Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses | 8 - Liability for Losses and Loss Expenses The establishment of an appropriate liability for losses and loss expenses is an inherently uncertain process, and we can provide no assurance that our insurance subsidiaries’ ultimate liability will not exceed their loss and loss expense reserves and have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. For example, legislative, judicial and regulatory actions may expand coverage definitions, retroactively mandate coverage or otherwise require our insurance subsidiaries to pay losses for damages that their policies explicitly excluded or did not intend to cover. Furthermore, we cannot predict the timing, frequency and extent of adjustments to our insurance subsidiaries’ estimated future liabilities, because the historical conditions and events that serve as a basis for our insurance subsidiaries’ estimates of ultimate claim costs may change. As is the case for substantially all property and casualty insurance companies, our insurance subsidiaries have found it necessary in the past to increase their estimated future liabilities for losses and loss expenses in certain periods, and, in other periods, their estimates have exceeded their actual liabilities. Changes in our insurance subsidiaries’ estimate of their liability for losses and loss expenses generally reflect actual payments and their evaluation of information received since the prior reporting date. We summarize activity in our insurance subsidiaries’ liability for losses and loss expenses as follows: 2020 2019 2018 Balance at January 1 $ 869,673,849 $ 814,665,224 $ 676,671,727 Less reinsurance recoverable (362,768,427 ) (339,267,525 ) (293,271,257 ) Net balance at January 1 506,905,422 475,397,699 383,400,470 Incurred related to: Current year 472,709,060 519,319,941 540,826,810 Prior years (12,944,767 ) (12,932,277 ) 35,631,610 Total incurred 459,764,293 506,387,664 576,458,420 Paid related to: Current year 236,984,291 278,923,614 308,578,285 Prior years 172,496,467 195,956,327 175,882,906 Total paid 409,480,758 474,879,941 484,461,191 Net balance at December 31 557,188,957 506,905,422 475,397,699 Plus reinsurance recoverable 404,818,480 362,768,427 339,267,525 Balance at December 31 $ 962,007,437 $ 869,673,849 $ 814,665,224 Our insurance subsidiaries recognized a decrease in their liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years of million in each of 2020 and 2019. Our insurance subsidiaries recognized an increase in their liability for losses and loss expenses of prior years of million in 2018. Our insurance subsidiaries made no significant changes in their reserving philosophy or claims management personnel conclude that their prior actuarial assumptions did not fully anticipate recent changes in severity and reporting trends. Our insurance subsidiaries have encountered increasing difficulties in projecting the ultimate severity of automobile losses over recent accident years, which our insurance subsidiaries attribute to worsening litigation trends and an increased delay in the reporting to our insurance subsidiaries of information with respect to the severity of claims. As a result, our insurance subsidiaries’ actuaries increased their projections of the ultimate cost of our insurance subsidiaries’ prior-year personal automobile and commercial automobile losses, and our insurance subsidiaries added $17.7 million to their reserves for personal automobile and $20.8 million to their reserves for commercial automobile for accident years prior to 2018. Short-duration contracts are contracts for which our insurance subsidiaries receive premiums that they recognize as revenue over the period of the contract in proportion to the amount of insurance protection our insurance subsidiaries provide. Our insurance subsidiaries consider the policies they issue to be short-duration contracts. We consider our insurance subsidiaries’ material lines of business to be personal automobile, homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and workers’ compensation. Our insurance subsidiaries determine incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves by subtracting the cumulative loss and loss expense amounts our insurance subsidiaries have paid and the case reserves our insurance subsidiaries have established at the balance sheet date from their actuaries’ estimate of the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries’ IBNR reserves include their actuaries’ projections of the cost of unreported claims as well as their actuaries’ projected development of case reserves on known claims and reopened claims. Our insurance subsidiaries’ methodology for estimating IBNR reserves has been in place for many years, and their actuaries made no significant changes to that methodology during 2020. The actuaries for our insurance subsidiaries generally prepare an initial estimate for ultimate losses and loss expenses for the current accident year by multiplying earned premium by an expected loss ratio for each line of business our insurance subsidiaries write. Expected loss ratios represent the actuaries’ expectation of losses at the time our insurance subsidiaries price and write their policies, before the emergence of any actual claims experience. The actuaries determine an expected loss ratio by analyzing historical experience and adjusting for loss cost trends, loss frequency and severity trends, premium rate level changes, reported and paid loss emergence patterns and other known or observed factors. The actuaries use a variety of actuarial methods to estimate the ultimate cost of losses and loss expenses. These methods include paid loss development, incurred loss development and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. The actuaries base their selection of a point estimate on a judgmental weighting of estimates each of these methods produce. The actuaries consider loss frequency and severity trends when they develop expected loss ratios and point estimates. Loss frequency is a measure of the number of claims per unit of insured exposure, and loss severity is a measure of the average size of claims. Factors that affect loss frequency include changes in weather patterns or economic activity. Factors that affect loss severity include changes in policy limits, reinsurance retentions, inflation rates and judicial interpretations. Our insurance subsidiaries create a claim file when they receive notice of an actual demand for payment, an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when they otherwise determine that a demand for payment could potentially lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage under the same policy or another policy they have issued. In recent years, our insurance subsidiaries have noted an increase in the period of time between the occurrence of a casualty loss event and the date on which they receive notice of a liability claim. Changes in the length of time between the loss occurrence date and the claim reporting date affect the actuaries’ ability to accurately predict loss frequency and the amount of IBNR reserves our insurance subsidiaries require. Our insurance subsidiaries generally create a claim file for a policy at the claimant level by type of coverage and generally recognize one count for each claim event. In certain lines of business where it is common for multiple parties to claim damages arising from a single claim event, our insurance subsidiaries recognize one count for each claimant involved in the event. Atlantic States recognizes one count for each claim event, or claimant involved in a multiple-party claim event, related to losses Atlantic States assumes through its participation in its pooling agreement with Donegal Mutual. Our insurance subsidiaries accumulate the claim counts and report them by line of business. For purposes of the claim development tables we present below, our insurance subsidiaries count claims on policies they issue even if they eventually close such claims without making a loss payment. Claims our insurance subsidiaries close without making a loss payment typically generate loss expenses. The methods our insurance subsidiaries have used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods we report in the tables below. The following tables present information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2020, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the total of IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims that our insurance subsidiaries included within their net incurred claims amounts. The tables include unaudited information about incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2011 through 2019, which we present as supplementary information. Personal At December 31, 2020 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total IBNR Cumulative Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2011 $ 127,929 $ 131,678 $ 132,987 $ 133,229 $ 133,617 $ 133,218 $ 133,145 $ 133,142 $ 133,207 $ 133,192 $ 69 75 2012 130,415 133,201 135,592 136,493 136,552 136,463 136,141 136,677 136,648 194 69 2013 124,965 130,737 131,594 132,643 132,604 132,934 132,853 132,690 136 66 2014 124,426 124,806 124,210 126,200 126,779 126,734 126,861 219 71 2015 137,569 139,333 139,181 142,493 142,408 142,073 499 70 2016 150,216 153,937 157,516 157,943 156,935 1,349 73 2017 166,690 176,728 175,939 174,784 2,567 79 2018 186,580 183,358 181,558 5,837 81 2019 161,056 157,689 10,276 68 2020 111,483 25,587 42 Total $ 1,453,913 Personal Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unaudited (in thousands) 2011 $ 87,191 $ 110,249 $ 121,621 $ 127,545 $ 131,319 $ 132,479 $ 132,714 $ 132,777 $ 132,835 $ 133,002 2012 87,517 111,941 124,652 130,862 133,428 134,581 135,132 136,137 136,165 2013 84,241 109,051 120,118 125,946 130,026 131,326 131,642 132,215 2014 85,377 104,736 114,893 120,491 123,815 124,926 125,619 2015 93,611 116,303 128,395 135,027 139,121 140,028 2016 102,433 129,507 143,321 151,159 153,521 2017 111,964 142,372 159,879 166,099 2018 115,585 150,175 163,036 2019 103,101 127,187 2020 66,084 Total 1,342,956 All outstanding liabilities before 2011, net of reinsurance 647 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 111,604 Homeowners At December 31, 2020 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total IBNR Cumulative Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2011 $ 71,256 $ 70,461 $ 70,436 $ 70,381 $ 70,297 $ 70,351 $ 70,479 $ 70,642 $ 70,682 $ 70,689 $ — 26 2012 53,962 54,794 54,468 54,351 54,281 54,381 54,523 54,557 54,548 — 18 2013 50,887 51,121 51,122 50,874 50,988 50,971 51,008 51,064 — 12 2014 56,916 58,378 57,680 57,332 57,288 57,402 57,367 — 17 2015 63,359 63,925 63,053 63,071 63,099 62,993 28 13 2016 62,443 64,064 63,735 63,355 63,279 25 12 2017 79,283 79,911 79,305 79,247 342 17 2018 81,965 83,385 82,905 838 19 2019 73,294 73,554 1,830 15 2020 61,633 6,235 12 Total $ 657,279 Homeowners Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unaudited (in thousands) 2011 $ 57,588 $ 69,345 $ 70,125 $ 70,351 $ 70,541 $ 70,626 $ 70,648 $ 70,692 $ 70,692 $ 70,693 2012 46,566 53,619 54,028 54,298 54,317 54,356 54,557 54,557 54,553 2013 40,949 49,410 50,210 50,478 51,043 50,902 50,967 50,965 2014 45,823 56,255 56,990 57,195 56,995 57,243 57,336 2015 51,885 61,542 62,204 62,590 62,844 62,943 2016 50,125 61,145 62,760 63,144 63,162 2017 67,077 77,663 78,006 78,127 2018 70,385 79,892 80,905 2019 58,074 69,145 2020 51,226 Total 639,055 All outstanding liabilities before 2011, net of reinsurance 99 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 18,323 Commercial At December 31, 2020 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total IBNR Cumulative Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2011 $ 26,642 $ 27,157 $ 28,570 $ 28,893 $ 29,112 $ 29,107 $ 29,487 $ 29,751 $ 29,542 $ 29,493 $ 17 4 2012 26,557 27,720 30,606 31,435 31,278 31,648 31,803 31,896 31,930 27 8 2013 32,902 33,749 34,751 35,240 36,404 36,435 36,569 36,181 64 8 2014 42,760 44,544 47,326 48,213 49,284 49,168 49,308 192 11 2015 46,526 48,323 51,412 54,259 54,517 54,619 452 12 2016 54,302 57,353 65,905 67,127 66,894 861 13 2017 61,484 67,927 67,697 67,249 2,823 13 2018 79,307 81,396 82,313 5,254 15 2019 88,864 91,245 15,356 15 2020 90,367 32,130 13 Total $ 599,599 Commercial Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unaudited (in thousands) 2011 $ 13,876 $ 19,106 $ 24,267 $ 26,973 $ 28,014 $ 28,758 $ 28,836 $ 29,102 $ 29,474 $ 29,476 2012 13,642 20,240 23,718 27,417 29,873 30,402 31,104 31,228 31,263 2013 16,306 23,557 26,879 31,053 34,083 36,004 36,106 36,092 2014 22,707 31,089 39,436 44,374 47,290 48,418 48,603 2015 23,875 35,342 41,678 48,261 51,605 51,992 2016 27,033 38,237 48,837 57,237 60,485 2017 28,707 40,213 49,703 57,128 2018 33,862 47,941 57,451 2019 36,948 53,026 2020 31,884 Total 457,400 All outstanding liabilities before 2011, net of reinsurance 244 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 142,443 Commercial At December 31, 2020 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total IBNR Cumulative Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2011 $ 33,054 $ 35,411 $ 35,942 $ 37,576 $ 37,385 $ 38,270 $ 38,105 $ 38,160 $ 38,434 $ 38,478 $ — 7 2012 29,789 30,716 32,449 34,117 35,755 36,214 36,525 36,876 36,662 — 6 2013 35,683 35,679 37,292 37,205 37,981 37,365 37,453 37,495 (1 ) 6 2014 48,204 50,135 51,843 52,336 53,294 53,116 52,926 119 7 2015 42,070 43,874 44,728 45,104 45,873 45,366 186 6 2016 43,005 46,988 48,267 48,871 48,732 857 6 2017 56,185 56,043 56,517 54,812 2,253 7 2018 66,265 66,470 67,749 6,243 7 2019 71,865 73,836 12,530 7 2020 83,195 26,981 7 Total $ 539,251 Commercial Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unaudited (in thousands) 2011 $ 18,773 $ 24,767 $ 30,286 $ 33,526 $ 36,722 $ 37,759 $ 38,240 $ 38,366 $ 38,413 $ 38,457 2012 16,666 23,384 26,634 29,370 33,327 35,331 35,909 36,329 36,399 2013 19,875 26,216 29,159 33,614 35,104 36,321 37,333 37,436 2014 27,920 35,520 40,936 47,021 50,017 51,615 52,103 2015 21,837 29,419 34,323 39,162 42,849 44,090 2016 19,660 29,402 34,612 41,193 43,435 2017 27,399 36,926 42,691 46,361 2018 30,597 42,296 48,050 2019 28,210 41,266 2020 34,729 Total 422,326 All outstanding liabilities before 2011, net of reinsurance 612 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of $ 117,537 Workers’ At December 31, 2020 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total IBNR Cumulative Unaudited (dollars and reported claims in thousands) 2011 $ 32,490 $ 35,757 $ 36,614 $ 36,369 $ 35,670 $ 35,039 $ 35,194 $ 34,926 $ 35,034 $ 35,045 $ 27 5 2012 39,142 39,516 38,827 37,926 37,163 36,468 35,954 35,932 36,014 69 5 2013 46,325 47,027 44,289 42,828 42,327 42,555 42,651 42,341 116 6 2014 51,508 51,553 49,288 48,537 47,540 47,693 47,849 193 6 2015 53,332 49,615 45,991 44,986 43,006 42,597 548 5 2016 58,814 49,802 47,883 44,969 44,098 840 5 2017 60,450 56,351 52,687 51,464 2,742 5 2018 62,197 55,291 52,514 4,114 6 2019 60,998 59,624 7,825 6 2020 57,172 19,283 5 Total $ 468,718 Workers’ Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Year Ended December 31, Accident 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unaudited (in thousands) 2011 $ 9,157 $ 21,450 $ 27,517 $ 31,905 $ 32,394 $ 33,067 $ 33,577 $ 33,963 $ 34,109 $ 34,261 2012 11,097 22,963 28,812 31,244 33,196 34,177 34,460 34,622 34,691 2013 13,052 26,043 32,783 36,351 38,877 39,617 40,361 40,827 2014 13,932 28,513 36,284 40,393 42,465 43,866 44,403 2015 13,071 27,531 34,192 36,929 37,936 38,596 2016 14,709 30,344 37,178 40,570 41,208 2017 15,581 31,990 39,684 42,954 2018 17,644 31,928 37,072 2019 16,939 33,009 2020 14,591 Total 361,612 All outstanding liabilities before 2011, net of reinsurance 3,343 Liabilities for claims and claims adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 110,449 The following table presents a reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for claims and claims adjustment expenses in our consolidated balance sheet: (in thousands) At Net outstanding liabilities: Personal automobile $ 111,604 Homeowners 18,323 Commercial automobile 142,443 Commercial multi-peril 117,537 Workers ’ 110,449 Other 17,759 518,115 Reinsurance recoverable: Personal automobile $ 117,575 Homeowners 10,597 Commercial automobile 90,436 Commercial multi-peril 75,801 Workers ’ 86,479 Other 7,420 388,308 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses $ 55,584 Gross liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses $ 962,007 The following table presents supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2020: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Personal automobile 64.6 % 17.1 % 8.6 % 4.4 % 2.5 % 0.8 % 0.3 % 0.4 % — % 0.1 % Homeowners 82.0 15.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 — — — Commercial automobile 42.5 18.3 13.5 11.1 6.1 2.5 0.8 0.4 0.7 — Commercial multi-peril 46.4 17.1 10.2 10.0 6.9 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 Workers’ compensation 29.9 31.6 15.2 8.1 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.4 |