accident | | Auto Liability – Net | | | Paid | | | | | | | | | | | | Case | | | | | | Total | | | JPCA - Actuary's Workpapers | | | Last Yr’s | |
Year | | Paid Loss | | | ceded | | | DCC LAE | | | ceded | | | Case Loss | | | ceded | | | DCC LAE | | | ceded | | | Reported | | | Reported | | | Delta | | | 12/08 Delta | |
Prior | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 47 | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | 49 | | | | 49 | | | | 0 | | | | |
2000 | | | 1018 | | | | 337 | | | | 133 | | | | 7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 807 | | | | 809 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | |
2001 | | | 1525 | | | | 561 | | | | 534 | | | | 95 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1403 | | | | 1449 | | | | 46 | | | | 46 | |
2002 | | | 2309 | | | | 1194 | | | | 455 | | | | 29 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1541 | | | | 1589 | | | | 48 | | | | 49 | |
2003 | | | 796 | | | | | | | | 493 | | | | | | | | 820 | | | | 570 | | | | | | | | 180 | | | | 1359 | | | | 1359 | | | | 0 | | | | 1 | |
2004 | | | 1996 | | | | 600 | | | | 483 | | | | 17 | | | | 163 | | | | | | | | 10 | | | | | | | | 2035 | | | | 2049 | | | | 14 | | | | 13 | |
2005 | | | 1558 | | | | 491 | | | | 477 | | | | 15 | | | | 1521 | | | | 990 | | | | 17 | | | | 78 | | | | 1999 | | | | 1987 | | | | -12 | | | | 7 | |
2006 | | | 1163 | | | | | | | | 316 | | | | | | | | 356 | | | | | | | | 14 | | | | | | | | 1849 | | | | 1896 | | | | 47 | | | | -18 | |
2007 | | | 1621 | | | | 610 | | | | 242 | | | | | | | | 426 | | | | 81 | | | | 106 | | | | 40 | | | | 1664 | | | | 1875 | | | | 211 | | | | 99 | |
2008 | | | 596 | | | | | | | | 77 | | | | | | | | 1026 | | | | 255 | | | | 32 | | | | 18 | | | | 1458 | | | | 1687 | | | | 229 | | | | 77 | |
2009 | | | 38 | | | | | | | | 41 | | | | | | | | 224 | | | | | | | | 13 | | | | | | | | 316 | | | | 318 | | | | 2 | | | | | |
Total | | | 12620 | | | | 3793 | | | | 3251 | | | | 163 | | | | 4583 | | | | 1896 | | | | 194 | | | | 316 | | | | 14480 | | | | 15066 | | | | 586 | | | | 276 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3.9 | % | | | | |
Source for actuary's values – my 2/10/10 draft report sections to Lex Venditti on IBNR projections.
The losses for 1999 in my worksheets are (.25*Exh 3 and .75*Exh4), and losses for 1998 and prior are Exh 3
The losses for 2002 in my worksheets are (.25*Exh 4 and .75*Exh5), and losses for 2000-2001 are Exh 4.
The losses for 2006 in my worksheets are (.50*Exh 5 and .50*Exh6), and losses for 2003-2005 are Exh 5.
The losses for 2007 in my worksheets are: 22% Exh5 and 39% Exh6 and 39% Exh7
The lasses for 2008 in my worksheets are: 20% Exh5 and 80% Exh7
The losses for 2009 in my worksheets are: 21 % Exh5 and 79% Exh7
The off-balances for 2000-2006 are similar to the off-balances at 12/08. The 2007+2008 off-balances could be the result of actual distribution of losses by reinsurance attachment being different than our percentage weighting for those two years.
| | Schedule P ======> | | | | | | | |
Accident | | Auto Physical Damage | | JPCA - Actuary's Workpapers | |
Year | | Net Earned | | | Net Earned | | | Delta | |
Prior | | | | | | | | | 0 | |
2008 | | 2049 | | | | 2048.569 | | | | -0.431 | |
2009 | | | 1679 | | | | 1679.928 | | | | 0.928 | |
Total | | | 3728 | | | | 3728.497 | | | | 0.497 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % |
Accident | | Auto Physical Damage | | | Paid | | | | | | Case | | | Total | | | JPCA - Actuary's Workpapers | |
Year | | Paid Loss | | | DCC LAE | | | Case Loss | | | DCC LAE | | | Reported | | | Reported | | | Delta | |
Prior | | | -8 | | | | 4 | | | | 28 | | | | 2 | | | | 26 | | | | 24.991 | | | | -1.009 | |
2008 | | | 967 | | | | 59 | | | | 19 | | | | 1 | | | | 1046 | | | | 1014.527 | | | | -31.473 | |
2009 | | | 747 | | | | 35 | | | | 57 | | | | 1 | | | | 840 | | | | 828.027 | | | | -11.973 | |
Total | | | 1706 | | | | 98 | | | | 104 | | | | 4 | | | | 1912 | | | | 1867.545 | | | | -44.455 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -2.4 | % |
Source for actuary's values – my 2/3/10 draft report sections to Lex Venditti
Actuary's losses for "prior" — paid in 2009 on 2007+prior, plus O/S for 2007+prior — are calculated in the "for Sch P recon" tab of our file collision 2009.xls.
| | Schedule P ======> | | | | |
Accident | | Inland Marine | | | JPCA - Actuary's Workpapers | |
Year | | Net Earned | | | Net Earned | | | Delta | |
Prior | | | | | | | | | |
2008 | | | 266 | | | | 265.900 | | | | -0.100 | |
2009 | | | 144 | | | | 143.942 | | | | -0.058 | |
Total | | | 410 | | | | 409.842 | | | | -0.158 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | % |
Accident | | Inland Marine | | | Paid | | | | | | Case | | | Total | | | JPCA - Actuary's Workpapers | |
Year | | Paid Loss | | | DCC LAE | | | Case Loss | | | DCC LAE | | | Reported | | | Reported | | | Delta | |
Prior | | | 0 | | | | 1 | | | | 183 | | | | 5 | | | | 189 | | | | 202.593 | | | | 13.593 | |
2008 | | | 9 | | | | 11 | | | | 88 | | | | 1 | | | | 109 | | | | 130.694 | | | | 21.694 | |
2009 | | | 44 | | | | 2 | | | | 120 | | | | 2 | | | | 168 | | | | 167.962 | | | | -0.038 | |
Total | | | 53 | | | | 14 | | | | 391 | | | | 8 | | | | 466 | | | | 501.249 | | | | 35.249 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7.0 | % |
Source for actuary's values – my 2/3/10 draft report sections to Lex Venditti
Actuary's losses for "prior" – paid in 2009 on 2007+prior, plus O/S for 2007+prior – are calculated in the" for Sch P recon" tab of our file Cargo 2009.xls.
American Inter-Fidelity Exchange at 12/09
Reconciliation of Actuary's Workpapers to Schedule P
file = SchP reconcile AIFE 1209.xls
Page 2
| | | | | | | | Remaining | |
| | Auto Liability | | | | | | JPCA-Sch P | |
Accident | | Delta | | | Bobtail | | | Delta in | |
Year | | JPCA - SchP | | | Written Prem | | | Auto Liab Premiums | |
prior | | | 0 | | | | | | | |
2000 | | | -110 | | | | 109.397 | | | | -0.603 | |
2001 | | | -153 | | | | 153.488 | | | | 0.488 | |
2002 | | | -363 | | | | 363.000 | | | | 0.000 | |
2003 | | | -346 | | | | 346.518 | | | | 0.518 | |
2004 | | | -442 | | | | 442.742 | | | | 0.742 | |
2005 | | | -439 | | | | 438.720 | | | | -0.280 | |
2006 | | | -446 | | | | 446.255 | | | | 0.255 | |
2007 | | | -441 | | | | 441.337 | | | | 0.337 | |
2008 | | | -574 | | | | 453.811 | | | | -120.189 | |
2009 | | | -381 | | | | 507.599 | | | | 126.599 | |
Total | | | -3695 | | | | 3702.867 | | | | 7.867 | |
Note 1: The 2008 off-balance is because US1 Excess policy premium of $120,000 is not included in our Auto Liability workpapers.
Note 2: The 2009 off-balance consists of two items:
a) additional ceded premium of $246,235 due to audits by the reinsurers.
b) $120,000 of premium for US1 Excess policy which is not included in our Auto Liability workpapers.
$120,000 | ($246,235) | equals | $126,235 |