Finance Receivables | Finance Receivables The Company provides retail financial services to customers of its independent dealers in the U.S. and Canada. The origination of retail loans is a separate and distinct transaction between the Company and the retail customer, unrelated to the Company’s sale of product to its dealers. Retail finance receivables consist of secured promissory notes and secured installment sales contracts and are primarily related to independent dealer sales of motorcycles to retail customers. The Company holds either titles or liens on titles to vehicles financed by promissory notes and installment sales contracts. The Company offers wholesale financing to its independent dealers in the U.S. and Canada. Wholesale finance receivables are related primarily to the Company's sale of motorcycles and related parts and accessories to dealers. Wholesale loans to dealers are generally secured by financed inventory or property. Finance receivables, net were as follows (in thousands): March 28, December 31, March 29, Retail finance receivables $ 6,310,982 $ 6,344,195 $ 6,269,247 Wholesale finance receivables 792,028 489,749 1,358,656 7,103,010 6,833,944 7,627,903 Allowance for credit losses (346,233) (390,936) (335,496) $ 6,756,777 $ 6,443,008 $ 7,292,407 On January 1, 2020, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13 Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments (ASU 2016-13), which requires an entity to recognize expected lifetime losses on finance receivables upon origination. Under ASU 2016-13, the Company’s finance receivables are reported at amortized cost, net of the allowance for credit losses. Amortized cost includes the principal outstanding, accrued interest, and deferred loan fees and costs. Based on differences in the nature of the finance receivables and the underlying methodology for calculating the allowance for loan losses, the Company segments its finance receivables into the retail and wholesale portfolios. The Company further disaggregates each portfolio by credit quality indicators. As the credit risk varies between the retail and wholesale portfolios, the Company utilizes different credit quality indicators for each portfolio. The retail portfolio primarily consists of a large number of small balance, homogeneous finance receivables. The Company performs a collective evaluation of the adequacy of the retail allowance for credit losses. The Company utilizes a vintage-based loss forecast methodology that includes decompositions for probability of default, exposure at default, attrition rate, and recovery balance rate. Reasonable and supportable economic forecasts for a two-year period are incorporated into the methodology to reflect the estimated impact of changes in future economic conditions, such as unemployment rates, household obligations or other relevant factors, over the two-year reasonable and supportable period. For periods beyond the Company’s reasonable and supportable forecasts, the Company reverts to its average historical loss experience using a mean-reversion process over a three-year period. Adjustments to historical loss information are made for differences in current loan-specific risk characteristics such as differences in underwriting standards, portfolio mix, or term as well as other relevant factors. The wholesale portfolio is primarily composed of large balance, non-homogeneous loans. The Company’s evaluation for the wholesale allowance for credit losses is first based on a loan-by-loan review to determine whether the loans share similar risk characteristics. The Company individually evaluates loans that do not share risk characteristics. Loans identified as those for which foreclosure is probable are classified as Non-Performing, and a specific allowance for credit losses is established when appropriate. The specific allowance is determined based on the amortized cost of the related finance receivable and the estimated fair value of the collateral, less selling costs and the cash that the Company expects to receive. Finance receivables in the wholesale portfolio not individually assessed are aggregated, based on similar risk characteristics, according to the Company’s internal risk rating system and measured collectively. The related allowance for credit losses is based on factors such as the specific borrower’s financial performance and ability to repay, the Company’s past loan loss experience, reasonable and supportable economic forecasts, and the value of the underlying collateral and expected recoveries. The Company considers various economic forecast scenarios as part of estimating the allowance for expected credit losses and applies a probability-weighting to those economic forecast scenarios. Changes in the Company’s outlook on economic conditions impacted the retail and wholesale estimates for expected credit losses at March 28, 2021. During the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. economy and the Company’s outlook on economic conditions improved from the fourth quarter of 2020; however, there is uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic recovery as demonstrated by unemployment levels above those experienced prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and continuing COVID-19 pandemic-related challenges across the U.S., among other factors. As such, at the end of the first quarter of 2021, the Company’s economic outlook on economic conditions included economic improvement; however, given the uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic recovery, the Company also included some adverse economic conditions in its economic scenario weighting. Additionally, the historical experience incorporated into the portfolio-specific models does not fully reflect the Company's comprehensive expectations regarding the future. As such, the Company incorporated qualitative factors to establish an appropriate allowance balance. These factors include motorcycle recovery value considerations, delinquency adjustments, specific problem loan trends, and others, as appropriate. Due to the use of projections and assumptions in estimating the losses, the amount of losses actually incurred by the Company in either portfolio could differ from the amounts estimated. Further, the Company’s allowance for credit losses incorporates known conditions at the balance sheet date and the Company's management’s expectations surrounding the economic forecasts. The Company’s expectations surrounding its economic forecasts may change in future periods as additional information becomes available. Changes in the allowance for credit losses on finance receivables by portfolio were as follows (in thousands): Three months ended March 28, 2021 Retail Wholesale Total Balance, beginning of period $ 371,738 $ 19,198 $ 390,936 Provision for credit losses (22,449) (25) (22,474) Charge-offs (34,589) — (34,589) Recoveries 12,360 — 12,360 Balance, end of period $ 327,060 $ 19,173 $ 346,233 Three months ended March 29, 2020 Retail Wholesale Total Balance, beginning of period $ 188,501 $ 10,080 $ 198,581 Cumulative effect of change in accounting (a) 95,558 5,046 100,604 Provision for credit losses 70,417 9,002 79,419 Charge-offs (55,215) — (55,215) Recoveries 12,107 — 12,107 Balance, end of period $ 311,368 $ 24,128 $ 335,496 (a) On January 1, 2020, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13 and increased the allowance for loan loss through Retained earnings , net of income taxes, to establish an allowance that represents expected lifetime credit losses on the finance receivable portfolios at date of adoption. The Company manages retail credit risk through its credit approval process and ongoing collection efforts. The Company uses FICO scores, a standard credit rating measurement, to differentiate the expected default rates of retail credit applicants, enabling the Company to better evaluate credit applicants for approval and to tailor pricing according to this assessment. For the Company’s U.S. and Canadian retail finance receivables, the Company determines the credit quality indicator for each loan at origination and does not update the credit quality indicator subsequent to the loan origination date. As loan performance by credit quality indicator differs between the U.S. and Canadian retail loans, the Company’s credit quality indicators vary for the two portfolios. For U.S. retail finance receivables, those with a FICO score of 740 or above at origination are generally considered super prime, loans with a FICO score between 640 and 740 are generally categorized as prime, and loans with FICO score below 640 are generally considered sub-prime. For Canadian retail finance receivables, those with a FICO score of 700 or above at origination are generally considered super prime, loans with a FICO score between 620 and 700 are generally categorized as prime, and loans with FICO score below 620 are generally considered sub-prime. The amortized cost of the Company's U.S. and Canadian retail finance receivables by vintage and credit quality indicator was as follows (in thousands): March 28, 2021 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 & Prior Total U.S. Retail: Super prime $ 260,359 $ 725,383 $ 502,847 $ 301,839 $ 134,213 $ 74,086 $ 1,998,727 Prime 349,662 1,026,080 706,940 445,201 249,327 183,217 2,960,427 Sub-prime 130,389 395,495 263,203 156,368 96,998 100,827 1,143,280 740,410 2,146,958 1,472,990 903,408 480,538 358,130 6,102,434 Canadian Retail: Super prime 13,938 48,309 42,993 24,549 11,116 4,831 145,736 Prime 4,245 17,350 13,055 9,263 5,808 4,178 53,899 Sub-prime 601 2,949 2,227 1,407 951 778 8,913 18,784 68,608 58,275 35,219 17,875 9,787 208,548 $ 759,194 $ 2,215,566 $ 1,531,265 $ 938,627 $ 498,413 $ 367,917 $ 6,310,982 December 31, 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 & Prior Total U.S. Retail: Super prime $ 822,631 $ 575,977 $ 355,529 $ 165,436 $ 71,360 $ 29,181 $ 2,020,114 Prime 1,133,637 794,058 508,713 293,358 156,688 77,046 2,963,500 Sub-prime 435,875 295,403 177,598 111,163 72,556 52,060 1,144,655 2,392,143 1,665,438 1,041,840 569,957 300,604 158,287 6,128,269 Canadian Retail: Super prime 53,465 48,692 28,581 13,818 5,018 2,011 151,585 Prime 18,568 14,257 10,269 6,727 3,198 2,025 55,044 Sub-prime 3,172 2,498 1,560 1,095 607 365 9,297 75,205 65,447 40,410 21,640 8,823 4,401 215,926 $ 2,467,348 $ 1,730,885 $ 1,082,250 $ 591,597 $ 309,427 $ 162,688 $ 6,344,195 March 29, 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 & Prior Total U.S. Retail: Super prime $ 204,937 $ 825,176 $ 539,296 $ 275,621 $ 140,284 $ 62,924 $ 2,048,238 Prime 265,365 1,065,132 717,234 441,284 262,421 155,338 2,906,774 Sub-prime 108,068 394,291 239,571 155,391 108,531 98,124 1,103,976 578,370 2,284,599 1,496,101 872,296 511,236 316,386 6,058,988 Canadian Retail: Super prime 12,819 61,889 39,516 22,186 10,565 4,989 151,964 Prime 3,968 16,479 12,389 8,441 4,549 3,929 49,755 Sub-prime 768 2,827 1,919 1,348 921 757 8,540 17,555 81,195 53,824 31,975 16,035 9,675 210,259 $ 595,925 $ 2,365,794 $ 1,549,925 $ 904,271 $ 527,271 $ 326,061 $ 6,269,247 The Company's credit risk on the wholesale portfolio is different from that of the retail portfolio. Whereas the retail portfolio represents a relatively homogeneous pool of retail finance receivables that exhibit more consistent loss patterns, the wholesale portfolio exposures are less consistent. The Company utilizes an internal credit risk rating system to manage credit risk exposure consistently across wholesale borrowers and individually evaluates credit risk factors for each borrower. The Company uses the following internal credit quality indicators, based on an internal risk rating system, listed from highest level of risk to lowest level of risk for the wholesale portfolio: Doubtful, Substandard, Special Mention, Medium Risk and Low Risk. Based upon the Company’s review, the dealers classified in the Doubtful category are the dealers with the greatest likelihood of being charged-off, while the dealers classified as Low Risk are least likely to be charged-off. Additionally, the Company classifies dealers identified as those in which foreclosure is probable as Non-Performing. The internal rating system considers factors such as the specific borrower's ability to repay and the estimated value of any collateral. Dealer risk rating classifications are reviewed and updated on a quarterly basis. The amortized cost of wholesale financial receivables, by vintage and credit quality indicator, was as follows (in thousands): March 28, 2021 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 & Prior Total Non-Performing $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — Doubtful — — — — — — — Substandard — — — — — — — Special Mention 567 530 262 17 — — 1,376 Medium Risk — 728 417 — — — 1,145 Low Risk 600,144 122,970 44,614 12,568 6,392 2,819 789,507 $ 600,711 $ 124,228 $ 45,293 $ 12,585 $ 6,392 $ 2,819 $ 792,028 December 31, 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 & Prior Total Non-Performing $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — Doubtful — — — — — — — Substandard — — — — — — — Special Mention 658 365 31 — — — 1,054 Medium Risk 1,925 242 — — — — 2,167 Low Risk 388,568 71,441 13,412 7,887 2,297 2,923 486,528 $ 391,151 $ 72,048 $ 13,443 $ 7,887 $ 2,297 $ 2,923 $ 489,749 March 29, 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 & Prior Total Non-Performing $ — $ 2,376 $ 1,774 $ 107 $ 25 $ 43 $ 4,325 Doubtful 478 4,169 529 51 — 726 5,953 Substandard 5,375 6,374 391 131 — — 12,271 Special Mention 5,239 8,001 977 6 — 1,268 15,491 Medium Risk 8,307 10,996 1,091 23 — 826 21,243 Low Risk 658,137 574,401 47,101 10,997 6,323 2,414 1,299,373 $ 677,536 $ 606,317 $ 51,863 $ 11,315 $ 6,348 $ 5,277 $ 1,358,656 Retail finance receivables are contractually delinquent if the minimum payment is not received by the specified due date. Retail finance receivables at amortized cost, excluding accrued interest, are generally charged-off when the receivable is 120 days or more delinquent, the related asset is repossessed, or the receivable is otherwise deemed uncollectible. The Company reverses accrued interest related to charged-off accounts against interest income when the account is charged-off. The Company reversed $5.2 million and $6.4 million of accrued interest against interest income during the three months ended March 28, 2021 and March 29, 2020, respectively. All retail finance receivables accrue interest until either collected or charged-off. Due to the timely write-off of accrued interest, the Company made the election provided under Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) Topic 326, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (ASC Topic 326) to exclude accrued interest from its allowance for credit losses. Accordingly, as of March 28, 2021, December 31, 2020 and March 29, 2020, all retail finance receivables were accounted for as interest-earning receivables. Wholesale finance receivables are delinquent if the minimum payment is not received by the contractual due date. Wholesale finance receivables are written down once the Company determines that the specific borrower does not have the ability to repay the loan in full. Interest continues to accrue on past due finance receivables until the date the Company determines that foreclosure is probable, and the finance receivable is placed on non-accrual status. The Company will resume accruing interest on these accounts when payments are current according to the terms of the loans and future payments are reasonably assured. While on non-accrual status, all cash received is applied to principal or interest as appropriate. Once an account is charged-off, the Company will reverse the associated accrued interest against interest income. As the Company follows a non-accrual policy for interest, the allowance for credit losses excludes accrued interest for the wholesale portfolio. There were no charged-off accounts during the three months ended March 28, 2021 and March 29, 2020. As such, the Company did not reverse any accrued interest in those periods. There were no dealers on non-accrual status at March 28, 2021 and December 31, 2020. At March 29, 2020, $4.3 million of wholesale finance receivables outstanding on non-accrual status, and of this, $2.6 million were over 90 days or more past due. Additional information related to the wholesale finance receivables on non-accrual status at March 29, 2020 includes (in thousands): Amortized Cost, Beginning of Period Amortized Cost, End of Period Interest Income Recognized No related allowance recorded $ — $ — $ — Related allowance recorded 4,994 4,325 — $ 4,994 $ 4,325 $ — The aging analysis of finance receivables was as follows (in thousands): March 28, 2021 Current 31-60 Days 61-90 Days Greater than Total Total Retail finance receivables $ 6,196,345 $ 69,032 $ 23,420 $ 22,185 $ 114,637 $ 6,310,982 Wholesale finance receivables 791,826 128 22 52 202 792,028 $ 6,988,171 $ 69,160 $ 23,442 $ 22,237 $ 114,839 $ 7,103,010 December 31, 2020 Current 31-60 Days 61-90 Days Greater than Total Total Retail finance receivables $ 6,164,369 $ 106,818 $ 39,933 $ 33,075 $ 179,826 $ 6,344,195 Wholesale finance receivables 489,556 166 23 4 193 489,749 $ 6,653,925 $ 106,984 $ 39,956 $ 33,079 $ 180,019 $ 6,833,944 March 29, 2020 Current 31-60 Days 61-90 Days Greater than Total Total Retail finance receivables $ 6,091,319 $ 101,412 $ 37,816 $ 38,700 $ 177,928 $ 6,269,247 Wholesale finance receivables 1,352,084 2,051 1,437 3,084 6,572 1,358,656 $ 7,443,403 $ 103,463 $ 39,253 $ 41,784 $ 184,500 $ 7,627,903 |