Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses | 8 - Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses The establishment of an appropriate liability for losses and loss expenses is an inherently uncertain process, and we can provide no assurance that our insurance subsidiaries’ ultimate liability will not exceed their loss and loss expense reserves and have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. For example, legislative, judicial and regulatory actions may expand coverage definitions, retroactively mandate coverage or otherwise require our insurance subsidiaries to pay losses for damages that their policies explicitly excluded or did not intend to cover. Furthermore, we cannot predict the timing, frequency and extent of adjustments to our insurance subsidiaries’ estimated future liabilities, because the historical conditions and events that serve as a basis for our insurance subsidiaries’ estimates of ultimate claim costs may change. As is the case for substantially all property and casualty insurance companies, our insurance subsidiaries have found it necessary in the past to increase their estimated future liabilities for losses and loss expenses in certain periods, and, in other periods, their estimates have exceeded their actual liabilities. Changes in our insurance subsidiaries’ estimate of their liability for losses and loss expenses generally reflect actual payments and their evaluation of information received since the prior reporting date. We summarize activity in our insurance subsidiaries’ liability for losses and loss expenses as follows: 2023 2022 2021 Balance at January 1 $ 1,121,045,758 $ 1,077,620,301 $ 962,007,437 Less reinsurance recoverable (451,184,222 ) (451,261,306 ) (404,818,480 ) Cumulative effect of adoption of updated accounting guidance for credit losses at January 1 1,131,836 — — Net balance at January 1 670,993,372 626,358,995 557,188,957 Incurred related to: Current year 625,831,043 608,900,206 551,917,571 Prior years (16,653,344 ) (44,821,213 ) (31,208,029 ) Total incurred 609,177,699 564,078,993 520,709,542 Paid related to: Current year 330,290,039 302,272,322 269,316,762 Prior years 260,738,168 218,304,130 182,222,742 Total paid 591,028,207 520,576,452 451,539,504 Net balance at December 31 689,142,864 669,861,536 626,358,995 Plus reinsurance recoverable 437,013,974 451,184,222 451,261,306 Balance at December 31 $ 1,126,156,838 $ 1,121,045,758 $ 1,077,620,301 Our insurance subsidiaries recognized a decrease in their liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years of $16.7 million, $44.8 million and $31.2 million in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Our insurance subsidiaries made no significant changes in their reserving philosophy or claims management personnel, and they have made no significant offsetting changes in estimates that increased or decreased their loss and loss expense reserves in those years. The 2023 development represented 2.5% of the December 31, 2022 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from lower-than-expected loss emergence in the personal automobile and commercial automobile lines of business for accident years prior to 2023. The majority of the 2023 development related to decreases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and MICO. The 2022 development represented 7.2% of the December 31, 2021 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from lower-than-expected loss emergence in the personal automobile and commercial automobile lines of business for accident years prior to 2022. The majority of the 2022 development related to decreases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and MICO. The 2021 development represented 5.6% of the December 31, 2020 net carried reserves and resulted primarily from lower-than-expected loss emergence in the personal automobile, workers’ compensation and commercial automobile lines of business for accident years prior to 2021. The majority of the 2021 development related to decreases in the liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years for Atlantic States and MICO. Short-duration contracts are contracts for which our insurance subsidiaries receive premiums that they recognize as revenue over the period of the contract in proportion to the amount of insurance protection our insurance subsidiaries provide. Our insurance subsidiaries consider the policies they issue to be short-duration contracts. We consider our insurance subsidiaries’ material lines of business to be personal automobile, homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and workers’ compensation. Our insurance subsidiaries determine incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves by subtracting the cumulative loss and loss expense amounts our insurance subsidiaries have paid and the case reserves our insurance subsidiaries have established at the balance sheet date from their actuaries’ estimate of the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries’ IBNR reserves include their actuaries’ projections of the cost of unreported claims as well as their actuaries’ projected development of case reserves on known claims and reopened claims. Our insurance subsidiaries’ methodology for estimating IBNR reserves has been in place for many years, and their actuaries made no significant changes to that methodology during 2023. The actuaries for our insurance subsidiaries generally prepare an initial estimate for ultimate losses and loss expenses for the current accident year by multiplying earned premium by an “ a priori The actuaries use a variety of actuarial methods to estimate the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. These methods include paid loss development, incurred loss development and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method from which the actuaries select loss development factor assumptions. The actuaries base their selection of a point estimate on a judgmental weighting of estimates each of these methods produce. The actuaries consider loss frequency and severity trends when they develop expected loss ratios and point estimates. Loss frequency is a measure of the number of claims per unit of insured exposure, and loss severity is a measure of the average size of claims. Factors that affect loss frequency include changes in weather patterns or economic activity. Factors that affect loss severity include changes in policy limits, reinsurance retentions, inflation rates and judicial interpretations. Our insurance subsidiaries create a claim file when they receive notice of an actual demand for payment, an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when they otherwise determine that a demand for payment could potentially lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage under the same policy or another policy they have issued. In recent years, our insurance subsidiaries have noted an increase in the period of time between the occurrence of a casualty loss event and the date on which they receive notice of a liability claim. Changes in the length of time between the loss occurrence date and the claim reporting date affect the actuaries’ ability to accurately predict loss frequency and the amount of IBNR reserves our insurance subsidiaries require. Our insurance subsidiaries generally create a claim file for a policy at the claimant level by type of coverage and generally recognize one count for each claim event. In certain lines of business where it is common for multiple parties to claim damages arising from a single claim event, our insurance subsidiaries recognize one count for each claimant involved in the event. Atlantic States recognizes one count for each claim event, or claimant involved in a multiple-party claim event, related to losses Atlantic States assumes through its participation in its pooling agreement with Donegal Mutual. Our insurance subsidiaries accumulate the claim counts and report them by line of business. For purposes of the claim development tables we present below, our insurance subsidiaries count claims on policies they issue even if they eventually close such claims without making a loss payment. Claims our insurance subsidiaries close without making a loss payment typically generate loss expenses. The methods our insurance subsidiaries have used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods we report in the tables below. The following tables present information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2023, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims that our insurance subsidiaries included within their net incurred claims amounts. The tables include unaudited information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2014 through 2022, which we present as supplementary information. Personal Automobile At December 31, 2023 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2014 $ 124,426 $ 124,806 $ 124,210 $ 126,200 $ 126,779 $ 126,734 $ 126,861 $ 126,977 $ 127,108 $ 127,148 $ 37 71 2015 137,569 139,333 139,181 142,493 142,408 142,073 142,010 141,965 141,894 61 70 2016 150,216 153,937 157,516 157,943 156,935 156,436 156,227 155,834 192 73 2017 166,690 176,728 175,939 174,784 173,730 173,032 172,712 353 79 2018 186,580 183,358 181,558 180,787 179,732 178,990 627 81 2019 161,056 157,689 156,300 154,805 153,883 1,227 68 2020 111,483 103,585 100,339 99,253 1,543 43 2021 119,364 118,752 114,707 2,792 47 2022 126,203 134,834 5,639 50 2023 152,740 27,416 50 Total $ 1,431,995 Personal Automobile Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unaudited (in thousands) 2014 $ 85,377 $ 104,736 $ 114,893 $ 120,491 $ 123,815 $ 124,926 $ 125,619 $ 125,762 $ 126,701 $ 127,026 2015 93,611 116,303 128,395 135,027 139,121 140,028 140,892 141,172 141,298 2016 102,433 129,507 143,321 151,159 153,521 154,769 155,521 155,505 2017 111,964 142,372 159,879 166,099 169,190 170,895 171,513 2018 115,585 150,175 163,036 169,651 173,922 176,233 2019 103,101 127,187 141,004 146,667 150,017 2020 66,084 81,783 89,736 94,094 2021 76,477 93,998 103,427 2022 83,616 109,845 2023 99,574 Total 1,328,532 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 994 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 104,457 Homeowners At December 31, 2023 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2014 $ 56,916 $ 58,378 $ 57,680 $ 57,332 $ 57,288 $ 57,402 $ 57,367 $ 57,371 $ 57,353 $ 57,362 $ — 17 2015 63,359 63,925 63,053 63,071 63,099 62,993 63,043 63,036 63,042 — 14 2016 62,443 64,064 63,735 63,355 63,279 63,409 63,472 63,478 3 12 2017 79,283 79,911 79,305 79,247 79,065 78,815 78,819 24 17 2018 81,965 83,385 82,905 82,566 82,058 81,977 78 19 2019 73,294 73,554 73,234 72,168 72,176 187 16 2020 61,633 62,718 61,595 61,495 385 14 2021 67,677 66,996 65,451 496 11 2022 82,433 82,045 1,846 10 2023 86,693 8,046 10 Total $ 712,538 Homeowners Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unaudited (in thousands) 2014 $ 45,823 $ 56,255 $ 56,990 $ 57,195 $ 56,995 $ 57,243 $ 57,336 $ 57,339 $ 57,318 $ 57,327 2015 51,885 61,542 62,204 62,590 62,844 62,943 62,936 62,938 63,042 2016 50,125 61,145 62,760 63,144 63,162 63,217 63,266 63,296 2017 67,077 77,663 78,006 78,127 78,454 78,528 78,556 2018 70,385 79,892 80,905 81,464 81,568 81,826 2019 58,074 69,145 70,416 70,884 71,209 2020 51,226 60,348 60,809 61,189 2021 52,161 63,920 64,124 2022 63,107 79,187 2023 67,636 Total 687,392 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 148 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 25,294 Commercial Automobile At December 31, 2023 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2014 $ 42,760 $ 44,544 $ 47,326 $ 48,213 $ 49,284 $ 49,168 $ 49,308 $ 49,291 $ 49,285 $ 49,212 $ 8 11 2015 46,526 48,323 51,412 54,259 54,517 54,619 53,793 53,477 53,431 33 12 2016 54,302 57,353 65,905 67,127 66,894 66,085 65,922 65,602 71 13 2017 61,484 67,927 67,697 67,249 65,310 64,631 65,022 105 14 2018 79,307 81,396 82,313 83,043 82,226 82,368 207 15 2019 88,864 91,245 90,290 86,140 84,566 729 16 2020 90,367 87,766 85,016 83,590 2,528 14 2021 109,824 99,231 96,947 6,346 14 2022 115,287 108,690 17,627 15 2023 112,135 37,768 14 Total $ 801,563 Commercial Automobile Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unaudited (in thousands) 2014 $ 22,707 $ 31,089 $ 39,436 $ 44,374 $ 47,290 $ 48,418 $ 48,603 $ 48,714 $ 48,757 $ 48,829 2015 23,875 35,342 41,678 48,261 51,605 51,992 52,728 53,052 53,047 2016 27,033 38,237 48,837 57,237 60,485 64,421 65,076 65,273 2017 28,707 40,213 49,703 57,128 59,889 62,187 64,074 2018 33,862 47,941 57,451 69,487 74,421 79,308 2019 36,948 53,026 63,575 72,139 80,617 2020 31,884 46,459 60,665 70,669 2021 39,851 56,101 69,908 2022 46,242 67,367 2023 45,387 Total 644,479 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 88 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 157,172 Commercial Multi-Peril At December 31, 2023 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2014 $ 48,204 $ 50,135 $ 51,843 $ 52,336 $ 53,294 $ 53,116 $ 52,926 $ 52,933 $ 53,502 $ 53,395 $ — 7 2015 42,070 43,874 44,728 45,104 45,873 45,366 45,420 45,595 46,181 — 6 2016 43,005 46,988 48,267 48,871 48,732 48,823 48,802 48,374 135 6 2017 56,185 56,043 56,517 54,812 55,076 54,244 55,002 187 7 2018 66,265 66,470 67,749 67,810 65,911 65,900 624 7 2019 71,865 73,836 76,326 75,821 76,015 2,093 7 2020 83,195 79,910 76,490 74,796 4,524 8 2021 116,827 117,574 119,321 14,055 7 2022 142,395 141,935 27,544 7 2023 129,069 43,788 5 Total $ 809,988 Commercial Multi-Peril Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unaudited (in thousands) 2014 $ 27,920 $ 35,520 $ 40,936 $ 47,021 $ 50,017 $ 51,615 $ 52,103 $ 52,252 $ 52,875 $ 53,074 2015 21,837 29,419 34,323 39,162 42,849 44,090 44,439 44,764 45,572 2016 19,660 29,402 34,612 41,193 43,435 44,944 47,432 48,048 2017 27,399 36,926 42,691 46,361 49,488 51,494 52,422 2018 30,597 42,296 48,050 54,913 59,118 62,253 2019 28,210 41,266 47,522 55,951 63,156 2020 34,729 46,193 52,646 58,754 2021 46,768 69,735 82,580 2022 57,641 86,664 2023 56,238 Total 608,761 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 521 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 201,748 Workers’ Compensation At December 31, 2023 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2014 $ 51,508 $ 51,553 $ 49,288 $ 48,537 $ 47,540 $ 47,693 $ 47,849 $ 47,620 $ 47,794 $ 47,623 $ 7 6 2015 53,332 49,615 45,991 44,986 43,006 42,597 42,225 42,043 41,875 141 6 2016 58,814 49,802 47,883 44,969 44,098 43,559 43,484 43,447 387 6 2017 60,450 56,351 52,687 51,464 49,557 48,802 48,668 753 6 2018 62,197 55,291 52,514 47,912 47,007 46,742 924 6 2019 60,998 59,624 57,728 56,480 55,893 1,003 7 2020 57,172 57,850 57,384 56,714 1,824 6 2021 67,035 65,530 64,225 3,550 7 2022 67,046 67,331 6,428 7 2023 62,401 21,881 5 Total $ 534,919 Workers’ Compensation Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unaudited (in thousands) 2014 $ 13,932 $ 28,513 $ 36,284 $ 40,393 $ 42,465 $ 43,866 $ 44,403 $ 44,671 $ 45,314 $ 45,905 2015 13,071 27,531 34,192 36,929 37,936 38,596 39,096 39,478 39,762 2016 14,709 30,344 37,178 40,570 41,208 41,543 41,809 42,195 2017 15,581 31,990 39,684 42,954 44,242 45,174 45,935 2018 17,644 31,928 37,072 41,611 43,279 44,359 2019 16,939 33,009 41,740 47,121 50,079 2020 14,591 32,817 44,089 48,259 2021 20,931 42,633 51,781 2022 18,643 41,225 2023 17,546 Total 427,046 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance 5,251 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 113,124 The following table presents a reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for claims and claims adjustment expenses in our consolidated balance sheet: At December 31, (in thousands) 2023 Net outstanding liabilities: Personal automobile $ 104,457 Homeowners 25,294 Commercial automobile 157,172 Commercial multi-peril 201,748 Workers ’ 113,124 Other 34,916 636,711 Reinsurance recoverable: Personal automobile $ 98,157 Homeowners 15,325 Commercial automobile 94,517 Commercial multi-peril 118,979 Workers ’ 84,766 Other 6,643 418,387 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses $ 71,059 Gross liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses $ 1,126,157 The following table presents supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2023: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Personal automobile 65.6 % 16.9 % 8.5 % 4.2 % 2.2 % 0.9 % 0.5 % 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.3 % Homeowners 81.1 16.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 — 0.1 — Commercial automobile 42.3 18.1 14.4 11.9 6.2 3.7 1.4 0.4 — 0.1 Commercial multi-peril 44.3 17.6 9.8 10.3 6.6 3.4 2.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 Workers’ compensation 30.9 32.6 15.6 8.1 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 |