Province Of British Columbia 18-K/A Annual report (foreign governments) (amended)

Exhibit 99.11

 

BUDGET 2024 Taking Action For You FIRST QUARTERLY REPORT SEPTEMBER 2024 BRITISH COLUMBIA StrongerBC for everyone

  

This page intentionally left blank

 

First Quarterly Report Fiscal Plan Update 2024/25 – 2026/272024/25 Economic Outlook and Financial Forecast & Three Month Results April - June 2024 BRITISH COLUMBIA Ministry of Finance

British Columbia Cataloguing in Publication Data

British Columbia. Ministry of Finance.

Quarterly report on the economy, fiscal situation and Crown corporations. — ongoing—

Quarterly.

Title on cover: Quarterly report.

Continues: British Columbia. Ministry of Finance.

Quarterly financial report. ISSN 0833-1375.

ISSN 1192-2176 — Quarterly Report on the economy, fiscal situation and Crown corporations.

1. Finance, Public — British Columbia — Accounting — Periodicals.

2. British Columbia — Economic conditions — 1945—       — Periodicals.*

3. Corporations, Government — British Columbia — Accounting — Periodicals. I. Title.

HJ13.B77         354.711’007231’05

2024/25 First Quarterly Report
September 10, 2024 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Updated Fiscal Plan 2024/25 to 2026/27
Tables:
Updated Fiscal Plan 2024/25 to 2026/27	1
Part One — Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast
Introduction	5
Revenue	7
Expense	10
Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF) Spending	11
Service Delivery Agency Spending	12
Full-Time Equivalents for the BC Public Service	12
Provincial Capital Spending	12
Projects Over $50 million	13
Provincial Debt	18
Risks to the Fiscal Forecast	20
Supplementary Schedules	21
Tables:
1.1       Forecast Update	5
1.2       Financial Forecast Changes	6
1.3       Comparison of Major Factors Underlying Revenue	8
1.4       Capital Spending Update	12
1.5       Provincial Debt Update	18
1.6       Operating Statement	21
1.7       Revenue by Source	22
1.8       Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency	23
1.9       Expense by Function	24
1.10     Capital Spending	25
1.11     Projects Over $50 million	26
1.12     Provincial Debt	31
1.13     Statement of Financial Position	32

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  i

Table of Contents

PartTwo — Economic Review and Outlook
Summary		33
British Columbia Economic Activity and Outlook		34
Labour Market		35
Demographics		36
Consumer Spending and Inflation		37
Housing		39
Business and Government		41
External Trade and Commodity Markets		42
Risks to the Economic Outlook		44
External Outlook		45
United States		45
Canada		48
Asia		50
Europe		51
Financial Markets		52
Interest Rates		52
Exchange Rates		53
Tables:
2.1	British Columbia Economic Indicators	34
2.2	U.S. Real GDP Forecast: Consensus vs B.C. Ministry of Finance	47
2.3	Canadian Real GDP Forecast: Consensus vs B.C. Ministry of Finance	49
2.4	Private Sector Canadian Interest Rate Forecasts	53
2.5	Private Sector Exchange Rate Forecasts	54
2.6.1	Gross Domestic Product (GDP): British Columbia	55
2.6.2	Selected Nominal Income and Other Indicators: British Columbia	56
2.6.3	Labour Market Indicators: British Columbia	56
2.6.4	Major Economic Assumptions	57

ii  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Table of Contents

Appendix — Fiscal Plan Update
Tables:
A1	Material Assumptions – Revenue	59
A2	Natural Gas Price Forecasts – 2024/25 to 2026/27	64
A3	Material Assumptions – Expense	66
A4	Operating Statement – 2017/18 to 2026/27	69
A5	Revenue by Source – 2017/18 to 2026/27	70
A6	Revenue by Source Supplementary Information – 2017/18 to 2026/27	71
A7	Expense by Function – 2017/18 to 2026/27	72
A8	Expense by Function Supplementary Information – 2017/18 to 2026/27	73
A9	Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) – 2017/18 to 2026/27	74
A10	Capital Spending – 2017/18 to 2026/27	75
A11	Statement of Financial Position – 2017/18 to 2026/27	76
A12	Changes in Financial Position – 2017/18 to 2026/27	77
A13	Provincial Debt – 2017/18 to 2026/27	78
A14	Provincial Debt Supplementary Information – 2017/18 to 2026/27	79
A15	Key Provincial Debt Indicators – 2017/18 to 2026/27	80

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  iii

UPDATED FISCAL PLAN – 2024/25 to 2026/27

($ millions)	2024/25		2025/26		2026/27
Deficit - Budget 2024	(7,911	)	(7,773	)	(6,288	)
Fiscal Plan Updates:
Personal income tax revenue	480		383		413
Corporate income tax revenue	(638	)	442		(398	)
Sales tax revenue	(54	)	(58	)	(116	)
Employer health tax revenue	159		164		171
Property transfer tax revenue	25		70		106
Other taxation revenue	5		(21	)	(36	)
Natural gas royalties revenue	(49	)	285		248
Forest revenue	(103	)	(65	)	(68	)
Other natural resources revenue	(147	)	(130	)	(44	)
Contributions from the federal government	115		111		109
Other revenue	454		336		276
Fire management costs	(653	)	-		-
Debt servicing costs	(344	)	(180	)	(188	)
Other spending changes	(318	)	(264	)	(280	)
Deficit - First Quarterly Report	(8,979	)	(6,700	)	(6,095	)
Contingencies Vote Levels:
General Contingencies	3,500		1,700		1,600
CleanBC	385		320		130
Priority spending initiatives and caseload pressures	-		1,000		2,000
	3,885		3,020		3,730
Capital Spending Levels:
Taxpayer-supported capital spending	13,609		15,313		14,538
Self-supported capital spending	4,418		4,285		4,769
	18,027		19,598		19,307
Provincial Debt Levels and Metrics:
Taxpayer-supported debt	93,346		113,790		133,364
Self-supported debt	35,264		37,185		39,568
Total provincial debt	128,610		150,975		172,932
Taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio	22.0	%	25.7	%	28.8	%
Taxpayer-supported debt-to-revenue ratio	117.1	%	139.1	%	158.0	%

Financial Outlook

The First Quarterly Report shows an increased deficit forecast for 2024/25 mainly due to higher spending for wildfire management and interest costs. There are many changes across various revenue sources that have offsetting impacts and as a result, overall revenue remains largely unchanged since budget. The deficit projection is lower in 2025/26 and 2026/27 reflecting improved revenue forecasts for personal income tax and natural gas royalties as well as changes in other revenue streams, as outlined in this report.

Compared to Budget 2024, revenue forecasts are higher by $247 million in 2024/25, $1.5 billion in 2025/26 and $661 million in 2026/27.

Expense projections are higher by $1.3 billion in 2024/25, $444 million in 2025/26 and $468 million in 2026/27. These changes result in forecast deficits of $9.0 billion, $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in each respective fiscal year, as shown in the table above.

Personal income taxation revenue is higher by $1.3 billion over the fiscal plan period mainly reflecting stronger household incomes and federal budget measures. Corporate income tax projections have been updated to reflect the federal government's updated forecast of national corporate taxable income, with a reduction in 2024/25 and an increase in 2025/26.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  1

Updated Fiscal Plan – 2024/25 to 2026/27

Over the three years, natural resource revenue is forecast to be largely consistent with Budget 2024 projections with only a net reduction of $73 million. Natural gas royalties reflect changes in prices, volumes, natural gas liquids royalties and utilization of royal and infrastructure programs and credits. The forecast includes the impacts of an extended transition period for the new royalty system. Forestry revenues are expected to decline across the fiscal plan reflecting lower stumpagerevenues due to decreased lumber prices. Columbia River Treaty electricity sales are lower due to anticipated reduced volumes under the new Agreement-in-Principle between Canada and the United States, partially offset by annual payments for flood risk management.

Contributions from the federal government are forecast to increase over the plan period mainly for Canada health and social transfers to reflect higher population growth in British Columbia.

Compared to budget, expenses in 2024/25 are expected to be higher mainly as a result of wildfire response costs and higher interest costs due to higher opening debt balances and accelerated timing of borrowing in-year. The updated expense outlook also includes higher net spending by government organizations and other statutory spending.

Economic Outlook

The First Quarterly Report forecast for B.C.'s economy is generally in line with Budget 2024 expectations, with B.C. real GDP growth in 2024 revised up slightly to 1.0 per cent from 0.8 per cent, and the forecast for 2025 revised down to 2.0 per cent from 2.3 per cent. These revisions reflect increases in government spending and investment as reported in Budget 2024, and weaker exports and the impact of high interest rates over a longer than expected period.

Employment has exceeded expectations so far this year, while retail sales and exports have underperformed. High interest rates have continued to weigh on home sales but home construction remains strong and government's capital spending plans are expected to support economic activity. Inflation has continued to trend toward the Bank of Canada's target range, but shelter prices remain elevated. Despite ongoing global economic uncertainty, the province benefits from a diverse economy and is well positioned to weather ongoing global, national, and local economic challenges.

British Columbia's Real GDP Outlook

 

B.C.’s economy is expected to see solid growth from 2026 to 2028, with average annual real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent, similar to the Budget 2024 forecast.

Capital Investments

Taxpayer-supported capital spending on hospitals, education facilities, transportation infrastructure, housing and other projects is financed through a combination of provincial borrowing, funding provided by third parties, and from internal cash flows. Taxpayer-supported capital spending is forecast to total $43.5 billion over the fiscal plan period, which is $191 million higher than the Budget 2024 forecast mainly due to changes in the timing of capital projects.

Over the three years, self-supported infrastructure spending by commercial Crown corporations totals $13.5 billion.

2  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated Fiscal Plan – 2024/25 to 2026/27

Debt Affordability

Taxpayer-supported debt is now projected at $133.4 billion by 2026/27, $6.9 billion higher than budget, mainly due to higher debt balances at the end of fiscal 2023/24 carrying forward over the fiscal plan period. As a result, government’s key debt affordability metric, the taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio, is forecast to be higher than Budget 2024 across the three years – reaching 28.8 per cent by 2026/27. B.C. continues to have one of the lowest debt-affordability metrics relative to other Canadian provinces.

Taxpayer-Supported Debt-to-GDP

Including the self-supported debt of commercial Crown corporations, total provincial debt is projected at $172.9 billion by the end of 2026/27.

Risks to the Fiscal Plan

The main risks to the government’s fiscal plan include:

● risks to the B.C. economic outlook, such as uncertainty surrounding global economic activity, potential for interest rates to remain elevated for longer, and uncertainty in immigration levels;

● assumptions underlying revenue and Crown corporation forecasts such as economic factors and commodity prices;

● increased spending which may include wildfire and floods response and increased demand and costs for government services such as health care and social services; and

● potential changes to federal government transfer allocations, cost-sharing agreements with the federal government, and impacts on the provincial income tax bases arising from federal tax policy and budget changes.

To mitigate against unexpected and unknown costs, the Contingencies Vote includes budget allocations of $3.9 billion in 2024/25, $3.0 billion in 2025/26, and $3.7 billion in 2026/27. This includes funding to address caseload pressures and priority initiatives. There are no changes to the Contingencies Vote forecast compared to Budget 2024 at this time.

Conclusion

B.C.’s fiscal forecast for 2024/25 shows a higher deficit from budget in 2024/25, mainly as a result of higher spending for wildfire response and debt servicing costs, but with improvements in 2025/26 and 2026/27 due to increasing revenue outlooks. The province’s economy continues to be resilient, and taxpayer-supported debt remains affordable compared to its peers.

Government continues to make investments to tackle priorities outlined in Budget 2024, including cost of living, housing, health and public services and a clean economy.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  3

This page intentionally left blank

PART 1    |   UPDATED 2024/25 FINANCIAL FORECAST

Introduction

Table 1.1    2024/25 Forecast Update

($ millions)	Budget 2024			First Quarterly Report			Change
Revenue		81,523			81,770			247
Expense		(89,434	)		(90,749	)		(1,315	)
Deficit		(7,911	)		(8,979	)		(1,068	)
Capital Spending:
Taxpayer-supported capital spending		14,104			13,609			(495	)
Self-supported capital spending		4,652			4,418			(234	)
		18,756			18,027			(729	)
Provincial Debt:
Taxpayer-supported debt		88,639			93,346			4,707
Self-supported debt		34,628			35,264			636
Total provincial debt		123,267			128,610			5,343
Taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio		21.0	%		22.0	%		1.0	%
Taxpayer-supported debt-to-revenue ratio		111.8	%		117.1	%		5.3	%

The first quarter update for 2024/25 shows an increase in spending and a slight improvement in revenue resulting in a deficit of $9.0 billion, up $1.1 billion from the budget deficit forecast of $7.9 billion. The forecast for revenue is lower for corporate income tax, and natural resources, offset by increases from personal income tax and investment earnings. The expense forecast is higher mainly due to the wildfire response and higher interest costs.

Details of the revenue and expense forecast changes from Budget 2024 are shown in Chart 1.1 and Table 1.2.

Chart 1.1     2024/25 Deficit – Major Changes from Budget 2024

 

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  5

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.2     2024/25 Financial Forecast Changes

	($ millions)
2024/25 deficit at Budget 2024 (February 22, 2024)		(7,911	)
Revenue1 changes:
Personal income tax – reflecting improved household income and the effects of the federal budget tax measures		480
Corporate income tax – lower prior-year settlement payment, and decrease in advance instalments reflecting a revised federal outlook of 2024 national corporate taxable income		(638	)
Provincial sales tax – slower year-to-date sales activity		(54	)
Property transfer tax – reflecting slightly higher than expected year-to-date sales results		25
Fuel tax – lower sales volume in most fuel types reflecting prior year and year-to-date results		(51	)
Tobacco tax – reflecting lower prior year and year-to-date sales results		(40	)
Employer health tax – reflecting higher prior year results and improved in wages and salaries growth		159
Other taxation sources – mainly reflecting the impacts of the 2023/24 year-end and year-to-date results		96
Natural gas royalties – lower prices and natural gas liquids royalties, partly offset by higher volumes, byproduct prices and decreased utilization of royalty and infrastructure programs and credits		(49	)
Mining – higher coal and copper prices, coal production and the effect of a stronger US dollar, partly offset by higher mine operating and capital costs		12
Electricity sales under the Columbia River Treaty – decrease in anticipated volume resulting from the new Agreement-in-Principle, partly offset by annual cash payment for Flood Risk Management		(126	)
Forests – mainly lower stumpage rates, lumber prices and logging tax		(103	)
Other natural resources – mainly lower water rental revenues		(33	)
Fees, licences, investment earnings and miscellaneous revenue:
Investment earnings – mainly reflecting interest income on higher cash balances		243
Other sources – mainly higher revenue from fees and miscellaneous sources		243
Canada health and social transfers – mainly higher B.C. share of the national population		23
Other federal government transfers – mainly higher recoveries reflecting additional Long Term Care funding and higher transfers to SUCH 2 sector entities		92
Commercial Crown corporation net income - unplanned power outage at Columbia Power project facilities		(32	)
Total revenue changes		247
Less: expense1 increases (decreases):
Consolidated Revenue Fund changes:
Statutory spending:
Fire management costs		653
Other statutory spending		61
Refundable tax credits		9
Other expense changes – mainly higher interest costs		344
Spending funded by third party recoveries		(19	)
Changes in spending profile of service delivery agencies:
School districts		98
Universities		49
Colleges and institutes		47
Health authorities and hospital societies		854
Other service delivery agencies3		(70	)
(Increase) decrease in transfers to service delivery agencies - accounting elimination		(711	)
Total expense changes		1,315
Total changes		(1,068	)
2024/25 deficit at the First Quarterly Report		(8,979	)

¹  Detailed descriptions of changes are provided in the revenue and expense sections of this report. 

²  SUCH: school districts, universities, colleges and institutes, and health organizations. 

³  Includes BC Transportation Financing Authority, BC Transit, BC Housing Management Commission, Community Living BC, and other entities.

6  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Projected taxpayer-supported capital spending in 2024/25 is $13.6 billion, which is $495 million lower than forecast in Budget 2024, due to timing changes for capital projects in the transportation, health and post-secondary sectors. The self-supported capital spending forecast is $4.4 billion, which is $234 million lower than budget mainly due to timing of power generation and transmission projects.

The taxpayer-supported debt at the end of 2024/25 is forecast at $93.3 billion, which is higher by $4.7 billion compared to the Budget 2024 forecast as a result of higher debt balances at the end of fiscal 2023/24. Self-supported debt is forecast to be $35.3 billion, an increase of $636 million since Budget 2024 mainly due to changes in internal financing.

Revenue

Revenue for 2024/25 is forecast to be $81.8 billion — $247 million higher than the projection in Budget 2024. Higher revenue from federal government contributions, fees, investment earnings and miscellaneous sources is partly offset by lower revenue from taxation, natural resources and net income from commercial Crowns. The slight decrease to the taxation revenue forecast is mainly due to lower corporate and consumption tax revenues partly offset by the effects of the First Quarterly economic update, federal budget tax measures, the impacts of final 2023/24 revenue that carry forward and year-to-date results in 2024/25. Corporate income tax revenue includes an updated federal government outlook of national corporate taxable income. Lower natural resource revenue forecast is mainly due to the impacts of lower energy commodity prices.

Chart 1.2    Revenue Changes from Budget 2024

Total revenue increases by $247 million

 

Detailed revenue projections are disclosed in Table 1.7, and key assumptions and sensitivities relating to revenue are provided in Table A1. An analysis on historical volatility of major economic drivers can be found in the 2024 B.C. Financial and Economic Review (pages 17-18). For 2024/25, major changes from the Budget 2024 forecast are discussed starting on page 8.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  7

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.3    Comparison of Major Factors Underlying Revenue            

Calendar Year	First Quarterly Report								Budget 2024
Per cent growth unless otherwise indicated	2023		2024		2025		2026		2023		2024		2025		2026
Real GDP		1.5		1.0		2.0		2.3		1.0		0.8		2.3		2.4
Nominal GDP		3.7		3.5		4.3		4.6		3.2		3.3		4.4		4.5
Household income		7.8		5.9		4.4		4.0		6.9		4.4		4.3		4.1
Wages and salaries		7.2		6.8		4.9		4.2		6.7		5.5		4.9		4.2
Corporations net operating surplus		-15.0		-14.9		-1.5		5.5		-14.9		-9.5		0.8		4.4
Employment		1.6		2.3		1.1		1.1		1.6		0.9		1.5		1.5
Consumer expenditures on durable goods		0.3		1.2		1.7		3.4		1.9		0.8		2.9		4.5
Consumer expenditures on goods and services		5.3		5.3		4.7		4.2		5.3		5.2		4.4		4.4
Business investment		8.8		2.0		6.7		6.4		8.3		1.2		6.7		6.6
Residential investment		1.2		3.5		8.0		7.6		3.3		4.4		6.9		7.8
Retail sales		-0.1		1.0		2.5		3.5		0.8		2.3		3.4		3.8
Consumer Price Index		3.9		2.7		2.2		2.0		3.9		2.7		2.2		2.0
Residential sales value		-11.6		4.5		15.9		9.1		-11.6		12.7		10.2		7.7
B.C. Housing starts		8.1		-7.5		3.8		3.1		8.1		-8.7		2.7		4.7
U.S. Housing starts		-8.5		-3.5		2.2		0.0		-9.0		-4.1		3.3		0.0
SPF 2x4 price ($US/thousand board feet)	$	398	$	390	$	400	$	425	$	398	$	425	$	450	$	450
Exchange rate (US cents/Canadian dollar)		74.1		73.0		73.5		76.3		74.1		73.6		76.8		78.6
Fiscal Year	2023/24		2024/25		2025/26		2026/27		2023/24		2024/25		2025/26		2026/27
Natural gas price ($Cdn/GJ at plant inlet)	$	1.30	$	0.75	$	1.85	$	2.21	$	1.03	$	1.26	$	1.75	$	1.96
Bonus bid average bid price per hectare ($)	$	0	$	200	$	200	$	300	$	0	$	200	$	300	$	300
Electricity price ($US/mega-watt hour, Mid-C)	$	86	$	79	$	88	$	87	$	90	$	93	$	94	$	92
Metallurgical coal price ($US/tonne, fob Australia)	$	282	$	256	$	234	$	233	$	276	$	243	$	220	$	205
Copper price ($US/lb)	$	3.79	$	4.37	$	4.37	$	4.39	$	3.77	$	3.88	$	4.04	$	4.14
Average stumpage rates ($Cdn/cubic metre)	$	17.88	$	15.63	$	17.67	$	19.71	$	18.70	$	18.06	$	19.70	$	21.16
Crown harvest volumes (million cubic metres)		32.1		32.0		32.0		32.0		32.0		32.0		32.0		32.0

Income Tax Revenue

Personal income tax revenue is up $480 million from budget mainly reflecting improved household income and the effects of the federal budget tax measures.

Corporate income tax revenue is down $638 million mainly due to lower advance instalments from the federal government and prior-year settlement payments. The decline in instalments reflects a change in the federal government’s forecast for 2024 national corporate taxable income, which is now expected to increase by 7.8 per cent compared to a higher growth forecast of 14.1 per cent assumed in Budget 2024.

Other Tax Revenue

Provincial sales tax revenue is down $54 million mainly due to lower year-to-date sales results reflecting a lower tax base consistent with lower consumer expenditures on taxable goods.

Property transfer tax revenue is up $25 million mainly due to slightly higher than expected activity in the housing market.

Tobacco tax revenues are down $40 million due to lower year-to-date sales.

Fuel tax revenues are down $51 million due to lower sales volumes in most fuel types reflecting prior year and year-to-date sales results.

8  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Employer health tax revenues are up $159 million due to the impacts of 2023/24 final results and a higher payroll base consistent with improved growth in wages and salaries.

Other taxation revenues are up $96 million due to higher revenue from property and insurance premium taxes reflecting the impacts of 2023/24 results.

Natural Resources Revenue

Natural resource revenues are $299 million lower than budget with declines in most sources.

Revenue from natural gas royalties is down $49 million mainly due to lower prices for natural gas and lower natural gas liquids royalties, partially offset by slightly higher natural gas volumes and by-product prices as well as decreased utilization of royalty and infrastructure program credits. The updated natural gas price forecast is $0.75 ($Cdn/gigajoule, plant inlet), down from the Budget 2024 outlook ($1.26). The price assumption is within the 20th percentile of the private sector forecasters, continuing the prudence incorporated since 2013/14. Natural gas royalty rates are sensitive to prices in the $1.22 to $2.42 range. Hence, the effective royalty rate is generally expected to fall as prices decrease, depending on the take up of royalty program credits. The forecast includes the impacts of an extended transition period for the new royalty system and changes to the existing transition regulation for treatment of oil and gas wells.

Revenue from coal, metals, minerals and other mining-related sources is up $12 million mainly due to improved coal and copper prices, coal production and a stronger US dollar, partly offset by higher operating and capital costs for mines.

Revenue from electricity sales under the Columbia River Treaty is down $126 million reflecting an overall decrease in volume resulting from the new Agreement-in-Principle (AIP) for the Columbia River Treaty, partly offset by a separate annual cash payment for Flood Risk Management included in the AIP. In addition, Mid-C electricity prices, now forecast to be $79.15 US/mega-watt hour, are down 15 per cent from the budget outlook.

Forest revenue is down $103 million mainly due to lower stumpage revenue reflecting regular updates to the market pricing system and lower lumber prices as well as lower logging tax revenue. Total stumpage rates, now forecast to be $15.63 Cdn/cubic metre, are down 13 per cent from the budget.

Revenue from other natural resources is down $33 million mainly due to decreased water rentals collected under the Water Sustainability Act reflecting reduced inflows to reservoirs due to near record low snowpack and drought conditions.

Other Taxpayer-Supported Revenue

Other taxpayer-supported revenue consists of revenue from fees, licences, investment earnings and miscellaneous sources. These revenue sources are now expected to total $11.9 billion, up $486 million from budget.

The updated forecast for fee revenues totals $5.5 billion, up $33 million. The revised forecast for investment earnings is $1.7 billion, up $243 million from budget mainly due to higher interest income on higher cash balances.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  9

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

The miscellaneous revenue outlook of $4.7 billion is up $210 million from budget mainly due to increased projections from taxpayer-supported SUCH sector entities.

Federal Government Transfers

Federal government contributions are expected to be $14.6 billion, up $115 million from budget.

Canada health and social transfers have increased by $23 million, mainly due to an improved B.C. share of the national population.

Other federal government contributions are up $92 million mainly due to higher recoveries related to additional Long Term Care funding and increased transfers to SUCH sector entities.

Commercial Crown Net Incomes

Net income reported by government business enterprises (commercial Crown corporations) is down $32 million due mainly to unplanned outages for the Columbia Power project facilities at Arrow Lake generating station. There are no changes from budget to forecast net income for BC Hydro, Liquor Distribution Branch, BC Lottery Corporation, or the Insurance Corporation of BC.

Expense

The First Quarterly Report expense forecast for 2024/25 is $1.3 billion higher than Budget 2024 mainly due to higher spending for wildfire response and increased debt servicing costs.

Chart 1.3 Expense Changes from Budget 2024

Total expense increases by $1.3 billion

 

*Net agency spending reflects changes to total spending of SUCH sector and other agencies, net of changes to provincial funding. For details, see table 1.2

10  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF) Spending

Statutory spending is projected at $723 million in 2024/25 and includes the following:

· $653 million for fire management costs — this is in addition to the $233 million in the fire management voted appropriation, for a total spending forecast of $886 million;

· $50 million to fund an increased number of agriculture claims under the Production Insurance special account; and

· $20 million in other statutory spending.

Other changes in CRF spending include a $344 million increase in debt servicing costs due to higher opening debt level, higher interest rates and accelerated timing of in-year borrowing.

Contingencies

Budget 2024 includes a Contingencies Vote allocation of $3.9 billion in 2024/25, with $3.5 billion allocated to General Programs and Climate & Emergency Response and nearly $400 million for CleanBC initiatives. The Contingencies Vote helps fund unexpected costs that are difficult to forecast such as flood recovery, wage mandate, increased demands for government services, and emerging priorities. The forecast for these allocations remain unchanged in the First Quarterly Report.

Spending Recovered from External Parties

Expenses funded by external parties are forecast to decrease by $19 million mainly due to lower recoveries from the natural resources sector and lower interest expenses recovered from commercial Crown corporations. This is partly offset by an additional $76 million in health funding received from the federal government.

The recovered spending changes are offset by an equal change in revenue and as a result have no net impact on government's financial results.

Operating Transfers to Service Delivery Agencies

Operating transfers to service delivery agencies are forecast to be $711 million higher than Budget 2024 mainly due to higher grants to health organizations ($571 million) and the education sector ($170 million), partly offset by net decrease in grants to various other service delivery agencies ($30 million).

Operating transfers provided to service delivery agencies are eliminated on consolidation, for accounting purposes. These funding increases are related to spending forecast changes noted below.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  11

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Service Delivery Agency Spending

Service delivery agency expenses are forecast to increase by $978 million in 2024/25 compared to Budget 2024.

· School district expense forecasts are higher by $98 million mainly to reflect salary increases under the Shared Recovery Mandate and higher operating costs.

· Post-secondary sector expenses are forecast to increase by $96 million mainly due to salary increases under the Shared Recovery Mandate.

· The health authority and hospital society expense forecast is $854 million higher than Budget 2024, mainly due to higher salary and operating costs.

· Other service delivery agency spending is forecast to decrease by $70 million since budget mainly due to lower amortization and interest expenses by the BC Transportation Financing Authority to reflect a revised schedule for capital projects. This is partly offset by various updates across a number of other agencies.

Higher service delivery agency spending is funded primarily by increased operating transfers provided by government as noted above.

Detailed expense projections are disclosed in Table 1.8. Key spending assumptions and sensitivities are provided in the appendix Table A3.

Full-Time Equivalents for the BC Public Service

The forecast of full-time equivalent (FTE) staff utilization for 2024/25 is 38,900, which is an increase of 1,600 FTEs since budget. Additional hiring in 2024/25 is to support the continued response to wildfires. The growth is also related to implementation of key expanded government priorities (rural resource permitting, safety and justice services), and in response to increased demand for government services such as child care and children and youth supports.

Provincial Capital Spending

Capital spending is projected to total $18.0 billion in 2024/25 — $729 million lower than the forecast in Budget 2024 (see Tables 1.4 and 1.10).

Table 1.4 2024/25 Capital Spending Update
	($ millions)
Taxpayer-supported capital spending at Budget 2024		14,104
Changes:
Higher school district spending		38
Timing of post-secondary institution spending		(145	)
Timing of health authority spending		(144	)
Timing of transportation sector spending		(328	)
Higher social housing spending		35
Other net adjustments to capital schedules		49
Total taxpayer-supported changes		(495	)
Taxpayer-supported capital spending - updated forecast		13,609
Self-supported capital spending at Budget 2024		4,652
Timing of BC Hydro spending		(233	)
Timing of other spending		(1	)
Total self-supported changes		(234	)
Self-supported capital spending - updated forecast		4,418
2024/25 provincial capital spending at the First Quarterly Report		18,027

12  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Taxpayer-supported capital spending is projected at $13.6 billion. The $495 million decrease since Budget 2024 is primarily due to timing changes in capital spending on transportation, health and post-secondary projects. This is partially offset by timing changes in capital spending on K-12 and social housing projects.

At $4.4 billion, self-supported capital spending is $234 million lower than Budget 2024 primarily due to changes in the timing of BC Hydro expenditures.

Projects Over $50 million

Capital spending on projects greater than $50 million is presented in Table 1.11.

Since Budget 2024, the following projects have been added to the table:

· Cameron Elementary School ($68 million);

· Henry Hudson Elementary School ($60 million);

· Fleetwood Park Secondary School ($79 million);

· John Diefenbaker Elementary School ($53 million);

· Mission Secondary School ($176 million);

· Montgomery Middle School ($87 million);

· Olympic Village Elementary School ($151 million);

· Pitt Meadows Secondary School ($144 million);

· Smith Middle and Secondary Schools ($306 million);

· Camosun College - Student Housing ($155 million);

· Capilano University – Squamish Student Housing ($55 million);

· Okanagan College – Centre for Food, Wine and Tourism ($56 million);

· Simon Fraser University – Digital Research Infrastructure Refresh - CEDAR ($82 million);

· Simon Fraser University – Student Housing Phase 3 ($188 million);

· The University of British Columbia – Student Housing - Lower Mall Precinct ($560 million);

· Chilliwack Long-Term Care ($274 million);

· Cottonwoods Long-Term Care Replacement ($187 million);

· Immunization BC Digital Platform ($75 million);

· Kamloops Cancer Centre ($359 million);

· Nanaimo Cancer Centre ($289 million);

· Squamish (Hilltop) Long-Term Care ($286 million);

· Surrey Memorial Hospital – Hemodialysis Renal Centre ($85 million);

· Surrey Memorial Hospital – Interventional Cardiology and Interventional Radiology ($97 million);

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  13

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

· University Hospital of Northern BC Redevelopment Phase 2 — Acute Care Tower ($1.579 billion);

· Highway 1 Bus on Shoulder McKenzie to Colwood Interchange ($95 million);

· Highway 1 Fraser Valley Corridor Improvements Mount Lehman Road to Highway 11 ($2.651 billion);

· 1410 E King Edward Ave housing project ($79 million);

· 1451 Bertram St housing project ($120 million);

· 2086-2098 W 7th Ave housing project ($108 million);

· 300 Angela Drive housing project ($204 million);

· 926 & 930 Pandora Ave housing project ($140 million);

· Connect the Basin – high-speed internet infrastructure in the Columbia Basin region ($76 million);

· BC Hydro – Bridge River 1 - penstock concrete foundation refurbishment project ($72 million);

· BC Hydro – Fleetwood - Distribution load interconnection (SLS Servicing) project ($158 million);

· BC Hydro – Long Lake terminal station - transmission load interconnection project ($80 million);

· BC Hydro – Northwest - substations outage mitigation project ($89 million); and

· BC Hydro – Minette - transmission load interconnection project ($72 million).

Since Budget 2024, the Highway 1 Illecillewaet Four-Laning and Brake Check Improvements project was completed and is no longer listed in the table.

Changes since Budget 2024 for existing projects include:

· Cowichan Secondary project's year of completion was amended from 2024 to 2025 to align with revised project schedule;

· Grandview Heights Secondary project's anticipated total cost decreased from $83 million to $79 million to reflect final project cost. Internal borrowing decreased from $63 million to $59 million;

· British Columbia Institute of Technology – Trades and Technology Complex project's anticipated total cost increased from $178 million to $218 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $152 million to $186 million and contributions from other sources increased from $26 million to $32 million;

· Capilano University – Student Housing project's year of completion was amended from 2024 to 2025 to align with revised project schedule;

· Douglas College – Academic and Student Housing project's anticipated total cost increased from $293 million to $332 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $203 million to $232 million and contributions from other sources increased from $90 million to $100 million;

· Royal Roads University – West Shore Learning Centre project's anticipated total cost increased from $106 million to $112 million to reflect revised project cost. Contributions from other sources increased from $26 million to $32 million;

14  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

· Simon Fraser University – Student Housing project's anticipated total cost increased from $111 million to $116 million to reflect final project cost. Other contributions increased from $38 million to $43 million;

· University of Victoria – Student Housing project's anticipated total cost increased from $241 million to $243 million to reflect final project cost. Contributions from other sources increased from $113 million to $115 million;

· The University of British Columbia – The Gateway Building project's year of completion was amended from 2024 to 2025 to align with revised project schedule;

· Vancouver Community College – Centre for Clean Energy & Automotive Innovation project's anticipated total cost increased from $291 million to $315 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $271 million to $295 million;

· Vancouver Island University – Student Housing project's anticipated total cost increased from $88 million to $107 million. Internal borrowing increased from $87 million to $106 million. Project's year of completion was amended from 2026 to 2027 to align with revised project schedule;

· Burnaby Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1 project's anticipated total cost increased from $683 million to $717 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $633 million to $667 million;

· Centre for Children and Youth Living with Health Complexity project's anticipated total cost increased from $267 million to $310 million to reflect the updated post-tender budget. Other contributions increased from $43 million to $86 million;

· Clinical and Systems Transformation project's anticipated total cost increased from $799 million to $803 million to reflect revised project cost. Other contributions increased from $97 million to $101 million;

· Lions Gate Hospital – New Acute Care Facility project's anticipated total cost increased from $310 million to $326 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $144 million to $160 million;

· Royal Inland Hospital Phil and Jennie Gaglardi Tower project's anticipated total cost increased from $417 million to $457 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $39 million to $79 million;

· Richmond Hospital Redevelopment project's anticipated total cost increased from $861 million to $1.959 billion to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $791 million to $1.889 billion. Project's year of completion was amended from 2031 to 2033 to align with revised project schedule;

· University Hospital of Northern BC Redevelopment Phase 1 – Site Preparation project's year of completion was amended from 2025 to 2026 to align with revised project schedule;

· Highway 1 Corridor – Nicomen Bridge project's internal borrowing decreased from $144 million to $109 million to reflect federal contribution of $35 million;

· Highway 5 Corridor project's internal borrowing decreased from $350 million to $141 million to reflect federal contribution of $209 million;

· Highway 99 10-Mile Slide project's anticipated total cost increased from $84 million to $88 million to reflect final project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $84 million to $88 million;

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  15

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

· Kootenay Lake ferry service upgrade project's anticipated total cost increased from $85 million to $117 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $68 million to $100 million. Project's year of completion was amended from 2025 to 2026 to align with revised project schedule;

· Surrey Langley SkyTrain project's anticipated total cost increased from $4.010 billion to $5.996 billion to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $2.476 billion to $4.441 billion. Other contributions increased from $228 million to $249 million. Project's year of completion was amended from 2028 to 2029 to align with revised project schedule;

· Highway 4 Kennedy Hill Safety Improvements project's anticipated total cost increased from $54 million to $67 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $40 million to $53 million;

· Highway 1 216th St. to 264th St. widening project's internal borrowing increased from $226 million to $249 million to account for the replacement of previously committed funding from the Township of Langley;

· Highway 1 Corridor – Falls Creek project's internal borrowing decreased from $143 million to $82 million to reflect federal contribution of $61 million;

· Highway 1 Corridor – Nicomen Bridge project's internal borrowing decreased from $144 million to $109 million to reflect federal contribution of $35 million;

· Cottonwood Hill at Highway 97 Slide project’s internal borrowing decreased from $335 million to $330 million to reflect federal contribution of $5 million;

· Highway 1 R.W. Bruhn Bridge project’s anticipated total cost increased from $255 million to $260 million to align with the post-tender final budget. Internal borrowing increased from $164 million to $169 million;

· Broadway Subway project’s year of completion was amended from 2026 to 2027 to align with revised project schedule. Public private partnerships (P3) liability of $450 million was reclassified to internal borrowing to reflect the adoption of the new Public Sector Accounting Standards for P3;

· Pattullo Bridge Replacement project’s year of completion was amended from 2024 to 2025 to align with revised project schedule. Public private partnerships (P3) liability of $301 million was reclassified to internal borrowing to reflect the adoption of the new Public Sector Accounting Standards for P3;

· West Fraser Road Realignment project’s internal borrowing decreased from $94 million to $82 million to reflect federal contribution of $12 million;

· Pattullo Bridge Replacement and Broadway Subway projects – design-build-finance arrangements reclassified from P3 liability to internal borrowing to reflect the adoption of the new Public Sector Accounting Standards for public private partnerships (P3);

· BC Hydro – Street light replacement program’s anticipated total cost was reduced from $63 million to $60 million as the program contingency was not required;

· BC Hydro – Various Sites - NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection implementation project for cyber assets anticipated total cost increased from $56 million to $58 million due to further improvements to physical security measures and increased development Costs;

16  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

· BC Hydro – Lake Buntzen 1 Coquitlam tunnel gates refurbishment project’s anticipated total cost increased from $67 million to $74 million to reflect additional costs identified through the implementation phase;

· BC Hydro – Capilano substation upgrade project’s anticipated total cost decreased from $87 million to $79 million as the contingency was not required;

· BC Hydro – Ruskin - left abutment slope sinkhole remediation project’s year of completion was amended from 2025 to 2026 due to remediation design changes and additional scope to address underground void discovered during construction;

· BC Hydro – Treaty Creek Terminal - transmission load interconnection (KSM) project’s anticipated total cost increased from $109 million to $168 million due to higher construction and material costs and customer driven schedule delays. Project’s year of completion was amended from 2027 to 2028 due to customer driven schedule delays;

· BC Hydro – Burrard switchyard - control building upgrade project’s year of completion was amended from 2026 to 2029 to manage reactive power needs on BC Hydro’s transmission system, in connection with the Lower Mainland Reactive Power Reinforcement projects;

· BC Hydro – John Hart dam seismic upgrade project’s anticipated total cost decreased from $913 million to $912 million to reflect revised project cost; and

· ICBC – Head Office Relocation project’s anticipated total cost decreased from $164 million to $162 million to reflect revised estimate for the leasehold improvements.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  17

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Provincial Debt

The provincial debt is projected to total $128.6 billion by the end of the fiscal year — $5.3 billion higher than the forecast in Budget 2024, primarily due to a higher debt balance from fiscal 2023/24 and higher operating deficit for 2024/25.

Table 1.5    2024/25 Provincial Debt Update 1
	($ millions)
Taxpayer-supported debt forecast at Budget 2024		88,639
Changes:
Higher debt level from 2023/24		3,539
Changes in operating results		1,068
Non-cash items		78
Changes in cash balances 2		(1,919	)
Changes in other working capital balances 3		2,436
Taxpayer-supported capital spending		(495	)
Total taxpayer-supported changes		4,707
Taxpayer-supported debt – updated forecast		93,346
Self-supported debt forecast at Budget 2024		34,628
Changes:
Higher debt level from 2023/24		140
Lower capital spending		(234	)
Changes in internal financing		730
Total self-supported changes		636
Self-supported debt – updated forecast		35,264
2024/25 provincial debt forecast at the First Quarterly Report		128,610

1	Provincial debt is prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and presented consistent with the Debt Summary Report included in the Public Accounts. Debt is shown net of sinking funds and unamortized discounts, excludes accrued interest, and includes non-guaranteed debt directly incurred by commercial Crown corporations and debt guaranteed by the Province.
2	Reflects changes in cash balances at April 1, 2024 and includes all cash balances from the Consolidated Revenue Fund, School Districts, Universities, Colleges, Health Authorities, Hospital Societies and other taxpayer-supported agencies.
3	Changes in other working capital balances include changes in accounts receivables, accounts payable, accrued liabilities, deferred revenue, investments, restricted assets and other assets.

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to be $93.3 billion at the end of 2024/25, $4.7 billion higher than forecast in Budget 2024. This increase reflects a higher opening balance of $3.5 billion, higher operating deficit of $1.1 billion, and changes in cash and other working capital balances of $0.6 billion, partly offset by lower capital spending of $0.5 billion.

The taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to end 2024/25 at 22.0 per cent, 1.0 percentage point higher than forecast in Budget 2024. The taxpayer-supported debt-to-revenue ratio is forecast to end the fiscal year at 117.1 per cent, 5.3 percentage points higher than forecast at budget.

Self-supported debt is forecast to be $35.3 billion at the end of 2024/25, $636 million higher than the forecast in Budget 2024, mainly due to a higher opening balance and changes in internal financing.

18  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Chart 1.4     Debt Affordability

Interest bite for Taxpayer-Supported Debt
(cents per dollar of revenue) ¹

¹ The ratio of interest costs (less sinking fund interest) to revenue. Figures include capitalized interest expense in order to provide a more comparable measure to outstanding debt.

While the Province’s debt level is expected to increase by $21.1 billion over the year, the B.C. government is able to borrow at relatively low interest rates, with debt affordability remaining at levels that are lower than they have been historically. The Province’s taxpayer-supported interest bite is 4.2 cents per dollar of revenue. In addition, the Province continues to have one of the lowest debt affordability metrics relative to other Canadian provinces.

Chart 1.5     Debt Affordability Among Provinces

 

* Figures for 2023/24 were sourced from each jurisdiction’s Public Accounts or Budget document (if Public Accounts is not available). 2024/25 forecast figures were sourced from each jurisdiction’s Budget or Quarterly update published from February 2024 through September 2024.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  19

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Details on provincial debt are shown in Table 1.12.

Total provincial debt is presented consistent with the Debt Summary Report included in the Public Accounts. Debt is shown net of sinking fund investments and unamortized discounts, excludes accrued interest, and includes non-guaranteed debt directly incurred by commercial Crown corporations and debt guaranteed by the Province.

A reconciliation between provincial debt and the financial statement debt is shown in Table 1.13.

Risks to the Fiscal Forecast

The major risks to the updated economic and fiscal forecasts include persistent price pressures leading to higher than anticipated interest rates for longer and weaker global demand. Other risks include climate change impacts, housing affordability, and volatility in commodity markets.

Personal and corporate income tax revenues take over a year to finalize. This data lag may cause more volatility in revenue projections. Property transfer tax and provincial sales tax revenues are impacted by the number of residential transactions, average home sale prices and the amount of taxable purchases of goods and services. Natural resource revenues are affected by international commodity prices, and the health of B.C.’s major trading partners.

The spending forecast contained in the fiscal plan is based on ministry and service delivery agency plans. Risks include changes in planning assumptions such as demand for government services in the health care, education, and community social services sectors, as well as costs associated with fighting forest fires and responding to other natural disasters.

Capital spending may be influenced by several factors including design development, procurement activity, labour shortages, ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, weather, geotechnical conditions and interest rates.

As a result of these uncertainties, the actual operating result, capital spending, and debt levels may differ from the current forecast. Government will continue to update the fiscal outlook throughout the year in the second and third quarterly reports.

The potential fiscal impacts from these risks may be partly offset by assuming lower growth assumptions than the private sector for B.C.’s major trading partners and the $3.9 billion contingencies vote allocation.

20  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Supplementary Schedules

The following tables provide the financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2024 and the 2024/25 full-year forecast.

Table 1.6    2024/25 Operating Statement
	Year-to-Date to June 30								Full Year
	2024/25						Actual		2024/25						Actual
($ millions)	Budget		Actual		Variance		2023/24 1		Budget		Forecast		Variance		2023/24
Revenue	20,755		21,077		322		20,760		81,523		81,770		247		79,623
Expense	(20,781	)	(20,900	)	(119	)	(18,405	)	(89,434	)	(90,749	)	(1,315	)	(84,658	)
Surplus (deficit)	(26	)	177		203		2,355		(7,911	)	(8,979	)	(1,068	)	(5,035	)
Accumulated surplus (deficit) beginning of the year before remeasurement gains (losses)	(3,175	)	(1,213	)	1,962		3,822		(3,175	)	(1,213	)	1,962		3,822
Accumulated surplus (deficit) before remeasurement gains (losses)	(3,201	)	(1,036	)	2,165		6,177		(11,086	)	(10,192	)	894		(1,213	)
Effect of remeasurement gains (losses)	(36	)	(721	)	(685	)	(454	)	(36	)	(408	)	(372	)	(408	)
Accumulated surplus (deficit) end of period	(3,237	)	(1,757	)	1,480		5,723		(11,122	)	(10,600	)	522		(1,621	)

¹ Restated to reflect government's current accounting policies.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  21

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.7    2024/25 Revenue by Source
	Year-to-Date to June 30											Full Year
	2024/25								Actual			2024/25							Actual
($ millions)	Budget			Actual		Variance			2023/24 1			Budget		Forecast		Variance			2023/24
Taxation
Personal income		4,105			4,100		(5	)		3,942			16,638		17,118		480			16,443
Corporate income		3,395			3,395		-			3,533			8,236		7,598		(638	)		6,085
Employer health		698			782		84			679			2,803		2,962		159			2,886
Sales 2		2,749			2,751		2			2,709			10,762		10,708		(54	)		10,330
Fuel		260			242		(18	)		239			1,020		969		(51	)		982
Carbon		644			613		(31	)		708			2,565		2,565		-			2,642
Tobacco		130			113		(17	)		123			510		470		(40	)		477
Property		934			943		9			861			3,779		3,850		71			3,605
Property transfer		537			611		74			555			2,055		2,080		25			1,993
Insurance premium and other		208			222		14			194			846		871		25			853
		13,660			13,772		112			13,543			49,214		49,191		(23	)		46,296
Natural resource
Natural gas royalties		172			133		(39	)		193			754		705		(49	)		823
Forests		111			114		3			149			689		586		(103	)		657
Other natural resource revenues 3		389			351		(38	)		482			1,707		1,560		(147	)		1,663
		672			598		(74	)		824			3,150		2,851		(299	)		3,143
Other revenue
Post-secondary education fees		499			538		39			483			2,937		2,914		(23	)		2,840
Other Fees and licenses 4		584			650		66			622			2,531		2,587		56			2,427
Investment earnings		383			455		72			415			1,424		1,667		243			1,718
Miscellaneous 5		1,051			1,297		246			1,090			4,508		4,718		210			4,988
		2,517			2,940		423			2,610			11,400		11,886		486			11,973
Contributions from the federal government
Health and social transfers		2,369			2,369		-			2,516			9,475		9,498		23			9,390
Other federal government contributions 6		881			496		(385	)		531			4,971		5,063		92			4,344
		3,250			2,865		(385	)		3,047			14,446		14,561		115			13,734
Commercial Crown corporation net income
BC Hydro		68			45		(23	)		(4	)		712		712		-			323
Liquor Distribution Branch		287			288		1			304			1,090		1,090		-			1,148
BC Lottery Corporation 7		260			268		8			292			1,323		1,323		-			1,429
ICBC		(9	)		258		267			95			-		-		-			1,399
Other 8		50			43		(7	)		49			188		156		(32	)		178
		656			902		246			736			3,313		3,281		(32	)		4,477
Total revenue		20,755			21,077		322			20,760			81,523		81,770		247			79,623

1	Restated to reflect government's current accounting policies.
2	Includes provincial sales tax and HST/PST housing transition tax related to prior years.
3	Columbia River Treaty, other energy and minerals, water rental and other resources.
4	Healthcare-related, motor vehicle, and other fees.
5	Includes reimbursements for health care and other services provided to external agencies, and other recoveries.
6	Includes contributions for health, education, community development, housing and social service programs, and transportation projects.
7	Net of payments to the federal government and payments to the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership in accordance with section 14.3 of the Gaming Control Act (B.C.).
8	Includes Columbia Power Corporation, BC Railway Company, Columbia Basin power projects, and post-secondary institutions' self-supported subsidiaries.

22  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.8    2024/25 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency

	Year-to-Date to June 30												Full Year
	2024/25									Actual			2024/25									Actual
($ millions)	Budget			Actual			Variance			2023/24 1			Budget			Forecast			Variance			2023/24
Office of the Premier		4			5			1			4			17			17			-			16
Agriculture and Food		21			59			38			25			130			180			50			259
Attorney General		213			253			40			219			877			877			-			1,069
Children and Family Development		607			589			(18	)		451			2,121			2,121			-			2,152
Citizens' Services		185			196			11			191			705			705			-			733
Education and Child Care		2,727			2,893			166			2,587			9,615			9,615			-			9,172
Emergency Management and Climate Readiness		24			31			7			27			116			116			-			593
Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation		22			22			-			18			141			152			11			358
Environment and Climate Change Strategy		63			83			20			66			244			244			-			785
Finance		358			269			(89	)		472			1,670			1,670			-			3,153
Forests		196			268			72			266			851			1,504			653			1,750
Health		7,901			7,706			(195	)		6,464			32,857			32,857			-			30,504
Housing		264			259			(5	)		214			1,046			1,046			-			915
Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation		39			51			12			38			160			160			-			361
Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation		29			58			29			34			116			116			-			209
Labour		6			8			2			9			25			25			-			46
Mental Health and Addictions		16			5			(11	)		4			41			41			-			88
Municipal Affairs		197			197			-			175			288			288			-			310
Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills		897			898			1			755			3,371			3,371			-			3,321
Public Safety and Solicitor General		265			278			13			243			1,084			1,084			-			1,089
Social Development and Poverty Reduction		1,312			1,391			79			1,162			5,176			5,176			-			4,745
Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport		49			50			1			55			187			187			-			252
Transportation and Infrastructure		281			278			(3	)		240			1,136			1,136			-			1,074
Water, Land and Resource Stewardship		48			74			26			61			214			214			-			440
Total ministries and Office of the Premier		15,724			15,921			197			13,780			62,188			62,902			714			63,394
Management of public funds and debt		486			545			59			346			1,976			2,320			344			1,588
Contingencies - General programs, CleanBC and Climate & Emergency Response		-			-			-			-			3,885			3,885			-			11
Funding for capital expenditures		628			508			(120	)		382			6,665			6,152			(513	)		3,551
Refundable tax credit transfers		775			775			-			664			3,492			3,501			9			2,885
Legislative Assembly and other appropriations		60			52			(8	)		46			313			313			-			215
Total appropriations		17,673			17,801			128			15,218			78,519			79,073			554			71,644
Elimination of transactions between appropriations 2		-			-			-			(8	)		(32	)		(32	)		-			(32	)
Prior year liability adjustments		-			-			-			-			-			-			-			(75	)
Consolidated revenue fund expense		17,673			17,801			128			15,210			78,487			79,041			554			71,537
Expenses recovered from external entities		1,111			768			(343	)		879			5,841			5,822			(19	)		5,819
Elimination of funding provided to service delivery agencies		(11,200	)		(10,502	)		698			(9,133	)		(48,863	)		(49,061	)		(198	)		(44,172	)
Total direct program spending		7,584			8,067			483			6,956			35,465			35,802			337			33,184
Service delivery agency expense
School districts		2,643			2,675			32			2,460			9,111			9,209			98			8,659
Universities		1,583			1,640			57			1,493			6,906			6,955			49			6,630
Colleges and institutes		439			461			22			385			1,816			1,863			47			1,792
Health authorities and hospital societies		6,515			6,262			(253	)		5,379			26,639			27,493			854			26,272
Other service delivery agencies		2,017			1,795			(222	)		1,732			9,497			9,427			(70	)		8,121
Total service delivery agency expense		13,197			12,833			(364	)		11,449			53,969			54,947			978			51,474
Total expense		20,781			20,900			119			18,405			89,434			90,749			1,315			84,658

¹   Restated to reflect government's current organization and accounting policies.

²   Reflects payments made under an agreement where an expense from a voted appropriation is recorded as revenue by a special account.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  23

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.9    2024/25 Expense by Function

	Year-to-Date to June 30									Full Year
	2024/25							Actual		2024/25							Actual
($ millions)	Budget		Actual		Variance			2023/24 1		Budget		Forecast		Variance			2023/24
Health 2		8,741		8,625		(116	)		7,217		35,944		36,622		678			34,863
Education 3		5,025		5,103		78			4,686		19,479		19,172		(307	)		18,479
Social services		2,570		2,525		(45	)		2,061		10,473		10,458		(15	)		9,284
Protection of persons and property		605		655		50			558		2,557		2,556		(1	)		3,101
Transportation		634		603		(31	)		618		2,775		2,738		(37	)		2,379
Natural resources and economic development		805		1,048		243			950		4,441		5,171		730			6,704
Other		947		844		(103	)		1,009		3,707		3,707		-			4,215
Contingencies - General programs, CleanBC and Climate & Emergency Response 4		-		-		-			-		3,885		3,885		-			-
General government		514		533		19			527		2,068		2,067		(1	)		2,341
Debt servicing		940		964		24			779		4,105		4,373		268			3,292
Total expense		20,781		20,900		119			18,405		89,434		90,749		1,315			84,658

¹  Figures have been restated to reflect government's current accounting policies.

²  Payments for healthcare services by the Ministry of Social Development and Poverty Reduction and the Ministry of Children and Family Development made on behalf of their clients are reported in the Health function.

³  Payments for training costs by the Ministry of Social Development and Poverty Reduction made on behalf of its clients are reported in the Education function.

⁴  Contingencies for the prior fiscal year are reported in the relevant functions; the current year forecast is not yet allocated to functions.

24  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.10    2024/25 Capital Spending

	Year-to-Date to June 30									Full Year
	2024/25							Actual		2024/25							Actual
($ millions)	Budget		Actual		Variance			2023/24		Budget		Forecast		Variance			2023/24
Taxpayer-supported
Education
School districts		249		295		46			184		1,183		1,221		38			874
Post-secondary institutions		393		292		(101	)		219		2,200		2,055		(145	)		1,227
Health		286		231		(55	)		195		4,397		4,253		(144	)		2,998
BC Transportation Financing Authority		703		720		17			392		4,060		3,959		(101	)		2,263
BC Transit		72		18		(54	)		22		516		289		(227	)		158
Government ministries		128		106		(22	)		97		707		704		(3	)		537
Social housing 1		321		131		(190	)		232		811		846		35			587
Other		34		36		2			19		230		282		52			128
Total taxpayer-supported		2,186		1,829		(357	)		1,360		14,104		13,609		(495	)		8,772
Self-supported
BC Hydro		1,160		1,018		(142	)		1,099		4,430		4,197		(233	)		4,263
Columbia Basin power projects 2		4		4		0			5		14		15		1			8
BC Railway Company		1		2		1			1		5		6		1			4
ICBC		17		11		(6	)		8		69		66		(3	)		64
BC Lottery Corporation 3		28		7		(21	)		6		100		100		-			84
Liquor Distribution Branch		8		5		(3	)		2		34		34		-			18
Other 4		-		-		-			-		-		-		-			143
Total self-supported		1,218		1,047		(171	)		1,121		4,652		4,418		(234	)		4,584
Total capital spending		3,404		2,876		(528	)		2,481		18,756		18,027		(729	)		13,356

¹  Includes BC Housing Management Commission (BCHMC) and Provincial Rental Housing Corporation which is now a subsidiary of BCHMC.

²  Joint ventures of the Columbia Power Corporation and Columbia Basin Trust.

³  Excludes right-of-use assets except for 2023/24 full year actual.

⁴  Includes post-secondary institutions' self-supported subsidiaries.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million¹ 

Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from Budget 2024 released on February 22, 2024

		Project		Estimated		Anticipated		Project Financing
	Year of	Cost to		Cost to		Total		Internal/		P3		Federal		Other
($ millions)	Completion	Jun. 30, 2024		Complete		Cost		Borrowing		Liability		Gov't		Contrib'ns
Schools
Centennial Secondary 2	2017		59		2		61		61		-		-		-
Grandview Heights Secondary 2	2021		79		-		79		59		-		-		20
New Westminster Secondary 2	2021		95		12		107		107		-		-		-
Handsworth Secondary 2	2022		68		1		69		69		-		-		-
Pexsisen Elementary and Centre Mountain Lellum Middle2	2022		89		-		89		89		-		-		-
Quesnel Junior School 2	2022		47		5		52		52		-		-		-
Stitó:s Lá:lém totí:lt Elementary Middle School 2	2022		52		2		54		49		-		-		5
Coast Salish Elementary 2,3	2023		26		17		43		38		-		-		5
Burnaby North Secondary 2	2024		108		-		108		99		-		-		9
Eric Hamber Secondary	2024		88		18		106		94		-		-		12
Victoria High School 2	2024		98		2		100		97		-		-		3
Cedar Hill Middle	2025		13		41		54		50		-		-		4
Cowichan Secondary	2025		70		16		86		84		-		-		2
Henry Hudson Elementary	2025		22		38		60		49		-		-		11
North East Latimer Elementary	2025		6		46		52		52		-		-		-
Burke Mountain Secondary	2026		32		128		160		135		-		-		25
Carson Elementary	2026		5		56		61		61		-		-		-
New East Side Elementary	2026		1		58		59		59		-		-		-
New Cloverley Elementary	2026		2		62		64		61		-		-		3
Snine Elementary (formerly Pineview Valley Elementary)	2026		4		61		65		65		-		-		-
George Pringle Secondary (formerly Westside Secondary)	2027		15		109		124		121		-		-		3
La Vallee (Pemberton) Elementary	2027		1		65		66		66		-		-		-
Prince Rupert Middle	2027		2		125		127		127		-		-		-
Smith Middle and Secondary	2027		-		306		306		306		-		-		-
Cameron Elementary	2028		-		68		68		68		-		-		-
Fleetwood Park Secondary	2028		-		79		79		79		-		-		-
Guildford Park Secondary	2028		1		64		65		60		-		-		5
John Diefenbaker Elementary	2028		-		53		53		53		-		-		-
Mission Secondary	2028		-		176		176		175		-		-		1
Montgomery Middle	2028		-		87		87		87		-		-		-
Pitt Meadows Secondary	2028		-		144		144		144		-		-		-
Tamanawis Secondary	2028		1		56		57		52		-		-		5
Olympic Village Elementary	2029		-		151		151		151		-		-		-
Seismic mitigation program 4	2030		1,673		353		2,026		2,026		-		-		-
Total schools			2,657		2,401		5,058		4,945		-		-		113
Post-secondary institutions											-		-		-
Simon Fraser University – Student Housing 2	2023		114		2		116		73		-		-		43
University of Victoria – Student Housing 2	2023		242		1		243		128		-		-		115
Okanagan College – Student Housing	2024		55		20		75		74		-		-		1
The University of British Columbia											-		-		-
–Brock Commons Phase 2- Student Housing	2024		153		12		165		2		-		-		163
– Recreation Centre North	2024		43		25		68		-		-		-		68
British Columbia Institute of Technology – Student Housing	2025		79		63		142		129		-		-		13
Capilano University – Student Housing	2025		15		43		58		41		-		-		17
North Island College – Student Housing	2025		24		54		78		76		-		-		2
Royal Roads University – West Shore Learning Centre	2025		62		50		112		80		-		-		32
Simon Fraser University
– Digital Research Infrastructure Refresh - CEDAR	2025		-		82		82		25		-		41		16

Post-secondary institutions projects are continued on the next page

26  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million¹ 

Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from Budget 2024 released on February 22, 2024

		Project		Estimated		Anticipated		Project Financing
	Year of	Cost to		Cost to		Total		Internal/		P3		Federal		Other
($ millions)	Completion	Jun. 30, 2024		Complete		Cost		Borrowing		Liability		Gov't		Contrib'ns
Post-secondary institutions projects continued
The University of British Columbia
– School of Biomedical Engineering	2025		86		53		139		25		-		-		114
– The Gateway Building	2025		104		91		195		-		-		-		195
University of the Fraser Valley – Student Housing	2025		15		90		105		88		-		-		17
Capilano University – Squamish Student Housing	2026		43		12		55		48		-		-		7
Okanagan College – Centre for Food, Wine and Tourism	2026		1		55		56		52		-		-		4
The University of British Columbia
– x̌əl sic snpax̌ nwixʷtn - UBCO	2026		21		98		119		-		-		-		119
University of Victoria
– Engineering and Computer Science Building Expansion	2026		14		136		150		97		-		-		53
British Columbia Institute of Technology
– Trades and Technology Complex	2027		6		212		218		186		-		-		32
Camosun College - Student Housing	2027		-		155		155		152		-		-		3
Douglas College – Academic and Student Housing	2027		18		314		332		232		-		-		100
Simon Fraser University – Student Housing Phase 3	2027		-		188		188		132		-		-		56
The University of British Columbia
– Sauder School of Business Power House Expansion	2027		3		144		147		-		-		-		147
– UBCO Downtown Kelowna Project	2027		22		32		54		-		-		-		54
Vancouver Community College
– Centre for Clean Energy & Automotive Innovation	2027		-		315		315		295		-		-		20
Vancouver Island University – Student Housing and Dining	2027		2		105		107		106		-		-		1
The University of British Columbia
– Student Housing - Lower Mall Precinct	2029		-		560		560		300		-		-		260
Total post-secondary institutions			1,122		2,912		4,034		2,341		-		41		1,652
Health facilities
Royal Columbian Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1 2	2020		247		4		251		242		-		-		9
Red Fish Healing Centre for Mental Health and Addiction - θəqiʔ ɫəwʔənəq leləm 2	2021		129		2		131		131		-		-		-
Peace Arch Hospital Renewal 2	2022		87		-		87		8		-		-		79
Penticton Regional Hospital Patient Care Tower 2
– Direct procurement	2022		65		11		76		18		-		-		58
– P3 contract	2019		232		-		232		-		139		-		93
Dogwood Lodge Long-term Care Home Replacement 2	2023		63		2		65		-		-		-		65
Lions Gate Hospital – New Acute Care Facility	2024		265		61		326		160		-		-		166
Stuart Lake Hospital Replacement	2024		132		26		158		140		-		-		18
Clinical and Systems Transformation	2025		803		-		803		702		-		-		101
iHealth Project – Vancouver Island Health Authority	2025		151		4		155		55		-		-		100
Nanaimo Regional General Hospital – ICU/HAU Redevelopment	2025		38		22		60		22		-		-		38
Surrey Memorial Hospital
- Hemodialysis Renal Centre	2025		-		85		85		84		-		-		1
- Interventional Cardiology and Interventional Radiology	2025		-		97		97		97		-		-		-
Mills Memorial Hospital Replacement	2026		563		70		633		513		-		-		120
Royal Columbian Hospital Redevelopment Phases 2 & 3	2026		716		528		1,244		1,182		-		-		62
University Hospital of Northern BC Redevelopment Phase 1 – Site Preparation	2026		2		101		103		62		-		-		41
Abbotsford Long-Term Care	2027		22		189		211		157		-		-		54

Health projects are continued on the next page

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  27

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million ¹

Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from Budget 2024 released on February 22, 2024

		Project		Estimated		Anticipated		Project Financing
($ millions)	Year of Completion	Cost to Jun. 30, 2024		Cost to Complete		Total Cost		Internal/ Borrowing		P3 Liability		Federal Gov't		Other Contrib'ns
Health projects continued
Campbell River Long-Term Care	2027		-		134		134		80		-		-		54
Cowichan District Hospital Replacement	2027		327		1,119		1,446		1,148		-		-		298
Dawson Creek and District Hospital Replacement	2027		122		468		590		413		-		-		177
Delta Long-Term Care	2027		1		179		180		162		-		-		18
Immunization BC Digital Platform	2027		53		22		75		75		-		-		-
Nanaimo Long-Term Care	2027		-		286		286		172		-		-		114
New St. Paul's Hospital	2027		1,132		1,048		2,180		1,327		-		-		853
Richmond Long-Term Care	2027		-		178		178		178		-		-		-
Royal Inland Hospital Phil and Jennie Gaglardi Tower
– Direct procurement	2027		106		63		169		79		-		-		90
– P3 contract	2022		288		-		288		-		164		-		124
Western Communities Long-Term Care	2027		1		223		224		157		-		-		67
Burnaby Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1	2028		213		504		717		667		-		-		50
Centre for Children and Youth Living with Health Complexity	2028		6		304		310		224		-		-		86
Kamloops Cancer Centre	2028		-		359		359		314		-		-		45
Nanaimo Cancer Centre	2028		-		289		289		277		-		-		12
St. Vincent's Heather Long-Term Care	2028		4		203		207		207		-		-		-
Cariboo Memorial Hospital Redevelopment	2029		73		294		367		257		-		-		110
Chilliwack Long-Term Care	2029		-		274		274		246		-		-		28
Cottonwoods Long-Term Care Replacement	2029		-		187		187		112		-		-		75
Dr. F.W. Green Memorial Home	2029		-		156		156		94		-		-		62
New Surrey Hospital and BC Cancer Centre	2029		444		2,437		2,881		2,816		-		-		65
St. Paul's Hospital Clinical Support and Research Centre	2029		7		631		638		332		-		-		306
Vancouver General Hospital – Operating Rooms Renewal - Phase 2	2029		39		293		332		312		-		-		20
Burnaby Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 2 and BC Cancer Centre	2030		4		1,727		1,731		1,703		-		-		28
Squamish (Hilltop) Long-Term Care	2030		-		286		286		286		-		-		-
University Hospital of Northern BC Redevelopment Phase 2 – Acute Care Tower	2031		-		1,579		1,579		1,246		-		-		333
Richmond Hospital Redevelopment	2033		23		1,936		1,959		1,889		-		-		70
Total health facilities			6,358		16,381		22,739		18,346		303		-		4,090
Transportation
Highway 91 Alex Fraser Bridge Capacity Improvements 2	2019		70		-		70		37		-		33		-
Highway 99 10-Mile Slide 2	2021		83		5		88		88		-		-		-
Highway 4 Kennedy Hill Safety Improvements 2	2022		56		11		67		53		-		14		-
Highway 14 Corridor improvements 2	2023		75		2		77		48		-		29		-
Highway 91 to Highway 17 and Deltaport Way Corridor improvements 2	2023		243		17		260		87		-		82		91
West Fraser Road Realignment 2	2023		76		18		94		82		-		12		-
Highway 1 Corridor – Falls Creek	2024		65		78		143		82		-		61		-
Highway 1 Kicking Horse Canyon Phase 4 2	2024		587		14		601		386		-		215		-
Highway 1 Quartz Creek Bridge Replacement	2024		85		34		119		69		-		50		-
Highway 5 Corridor	2024		232		118		350		141		-		209		-
BC Transit Victoria HandyDART Facility	2025		47		37		84		41		-		21		22
Highway 1 Chase Four-Laning 5	2025		123		73		196		184		-		12		-

Transportation projects are continued on the next page

 

28  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million ¹

Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from Budget 2024 released on February 22, 2024

		Project		Estimated		Anticipated		Project Financing
($ millions)	Year of Completion	Cost to Jun. 30, 2024		Cost to Complete		Total Cost		Internal/ Borrowing		P3 Liability		Federal Gov't		Other Contrib'ns
Transportation projects continued
Highway 1 Corridor – Nicomen Bridge	2025		45		99		144		109		-		35		-
Highway 1 Salmon Arm West 6	2025		92		48		140		109		-		31		-
Highway 7 Widening – 266th St. to 287th St.	2025		54		76		130		101		-		29		-
Highway 17 Keating Cross Overpass	2025		38		39		77		58		-		17		2
Highway 99 / Steveston Interchange, Transit & Cycling Improvements	2025		62		75		137		137		-		-		-
Pattullo Bridge Replacement	2025		948		429		1,377		1,377		-		-		-
Blackwater North Fraser Slide	2026		5		198		203		200		-		3		-
Cottonwood Hill at Highway 97 Slide	2026		7		328		335		330		-		5		-
Highway 1 216th St. to 264th St. widening	2026		61		284		345		249		-		96		-
Highway 1 Ford Road to Tappen Valley Road Four-Laning	2026		85		158		243		161		-		82		-
Highway 1 Selkirk	2026		6		123		129		97		-		32		-
Highway 95 Bridge Replacement	2026		5		85		90		61		-		29		-
Kootenay Lake ferry service upgrade	2026		63		54		117		100		-		17		-
Belleville Terminal Redevelopment	2027		10		294		304		262		-		42		-
Broadway Subway 7	2027		1,553		1,274		2,827		1,830		-		897		100
Highway 1 Bus on Shoulder McKenzie to Colwood Interchange	2027		2		93		95		68		-		27		-
Highway 1 Goldstream Safety Improvements	2027		16		146		162		162		-				-
Highway 1 Jumping Creek to MacDonald	2027		14		231		245		199		-		46		-
Highway 1 R.W. Bruhn Bridge	2027		42		218		260		169		-		91		-
Highway 1 Fraser Valley Corridor Improvements 264th St. to Mount Lehman Road	2028		99		2,241		2,340		2,340		-		-		-
Surrey Langley SkyTrain Project	2029		556		5,440		5,996		4,441		-		1,306		249
Fraser River Tunnel Project 8	2030		96		4,052		4,148		4,148		-		-		-
Highway 1 Fraser Valley Corridor Improvements Mount Lehman Road to Highway 11	2031		31		2,620		2,651		2,651		-		-		-
Total transportation			5,632		19,012		24,644		20,657		-		3,523		464
Housing
Stanley New Fountain 2	2023		77		1		78		9		-		-		69
Crosstown	2024		64		8		72		61		-		-		11
58 W Hastings	2024		99		59		158		67		-		19		72
1015 Hastings St. Development	2025		44		107		151		110		-		22		19
128 to 134 East Cordova St.	2025		10		156		166		36		-		27		103
320 Hastings St. E. Redevelopment	2025		-		86		86		49		-		5		32
Clark & 1st Ave	2026		9		100		109		75		-		-		34
1410 E King Edward Ave	2026		3		76		79		73		-		-		6
2086-2098 W 7th Ave	2026		3		105		108		92		-		-		16
300 Angela Drive	2026		59		145		204		164		-		37		3
1451 Bertram St	2028		1		119		120		120		-		-		-
926 & 930 Pandora Ave	2029		1		139		140		130		-		-		10
Total housing			370		1,101		1,471		986		-		110		375
Other taxpayer-supported
Connect the Basin – high-speed internet infrastructure	2027		1		75		76		43		-		29		4
Nanaimo Correctional Centre Replacement	2024		171		10		181		181		-		-		-
Royal BC Museum – Collections and Research Building	2025		88		182		270		270		-		-		-
Total other taxpayer-supported			260		267		527		494		-		29		4
Total taxpayer-supported			16,399		42,074		58,473		47,769		303		3,703		6,698

 

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  29

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million ¹

Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from Budget 2024 released on February 22, 2024

		Project		Estimated		Anticipated		Project Financing
($ millions)	Year of Completion	Cost to Jun. 30, 2024		Cost to Complete		Total Cost		Internal/ Borrowing		P3 Liability		Federal Gov't		Other Contrib'ns
Power generation and transmission
BC Hydro
– LNG Canada load interconnection project 2	2021		82		-		82		58		-		-		24
– Mica replace units 1 - 4 generator transformers project 2	2022		77		12		89		89		-		-		-
– 5L063 Telkwa relocation project 2	2023		51		2		53		53		-		-		-
– Street light replacement program 2	2023		59		1		60		60		-		-		-
– Various Sites - NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection implementation project for cyber assets 2	2023		53		5		58		58		-		-		-
– Lake Buntzen 1 Coquitlam Tunnel Gates Refurbishment project 2	2023		61		13		74		74		-		-		-
– Wahleach refurbish generator project 2	2023		56		5		61		61		-		-		-
– Capilano substation upgrade project 2	2024		71		8		79		79		-		-		-
– G.M. Shrum G1 to 10 control system upgrade 2	2024		70		5		75		75		-		-		-
– Mica modernize controls project	2024		53		3		56		56		-		-		-
– Vancouver Island radio system project	2024		49		4		53		53		-		-		-
– Bridge River 1 - penstock concrete foundation refurbishment project	2025		48		24		72		72		-		-		-
– Natal - 60-138 kV switchyard upgrade project	2025		60		41		101		101		-		-		-
– Site C project 9	2025		13,530		2,470		16,000		16,000		-		-		-
– Mainwaring station upgrade project	2026		41		113		154		154		-		-		-
– Ruskin - left abutment slope sinkhole remediation project	2026		27		44		71		71		-		-		-
– Sperling substation metalclad switchgear replacement project	2026		52		24		76		76		-		-		-
– Fleetwood - Distribution load interconnection (SLS Servicing) project	2027		1		157		158		77		-		-		81
– Long Lake terminal station - transmission load interconnection project	2027		3		77		80		79		-		-		1
– Minette - transmission load interconnection project	2027		3		69		72		52		-		-		20
– Treaty Creek Terminal - Transmission Load Interconnection (KSM) project	2028		45		123		168		81		-		-		87
– Kootenay Canal modernize controls project	2028		10		51		61		61		-		-		-
– Northwest - substations outage mitigation project	2028		14		75		89		87		-		-		2
– Peace to Kelly Lake stations sustainment project	2028		70		274		344		344		-		-		-
– Prince George to Terrace capacitors project	2028		45		537		582		481		-		97		4
– Burrard switchyard - control building upgrade project	2029		5		52		57		57		-		-		-
– John Hart dam seismic upgrade project	2029		232		680		912		912		-		-		-
– Bridge River 1 replace units 1-4 generators/governors project	2030		17		296		313		313		-		-		-
Total power generation and transmission			14,885		5,165		20,050		19,734		-		97		219
Other self-supported
ICBC Head Office Relocation	2028		-		162		162		162		-		-		-
Total self-supported			14,885		5,327		20,212		19,896		-		97		219
Total projects over $50 million			31,284		47,401		78,685		67,665		303		3,800		6,917

1	Only projects that receive provincial funding and have been approved by Treasury Board and/or Crown corporation boards are included in this table. Ministry service plans may highlight projects that still require final approval. Capital costs reflect current government accounting policy.
2	Assets have been put into service and only trailing costs remain.

3	The anticipated total cost was previously reported as $52 million and has been reduced to $43 million to reflect current estimates.
4	The Seismic Mitigation Program consists of spending to date on Phase 2 of the program and may include spending on projects greater than $50 million included in the table.
5	Project is delivered in two segments, the Chase Creek Road to Chase West reached substantial completion in 2023 and the Chase West to Chase Creek Bridge is expected to complete in 2025.
6	Project is delivered in two segments, the Salmon Arm West 1st Ave to 10th Ave reached substantial completion in 2023 and the Salmon Arm West 10th Ave to 10th St. is expected to complete in 2025.
7	The Broadway Subway Project forecast and value of costs incurred to date include the City of Vancouver in-kind contribution of land rights, in keeping with the approved project budget. Under current government accounting, purchased intangible assets are given accounting recognition, and contributed intangible assets, such as land use rights or licenses are not.
8	The Fraser River Tunnel is forecasted to open to the public in 2030 with the removal of the existing tunnel to follow.
9	The approved project cost estimate (June 2021) is $16 billion, with a project in-service date of 2025 (first and last generating unit in-service in December 2024 and 2025, respectively). The anticipated project cost and cost to date include capital costs, charges subject to regulatory deferral and certain operating expenditures.

30  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.12 2024/25 Provincial Debt ¹

	Year-to-Date to June 30									Full Year
	2024/25							Actual		2024/25							Actual
($ millions)	Budget		Actual		Variance			2023/24		Budget		Forecast		Variance			2023/24
Taxpayer-supported debt
Provincial government
Operating		9,000		21,127		12,127			-		10,275		16,495		6,220			8,729
Capital 2		42,018		41,309		(709	)		37,366		46,439		46,364		(75	)		40,582
Total provincial government		51,018		62,436		11,418			37,366		56,714		62,859		6,145			49,311
Taxpayer-supported entities
BC Transportation Financing Authority		22,045		22,208		163			19,570		26,066		25,264		(802	)		21,286
Health authorities and hospital societies		2,374		2,379		5			2,047		2,332		2,340		8			2,387
Post-secondary institutions		918		900		(18	)		909		981		979		(2	)		897
Social housing 3		1,354		1,152		(202	)		1,044		1,872		1,249		(623	)		1,182
Other		423		382		(41	)		297		674		655		(19	)		339
Total taxpayer-supported entities		27,114		27,021		(93	)		23,867		31,925		30,487		(1,438	)		26,091
Total taxpayer-supported debt		78,132		89,457		11,325			61,233		88,639		93,346		4,707			75,402
Self-supported debt		33,425		33,024		(401	)		30,347		34,628		35,264		636			32,060
Total provincial debt		111,557		122,481		10,924			91,580		123,267		128,610		5,343			107,462

1	Provincial debt is prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and presented consistent with the Debt Summary Report included in the Public Accounts. Debt is shown net of sinking funds and unamortized discounts, excludes accrued interest, and includes non-guaranteed debt directly incurred by commercial Crown corporations and debt guaranteed by the Province.
2	Includes debt incurred by the government to fund the building of capital assets in the education, health, social housing and other sectors.
3	Includes debt incurred by BC Housing Management Commission (BCHMC) and the Provincial Rental Housing Corporation (now a subsidiary of BCHMC) to fund investments in affordable housing. The debt forecast reflects projects that have been approved as of June 2024.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  31

Updated 2024/25 Financial Forecast

Table 1.13 2024/25 Statement of Financial Position

	Actual March 31,			Year-to-Date June 30,			Forecast March 31,
($ millions)	2024			2024			2025
Financial assets:
Cash and temporary investments		6,768			16,821			4,600
Other financial assets		22,057			23,260			21,670
Sinking funds		491			518			561
Investments in commercial Crown corporations:
Retained earnings		14,677			15,015			15,403
Recoverable capital loans		30,572			31,721			33,877
Total investments in commercial Crown corporations		45,249			46,736			49,280
Total financial assets		74,565			87,335			76,111
Liabilities:
Accounts payable, accrued liabilities and others		23,798			22,093			22,427
Deferred revenue		15,053			15,805			16,154
Debt:
Taxpayer-supported debt		75,402			89,457			93,346
Self-supported debt		32,060			33,024			35,264
Total provincial debt		107,462			122,481			128,610
Add: debt offset by sinking funds		491			518			561
Add: foreign exchange adjustments		494			650			700
Less : guarantees and non-guaranteed debt		(1,476	)		(1,542	)		(1,592	)
Financial statement debt		106,971			122,107			128,279
Total liabilities		145,822			160,005			166,860
Net liabilities		(71,257	)		(72,670	)		(90,749	)
Capital and other non-financial assets:
Tangible capital assets		65,583			66,666			76,100
Other non-financial assets		4,053			4,247			4,049
Total capital and other non-financial assets		69,636			70,913			80,149
Accumulated surplus (deficit)		(1,621	)		(1,757	)		(10,600	)

Changes in Financial Position

	Year-to-Date June 30,			Forecast March 31,
($ millions)	2024			2025
Deficit (surplus) for the period		(177	)		8,979
Change in remeasurement (gains) losses and other adjustments		313			-
Decrease in accumulated surplus		136			8,979
Capital and other non-financial asset changes:
Taxpayer-supported capital investments		1,829			13,609
Less: amortization and other accounting changes		(746	)		(3,092	)
Increase in net capital assets		1,083			10,517
Increase (decrease) in other non-financial assets		194			(4	)
Increase in capital and other non-financial assets		1,277			10,513
Increase in net liabilities		1,413			19,492
Investment and working capital changes:
Investment in commercial Crown corporations:
Increase in retained earnings		338			726
Self-supported capital investments		1,047			4,418
Less: loan repayments and other accounting changes		102			(1,113	)
Increase in investment in commercial Crown corporations		1,487			4,031
Increase (decrease) in cash and temporary investments		10,053			(2,168	)
Increase (decrease) in other working capital		2,183			(47	)
Increase in investment and working capital		13,723			1,816
Increase in financial statement debt		15,136			21,308
Change in sinking fund debt and foreign exchange adjustments		(183	)		(276	)
Increase (decrease) in guarantees and non-guaranteed debt		66			116
Increase in total provincial debt		15,019			21,148

32  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

PART 2 | ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK ¹

Summary

B.C.'s economic outlook has improved slightly this year, with strong employment and population growth, while exports and retail sales have been weak. High interest rates have weighed on home sales but home construction remains strong, and government capital plans are expected to support economic activity. Inflation has continued to trend down toward the Bank of Canada's target range, but shelter prices remain elevated. Despite ongoing global economic uncertainty, the province benefits from a diverse economy and is well positioned to weather ongoing global, national, and local economic challenges.

The Ministry of Finance (Ministry) estimates that B.C.'s economy grew by 1.5 per cent in 2023. The Ministry forecasts economic growth to slow to 1.0 per cent in 2024 and then pick up to 2.0 per cent in 2025. The impact of high interest rates across the globe is expected to slow economic growth in 2024, affecting both domestic and foreign demand, particularly weakening international trade. As interest rates decline and these factors subside, economic growth is expected to strengthen in 2025, supported by higher investment, tightening labour markets, stronger consumer spending, and a recovery in exports. Over the medium-term (2026 to 2028), real GDP growth is expected to average 2.3 per cent annually. Overall, the Ministry's forecast for B.C. real GDP growth is within the range of private sector forecasters.

The main downside risks to B.C.'s economic outlook include persistent price pressures leading to interest rates remaining elevated for longer, an extended slowdown in housing markets, and uncertainty about immigration levels. Other risks include weaker global demand, climate change impacts, the economic impacts of international geopolitical conflicts, as well as commodity market volatility.

Chart 2.1    Ministry's Outlook for B.C. Compared to Private Sector

 

Sources: B.C. Ministry of Finance; Private Sector range (low/average/high of Economic Forecast Council subset consisting of BMO, CIBC, National Bank, RBC, Scotiabank and TD).

¹ Reflects data available as of August 21, 2024, unless otherwise indicated.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  33

Economic Review and Outlook

British Columbia Economic Activity and Outlook

At a high level, B.C.'s economic performance has been generally in line with expectations from Budget 2024. The Ministry's forecast for B.C. real GDP growth in 2024 has been revised up slightly to 1.0 per cent from 0.8 per cent, reflecting increases in government spending and investment as reported in Budget 2024. Employment has exceeded expectations this year, while retail sales and exports have underperformed. The forecast for 2025 has been lowered to 2.0 per cent from 2.3 per cent. This revision reflects weaker exports that year and the impact of high interest rates over a longer than expected period. Nominal GDP growth for 2024 has been revised up slightly to 3.5 per cent from 3.3 per cent, and in 2025 down slightly to 4.3 per cent from 4.4 per cent, reflecting changes in real GDP. B.C.'s economy is expected to see solid growth from 2026 to 2028, with average annual real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent and average annual nominal GDP growth of 4.7 per cent, similar to the Budget 2024 forecast.

Table 2.1      British Columbia Economic Indicators

	First Quarter		Second Quarter		Year-to-date
All data seasonally adjusted, per cent change	Jan. to Mar. 2024 change from Oct. to Dec. 2023		Apr. to Jun. 2024 change from Jan. to Mar. 2024		Jan. to Jun. 2024 change from Jan. to Jun. 2023
Employment		+0.6		+0.7		+2.8
Manufacturing shipments		-4.8		+2.1		-2.8
Exports		+1.4		-5.0		-3.7
Retail sales1		-1.3		+0.6		-0.3
Consumer price index2		+2.8		+2.8		+2.8
Housing starts		-2.9		-8.5		-9.5
Residential sales units		+6.6		+0.7		-2.2
Residential average sale price		-0.2		+1.5		+3.4
Non-residential building permits		+39.3		-3.9		-8.0

¹ Data to May

² Quarterly calculations for CPI are year-over-year, e.g. First Quarter is Jan. to Mar. 2024 change from Jan. to Mar. 2023

B.C.'s labour market is expected to see strong growth in the near-term, supported by high population growth, before slowing in 2025 and 2026 as population growth is expected to ease in response to the federal government's announcement earlier this year to introduce a cap on international study permits. The unemployment rate is expected to remain fairly steady over the next couple of years before trending down over the forecast horizon, supported by steady job gains in the medium-term. After a period of near-term weakness, consumer spending is forecast to grow moderately over the forecast horizon. Inflation is forecast to average 2.7 per cent in 2024 and average 2.2 per cent in 2025, close to the Bank of Canada's target of 2 per cent. Residential construction activity is expected to ease somewhat from the high levels seen in 2022 and 2023, and then strengthen over the medium-term, supported by lower borrowing costs and recent government housing policies that are expected to boost the industry's productive capacity. Meanwhile, home sales activity is expected to normalize in response to interest rate cuts and rising supply. On the trade front, weak global demand and energy prices are expected to weigh on exports in the near-term, with higher export growth over the medium-term supported by liquefied natural gas (LNG) production from three projects (LNG Canada, Woodfibre LNG, and Cedar LNG).

34  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Labour Market

Labour market growth has picked up in 2024 supported by strong international migration. Despite declines in recent months, employment grew by 2.7 per cent (around +75,000 jobs) year-to-date to July 2024 compared to the same period last year. The composition of jobs remained positive, as full-time employment increased by 62,400 jobs and part-time employment increased by 12,700 jobs on a year-to-date basis. During this period, the number of jobs created was strong for the public sector (+38,800 jobs), private sector (+25,700 jobs), and for self-employed workers (+10,400 jobs).

On an industry basis, year-to-date employment gains were concentrated in the service sector (+84,100 jobs), led by health care and social assistance (+39,100 jobs); professional, scientific, and technical services (+15,500 jobs); and transportation and warehousing (+13,200 jobs). During this period, employment in the goods sector was lower than the same period last year (-9,000 jobs), where growth in forestry, fishing, mining, oil, and gas (+4,500 jobs) was offset by job losses in agriculture (-7,600 jobs) and construction (-7,100 jobs).

The provincial unemployment rate has risen against a backdrop of elevated interest rates and strong population growth, as labour force growth is outpacing job gains. However, the unemployment rate remains in line with the pre-pandemic average. B.C.'s unemployment rate reached 5.5 per cent in July 2024 and averaged 5.3 per cent year-to-date, 0.8 percentage points below the national average. Meanwhile, the job vacancy rate declined compared to the first five months of 2023, reaching 3.8 per cent in May 2024, similar to pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 2.2    B.C. Employment

 

Sources: Statistics Canada (Labour Force Survey); Haver Analytics

The size of B.C.'s labour force increased by 3.0 per cent year-to-date to July 2024, supported by strong population growth. Landed immigrants accounted for the majority of the growth in the labour force so far this year. B.C.'s labour force participation rate averaged 65.0 per cent so far this year, relatively unchanged from the first seven months of 2023. While the labour force participation rate for the prime-age group has surpassed its pre-pandemic five-year average, there has been a decline in the labour force participation rate among the 55+ years age group. An aging population poses a challenge for labour markets in B.C. and across the country.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  35

Economic Review and Outlook

Employee compensation (i.e., aggregate wages, salaries, and employers' social contributions) in B.C. increased by 8.4 per cent year-to-date to March 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, reflecting job gains and rising wages. So far this year, the average hourly wage rate rose by 7.0 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2023. Wages grew faster than the consumer price index for B.C., which increased by 2.8 per cent over the same period.

Outlook

In the near-term, solid growth is expected for employment, supported by strong immigration. The Ministry forecasts employment in B.C. to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2024 (approximately +64,200 jobs), followed by annual growth of 1.1 per cent in 2025 (approximately +30,500 jobs) as immigration is expected to slow. Over the medium-term, employment growth is forecast to average 1.3 per cent annually.

The province's unemployment rate is expected to average 5.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, reflecting the balance between job gains and labour force growth. B.C.'s unemployment rate is forecast to trend down over the medium-term to 5.1 per cent in 2028.

Employee compensation is expected to rise by 6.8 per cent in 2024, reflecting both strong wage and job growth. Over the balance of the forecast horizon, employee compensation is projected to grow by between 4.1 per cent and 4.9 per cent annually.

Demographics

On April 1, 2024, B.C.'s population was 5.65 million people, up 3.3 per cent from the same date in 2023 and the highest growth rate since 1972. During the January to March period of 2024, the province welcomed 37,705 net migrants, up 2.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2023.

Underlying the increase in net migration in the first quarter was higher net international migration (from +37,830 persons to +40,271 persons), with a significant increase in the number of net non-permanent (temporary) residents (from +16,020 persons to +25,272 persons). This follows a record high year for the number of temporary residents in 2023. The rise in international migration to B.C. and other provinces reflects higher immigration targets for permanent residents introduced by the federal government in recent years, and an expansion of federal immigration programs for temporary residents.

The rise in net international migration offset a decline in net interprovincial migration (from -962 persons to -2,566 persons). B.C. has experienced an outflow of interprovincial migrants in the last seven consecutive quarters, largely due to out migration to Alberta, and is the most significant period of interprovincial outflows since the 1997 to 2002 period.

36  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Outlook

B.C.’s July 1 population is projected to increase by 3.0 per cent in 2024, 1.2 per cent in 2025, and then by 1.5 per cent on average over the 2026 to 2028 period. Total net migration is expected to be about 113,600 persons in 2024 and 62,000 persons in 2025. In 2024 and 2025, B.C. is expected to continue to see a net loss of interprovincial migrants while international migrants are the sole driver of growth in total net migration. From 2026 to 2028, total net migration is expected to average 90,300 persons. The moderation in the total net migration forecast largely reflects a slowdown in temporary residents, specifically for international students, in response to the federal government's announcement in early 2024 to cap the number of international students granted admission into Canada in the next two years. International migrants are expected to account for approximately 90 per cent of total migrants over the medium-term.

Consumer Spending and Inflation

Consumer spending has weakened so far this year amid high prices and elevated interest rates, which have reduced consumers' purchasing power. Year-to-date to May, B.C. nominal retail sales declined by 0.3 per cent, while consumer prices rose by 2.8 per cent, indicating an even lower volume of sales. Year-to-date sales declines were led by lower spending at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (-4.7 per cent) and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book and miscellaneous retailers (-6.8 per cent). Partially offsetting these declines was growth in spending at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+10.7 per cent) and at health and personal care retailers (+6.7 per cent).

Sales at food services and drinking places in B.C., a component of the service sector, rose by 3.6 per cent year-to-date to May 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, partly due to higher prices.

Weakness has persisted for consumer sentiment in B.C., weighed down by higher interest rates and elevated prices. The Conference Board of Canada's consumer confidence index for B.C. was slightly lower in the first eight months of 2024, compared to the same period last year, and was below historical averages. The Bank of Canada's latest Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations released in July 2024 finds similar concerns at the national level, as sentiment remained weak due to elevated interest rates and higher prices, and most consumers reported spending less.

Chart 2.3    B.C. Retail Sales

 

Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  37

Economic Review and Outlook

Inflation in B.C. has continued trending towards the Bank of Canada's target range since hitting a peak of 8.1 per cent in May 2022. After recording a 3.9 per cent increase in 2023, inflation has averaged 2.8 per cent in the first seven months of 2024. Price growth this year was led by shelter (+6.6 per cent) and food (+3.3 per cent). Higher shelter prices reflect faster growth for mortgage costs and rent, as mortgages were initiated or renewed at higher borrowing rates while strong immigration and high homeownership costs for potential homebuyers put upward pressure on rental demand. Food inflation has decelerated from its high of 10.2 per cent in January 2023, reaching 2.8 per cent in July, the same as headline inflation. Declining prices for household operations and furnishings, clothing and footwear, and gasoline prices drove the deceleration of inflation in the first seven months of 2024.

Chart 2.4    B.C. Inflation

 

Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics

Outlook

The Ministry forecasts that real household consumption will increase by 2.5 per cent in 2024, supported by spending on services, followed by a 2.4 per cent gain in 2025. Annual growth is then expected to be between 2.1 per cent and 2.9 per cent over the 2026 to 2028 period.

Nominal retail sales are expected to remain subdued in the near-term as high interest rates and lower household purchasing power weigh on consumer demand for goods. The Ministry forecasts nominal retail sales to grow by 1.0 per cent in 2024, 2.5 per cent in 2025, and by annual growth of 3.7 per cent on average over the 2026 to 2028 period.

Consumer price growth is expected to continue its downward trend, but some price pressures, particularly for shelter, are anticipated to persist in the near-term. Consumer price inflation in B.C. is forecast to be 2.7 per cent in 2024 and is expected to fall to 2.2 per cent in 2025 and 2.0 per cent in 2026 and for the balance of the forecast horizon, as monetary policy works to bring inflation down to the Bank of Canada's target of around 2 per cent.

38  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Housing

So far this year, B.C.'s housing market activity has been subdued as borrowing costs remained elevated. Year-to-date to July, MLS home sales decreased by 4.0 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2023, and was below the ten-year historical average. Sales were down in most regions over this period, falling in Okanagan-Mainline (-12.4 per cent), Greater Vancouver (-4.6 per cent), and the Fraser Valley (-5.4 per cent), while sales were higher in Victoria (+1.8 per cent).

Despite lower overall demand for home purchases, the MLS average home sale price in B.C. rose so far this year. Year-to-date to July, the MLS average home sale price increased 2.8 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Chart 2.5 Home Sales and Price

 

Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Haver Analytics

Moderate price increases were also observed in the MLS composite benchmark house prices (which incorporates benchmark attributes by dwelling type in each region). Benchmark prices increased in most major markets in B.C. compared to the first seven months of 2023, rising in Vancouver Island (+3.8 per cent), Greater Vancouver (+2.7 per cent), and the Fraser Valley (+1.6 per cent), while benchmark prices were relatively flat in Victoria (+0.3 per cent) and decreased in the Okanagan Valley (-1.9 per cent).

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  39

Economic Review and Outlook

Chart 2.6 Greater Vancouver HPI Benchmark Price

 

Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Haver Analytics

Homebuilding has trended lower so far this year following record high levels in 2023, but remained resilient to elevated interest rates, skilled-labour shortages, and high construction costs. While housing starts decreased 8.3 per cent year-to-date to July 2024, they averaged 46,810 annualized units over this period, well above the ten-year historical average of 41,434 units. Compositionally, single-family housing starts fell by 23.1 per cent over this period, while multiples decreased by 4.8 per cent. Among Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) in B.C., homebuilding in Vancouver was lower (-17.9 per cent) than the first seven months of 2023, while homebuilding was higher in Kelowna (+70.5 per cent), and Abbotsford (+30.4 per cent). Housing starts in Victoria (-0.5 per cent) were down slightly. However, home completions were broadly higher year-to-date to July 2024, with increases in Vancouver, Victoria, and Abbotsford while Kelowna saw a decline.

Residential building permits (a leading indicator of home construction) saw continued moderation in the first six months of 2024, following lower permitting in 2023. Year-to-date to June, the value of residential building permits declined 7.0 per cent compared to the same period of 2023, and the number of residential units permitted fell 9.6 per cent. This was driven by lower multiple-dwelling permits, while single-dwelling permits also decreased. Among CMAs, residential building permits were lower for each of the largest areas, driven by lower permitting in Vancouver and Kelowna.

40  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Chart 2.7    B.C. Housing Starts

 

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; Haver Analytics

* Historical average from Jan. 2014 to Dec. 2023

Outlook

The Ministry expects home sales activity to remain subdued in 2024 following slow activity in 2023. The Ministry forecasts unit home sales to increase by 2.0 per cent in 2024, remaining below historically typical levels, and then rebound by 12.7 per cent in 2025 as the effects of higher interest rates fade. Home sales are expected to average 2.9 per cent growth annually in the 2026 to 2028 period. The average home sales price in B.C. is expected to rise by 2.4 per cent in 2024, followed by growth of 2.9 per cent in 2025, and 2.5 per cent average annual growth in the medium-term. Putting unit sales and prices together, the total value of home sales are forecast to increase by 4.5 per cent in 2024 and 15.9 per cent in 2025, and then average 5.5 per cent growth over the 2026 to 2028 period.

The Ministry expects B.C. housing starts to total approximately 46,700 units in 2024, down from 2023's record high, reflecting market conditions, but above the ten-year historical average. Home construction is then expected to pick back up to 48,500 units in 2025 and then average around 51,000 units per year over the medium-term, supported by population growth, private and public sector investment, and legislative actions introduced to encourage more homebuilding in the province.

Business and Government

Non-residential permitting declined in the first six months of this year. The total value of non-residential building permits fell by 8.0 per cent year-to-date to June 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. The decline was driven by lower permit issuance for institutional and governmental building (-43.6 per cent). The value of permit issuance for commercial building (+8.5 per cent) and industrial building (+23.1 per cent) was higher than the first six months of 2023.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  41

Economic Review and Outlook

Small business confidence in B.C. was unchanged so far this year compared to the first seven months of 2023, but remained broadly positive. Year-to-date to July, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business' 12-month small business confidence index indicated that slightly more small business owners were expecting stronger performance over the next year than those expecting weaker performance. In July, respondents across Canada reported that labour shortages have eased and that the main limitation to sales or production growth was due to insufficient domestic or foreign demand.

B.C.’s tourism sector has continued to rise following a return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. International travelers entering B.C. rose by 10.6 per cent year-to-date to May 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. While the number of U.S. visitors reached a new high in May 2024, the number of non-U.S. visitors has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite rising 15.9 per cent in the first five months of this year. In the first five months of 2024, the monthly average of 692,250 international travelers entering B.C. was close to the roughly 700,000 visitors seen in an average month prior to the pandemic.

Outlook

The Ministry forecasts total real investment in B.C. to rise by 3.5 per cent in 2024 and 4.7 per cent in 2025, supported by strong government investment. The Ministry forecasts moderate growth in the medium-term, averaging around 1.5 per cent annually over the 2026 to 2028 period.

In the near-term, real business investment is projected to decrease by 2.1 per cent in 2024 and then increase by 3.3 per cent in 2025, reflecting the dampening effects of interest rates and the subsequent rebound as interest rates decline. Over the 2026 to 2028 period, real business investment growth is expected to range between 1.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent annually, supported by overall growth in all categories, particularly residential construction, and LNG related investment.

Real expenditure on goods and services by all levels of government is forecast to slow to 0.3 per cent in 2024 and then rise by 1.0 per cent in 2025. The Ministry expects real government spending to grow between 0.2 per cent and 0.8 per cent over the 2026 to 2028 period.

The Ministry expects nominal net operating surplus of corporations (an approximation of corporate profits) to decrease by 14.9 per cent in 2024 and by 1.5 per cent in 2025, amid weak domestic and global economic activity. Net operating surplus is forecast to increase between 5.5 per cent and 7.4 per cent in the 2026 to 2028 period.

External Trade and Commodity Markets

So far this year, subdued global demand and lower energy prices have weighed on B.C. merchandise exports. During the first six months of 2024, the value of B.C. goods exports decreased by 3.7 per cent compared to the same period of 2023. Year-to-date performance across industries was mixed. The decrease was driven by lower exports of energy products (-17.4 per cent). Meanwhile, increased exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals (+16.2 per cent) and farm, fishing and intermediate food products (+13.3 per cent) partially offset the decline.

42  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Merchandise exports to the U.S. accounted for 50.1 per cent of B.C.'s total goods exports in the first six months of 2024. During this period, goods exports to the U.S. fell by 8.7 per cent, largely due to a decline in energy products (-45.2 per cent), primarily natural gas. Meanwhile, total goods exports to non-U.S. destinations increased by 1.8 per cent, driven by higher exports to China. Higher exports to non-U.S. destinations was led by metal ores and non-metallic minerals (+18.0 per cent).

Chart 2.8 B.C. Exports

 

Source: BC Stats

Similar to merchandise exports, B.C.'s manufacturing shipments decreased by 2.8 per cent year-to-date to June 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, mainly due to reduced shipments of fabricated metal products (-13.8 per cent).

Following periods of high volatility from 2020 to 2022, the price of Western spruce-pine-fir (SPF) has returned closer to historical average levels throughout last year and so far in 2024. Despite declining since April 2024, the price for SPF 2x4 increased 4.1 per cent in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, averaging $409 US/000 board feet so far in 2024.

Oil prices have crept up following declines seen in 2023, amid opposing factors of uncertainty from geopolitical conflicts and softening global demand. In the first seven months of 2024, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price averaged $79.95 per barrel, up 6.5 per cent from the same period of 2023. Meanwhile, as inventories have risen due to strong increases in U.S. natural gas production and milder winter weather, the plant inlet price of natural gas fell 60.8 per cent year-to-date, averaging $0.79 C/GJ in the first seven months of 2024.

The average metallurgical coal price fell by 5.3 per cent year-to-date to July 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, along with prices for zinc (-4.1 per cent) and molybdenum (-20.8 per cent). Meanwhile, the price of lead was flat (0.0 per cent); the price of copper rose 5.4 per cent; and the price for gold and silver increased by 15.3 per cent and 13.4 per cent, respectively.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  43

Economic Review and Outlook

Outlook

Real exports of goods and services are forecast to decline by 0.9 per cent in 2024, reflecting lower prices for key commodities and weak global demand, and are expected to rise by 2.4 per cent in 2025. Over the 2026 to 2028 period, real exports of goods and services are expected to grow between 3.2 per cent and 4.3 per cent annually. The anticipated production of LNG, by LNG Canada by mid-2025 and in the latter years of the forecast horizon by Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG, provides support to the outlook.

The price of lumber is forecast to average $390 US/000 board feet in 2024 before rising to $400 US/000 board feet in 2025, $425 US/000 board feet in 2026, and then average $450 US/000 board feet in 2027 and 2028. The plant inlet price for natural gas is expected to average $0.75 C/GJ in 2024/25, $1.85 C/GJ in 2025/26, and $2.21 C/GJ in 2026/27.

Risks to the Economic Outlook

B.C.'s economic outlook faces uncertainties related to inflation, interest rates, immigration levels, the global economy, and disruptions from geopolitical and climate-related factors. Potential upsides include interest rates easing sooner than expected, increased economic activity and productivity from a growing population, as well as a less pronounced slowing of the global economy. Downside risks to B.C.'s economic outlook include the following:

· persistent high inflation leading to elevated interest rates over a longer period, weighing on consumer spending and business investment;

· higher mortgage costs and rent reducing affordability and disposable income;

· aging demographics and housing affordability weighing on the supply of labour;

· severe climate-related events disrupting the lives and livelihoods of British Columbians, destroying productive capital, and impacting economic activity;

· uncertainty about immigration levels impacting the supply of labour and consumer spending, potentially exacerbating fluctuations in economic activity;

· weaker than expected global economic activity and broader economic challenges in Europe and Asia;

· lower prices for B.C.'s major commodity exports, such as lumber, pulp, natural gas, copper, and coal;

· geopolitical conflicts weighing on trade as well as leading to higher commodity prices and inflation;

· higher volatility in international foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets; and

· timing of investment, operations and exports related to LNG projects in the province, similar to the risks that exist for other major capital projects.

44  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

External Outlook

The external economic outlook for most of B.C.'s major trading partners has improved for 2024 and has remained relatively unchanged for 2025 compared to Budget 2024. While global inflation has generally been easing and moving towards most central bank's target ranges, price pressures remain elevated, particularly in services, and risks of accelerating consumer prices have kept central banks cautious about cutting interest rates. So far this year, lower growth, rising unemployment rates and slowing inflation led the Bank of Canada to two consecutive 25 basis point cuts to its overnight rate, while the European Central bank lowered their deposit rate by 25 basis points. Despite economic growth in Canada picking up recently, it remains relatively weak considering the rise in population growth. While the U.S. economy continued to beat expectations in the first half of 2024, rising unemployment rates, persistent inflation and moderating consumer spending present risks to growth for the rest of 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, slower growth is anticipated for some of B.C.'s major trading partners, in part due to the lagged impacts from high interest rates. The continuation of ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices and supply chain disruptions could create additional headwinds to the global outlook.

United States

The U.S. economy continued to beat expectations in the first half of 2024. Despite ongoing restrictive monetary policy, U.S. real GDP expanded by an annualized rate of 2.8 per cent in the second quarter (April to June) of 2024, an acceleration from the 1.4 per cent increase in the first quarter (January to March). Growth in the second quarter was primarily driven by increases in consumer spending, both from services and goods; inventory accumulation; and from investment increases in equipment and intellectual property. GDP growth was partially offset by increases in imports, which subtract from GDP growth, and declines in non-residential structures and residential investment.

Chart 2.9 U.S. Real GDP

 

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  45

Economic Review and Outlook

The U.S. labour market has continued to expand in 2024 recording net payroll job gains for 43 consecutive months, as of July 2024. Year-to-date to July, total nonfarm employment has increased by 1.7 per cent (+2.7 million jobs) compared to the same period last year. The unemployment rate was 4.3 per cent in July 2024 and was 0.4 percentage points higher on average in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Average hourly earnings growth increased 4.0 per cent year-to-date to July.

High interest rates continue to take their toll on the U.S. housing market, with existing home sales declining in the first half of 2024. Year-to-date to June 2024, existing home sales fell by 3.0 per cent while new single-family home sales decreased by 1.1 per cent compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date to June 2024, median prices increased 5.0 per cent for existing homes and declined slightly (-0.4 per cent) for new single-family homes. Additionally, U.S. homebuilding declined 4.7 per cent in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, driven by a 33.8 per cent decline in multi-family starts, while gains in single-family starts (+12.2 per cent) provided some offset. Furthermore, U.S. residential building permits, an indicator of future building activity, declined by 2.9 per cent in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

Chart 2.10 U.S. Housing Starts

 

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Haver Analytics

Year-to-date to July 2024, U.S. nominal retail sales were up by 2.3 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2023, led by growth from non-store retailers as well as food services and drinking places. However, these sales (measured in nominal dollars) were somewhat inflated due to high prices and estimates of real retail sales growth were negative in the first seven months of 2024. U.S. consumer price index inflation has fallen from the highs seen in 2022 but has remained within the 2.9 to 3.7 per cent range since June 2023 and was 2.9 per cent in July 2024. Like Canada, shelter inflation in the U.S. remains persistent while energy prices, specifically gasoline, continue to put downward pressure on CPI. The Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index has declined in four of the last six months and year-to-date to July 2024, U.S. consumer sentiment was lower than last year.

46  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Outlook

In July 2024, Consensus Economics (Consensus) projected U.S. economic growth of 2.3 per cent in 2024 compared to 1.4 per cent in the January 2024 Consensus survey. Meanwhile for 2025, Consensus forecasts growth of 1.7 per cent.

Table 2.2 U.S. Real GDP Forecast: Consensus versus B.C. Ministry of Finance

	2024		2025
	Per cent change in real GDP
B.C. Ministry of Finance		2.4		1.6
Consensus Economics (July 2024*)		2.3		1.7

* Comparable month to B.C. Ministry of Finance forecast.

While the U.S. economy has exceeded expectations recently, risks remain for the second half of 2024 and into 2025. These risks include moderating job growth and consumer spending, rising unemployment, still-elevated inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Given uncertainty in the outlook, the Ministry assumes that U.S. real GDP will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2024 (slightly higher than the July Consensus, which was released prior to the strong second quarter data) and by 1.6 per cent in 2025, with growth averaging around 1.7 per cent annually over the medium-term.

Chart 2.11 Consensus Outlook for the U.S. in 2024

 

Source: Consensus Economics

The chart above represents forecasts for U.S. real GDP growth in 2024 as polled on specific dates. For example, forecasters surveyed on January 9, 2023 had an average 2024 U.S. real GDP growth forecast of 1.1 per cent, while on August 12, 2024 they forecast 2024 U.S. real GDP to grow by 2.5 per cent.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  47

Economic Review and Outlook

Canada

The Canadian economy grew by 1.7 per cent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2024, following modest growth of 0.1 per cent in the fourth (October to December) quarter of 2023. Real GDP growth in the first quarter was driven by gains in consumer spending, growing by 3.0 per cent, primarily from an increase in household spending on services (+4.3 per cent). Exports of goods and services grew by 1.9 per cent in the first quarter, supported by increased shipments of precious metals. Business investment grew 3.1 per cent in the first quarter, driven by gains in machinery and equipment and intellectual property, while growth was moderated by a slowdown in inventory accumulation. Overall, Canada's real GDP has increased by 0.5 per cent year-to-date to the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period from 2023.

Chart 2.12 Canadian Real GDP

 

Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics

Following growth of 2.4 per cent in 2023, Canadian employment continued to grow in 2024, but at a slower pace. Year-to-date to July 2024, employment was up by 1.8 per cent (+358,000 jobs) compared to the same period last year. The unemployment rate was 6.4 per cent in July and has increased by 1.3 percentage points since April 2023, reflecting the labour force growing at a faster pace than employment, supported by strong immigration and population growth. Year-to-date to July, the unemployment rate was 0.9 percentage points higher compared to the first seven months of 2023 and averaged 6.1 per cent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for youth (ages 15-24) increased even higher, rising to 14.2 per cent in July 2024, from 10.6 per cent in July 2023. Furthermore, job vacancies have fallen 24.8 per cent year-to-date to May 2024.

Canadian home sales have remained subdued so far in 2024, mainly as a result of high interest rates. Year-to-date to July, Canadian home sales have increased by 3.6 per cent but remain at a relatively low level. Soft demand and an increase in listings have limited price growth in the first seven months of 2024 resulting in the national average home sale price increasing only 0.5 per cent year-to-date to July 2024.

Following an 8.2 per cent decline in 2023, housing starts averaged 252,364 annualized units in the first seven months of 2024, up 6.7 per cent compared to the same period last year. Despite high borrowing costs for developers and skilled-labour shortages, starts have remained elevated in response to strong population growth. Within housing categories, multi-family starts increased by 9.2 per cent, while single-family starts were up 0.3 per cent. Regionally, the increase in housing starts in 2024 so far has been primarily driven by more construction in the urban centers of Montreal (+46.1 per cent), Edmonton (+54.4 per cent), and Calgary (+40.5 per cent), partially offset by declines in Toronto (-9.5 per cent) and Vancouver (-17.9 per cent).

48  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Consumer price inflation in Canada has eased to 2.5 per cent in July 2024, down from 3.4 per cent in December 2023 and the 8.1 per cent high in June 2022. Since the start of 2024, inflation has fluctuated between 2.5 per cent and 2.9 per cent, within the Bank of Canada's (BoC) target range, but persistent price pressures remain. In July, shelter (+5.7 per cent) prices contributed the most upward pressure on national inflation.

Despite strong immigration, the pace of consumer spending has not matched population growth. Canadian nominal retail sales were up only 0.9 per cent year-to-date to May compared to the same period last year, while in real terms (which exclude price effects), they were up 1.0 per cent.

After declining 2.1 per cent in 2023, Canadian nominal goods exports were flat in the first half of 2024 (0.0 per cent) compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date to June, strength in exports of energy products (+4.3 per cent) and metal and non-metallic minerals (+4.3 per cent) was offset by large declines in farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-11.0 per cent) and metal ores and non-metallic minerals (-16.7 per cent). Meanwhile, service exports have continued to recover, growing 5.2 per cent year-to-date to June, primarily driven by the rise in commercial service exports.

Outlook

The July 2024 Consensus forecasts Canadian real GDP to rise by 1.0 per cent in 2024 (0.6 percentage points higher than the January 2024 survey) and by 1.8 per cent in 2025.

Table 2.3 Canadian Real GDP Forecast: Consensus versus B.C. Ministry of Finance

	2024		2025
	Per cent change in real GDP
B.C. Ministry of Finance		0.9		1.7
Consensus Economics (July 2024*)		1.0		1.8

* Comparable month to B.C. Ministry of Finance forecast.

The impact from high interest rates is expected to continue to moderate consumer spending in 2024 with households spending a larger share of income on servicing debt. In their July Monetary Policy Report, the BoC expected that Canadian economic growth will strengthen as interest rates ease. The Ministry prudently assumes that the Canadian economy will grow by 0.9 per cent in 2024, 1.7 per cent in 2025 and then average 1.8 per cent annual growth over the 2026 to 2028 period.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  49

Economic Review and Outlook

Chart 2.13 Consensus Outlook for Canada in 2024

Forecast annual per cent

change in Canadian real GDP, 2024

 

Source: Consensus Economics

The chart above represents forecasts for Canadian real GDP growth in 2024 as polled on specific dates. For example, forecasters surveyed on January 9, 2023 had an average 2024 Canadian real GDP growth forecast of 1.6 per cent, while on August 12, 2024 they forecast 2024 Canadian real GDP to grow by 1.0 per cent.

Asia

Restrained consumer spending and turmoil in China's property sector continues to lead to economic volatility in 2024, with second quarter real GDP declining by an annualized rate of 2.0 per cent, following an increase of 12.5 per cent in the previous quarter. Despite ongoing fiscal support from the Chinese government, weak consumer spending and confidence along with the prolonged downturn in property sales and investment have persistently dampened real GDP growth. However, China's economy continues to benefit from strong exports, while industrial production exceeded expectations and helped offset softening domestic demand. Overall, China's real GDP grew by 5.0 per cent year-to-date to the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Japan's economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2024, following a 2.3 per cent contraction in the first quarter. The expansion in second quarter real GDP was driven by increased consumption and investment, while net trade detracted from growth. Year-to-date to the second quarter of 2024, Japan's real GDP has declined by 0.9 per cent compared to the first half of 2023. In July, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 2008.

50  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Outlook

The July 2024 Consensus forecasted that China's real GDP will grow by 4.9 per cent in 2024 and 4.4 per cent in 2025. However, ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, the extended downturn in the property sector, weak consumer spending and domestic confidence could create headwinds for China's economy. The Ministry prudently forecasts that China's economy will expand by 4.7 per cent in 2024, 4.2 per cent in 2025, and average 4.2 per cent annual growth over the 2026 to 2028 period.

The July 2024 Consensus projects Japan real GDP growth of 0.1 per cent in 2024 and 1.3 per cent in 2025. While consumer spending and the labour market have improved recently, uncertainty remains if these trends will persist with the Bank of Japan's recent increases to their interest rates, as well as additional risk of rising food and energy prices along with a weak Yen. Given uncertainty in the outlook, the Ministry assumes a slightly more moderate pace of growth in Japan's real GDP. The Ministry prudently forecasts economic activity to remain flat in 2024 and grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025, and average 0.5 per cent annual growth over the 2026 to 2028 period.

Europe

Euro zone economic growth in the first half of 2024 remains modest but has beat expectations, expanding by 1.2 per cent (annualized) in the second quarter, following a 1.1 per cent expansion in the first quarter. Among the larger member states, Spain and France were major contributors to the second quarter gain, with Spain's growth driven by strong consumer spending and exports, while France saw a boost from exports.

A contraction in economic growth from Germany, Europe's largest economy, contributed to the overall moderate growth for the euro zone.

With inflationary pressures starting to ease, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates on June 6, 2024, after holding rates steady for the past nine months. So far, the ECB has cut rates by 25 basis points. As of July 2024, inflation in the euro zone had fallen by 2.7 percentage points since July 2023 and stood at 2.6 per cent. Meanwhile, the euro zone's unemployment rate reached record lows of 6.4 per cent in April and May before increasing to 6.5 per cent in June.

Outlook

The July 2024 Consensus forecasted that the euro zone economy would grow by 0.7 per cent in 2024 and 1.4 per cent in 2025. Real GDP is expected to get a boost as inflationary pressures ease and consumer spending increases with gains in disposable income and rising consumer confidence. However, given the uncertainty associated with easing inflationary pressures, the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions, as well as future monetary policy decisions by the ECB, the Ministry's forecast for euro zone real GDP growth is prudent compared to the Consensus forecast. As such, the Ministry forecasts real GDP to grow by 0.6 per cent in 2024, followed by 1.2 per cent in 2025, and 1.2 per cent annually on average over the medium-term.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  51

Economic Review and Outlook

Financial Markets

Interest Rates

In 2024, many central banks have responded to easing inflation by cutting interest rates including the Bank of Canada (BoC), the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has yet to cut rates but the first is anticipated in September.

The Fed has held the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 per cent from July 2023 to August 2024, reflecting modest inflationary progress, and robust economic and jobs figures. At the beginning of 2024, many forecasters expected at least one rate cut by August. The Fed has instead taken a cautious approach, due to inflation sitting between 2.9 and 3.7 per cent every month since June 2023. The Fed has reiterated its willingness to adjust policies if necessary to sustain its long-term inflation goal and support maximum employment.

Following rate increases in both June and July of 2023, the BoC kept the overnight rate steady at 5.00 per cent until June 2024. In June and July, the BoC reduced rates by 25 basis points in each month to bring the rate to 4.50 per cent, reflecting diminishing excess demand, a slowdown in economic activity, and easing inflationary pressures. The gap between the BoC overnight rate and the Fed funds rate is now 1 percentage point reflecting the underlying differences between the United States and Canada in inflation levels, inflation expectations, and economic activity. Furthermore, the BoC has stated that further rate cuts can be expected as long as inflation continues to ease.

Chart 2.14 Interest Rate Forecasts

 

52  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Outlook

The future path of interest rates remains uncertain. However, both Canada and the United States are getting closer to their inflationary target rates and there are expectations of slow economic activity this year. This points to continued rate cuts by the BoC and the first cuts by the Fed in the second half of 2024. Based on the average of six private sector forecasts as of July 19, 2024, the Ministry assumes the U.S. federal funds rate will average 5.40 per cent in 2024 and 4.36 per cent in 2025. By comparison, the Bank of Canada's overnight target rate is expected to average 4.68 per cent in 2024 and 3.42 per cent in 2025.

Table 2.4   Private Sector Canadian Interest Rate Forecasts

	3-month Treasury Bill				10-year Government Bond
Average annual interest rate (per cent)	2024		2025		2024		2025
BMO		4.58		3.54		3.43		3.29
CIBC		4.62		3.16		3.39		3.11
National Bank		4.58		3.16		3.42		3.04
RBC		4.57		3.32		3.37		2.98
Scotiabank		4.52		3.38		3.47		3.59
TD		4.64		3.21		3.45		3.07
Average (as of July 19, 2024)		4.58		3.29		3.42		3.18

Exchange Rates

The Canadian dollar is slightly down against the US dollar in 2024 compared with 2023. It averaged 73.5 US cents between January and July 2024, compared with an average of 74.4 US cents during the same period in 2023, and has exhibited relatively low volatility. The slight decline was primarily influenced by the interest rate cuts in Canada while the U.S. maintained a higher rate and stronger economic activity. The exchange rate stability marked a shift from the volatility experienced between the beginning of 2020 and 2023 when investors sought safe-haven assets such as the US dollar amid the onset of new geopolitical tensions and uncertainties regarding global inflationary pressures.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  53

Economic Review and Outlook

Chart 2.15 Private Sector Expectations for the Canadian Dollar

Outlook

Based on the average of six private sector forecasts as of July 19, 2024, the Ministry assumes the Canadian dollar will average 73.0 US cents in 2024 and 73.5 US cents in 2025.

Table 2.5 Private Sector Exchange Rate Forecasts

Average annual exchange rate (US cents/Canadian $)	2024		2025
BM0		73.4		75.6
CIBC		73.0		73.8
National Bank		72.4		72.1
RBC		72.9		70.9
Scotiabank		73.2		75.3
TD		72.9		73.3
Average (as of July 19, 2024)		73.0		73.5

54  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Table 2.6.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): British Columbia

					Forecast
	2022		2023 e		2024		2025		2026		2027		2028
Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices:
– Real (chained 2017 $billions)		322.9		327.8		331.1		337.8		345.5		353.3		361.5
(% change)		3.8		1.5		1.0		2.0		2.3		2.3		2.3
– Nominal (current prices, $billions)		395.2		409.9		424.1		442.2		462.7		484.6		507.6
(% change)		11.0		3.7		3.5		4.3		4.6		4.7		4.7
– GDP price deflator (2017 = 100)		122.4		125.0		128.1		130.9		133.9		137.2		140.4
(% change)		7.0		2.1		2.4		2.2		2.3		2.4		2.4
Real GDP per person (chained 2017 $)		60,277		59,393		58,249		58,720		59,342		59,716		60,115
(% change)		1.3		-1.5		-1.9		0.8		1.1		0.6		0.7
Real GDP per employed person (% change)		0.6		-0.1		-1.3		1.0		1.2		0.9		0.9
Components of Real GDP at Market Prices (chained 2017 $billions)
Household expenditure on goods and services		200.1		202.7		207.7		212.7		217.3		223.5		229.8
(% change)		4.0		1.3		2.5		2.4		2.1		2.9		2.8
– Goods		78.3		76.6		77.7		79.0		80.3		81.7		83.2
(% change)		-2.0		-2.2		1.5		1.6		1.6		1.9		1.7
– Services		122.0		126.4		130.2		134.0		137.3		142.0		146.8
(% change)		8.5		3.5		3.1		2.9		2.4		3.4		3.4
NPISH1 expenditure on goods and services		5.1		5.2		5.3		5.5		5.6		5.7		5.8
(% change)		3.6		1.3		2.7		2.5		2.5		2.2		2.0
Government expenditure on goods and services		60.5		63.9		64.1		64.7		64.8		65.1		65.7
(% change)		4.1		5.6		0.3		1.0		0.2		0.4		0.8
Investment in fixed capital		85.1		87.6		90.6		94.8		96.7		97.4		99.0
(% change)		-2.1		2.9		3.5		4.7		2.0		0.7		1.7
Final domestic demand		350.7		359.3		367.7		377.9		384.6		391.8		400.2
(% change)		2.4		2.4		2.3		2.8		1.8		1.9		2.2
Exports of goods and services		121.1		121.3		120.2		123.1		128.3		132.5		137.0
(% change)		6.4		0.2		-0.9		2.4		4.3		3.2		3.5
Imports of goods and services		156.9		155.9		158.7		163.5		168.2		171.5		176.3
(% change)		8.0		-0.7		1.8		3.0		2.9		2.0		2.8
Inventory change		9.3		4.6		3.4		2.0		2.5		2.1		2.0
Statistical discrepancy		0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1
Real GDP at market prices		322.9		327.8		331.1		337.8		345.5		353.3		361.5
(% change)		3.8		1.5		1.0		2.0		2.3		2.3		2.3

¹ Non-profit institutions serving households.
^e B.C. Ministry of Finance estimate.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  55

Economic Review and Outlook

Table 2.6.2 Selected Nominal Income and Other Indicators: British Columbia

					Forecast
	2022		2023		2024		2025		2026		2027		2028
Compensation of employees1 ($millions)		188,707		202,207		216,033		226,517		235,956		245,543		255,946
(% change)		9.7		7.2		6.8		4.9		4.2		4.1		4.2
Household income ($millions)		326,447		351,849 e		372,717		388,940		404,487		421,416		439,730
(% change)		6.8		7.8		5.9		4.4		4.0		4.2		4.3
Net operating surplus ($millions)		53,368		45,342 e		38,598		38,008		40,083		43,036		45,993
(% change)		9.3		-15.0		-14.9		-1.5		5.5		7.4		6.9
Retail sales ($millions)		107,889		107,766		108,844		111,608		115,485		119,923		124,324
(% change)		3.1		-0.1		1.0		2.5		3.5		3.8		3.7
Housing starts (units)		46,721		50,490		46,711		48,504		50,023		51,112		51,964
(% change)		-1.9		8.1		-7.5		3.8		3.1		2.2		1.7
Residential sales ($millions)		80,263		70,946		74,128		85,923		93,757		97,997		100,860
(% change)		-30.2		-11.6		4.5		15.9		9.1		4.5		2.9
Residential sales (units)		80,519		73,088		74,574		84,040		89,405		91,242		91,612
(% change)		-35.1		-9.2		2.0		12.7		6.4		2.1		0.4
Residential average sale price ($)		996,818		970,689		994,027		1,022,414		1,048,677		1,074,034		1,100,940
(% change)		7.5		-2.6		2.4		2.9		2.6		2.4		2.5
Consumer price index (2002 = 100)		145.5		151.2		155.3		158.8		162.0		165.2		168.5
(% change)		6.9		3.9		2.7		2.2		2.0		2.0		2.0

¹ Domestic basis; wages, salaries and employers' social contributions. 

^e B.C. Ministry of Finance estimate.

Table 2.6.3 Labour Market Indicators: British Columbia

					Forecast
	2022		2023		2024		2025		2026		2027		2028
Population (thousands at July 1)		5,356		5,519		5,684		5,753		5,823		5,917		6,014
(% change)		2.5		3.0		3.0		1.2		1.2		1.6		1.6
Net migration (thousands)
– International 1,4		142.2		190.2		120.0		66.0		76.6		83.7		82.9
– Interprovincial4		6.5		-8.6		-6.4		-4.0		6.4		9.8		11.5
– Total		148.7		181.6		113.6		62.0		82.9		93.5		94.5
Labour force population2 (thousands)		4,426		4,517		4,648		4,716		4,785		4,870		4,957
(% change)		1.7		2.1		2.9		1.5		1.5		1.8		1.8
Labour force (thousands)		2,881		2,944		3,019		3,052		3,082		3,119		3,160
(% change)		1.0		2.2		2.5		1.1		1.0		1.2		1.3
Participation rate3 (%)		65.1		65.2		64.9		64.7		64.4		64.0		63.7
Employment (thousands)		2,748		2,792		2,856		2,887		2,918		2,956		2,997
(% change)		3.2		1.6		2.3		1.1		1.1		1.3		1.4
Unemployment rate (%)		4.6		5.2		5.4		5.4		5.3		5.2		5.1

¹ International migration includes net non-permanent residents and returning emigrants less net temporary residents abroad. 

² The civilian, non-institutionalized population 15 years of age and over. 

³ Percentage of the labour force population in the labour force. 

⁴ Components may not sum to total due to rounding.

56  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Economic Review and Outlook

Table 2.6.4 Major Economic Assumptions

					Forecast
	2022		2023		2024		2025		2026		2027		2028
Real GDP
Canada (chained 2017 $billions)		2,327		2,356		2,377		2,417		2,463		2,507		2,553
(% change)		3.8		1.2		0.9		1.7		1.9		1.8		1.8
U.S. (chained 2017 US$billions)		21,822		22,377		22,914		23,281		23,700		24,103		24,512
(% change)		1.9		2.5		2.4		1.6		1.8		1.7		1.7
Japan (chained 2015 Yen trillions)		550		559		559		566		569		572		575
(% change)		1.2		1.7		0.0		1.1		0.6		0.5		0.5
China (constant 2010 US$billions)		13,152		13,843		14,493		15,102		15,736		16,397		17,086
(% change)		3.0		5.2		4.7		4.2		4.2		4.2		4.2
Euro zone1 (chained 2015 Euro billions)		11,778		11,839		11,910		12,053		12,198		12,344		12,493
(% change)		3.5		0.5		0.6		1.2		1.2		1.2		1.2
Industrial production index (% change)
U.S.		3.4		0.2		0.0		1.2		1.7		1.7		1.7
Japan		0.1		-1.5		-1.5		1.9		0.8		0.8		0.8
China		3.8		4.3		4.9		3.8		3.8		3.8		3.8
Euro zone1		2.3		-2.3		-1.5		1.6		1.2		1.2		1.2
Housing starts (thousands)
Canada		262		240		240		240		230		230		230
(% change)		-3.4		-8.2		-0.1		0.0		-4.2		0.0		0.0
U.S.		1,553		1,420		1,370		1,400		1,400		1,400		1,400
(% change)		-3.0		-8.5		-3.5		2.2		0.0		0.0		0.0
Japan		860		820		795		795		840		860		860
(% change)		0.4		-4.6		-3.0		0.0		5.7		2.4		0.0
Consumer price index
Canada (2002 = 100)		151.2		157.1		161.2		164.7		168.0		171.4		174.8
(% change)		6.8		3.9		2.6		2.2		2.0		2.0		2.0
Canadian interest rates (%)
3-month Treasury bills		2.30		4.81		4.58		3.29		2.88		2.75		2.75
10-year government bonds		2.77		3.36		3.42		3.18		3.15		3.15		3.15
United States interest rates (%)
3-month Treasury bills		2.08		5.28		5.28		4.11		3.25		3.00		3.00
10-year government bonds		2.95		3.96		4.27		3.95		3.75		3.65		3.65
Exchange rate (US cents / Canadian $)		76.8		74.1		73.0		73.5		76.3		77.4		77.6
British Columbia goods and services
Export price deflator (% change)		14.5		-3.2 e		1.0		4.4		2.1		2.1		1.7

¹ Euro zone (20) is Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. 

^e B.C. Ministry of Finance estimate.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  57

This page intentionally left blank

APPENDIX | FISCAL PLAN UPDATE

Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue

Revenue Source and Assumptions   ($ millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			2024/25 Sensitivities
Personal income tax *		16,638			17,118			17,867			18,741
Current calendar year assumptions
Household income growth		4.4	%		5.9	%		4.4	%		4.0	%	+/- 1 percentage point change in 2024 B.C.
Employee compensation growth		5.5	%		6.8	%		4.9	%		4.2	%	household income growth equals +/- $150 to
Tax base growth		4.7	%		7.4	%		4.4	%		3.8	%	$160 million in revenue
Average tax yield		6.39	%		6.38	%		6.43	%		6.49	%
Current-year tax		16,072			16,452			17,296			18,136
Prior year’s tax assessments		570			570			580			590
Unapplied taxes		150			150			150			150
B.C. Tax Reduction		(195	)		(195	)		(199	)		(203	)
Non-refundable B.C. tax credits		(176	)		(176	)		(176	)		(176	)
Policy neutral elasticity **		1.1			1.2			1.2			1.2		+/- 0.5 change in 2024 B.C. policy neutral
Fiscal year assumptions													elasticity equals +/- $330 to $350 million
Prior-year adjustment		-
2023 Tax-year	2023 Assumptions
Household income growth		6.9	%		7.8	%							+/- 1 percentage point change in 2023 B.C.
Tax base growth		5.6	%		6.0	%							household or taxable income growth equals
Average 2023 tax yield		6.38	%		6.37	%							+/- $170 to $180 million one-time effect (prior-
2023 tax		15,322			15,299								year adjustment) and could result in an
2022 & prior year’s tax assessments		560			560								additional +/- $150 to $160 million base change
Unapplied taxes		150			150								in 2024/25
B.C. Tax Reduction		(190	)		(190	)
Non-refundable B.C. tax credits		(176	)		(176	)
Policy neutral elasticity **		0.8			0.7
* Reflects information as at August 8, 2024
** Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year).
Corporate income tax *		8,236			7,598			6,428			6,540
Components of revenue (fiscal year)
Installments – subject to general rate		7,718			7,155			6,946			6,865
Installments – subject to small business rate		363			362			346			342
Non-refundable B.C. tax credits		(193	)		(193	)		(198	)		(203	)
Advance installments		7,888			7,324			7,094			7,004
Prior-year settlement payment		348			274			(666	)		(464	)
Current calendar year assumptions
National tax base ($ billions)		520.8			570.8			610.8			641.3		+/- 1% change in the 2024 national tax base
B.C. installment share of national tax base		15.0	%		13.1	%		12.4	%		11.7	%	equals +/- $60 to $70 million
Effective percentage tax rates (% general/small business)		12.0 / 2.0			12.0 / 2.0			12.0 / 2.0			12.0 / 2.0
Share of the B.C. tax base subject to the small business rate		22.0	%		23.0	%		23.0	%		23.0	%	+/- 1 percentage point change in the 2024 small
B.C. tax base growth (post federal measures)		2.6	%		3.7	%		1.0	%		4.9	%	business share equals -1+ $80 to $90 million
B.C. net operating surplus growth		-9.5	%		-14.9	%		-1.5	%		5.5	%
2023 Tax-year	2023 Assumptions
B.C. tax base growth (post federal measures)		-7.1	%		-7.9	%
Share of the B.C. tax base subject to small business rate		22.5	%		23.5	%							+/- 1% change in the 2023 B.C. tax base equals
B.C. net operating surplus growth		-14.9	%		-15.0	%							+/- $60 to $80 million one-time effect (prior-year
Gross 2023 tax		6,736			6,612								adjustment) and could result in an additional
Prior-year settlement payment		348			274								installments payments of +/- $100 to $120
Prior years losses/gains (included in above)		(250	)		(200	)							million in 2024/25
Non-refundable B.C. tax credits		(186	)		(186	)

* Reflects information as at August 16, 2024

Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2024/25 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2024 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2024 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2025 payments. Installments for the 2024 (2025) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2023 (2024) tax year and a forecast of the 2024 (2025) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2022 national tax base was 13.7%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2023. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2023 will be received/paid on March 31, 2025.

 

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  59

Appendix - Fiscal Plan Update

Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)

Revenue Source and Assumptions   ($ millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			2024/25 Sensitivities
Employer health tax		2,803			2,962			3,110			3,239
Employee compensation growth		5.5	%		6.8	%		4.9	%		4.2	%	+/- 1 percentage point change in the 2024 employee compensation growth equals up to +/- $30 million
Provincial sales tax		10,762			10,708			11,196			11,647
Provincial sales tax base growth (fiscal year)		3.8	%		-2.0	%		4.6	%		4.1	%	+/- 1 percentage point change in the
Calendar Year nominal expenditure													2024 consumer expenditure growth
Consumer expenditures on durable goods		0.8	%		1.2	%		1.7	%		3.4	%	equals up to +/- $25 to $30 million
Consumer expenditures on goods and services		5.2	%		5.3	%		4.7	%		4.2	%
Business investment		1.2	%		2.0	%		6.7	%		6.4	%
Other		3.2	%		3.7	%		6.8	%		4.8	%
Components of Provincial sales tax revenue													+/- 1 percentage point change in the
Consolidated Revenue Fund		10,754			10,700			11,188			11,639		2024 business investment growth
BC Transportation Financing Authority		8			8			8			8		equals up to +/- $10 to $20 million
Fuel and carbon taxes		3,585			3,534			3,983			4,425
Calendar Year
Real GDP		0.8	%		1.0	%		2.0	%		2.3	%
Gasoline volumes		-1.0	%		-1.0	%		-2.0	%		-3.0	%
Diesel volumes		2.0	%		2.0	%		2.0	%		-2.0	%
Natural gas volumes		1.0	%		1.0	%		-1.0	%		-2.0	%
Carbon tax rates (April 1)
Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions ($/tonne)		80			80			95			110
Natural gas (cents/gigajoule)		397.28	¢		397.28	¢		471.77	¢		546.26	¢
Gasoline (cents/litre)		17.61	¢		17.61	¢		20.91	¢		24.22	¢
Light fuel oil (cents/litre)		20.74	¢		20.74	¢		24.62	¢		28.51	¢
Components of revenue *
Consolidated Revenue Fund		541			500			491			483
BC Transit		18			18			18			17
BC Transportation Financing Authority		461			451			447			435
Fuel tax revenue		1,020			969			956			935
Carbon tax revenue		2,565			2,565			3,027			3,490
Property taxes		3,779			3,850			4,074			4,281
Calendar Year
Consumer Price Index		2.7	%		2.7	%		2.2	%		2.0	%	+/- 1 percentage point change in 2024 new
Housing starts (units)		46,107			46,711			48,504			50,023		construction & inflation growth equals up to +/-
Home owner grants (fiscal year)		926			919			938			956		$30 million in residential property taxation revenue
Components of revenue
Residential (net of home owner grants)		1,625			1,621			1,720			1,813
Speculation and vacancy		90			86			90			90
Non-residential		1,630			1,686			1,772			1,854		+/-1% change in 2024 total
Rural area		153			158			163			171		business property assessment
Police		40			43			45			48		value equals up to +/- $20 million
BC Assessment Authority		115			119			121			123		in non-residential property
BC Transit		126			137			163			182		taxation revenue
Other taxes		3,411			3,421			3,717			3,923
Calendar Year
Population		2.8	%		3.0	%		1.2	%		1.2	%
Residential sales value		12.7	%		4.5	%		15.9	%		9.1	%
Real GDP		0.8	%		1.0	%		2.0	%		2.3	%
Nominal GDP		3.3	%		3.5	%		4.3	%		4.6	%
Components of revenue													+/- 1% change to 2024 residential
Property transfer		2,055			2,080			2,334			2,530		sales value equals +/- $20 million
Additional Property Transfer Tax (included in above)		40			40			40			40		in property transfer revenue,
Tobacco		510			470			470			470		depending on property values
Insurance premium		835			860			870			880
Tax targeting home flipping activity		11			11			43			43

60  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix - Fiscal Plan Update

Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)

Revenue Source and Assumptions     ($ millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			2024/25 Sensitivities
Energy, sales of Crown land tenures,  metals,   minerals and other *		1,951			1,792			2,319			2,563
Natural gas price													+/- $0.25 change in the natural gas
Plant inlet, $C/gigajoule		1.26			0.75			1.85			2.21		price equals +/- $60 to $120 million,
Sumas, $US/MMBtu		2.54			1.99			2.90			3.28		including impacts on production
Natural gas production volumes													volumes and royalty program
Billions of cubic metres		72.7			74.8			75.8			77.9		credits, but excluding any
Petajoules		3,024			3,097			3,140			3,228		changes from natural gas liquids
Annual per cent change		3.2	%		5.4	%		1.4	%		2.8	%	revenue (e.g. butane, pentanes)
Oil price ($US/bbl at Cushing, OK)		77.34			80.31			76.39			75.94		Sensitivities can also vary
													significantly at different price levels
Auctioned land base (000 hectares)		20			20			20			20
Average bid price/hectare ($)		200			200			200			300		+/- 1% change in natural gas
Cash sales of Crown land tenures		4			4			4			6		volumes equals +/- $10 million
Metallurgical coal price ($US/tonne, fob Australia)		243			256			234			233		in natural gas royalties
Copper price ($US/lb)		3.88			4.37			4.37			4.39
Annual electricity volumes set by treaty (million mega-watt hours)		3.8			3.0			2.6			2.6		+/- 1 cent change in the exchange rate equals +/-$10 million in natural gas royalties
Mid-Columbia electricity price		93.37			79.15			87.99			87.01
($US/mega-watt hour)													+/- $10/bbl change in petroleum price
													equals +/- $5 million in petroleum royalties
Exchange rate (US¢/C$, calendar year)		73.6			73.0			73.5			76.3
													+/- 13% change in natural gas liquids
Components of revenue													(equivalent to +/- $10/bbl oil price) prices
Bonus bid cash sales		4			4			4			6		equals +/- $110 to $150 million in natural gas
Fees and rentals		36			38			36			36		liquids royalties
Total bonus bids, fees and rentals		40			42			40			42
Natural gas royalties after deductions and allowances		754			705			1,356			1,676		+/- 10% change in the average Mid-Columbia
Petroleum royalties		50			53			46			41		electricity price equals +/- $50 million
Columbia River Treaty electricity sales		484			358			356			357
BC Energy Regulator fees and levies		75			74			76			77		+/- US$20 change in the average
Coal, metals and other minerals revenue:													metallurgical coal price
Coal tenures		8			8			8			8		equals +/- $50 to $80 million
Net coal mineral tax		355			320			216			171
Net metals and other minerals tax		55			102			107			92		In accordance with updated accounting
Recoveries relating to revenue sharing payments to First Nations		112			112			96			81		standards, bonus bid revenue is recognized in full at the time an authorization for the sale of
Miscellaneous mining revenue		18			18			18			18		Crown land tenure is awarded.
Total coal, metals and other minerals revenue		548			560			445			370
Gross royalties prior to deductions and allowances
Gross natural gas revenue		392			235			991			1,235
Gross natural gas liquids royalties revenue		771			755			814			857
Royalty programs and infrastructure credits
Deep drilling		(131	)		(84	)		(122	)		(51	)
Road, pipeline, Clean Growth Infrastructure Royalty and other infrastructure programs		(100	)		(113	)		(158	)		(121	)
Total		(231	)		(197	)		(280	)		(172	)
Implicit average natural gas royalty rate		13.6	%		32.8	%		23.4	%		21.3	%
Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits.
*Reflects information as at August 8, 2024.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  61

Appendix - Fiscal Plan Update

Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)

Revenue Source and Assumptions   ($millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			2024/25 Sensitivities
Forests *		689			586			675			742
Prices (calendar year average)													+/- US$50 change in SPF price equals +/- $100
SPF 2x4 ($US/thousand board feet)		425			390			400			425		to $125 million
Crown harvest volumes (million cubic metres)
Interior		24.0			24.0			24.0			24.0		+/- 10% change in Interior harvest volumes
Coast		8.0			8.0			8.0			8.0		equals +/- $40 to $50 million
Total		32.0			32.0			32.0			32.0
B.C. Timber Sales (included in above)		4.0			4.0			4.9			5.9		+/- 10% change in Coastal harvest volumes
													equals +/- $10 to $20 million
Stumpage rates ($Cdn/cubic metre)
Total stumpage rates		18.06			15.63			17.67			19.71		+/- 1 cent change in exchange rate
													equals +/- $20 to $30 million in
Components of revenue													stumpage revenue
Timber tenures (net of revenue sharing recoveries)		206			128			209			252
Recoveries relating to revenue sharing payments to First Nations		177			177			124			94
B.C. Timber Sales		214			214			251			304		The above sensitivities relate
Logging tax		50			25			50			50		to stumpage revenue only.
Other CRF revenue		31			31			31			31
Other recoveries		11			11			10			11
* Reflects information as at August 6, 2024
Other natural resource		510			473			528			600
Components of revenue
Water rental and licences*		437			400			455			527		+/- 5% change in water power production
Recoveries		50			50			50			50		equals +/- $20 to $25 million
Angling and hunting permits and licences		10			10			10			10
Recoveries		13			13			13			13
* Water rentals for power purposes are indexed to Consumer Price Index.
Total natural resource recoveries relating to revenue sharing payments to First Nations		376			351			265			217		Revenue sharing from natural gas royalties, mineral tax, electricity sales under the Columbia River Treaty and forest stumpage revenues.
Other revenue		11,400			11,886			11,784			11,880
Components of revenue
Fees and licences
Motor vehicle licences and permits		629			652			662			673
International student health fees		80			90			80			80
Other Consolidated Revenue Fund		484			512			502			506
Summary consolidation eliminations		(15	)		(15	)		(15	)		(15	)
Ministry vote recoveries		285			285			114			115
Taxpayer-supported Crown corporations		219			222			233			239
Post-secondary education fees		2,937			2,914			2,984			3,069
Other healthcare-related fees		584			575			582			588
School Districts		265			266			282			298
Investment earnings
Consolidated Revenue Fund		175			385			155			155
Fiscal agency loans & sinking funds earnings		1,159			1,089			1,198			1,259
Summary consolidation eliminations		(202	)		(159	)		(123	)		(122	)
Taxpayer-supported Crown corporations		43			52			45			46
SUCH sector agencies		249			300			310			293
Sales of goods and services
SUCH sector agencies		1,087			1,109			1,161			1,218
BC Infrastructure Benefits Inc		255			258			300			149
Other taxpayer-supported Crown corporations		127			144			135			144
Miscellaneous		3,039			3,207			3,179			3,185

 

62  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix - Fiscal Plan Update

Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)

Revenue Source and Assumptions   ($ millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			2024/25 Sensitivities
Health and social transfers		9,475			9,498			9,900			10,345
National Cash Transfers		52,081			52,081			54,685			57,419
Canada Health Transfer (CHT)
Annual growth		5.4	%		5.4	%		5.0	%		5.0	%
Canada Social Transfer (CST)		16,909			16,909			17,416			17,939
B.C.'s share of national population (July 1)		13.74	%		13.77	%		13.73	%		13.73	%	+/- 0.1 percentage point change in B.C.'s population share equals +/- $70 million
B.C. health and social transfers revenue
CHT		7,153			7,170			7,509			7,882
CST		2,322			2,328			2,391			2,463
Prior-year adjustments:
CHT		-
CST		-
Other federal contributions		4,971			5,063			5,100			4,438
Components of revenue
Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements		1,013			985			822			784
B.C.'s share of the federal cannabis excise tax		110			110			110			110
Other Consolidated Revenue Fund		110			117			119			121
Vote Recoveries:
Labour Market Development Agreement		296			296			296			296
Labour Market and Skills Training Program		98			98			98			98
Home Care		82			82			82			82
Mental Health		82			82			82			82
Additional health funding		326			326			326			-
Long Term Care		-			76			108			111
Child Care		1,036			1,036			1,161			1,161
Child Safety, Family Support, Children in Care and with special needs		87			87			87			87
Public Transit		229			229			245			29
Local government services and transfers		197			197			232			117
Other recoveries		153			153			153			153
Taxpayer-supported Crown corporations		368			369			347			364
Post-secondary institutions		652			676			690			701
Other SUCH sector agencies		132			144			142			142
Service delivery agency direct revenue		9,519			9,802			9,983			10,053
School districts		689			732			741			755
Post-secondary institutions		5,225			5,257			5,438			5,585
Health authorities and hospital societies		1,306			1,463			1,404			1,417
BC Transportation Financing Authority		579			552			554			547
Other service delivery agencies		1,720			1,798			1,846			1,749
Commercial Crown corporation net income		3,313			3,281			3,674			3,705
BC Hydro		712			712			712			712		Sensitivities impacts shown below are before regulatory account transfers
Reservoir water inflows		100	%		79	%		100	%		100	%	+/-1% in hydro generation equals +/- $55 million
Mean gas price		5.58			3.98			4.81			4.98		+/-1% equals +/-$0.1 million
(Sumas, $US/MMbtu – BC Hydro forecast based on NYMEX forward selling prices)
Electricity prices (Mid-C, $US/MWh)		87.41			68.30			79.44			75.04		+/-1% change in electricity/gas trade income equals +/- $5 million
ICBC		-			-			400			400
Vehicle growth		1.3	%		1.3	%		1.8	%		1.8	%	+/-1% equals +/-$61 million
Current claims cost percentage change		10.8	%		21.4	%		6.8	%		6.7	%	+/-1% equals +/-$50 million
Unpaid claims balance ($ billions)		10.4			9.6			8.7			8.3		+/-1% equals +/-$96 to $108 million
Investment return		2.3	%		2.3	%		4.8	%		4.6	%	+/-1% return equals +/-$171 to $181 million
Loss ratio		87.9	%		87.9	%		86.6	%		86.5	%

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  63

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A2 Natural Gas Price Forecasts — 2024/25 to 2026/27 

Private sector forecasts (calendar year)							Adjusted to fiscal years and $C/gigajoule at plant inlet
	2024		2025		2026		2024/25		2025/26		2026/27
GLJ Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		2.74		3.75		4.16		1.59		2.23		2.49
Sproule Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (June 30, 2024)		2.48		3.75		4.00		1.26		2.17		2.29
McDaniel Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		2.43		3.32		3.90		1.10		1.74		2.17
Deloitte Henry Hub US$/Mcf (June 30, 2024)		2.55		3.55		4.15		1.23		1.88		2.30
GLJ Alberta AECO-C Spot CDN$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		1.60		3.00		3.83		0.75		1.84		2.57
Sproule Alberta AECO-C Spot CDN$/MMBtu (June 30, 2024)		1.70		3.48		3.95		0.92		2.20		2.54
McDaniel AECO-C Spot C$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		1.75		3.06		3.90		0.82		1.90		2.50
Deloitte AECO-C Spot C$/Mcf (June 30, 2024)		1.51		3.05		3.90		0.58		1.79		2.37
GLJ Sumas Spot US$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		2.58		3.65		4.06		2.11		2.94		3.21
Sproule Sumas Spot CDN$/MMBtu (June 30, 2024)		3.12		5.42		5.92		1.84		3.42		3.80
GLJ BC Spot Plant Gate CDN$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		1.02		2.63		3.46		0.74		1.87		2.59
Sproule BC Station 2 CDN$/MMBtu (June 30, 2024)		1.50		3.38		3.84		0.88		2.19		2.52
McDaniel BC Avg Plant Gate C$MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		1.23		2.55		3.38		0.73		1.79		2.38
Deloitte BC Station 2 C$MMBtu (June 30, 2024)		2.75		2.75		3.60		0.64		1.89		2.46
GLJ Midwest Chicago US$/MMBtu (Jul 1, 2024)		3.60		4.01		4.01		2.14		2.99		3.26
Sproule Alliance Plant Gate CDN$/MMBtu (June 30, 2024)		2.99		4.91		5.18		2.20		3.51		3.71
EIA Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jul 2024)		2.49		3.27				1.02
TD Economics Henry Hub Futures US$/MMBtu (May 2024)		2.41		3.10				0.82
Scotiabank Group Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jun 2024)		2.60		3.75				1.42
BMO Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (June 2024)		2.50		3.25				1.10
InSite Petroleum Consultants Ltd BC Spot C$/Mcf (June 2024)		1.75		3.35		3.95		0.90		2.11		2.56
NYMEX Forward Market converted to Plant Inlet CDN$/GJ (Jul 8, 2024)								0.97		1.88		2.04
Average all minus high/low								1.16		2.21		2.65
Average one forecast per consultant minus high/low								0.88		1.96		2.52
Natural gas royalty price forecast								0.75		1.85		2.21

GLJ: Gilbert Laustsen Jung Petroleum Consultants Ltd     US EIA: US Energy Information Administration    AECO: Alberta Energy Company   

Deloitte/AJM: Deloitte L.L.P acquired Ashton Jenkins Mann Petroleum Consultants     McDaniel: McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd

64  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Natural Gas Prices

 

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  65

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A3 Material Assumptions — Expense

Ministry Programs and Assumptions ($ millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		2024/25 Sensitivities
Attorney General		877		877		878		880
New cases filed/processed (# for all courts)		235,000		242,000		242,000		242,000	The number of criminal cases proceeded on by the provincial and federal Crown (including appeals to higher courts in BC), the number of civil and family litigation cases, the number of violation tickets disputed, and the number of municipal bylaw tickets disputed which would go to court for resolution.
Crown Proceeding Act (CPA)		25		25		25		25	CPA forecast is subject to significant volatility due to unpredictable nature of timing and value of court settlements, judgments and pending litigation accruals.
Children and Family Development		2,121		2,121		2,117		2,117
Average children-in-care caseload (#)		4,822		4,837		4,828		4,798	The average number of children-in-care is decreasing as a result of ministry efforts to keep children in family settings where safe and feasible.
Average annual residential cost per child in care ($)		154,040		166,454		187,367		192,144	The average cost per child in care is projected to increase based on the higher cost of contracted residential services and an increasing acuity of need for children in care. A 1% increase in the cost per case or a 1% increase in the average caseload will affect expenditures by $4.1 million (excluding Indigenous CFS Agencies).
Education and Child Care		9,615		9,615		9,667		9,667
Public School Enrolment (# of FTEs)		596,212		614,894		611,416		606,213	Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 29, 2023 for the 2023/24 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2024. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model.
School age (K—12)		572,954		591,046		587,616		582,484
Continuing Education		786		772		772		772
Distributed Learning (online)		14,063		13,965		13,917		13,846
Summer		6,305		7,036		7,036		7,036
Adults		2,105		2,076		2,076		2,076
Emergency Management and Climate Readiness		116		116		125		125
Emergency and Disaster Management Act		39		39		39		39	Emergency disaster relief is unpredictable. There are a number of factors that could impact the timing of delivering recovery projects resulting from the Emergency Events.
Forests		851		1,504		871		888
BC Timber Sales		204		204		219		236	Targets can be impacted by changes to actual inventory costs incurred. There is a lag of approximately 1.5 years between when inventory costs are incurred and when they are expensed. Volume harvested can also impact targets. For example, if volume harvested is less than projected in any year, then capitalized expenses will also be reduced in that year.
Fire Management		233		886		238		238	Costs are driven by length of season and severity of weather conditions, severity of fires, proportion of interface fires and size of fires. Costs have ranged from a low of $47 million in 2006 to a high of $1.094 billion in 2023/24 (Fire season 2023).

 

66  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A3 Material Assumptions — Expense (continued)

Ministry Programs and Assumptions	Budget Estimate		Updated Forecast		Plan		Plan
($ millions unless otherwise specified)		2024 /25		2024 /25		2025 /26		2026/27	2024/25 Sensitivities
Health		32,857		32,857		33,752		34,594
Pharmacare		1,801		1,801		1,788		1,788	A 1% change in PharmaCare utilization or prices affects costs by approximately $18 million.
Medical Services Plan (MSP)		7,609		7,609		7,700		7,849	A 1% increase in volume of services provided by fee-for-service physicians affects costs by approximately $47 million.
Regional Services		23,020		23,020		23,851		24,545	A 1% increase in volume of services provided by Health Authorities is estimated to be $240 million.
Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills		3,371		3,371		3,414		3,414
Student spaces in public institutions		207,882		207,882		208,791		208,847	Student enrolments may fluctuate due to a number of factors including economic changes and labour market needs.
Public Safety and Solicitor General		1,084		1,084		1,086		1,088
Policing, Victim Services and Corrections		947		947		949		950	Policing, Victim Services and Corrections costs are sensitive to the volume and severity of criminal activity, the number of inmate beds occupied and the number of offenders under community supervision.
Social Development and Poverty Reduction		5,176		5,176		5,241		5,241
Temporary Assistance annual average caseload (#)		53,400		66,290		52,700		52,700	The expected to work caseload is sensitive to fluctuations in economic and employment trends.
									Costs are driven by changes to cost per case and caseload. Cost per case fluctuations result from changes in the needed supports required by clients, as well as caseload composition.
Disability Assistance annual average caseload (#)		125,700		126,083		127,300		127,300	The caseload for persons with disabilities is sensitive to the aging of the population and longer life expectancy for individuals with disabilities. Cost per case fluctuations are driven primarily by earnings exemptions which is dependent on the level of income earned by clients.
Adult Community Living:
Developmental Disabilities Programs									The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs.
Average caseload (#)		25,060		25,100		25,560		26,460
Average cost per client ($)		59,800		61,300		60,200		58,300
Personal Supports Initiative (PSI)
Average caseload (#)		3,510		3,500		3,650		3,950
Average cost per client ($)		16,100		18,100		16,200		15,000

 

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  67

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A3 Material Assumptions — Expense (continued)

Ministry Programs and Assumptions ($ millions unless otherwise specified)	Budget Estimate 2024/25		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		2024/25 Sensitivities
Tax Transfers		3,492		3,501		3,663		3,763
Individuals		2,223.0		2,203.0		2,281.0		2,288.0
Climate Action Tax Credit		1,022.0		1,002.0		1,191.0		1,257.0	These tax transfers are now expensed as required
BC Family Benefit		478.8		478.8		490.0		490.0	under generally accepted accounting principles.
BC Family Benefit Bonus (temporary increase)*		186.0		186.0		62.0		-
Renter's Tax Credit		279.0		279.0		281.0		284.0
Sales Tax		50.0		50.0		50.0		50.0
Small Business Venture Capital		40.0		40.0		40.0		40.0
BC Senior's Home Renovation		3.0		3.0		3.0		3.0
Other tax transfers to individuals		164.2		164.2		164.0		164.0
									Changes in 2023 tax transfers will result in one¬time
Corporations		1,269.0		1,298.0		1,382.0		1,475.0	effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an
Film and Television		162.5		162.5		172.5		182.5	additional base change in 2024/25. Production services
Production Services		746.8		776.3		845.0		923.5	tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is
Scientific Research & Experimental									influenced by several factors including delay in filing
Development		116.3		116.3		121.3		126.3	returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and
Interactive Digital Media		140.0		140.0		140.0		140.0	changes in the exchange rates.
Mining Exploration		60.0		60.0		60.0		60.0
Other tax transfers to corporations		43.4		42.9		43.2		42.7
Prior-year adjustment (included above)*
Individuals				-
Corporations				5.8
2023 Tax-year		2023 Assumptions
Tax Transfers		2,876.0		2,829.0
Individuals		1,578.0		1,531.0
Corporations		1,298.0		1,298.0
Film and Television		160.0		160.0
Production Services		785.0		785.0
Scientific Research & Experimental Development		110.0		110.0
Interactive Digital Media		140.0		140.0
Other tax transfers to corporations		103.0		103.0

*BC Family Benefit Bonus is a temporary increase to the BC Family Benefit for the 2024/25 benefit year with payments starting July 2024.
*2024/25 tax transfer forecast incorporates adjustments relating to prior years.
Management of Public Funds and Debt	1,976		2,320		2,651		3,209
Interest rates for new provincial borrowing:									Full year impact on MoPD on interest costs of a 1%
Short-term	4.06	%	4.30	%	3.16	%	2.85	%	change in interest rates equals $10.7 million; $100 million
Long-term	4.27	%	4.42	%	4.34	%	4.34	%	increase in debt level equals $4.4 million.
CDN/US exchange rate (cents)	135.1		137.7		134.4		130.6
Service delivery agency net spending	9,902		10,063		10,568		10,992
School districts	662		696		706		716
Post-secondary institutions	5,079		5,023		5,232		5,412		Agency expenses, net of Provincial funding. These are
Health authorities and hospital societies	1,241		1,469		1,338		1,361		mainly funded through revenue from other sources.
BC Transportation Financing Authority	2,270		2,031		2,336		2,475
BC Infrastructure Benefits Inc	254		258		300		149
Other service delivery agencies	396		586		656		879

68  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A4 Operating Statement – 2017/18 to 2026/27 1
($ millions)	Actual 2017/18			Actual 2018/19			Actual 2019/20			Actual 2020/21			Actual 2021/22			Actual 2022/23			Actual 2023/24			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			Average annual change
																															(per cent)
Revenue		51,940			56,950			58,493			62,047			72,391			81,790			79,623			81,770			84,355			87,069			5.9
Expense		(51,744	)		(55,634	)		(59,024	)		(67,662	)		(71,129	)		(80,834	)		(84,658	)		(90,749	)		(91,055	)		(93,164	)		6.8
Surplus (deficit)		196			1,316			(531	)		(5,615	)		1,262			956			(5,035	)		(8,979	)		(6,700	)		(6,095	)
Per cent of nominal GDP: 2
Surplus (deficit)		0.1			0.4			-0.2			-1.8			0.4			0.2			-1.2			-2.1			-1.5			-1.3
Per cent of revenue:
Surplus (deficit)		0.4			2.3			-0.9			-9.0			1.7			1.2			-6.3			-11.0			-7.9			-7.0
Per capita ($): 3
Surplus (deficit)		40			262			(104	)		(1,085	)		241			178			(912	)		(1,580	)		(1,165	)		(1,047	)

¹ Figures have been restated to reflect government current accounting policies.

² Surplus (deficit) as a per cent of nominal GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 amounts divided by nominal GDP for the 2024 calendar year).

³ Per capita revenue and expense is calculated using July1 population (e.g. 2024/25 amounts divided by population on July1, 2024).

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  69

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A5 Revenue by Source – 2017/18 to 2026/27

																					Updated						Average
	Actual			Actual			Actual			Actual			Actual		Actual			Actual			Forecast		Plan		Plan		annual
($ millions)	2017/18			2018/19			2019/20			2020/21			2021/22		2022/23			2023/24			2024/25		2025/26		2026/27		change
																											(per cent)
Taxation revenue:
Personal income		8,923			11,364			10,657			11,118			13,704		17,268			16,443			17,118		17,867		18,741		8.6
Corporate income		4,165			5,180			5,011			4,805			5,053		9,156			6,085			7,598		6,428		6,540		5.1
Employer health		-			464			1,897			2,156			2,443		2,720			2,886			2,962		3,110		3,239		n/a
Sales		7,131			7,369			7,374			7,694			8,731		9,818			10,330			10,708		11,196		11,647		5.6
Fuel		1,010			1,015			1,008			936			1,022		1,021			982			969		956		935		-0.9
Carbon		1,255			1,465			1,682			1,683			2,011		2,161			2,642			2,565		3,027		3,490		12.0
Tobacco		727			781			729			711			708		531			477			470		470		470		-4.7
Property		2,367			2,617			2,608			2,313			3,012		3,253			3,605			3,850		4,074		4,281		6.8
Property transfer		2,141			1,826			1,609			2,098			3,327		2,293			1,993			2,080		2,334		2,530		1.9
Insurance premium and other taxes		602			633			691			652			706		804			853			871		913		923		4.9
		28,321			32,714			33,266			34,166			40,717		49,025			46,296			49,191		50,375		52,796		7.2
Natural resource revenue:
Natural gas royalties		161			199			118			196			920		2,255			823			705		1,356		1,676		29.7
Bonus bids, rents on drilling rights and leases		196			106			60			45			45		41			42			42		40		42		-15.7
Columbia River Treaty		111			202			119			117			231		437			448			358		356		357		13.9
Other energy and minerals		619			557			386			191			795		979			637			687		567		488		-2.6
Forests		1,065			1,406			988			1,304			1,893		1,887			657			586		675		742		-3.9
Other resources		463			465			432			433			499		518			536			473		528		600		2.9
		2,615			2,935			2,103			2,286			4,383		6,117			3,143			2,851		3,522		3,905		4.6
Other revenue:
Medical Services Plan premiums		2,266			1,360			1,063			(4	)		1		(1	)		(1	)		-		-		-		n/a
Post-secondary education fees		2,034			2,275			2,451			2,418			2,536		2,651			2,840			2,914		2,984		3,069		4.7
Other health-care related fees		429			441			475			372			417		519			591			575		582		588		3.6
Motor vehicle licences and permits		557			563			576			581			622		621			630			652		662		673		2.1
Other fees and licences		963			949			1,004			970			1,025		1,146			1,217			1,360		1,196		1,223		2.7
Investment earnings		1,101			1,243			1,263			1,264			1,306		1,314			1,708			1,667		1,585		1,631		4.5
Sales of goods and services		1,133			1,164			1,162			741			1,059		1,396			1,548			1,511		1,596		1,511		3.3
Miscellaneous		2,410			2,249			2,676			2,395			2,851		3,049			3,440			3,207		3,179		3,185		3.1
		10,893			10,244			10,670			8,737			9,817		10,695			11,973			11,886		11,784		11,880		1.0
Contributions from the federal government:
Canada Health Transfer		4,994			5,182			5,523			5,701			6,431		6,432			7,117			7,170		7,509		7,882		5.2
Canada Social Transfer		1,854			1,908			1,971			2,042			2,110		2,174			2,273			2,328		2,391		2,463		3.2
Other cost shared agreements		2,207			1,962			2,041			5,151			3,439		3,921			4,344			5,063		5,100		4,438		8.1
		9,055			9,052			9,535			12,894			11,980		12,527			13,734			14,561		15,000		14,783		5.6
Commercial Crown corporation net income:
BC Hydro 1		683			(428	)		705			688			668		360			323			712		712		712		0.5
Liquor Distribution Branch		1,119			1,104			1,107			1,161			1,189		1,199			1,148			1,090		1,032		1,020		-1.0
BC Lottery Corporation 2		1,391			1,405			1,336			420			1,211		1,584			1,429			1,323		1,336		1,377		-0.1
ICBC		(1,327	)		(1,153	)		(376	)		1,528			2,286		131			1,399			-		400		400		-187.5
Other		140			127			147			167			140		152			178			156		194		196		3.8
Accounting adjustment 1		(950	)		950			-			-			-		-			-			-		-		-		n/a
		1,056			2,005			2,919			3,964			5,494		3,426			4,477			3,281		3,674		3,705		15.0
Total revenue		51,940			56,950			58,493			62,047			72,391		81,790			79,623			81,770		84,355		87,069		5.9

¹ BC Hydro's loss for 2018/19 includes a write-off of a regulatory account. At the summary level, the Province recognized a $950 million adjustment in fiscal 2017/18 with respect to BC Hydro's deferred regulatory accounts.

² Net of federal government payments and beginning in 2021/22, is also net of payments to the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership in accordance with section 14.3 of the Gaming Control Act (B.C.).

70  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A6 Revenue by Source Supplementary Information – 2017/18 to 2026/27 1
	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19		Actual 2019/20		Actual 2020/21		Actual 2021/22		Actual 2022/23		Actual 2023/24		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		Average annual change
																					(per cent)
Per cent of nominal GDP: 2
Taxation and Medical Services Plan premiums		10.8		11.5		11.1		11.1		11.4		12.4		11.3		11.6		11.4		11.4		0.6
Taxation		10.0		11.0		10.8		11.1		11.4		12.4		11.3		11.6		11.4		11.4		1.4
Medical Services Plan premiums		0.8		0.5		0.3		-		-		-				-		-		-		n/a
Natural resources		0.9		1.0		0.7		0.7		1.2		1.5		0.8		0.7		0.8		0.8		-1.0
Other		3.9		3.4		3.5		2.8		2.8		2.7		2.9		2.8		2.7		2.6		-4.4
Other excluding
Medical Services Plan premiums		3.1		3.0		3.1		2.8		2.8		2.7		2.9		2.8		2.7		2.6		-1.9
Contributions from the federal government		3.2		3.0		3.1		4.2		3.4		3.2		3.4		3.4		3.4		3.2		0.0
Commercial Crown corporation net income		0.4		0.7		0.9		1.3		1.5		0.9		1.1		0.8		0.8		0.8		8.8
Total revenue		18.4		19.2		18.9		20.2		20.3		20.7		19.4		19.3		19.1		18.8		0.2
Growth rates (per cent):
Taxation		4.5		15.5		1.7		2.7		19.2		20.4		-5.6		6.3		2.4		4.8		n/a
Natural resources		-3.5		12.2		-28.3		8.7		91.7		39.6		-48.6		-9.3		23.5		10.9		n/a
Other		-0.5		-6.0		4.2		-18.1		12.4		8.9		11.9		-0.7		-0.9		0.8		n/a
Other excluding
Medical Services Plan premiums		2.8		3.0		8.1		-9.0		12.3		9.0		11.9		-0.7		-0.9		0.8		n/a
Contributions from the federal government		10.9		0.0		5.3		35.2		-7.1		4.6		9.6		6.0		3.0		-1.4		n/a
Commercial Crown corporation net income		-58.2		89.9		45.6		35.8		38.6		-37.6		30.7		-26.7		12.0		0.8		n/a
Total revenue		1.0		9.6		2.7		6.1		16.7		13.0		-2.6		2.7		3.2		3.2		n/a
Per capita ($): 3
Taxation		5,740		6,515		6,509		6,601		7,790		9,153		8,388		8,655		8,757		9,067		5.2
Natural resources		530		585		411		442		839		1,142		569		502		612		671		2.7
Other		2,208		2,040		2,088		1,688		1,878		1,997		2,169		2,091		2,048		2,040		-0.9
Other excluding
Medical Services Plan premiums		1,748		1,769		1,880		1,689		1,878		1,997		2,170		2,091		2,048		2,040		1.7
Contributions from the federal government		1,835		1,803		1,866		2,491		2,292		2,339		2,488		2,562		2,608		2,539		3.7
Commercial Crown corporation net income		214		399		571		766		1,051		640		811		577		639		636		12.9
Total revenue		10,527		11,342		11,444		11,987		13,850		15,270		14,427		14,387		14,664		14,953		4.0
Real Per Capita Revenue (2023 $) 4		12,732		13,356		13,169		13,689		15,386		15,868		14,427		14,004		13,963		13,955		1.0
Growth rate (per cent)		8.1		4.9		-1.4		4.0		12.4		3.1		-9.1		-2.9		-0.3		-0.1		1.9

¹ Numbers may not add due to rounding.

² Revenue as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 revenue divided by nominal GDP for the 2024 calendar year).

³ Per capita revenue is calculated using July1 population (e.g. 2024/25 revenue divided by population on July1, 2024).

⁴ Revenue is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2024 CPI for 2024/25 revenue).

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  71

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A7 Expense by Function – 2017/18 to 2026/27 ^1,2

($ millions)	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19		Actual 2019/20		Actual 2020/21		Actual 2021/22		Actual 2022/23		Actual 2023/24		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		Average annual change
																					(per cent)
Function:
Health:
Medical Services Plan		4,623		4,861		5,013		5,145		5,776		6,006		7,071		7,836		7,927		8,076		6.4
Pharmacare		1,400		1,494		1,517		1,501		1,579		1,711		1,906		2,101		2,088		2,088		4.5
Regional services		14,101		15,002		16,054		18,290		19,574		21,715		25,261		25,607		26,418		26,790		7.4
Other healthcare expenses		810		800		872		677		662		890		625		1,078		1,056		1,030		2.7
Total health		20,934		22,157		23,456		25,613		27,591		30,322		34,863		36,622		37,489		37,984		6.8
Education:
Elementary and secondary		6,919		7,255		7,584		7,444		8,085		8,585		9,285		9,782		9,851		9,868		4.0
Post-secondary		6,002		6,398		6,846		6,872		7,357		7,517		8,403		8,929		9,187		9,489		5.2
Other education expenses		176		442		312		630		361		891		791		461		464		463		11.3
Total education		13,097		14,095		14,742		14,946		15,803		16,993		18,479		19,172		19,502		19,820		4.7
Social services:
Social assistance		1,988		2,202		2,342		3,141		2,910		3,157		3,009		3,359		3,383		3,383		6.1
Child welfare		1,507		1,652		1,940		2,226		2,254		3,168		3,941		4,260		4,268		4,206		12.1
Low income tax credit transfers		239		414		435		1,131		754		1,746		733		1,052		1,241		1,307		20.8
Community living and other services		1,003		1,075		1,170		1,291		1,350		1,581		1,601		1,787		1,834		1,835		6.9
Total social services		4,737		5,343		5,887		7,789		7,268		9,652		9,284		10,458		10,726		10,731		9.5
Protection of persons and property		1,930		2,004		2,126		2,258		2,937		3,483		3,101		2,556		2,574		2,583		3.3
Transportation		1,931		2,021		2,126		3,362		4,453		3,320		2,379		2,738		2,786		2,717		3.9
Natural resources & economic development		3,374		3,825		3,779		4,191		5,213		6,284		6,704		5,171		4,312		4,245		2.6
Other		1,574		1,831		2,524		2,862		3,082		5,736		4,215		3,707		3,657		3,509		9.3
Contingencies - general programs and CleanBC		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		3,885		2,020		1,730		n/a
Priority spending initiatives and caseload pressures		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1,000		2,000		n/a
General government		1,544		1,674		1,657		3,919		2,040		2,325		2,341		2,067		1,981		1,984		2.8
Debt servicing		2,623		2,684		2,727		2,722		2,742		2,719		3,292		4,373		5,008		5,861		9.3
Total expense		51,744		55,634		59,024		67,662		71,129		80,834		84,658		90,749		91,055		93,164
Per cent of operating expense:
Health		40.5		39.8		39.7		37.9		38.8		37.5		41.2		40.4		41.2		40.8		0.1
Education		25.3		25.3		25.0		22.1		22.2		21.0		21.8		21.1		21.4		21.3		-1.9
Social services		9.2		9.6		10.0		11.5		10.2		11.9		11.0		11.5		11.8		11.5		2.6
Protection of persons and property		3.7		3.6		3.6		3.3		4.1		4.3		3.7		2.8		2.8		2.8		-3.2
Transportation		3.7		3.6		3.6		5.0		6.3		4.1		2.8		3.0		3.1		2.9		-2.7
Natural resources & economic development		6.5		6.9		6.4		6.2		7.3		7.8		7.9		5.7		4.7		4.6		-3.9
Other		3.0		3.3		4.3		4.2		4.3		7.1		5.0		4.1		4.0		3.8		2.4
Contingencies - general programs and CleanBC		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		4.3		2.2		1.9		n/a
Priority spending initiatives and caseload pressures		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1.1		2.1		n/a
General government		3.0		3.0		2.8		5.8		2.9		2.9		2.8		2.3		2.2		2.1		-3.7
Debt servicing		5.1		4.8		4.6		4.0		3.9		3.4		3.9		4.8		5.5		6.3		2.4
Operating expense		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0

¹ Figures reflect government accounting policies used in the 2023/24 Public Accounts audited financial statements.
² Numbers may not add due to rounding.

72  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A8 Expense by Function Supplementary Information – 2017/18 to 2026/27 ¹

	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19		Actual 2019/20		Actual 2020/21		Actual 2021/22		Actual 2022/23		Actual 2023/24		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		Average annual change
																					(per cent)
Per cent of nominal GDP: 2
Health		7.4		7.5		7.6		8.3		7.8		7.7		8.5		8.6		8.5		8.2		1.1
Education		4.6		4.7		4.8		4.9		4.4		4.3		4.5		4.5		4.4		4.3		-0.9
Social services		1.7		1.8		1.9		2.5		2.0		2.4		2.3		2.5		2.4		2.3		3.7
Protection of persons and property		0.7		0.7		0.7		0.7		0.8		0.9		0.8		0.6		0.6		0.6		-2.2
Transportation		0.7		0.7		0.7		1.1		1.3		0.8		0.6		0.6		0.6		0.6		-1.7
Natural resources & economic development		1.2		1.3		1.2		1.4		1.5		1.6		1.6		1.2		1.0		0.9		-2.9
Other		0.6		0.6		0.8		0.9		0.9		1.5		1.0		0.9		0.8		0.8		3.5
Contingencies - general programs and CleanBC		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		0.9		0.5		0.4		n/a
Priority spending initiatives and caseload pressures		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		0.3		0.6		n/a
General government		0.5		0.6		0.5		1.3		0.6		0.6		0.6		0.5		0.4		0.4		-2.7
Debt servicing		0.9		0.9		0.9		0.9		0.8		0.7		0.8		1.0		1.1		1.3		3.5
Operating expense		18.3		18.7		19.1		22.0		20.0		20.5		20.7		21.4		20.6		20.3		1.1
Growth rates (per cent):
Health		6.3		5.8		5.9		9.2		7.7		9.9		15.0		5.0		2.4		1.3		n/a
Education		5.0		7.6		4.6		1.4		5.7		7.5		8.7		3.8		1.7		1.6		n/a
Social services		11.6		12.8		10.2		32.3		-6.7		32.8		-3.8		12.6		2.6		0.0		n/a
Protection of persons and property		16.6		3.8		6.1		6.2		30.1		18.6		-11.0		-17.6		0.7		0.3		n/a
Transportation		8.2		4.7		5.2		58.1		32.5		-25.4		-28.3		15.1		1.8		-2.5		n/a
Natural resources & economic development		36.9		13.4		-1.2		10.9		24.4		20.5		6.7		-22.9		-16.6		-1.6		n/a
Other		-31.0		16.3		37.8		13.4		7.7		86.1		-26.5		-12.1		-1.3		-4.0		n/a
Contingencies - general programs and CleanBC		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-48.0		-14.4		n/a
Priority spending initiatives and caseload pressures		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		100.0		n/a
General government		0.5		8.4		-1.0		136.5		-47.9		14.0		0.7		-11.7		-4.2		0.2		n/a
Debt servicing		1.4		2.3		1.6		-0.2		0.7		-0.8		21.1		32.8		14.5		17.0		n/a
Operating expense		6.2		7.5		6.1		14.6		5.1		13.6		4.7		7.2		0.3		2.3		n/a
Per capita ($): 3
Health		4,243		4,413		4,589		4,948		5,279		5,661		6,317		6,443		6,517		6,523		4.9
Education		2,654		2,807		2,884		2,888		3,024		3,173		3,348		3,373		3,390		3,404		2.8
Social services		960		1,064		1,152		1,505		1,391		1,802		1,682		1,840		1,865		1,843		7.5
Protection of persons and property		391		399		416		436		562		650		562		450		447		444		1.4
Transportation		391		403		416		650		852		620		431		482		484		467		2.0
Natural resources & economic development		684		762		739		810		997		1,173		1,215		910		750		729		0.7
Other		319		365		494		553		590		1,071		764		652		636		603		7.3
Contingencies - general programs and CleanBC		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		684		351		297		n/a
Priority spending initiatives and caseload pressures		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		174		343		n/a
General government		313		333		324		757		390		434		424		364		344		341		1.0
Debt servicing		532		535		534		526		525		508		596		769		871		1,007		7.3
Operating expense		10,487		11,081		11,548		13,073		13,610		15,092		15,339		15,967		15,829		16,001		4.8
Real Per Capita Operating Expense (2023 $) 4		12,685		13,048		13,289		14,929		15,119		15,682		15,339		15,543		15,072		14,933		1.8
Growth rate (per cent)		6.4		2.9		1.8		12.3		1.3		3.7		-2.2		1.3		-3.0		-0.9		2.4

1	Numbers may not add due to rounding.
2	Expense as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 expense divided by nominal GDP for the 2024 calendar year).
3	Per capita expense is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2024/25 expense divided by population on July 1, 2024).
4	Expense is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2024 CPI for 2024/25 expense).

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  73

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A9 Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) – 2017/18 to 2026/27 ¹

	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19		Actual 2019/20		Actual 2020/21		Actual 2021/22		Actual 2022/23		Actual 2023/24		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		Average annual change
																					(per cent)
Taxpayer-supported programs and agencies:
Ministries and special offices (CRF)		29,291		30,891		31,774		32,672		33,400		33,696		37,008		38,900		38,900		38,900		3.2
Service delivery agencies 2		5,076		5,258		5,985		6,042		6,767		7,746		8,666		9,217		9,387		9,623		7.4
Total FTEs		34,367		36,149		37,759		38,714		40,167		41,442		45,674		48,117		48,287		48,523		3.9
Growth rates (per cent):
Ministries and special offices (CRF)		4.8		5.5		2.9		2.8		2.2		0.9		9.8		5.1		0.0		0.0		3.4
Service delivery agencies		4.7		3.6		13.8		1.0		12.0		14.5		11.9		6.4		1.8		2.5		7.2
Population per FTE: 3
Total FTEs		143.6		138.9		135.4		133.7		130.1		129.2		120.8		118.1		119.1		120.0		-2.0

1	Full-time equivalents (FTEs) are a measure of staff employment. FTEs are calculated by dividing the total hours of employment paid for in a given period by the number of hours an individual, full-time person would normally work in that period. This does not equate to the physical number of employees. For example, two half-time employees would equal one FTE, or alternatively, three FTEs may represent two full-time employees who have worked sufficient overtime hours to equal an additional FTE.
2	Service delivery agency FTE amounts do not include SUCH sector staff employment.
3	Population per FTE is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. population on July 1, 2024 divided by 2024/25 FTEs).

74  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A10 Capital Spending — 2017/18 to 2026/27

($ millions)	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19		Actual 2019/20		Actual 2020/21		Actual 2021/22		Actual 2022/23		Actual 2023/24		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		Average annual change
																					(per cent)
Taxpayer-supported:
Education
Schools districts		578		626		877		944		1,001		934		874		1,221		1,463		1,535		11.5
Post-secondary institutions		968		1,024		936		904		899		1,071		1,227		2,055		2,058		1,858		7.5
Health		890		904		1,009		1,162		1,555		1,915		2,998		4,253		4,777		4,365		19.3
BC Transportation Financing Authority 1		717		853		955		1,285		1,364		1,823		2,263		3,959		5,019		5,075		24.3
BC Transit		115		85		73		107		67		100		158		289		606		268		9.9
Government direct (ministries)		430		421		520		389		386		470		537		704		554		566		3.1
Social Housing		169		483		355		572		642		357		587		846		714		796		18.8
Other		41		56		47		65		88		85		128		282		122		75		6.9
Total taxpayer-supported		3,908		4,452		4,772		5,428		6,002		6,755		8,772		13,609		15,313		14,538		15.7
Self-supported:
BC Hydro		2,473		3,826		3,082		3,207		3,475		3,919		4,263		4,197		4,051		4,411		6.6
Columbia Basin power projects		1		2		994		7		9		10		8		15		21		20		39.5
Transportation Investment Corporation 1		4		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		n/a
BC Railway Company		11		33		6		1		2		6		4		6		5		4		-10.6
ICBC		54		66		62		100		54		41		64		66		76		199		15.6
BC Lottery Corporation 2		82		75		102		73		90		95		84		100		105		105		2.8
Liquor Distribution Branch		48		60		36		22		22		16		18		34		27		30		-5.1
Other3		56		44		104		65		78		78		143		-		-		-		n/a
Total self-supported		2,729		4,106		4,386		3,475		3,730		4,165		4,584		4,418		4,285		4,769		6.4
Total capital spending		6,637		8,558		9,158		8,903		9,732		10,920		13,356		18,027		19,598		19,307		12.6
Per cent of nominal GDP: 4
Taxpayer-supported		1.4		1.5		1.5		1.8		1.7		1.7		2.1		3.2		3.5		3.1		9.5
Self-supported		1.0		1.4		1.4		1.1		1.0		1.1		1.1		1.0		1.0		1.0		0.7
Total		2.4		2.9		3.0		2.9		2.7		2.8		3.3		4.3		4.4		4.2		6.6
Growth rates:
Taxpayer-supported		6.8		13.9		7.2		13.7		10.6		12.5		29.9		55.1		12.5		-5.1		n/a
Self-supported		0.1		50.5		6.8		-20.8		7.3		11.7		10.1		-3.6		-3.0		11.3		62.0
Total		4.0		28.9		7.0		-2.8		9.3		12.2		22.3		35.0		8.7		-1.5		n/a
Per capita: 5
Taxpayer-supported		792		887		934		1,049		1,148		1,261		1,589		2,394		2,662		2,497		13.6
Self-supported		553		818		858		671		714		778		831		777		745		819		4.5
Total		1,345		1,704		1,792		1,720		1,862		2,039		2,420		3,172		3,407		3,316		10.5
Real Per Capita Capital Spending (2023 $) 6		1,627		2,007		2,062		1,964		2,069		2,119		2,420		3,088		3,244		3,095		7.4
Growth rate (per cent)		0.3		23.4		2.7		-4.7		5.3		2.4		14.2		27.6		5.1		-4.6		n/a

1	Includes Transportation Investment Plan capital spending and, beginning in 2017/18, Transportation Investment Corporation rehabilitation costs for the Port Mann Bridge due to reclassification from self-supported commercial Crown corporation to a taxpayer-supported agency in response to the cancellation of tolls. Effective April 1, 2018, Transportation Investment Corporation became a subsidiary of BCTFA.
2	Forecasted amounts exclude right-of-use assets.
3	Includes post-secondary institutions' self-supported subsidiaries
4	Capital spending as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 amounts divided by nominal GDP for the 2024 calendar year).
5	Per capita capital spending is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2024/25 amounts divided by population on July 1, 2024).
6	Capital spending is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2024 CPI for 2024/25 capital spending).

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  75

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A11 Statement of Financial Position – 2017/18 to 2026/27 ¹

($ millions)	Actual 2017/18			Actual 2018/19			Actual 2019/20			Actual 2020/21			Actual 2021/22			Actual 2022/23			Actual 2023/24			Updated Forecast 2024/25			Plan 2025/26			Plan 2026/27			Average annual change
																															(per cent)
Financial assets:
Cash and temporary investments		3,440			3,029			3,985			6,560			7,142			8,247			6,768			4,600			4,526			4,458			2.4
Other financial assets		11,749			12,646			12,413			15,413			17,109			19,074			22,057			21,670			23,971			26,104			7.5
Sinking funds		1,348			752			692			492			510			521			491			561			377			385			-10.8
Investments in commercial Crown corporations:
Retained earnings		6,134			5,738			6,523			9,632			12,426			12,926			14,677			15,403			16,541			17,678			10.1
Recoverable capital loans		20,534			22,547			24,768			26,301			27,218			28,037			30,572			33,877			35,824			38,101			5.8
		26,668			28,285			31,291			35,933			39,644			40,963			45,249			49,280			52,365			55,779			6.9
Total financial assets		43,205			44,712			48,381			58,398			64,405			68,805			74,565			76,111			81,239			86,726			6.5
Liabilities:
Accounts payable, accrued liabilities & others		11,278			12,137			13,100			14,733			18,509			25,400			23,798			22,427			23,410			24,021			7.1
Deferred revenue		8,967			9,620			9,895			11,557			12,796			14,494			15,053			16,154			17,563			18,657			6.9
Debt:
Taxpayer-supported debt		43,607			42,681			46,229			59,750			62,341			59,888			75,402			93,346			113,790			133,364			10.7
Self-supported debt		21,312			23,281			25,932			27,350			28,325			29,492			32,060			35,264			37,185			39,568			5.8
Total provincial debt		64,919			65,962			72,161			87,100			90,666			89,380			107,462			128,610			150,975			172,932			9.3
Add: debt offset by sinking funds		1,348			752			692			492			510			521			491			561			377			385			-10.8
Add: foreign exchange adjustments		-			-			-			-			-			472			494			700			201			(444	)		n/a
Less: guarantees & non-guaranteed debt		(896	)		(850	)		(1,337	)		(1,335	)		(1,402	)		(1,523	)		(1,476	)		(1,592	)		(1,766	)		(2,072	)		7.9
Financial statement debt		65,371			65,864			71,516			86,257			89,774			88,850			106,971			128,279			149,787			170,801			9.1
Total liabilities		85,616			87,621			94,511			112,547			121,079			128,744			145,822			166,860			190,760			213,479			8.7
Net liabilities		(42,411	)		(42,909	)		46,130	)		(54,149	)		(56,674	)		(59,939	)		(71,257	)		90,749	)		(109,521	)		(126,753	)		10.5
Capital and other assets:
Tangible capital assets		45,915			47,909			50,104			52,861			56,142			59,818			65,583			76,100			88,091			99,143			7.2
Restricted assets		1,768			1,834			1,931			2,003			2,147			2,224			2,352			2,427			2,502			2,579			3.5
Other assets		932			952			1,100			1,582			1,791			1,347			1,701			1,622			1,628			1,636			5.2
Total capital and other assets		48,615			50,695			53,135			56,446			60,080			63,389			69,636			80,149			92,221			103,358			7.1
Accumulated surplus (deficit)		6,204			7,786			7,005			2,297			3,406			3,450			(1,621	)		(10,600	)		(17,300	)		(23,395	)
Per cent of Nominal GDP: 2
Net liabilities		15.0			14.4			14.9			17.6			15.9			15.2			17.4			21.4			24.8			27.4			5.6
Capital and other assets		17.2			17.0			17.2			18.4			16.9			16.0			17.0			18.9			20.9			22.3			2.4
Growth rates:
Net liabilities		10.9			1.2			7.5			17.4			4.7			5.8			18.9			27.4			20.7			15.7			n/a
Capital and other assets		10.0			4.3			4.8			6.2			6.4			5.5			9.9			15.1			15.1			12.1			n/a
Per capita: 3
Net liabilities		8,595			8,546			9,026			10,461			10,843			11,190			12,911			15,966			19,039			21,768			8.8
Capital and other assets		9,853			10,097			10,396			10,905			11,495			11,835			12,617			14,101			16,031			17,751			5.5

1	Figures have been restated to reflect government's current accounting policies.
2	Net liabilities as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 amount divided by GDP for the 2024 calendar year).
3	Per capita net liabilities is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2024/25 amount divided by population on July 1, 2024).

76  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A12 Changes in Financial Position – 2017/18 to 2026/27

($ millions)	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19		Actual 2019/20		Actual 2020/21		Actual 2021/22		Actual 2022/23		Actual 2023/24		Updated Forecast 2024/25		Plan 2025/26		Plan 2026/27		10-Year Total
(Surplus) deficit for the year	(196	)	(1,316	)	531		5,615		(1,262	)	(956	)	5,035		8,979		6,700		6,095		29,225
Change in remeasurement (gains) losses	(36	)	(266	)	250		(907	)	153		912		36		-		-		-		142
Change in accumulated (surplus) deficit	(232	)	(1,582	)	781		4,708		(1,109	)	(44	)	5,071		8,979		6,700		6,095		26,909
Capital and other asset changes:
Taxpayer-supported capital investments	3,908		4,452		4,772		5,428		6,002		6,755		8,772		13,609		15,313		14,538		83,549
Less: amortization and other accounting changes	625		(2,458	)	(2,577	)	(2,671	)	(2,721	)	(3,079	)	(3,007	)	(3,092	)	(3,322	)	(3,486	)	(25,788	)
Increase in net capital assets	4,533		1,994		2,195		2,757		3,281		3,676		5,765		10,517		11,991		11,052		57,761
Increase (decrease) in restricted assets	73		66		97		72		144		77		128		75		75		77		884
Increase (decrease) in other assets	(194	)	20		148		482		209		(444	)	354		(79	)	6		8		510
Change in capital and other assets	4,412		2,080		2,440		3,311		3,634		3,309		6,247		10,513		12,072		11,137		59,155
Increase (decrease) in net liabilities	4,180		498		3,221		8,019		2,525		3,265		11,318		19,492		18,772		17,232		88,522
Investment and working capital changes:
Investment in commercial Crown corporations:
Increase (decrease) in retained earnings	(1,383)		(396	)	785		3,109		2,794		500		1,751		726		1,138		1,137		10,161
Self-supported capital investments	2,729		4,106		4,386		3,475		3,730		4,165		4,584		4,418		4,285		4,769		40,647
Less: loan repayments and other accounting changes	(6,004	)	(2,093	)	(2,165	)	(1,942	)	(2,813	)	(3,346	)	(2,049	)	(1,113	)	(2,338	)	(2,492	)	(26,355	)
Change in investment	(4,658	)	1,617		3,006		4,642		3,711		1,319		4,286		4,031		3,085		3,414		24,453
Increase (decrease) in cash and temporary investments	(792	)	(411	)	956		2,575		582		1,105		(1,479	)	(2,168	)	(74	)	(68	)	226
Other working capital changes 1	552		(1,211	)	(1,531	)	(495	)	(3,301	)	(6,613	)	3,996		(47	)	(275	)	436		(8,489	)
Change in investment and working capital	(4,898	)	(5	)	2,431		6,722		992		(4,189	)	6,803		1,816		2,736		3,782		16,190
Increase (decrease) in financial statement debt	(718	)	493		5,652		14,741		3,517		(924	)	18,121		21,308		21,508		21,014		104,712
(Increase) decrease in sinking fund debt	(261	)	596		60		200		(18	)	(11	)	30		(70	)	184		(8	)	702
(Increase) decrease in foreign exchange	-		-		-		-		-		(472	)	(22	)	(206	)	499		645		444
Increase (decrease) in guarantees	(188	)	(2	)	57		113		9		(227	)	(80	)	217		200		200		299
Increase (decrease) in non-guaranteed debt	249		(44	)	430		(115	)	58		348		33		(101	)	(26	)	106		938
Increase (decrease) in total provincial debt	(918	)	1,043		6,199		14,939		3,566		(1,286	)	18,082		21,148		22,365		21,957		107,095
Represented by increase (decrease) in:
Taxpayer-supported debt	2,108		(926	)	3,548		13,521		2,591		(2,453	)	15,514		17,944		20,444		19,574		91,865
Self-supported debt	(3,026	)	1,969		2,651		1,418		975		1,167		2,568		3,204		1,921		2,383		15,230
Total provincial debt	(918	)	1,043		6,199		14,939		3,566		(1,286	)	18,082		21,148		22,365		21,957		107,095

¹ Includes changes in other financial assets, sinking funds, accounts payable, deferred revenue and other accrued liabilities.

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  77

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A13 Provincial Debt – 2017/18 to 2026/27

($ millions)	Actual 2017/18		Actual 2018/19	Actual 2019/20	Actual 2020/21	Actual 2021/22	Actual 2022/23	Actual 2023/24	Updated Forecast 2024/25	Plan 2025/26	Plan 2026/27	Average annual change
												(per cent)
Taxpayer-supported debt:
Provincial government
Operating		1,156	-	-	8,746	7,233	-	8,729	16,495	23,256	29,715	43.4
Capital 1
K-12 education		8,891	8,885	9,757	10,529	11,342	10,893	11,643	12,550	13,760	14,939	5.9
Post-secondary institutions		4,584	4,607	4,917	5,426	5,732	5,502	5,979	6,792	7,849	8,767	7.5
Health facilities		6,141	6,173	6,705	7,484	8,223	8,286	10,109	12,872	16,377	19,636	13.8
Ministries general capital		2,718	2,363	3,133	3,702	4,087	4,549	5,084	5,614	6,067	6,533	10.2
Transportation		5,682	5,401	5,401	5,401	5,401	5,391	5,391	5,391	5,391	5,391	-0.6
Social housing		619	619	805	1,062	1,424	1,648	2,024	2,662	3,252	3,870	22.6
Other		242	242	252	268	278	269	352	483	526	536	9.2
Total capital		28,877	28,290	30,970	33,872	36,487	36,538	40,582	46,364	53,222	59,672	8.4
Total provincial government		30,033	28,290	30,970	42,618	43,720	36,538	49,311	62,859	76,478	89,387	12.9
Taxpayer-supported entities:
BC Pavilion Corporation		141	138	135	132	129	126	123	119	116	112	-2.5
BC Transit		84	73	65	60	56	53	109	141	245	318	15.9
BC Transportation Financing Authority		10,388	11,293	12,193	13,321	14,615	18,946	21,286	25,264	30,405	36,013	14.8
Health Authorities and Hospital Societies		1,762	1,795	1,802	1,875	1,839	1,983	2,387	2,340	2,289	2,234	2.7
InBC Investment Corp		161	70	45	37	19	21	60	153	267	331	8.3
Post-secondary institutions		744	763	753	882	922	910	897	979	971	955	2.8
School districts		17	19	18	24	25	21	19	14	9	5	-12.7
Social housing		259	225	222	770	974	1,241	1,182	1,249	2,581	3,380	33.0
Other		18	15	26	31	42	49	28	228	429	629	48.4
Total taxpayer-supported entities		13,574	14,391	15,259	17,132	18,621	23,350	26,091	30,487	37,312	43,977	14.0
Total taxpayer-supported debt		43,607	42,681	46,229	59,750	62,341	59,888	75,402	93,346	113,790	133,364	13.2
Self-supported debt:
Commercial Crown corporations and agencies
BC Hydro		19,990	22,064	23,238	24,650	25,611	26,707	29,351	32,514	34,442	36,708	7.0
BC Liquor Distribution Branch		-	-	210	233	230	242	233	163	171	180	n/a
BC Lottery Corporation		155	100	233	228	195	201	169	218	233	247	5.3
Columbia Basin power projects		433	418	1,387	1,349	1,319	1,298	1,265	1,237	1,205	1,181	11.8
Columbia Power Corporation		286	282	276	271	266	270	266	260	251	242	-1.8
Post-secondary institution subsidiaries		418	387	504	520	615	685	682	775	775	775	7.1
Other		30	30	84	99	89	89	94	97	108	235	25.7
Total self-supported debt		21,312	23,281	25,932	27,350	28,325	29,492	32,060	35,264	37,185	39,568	7.1
Total provincial debt		64,919	65,962	72,161	87,100	90,666	89,380	107,462	128,610	150,975	172,932	11.5

¹ Includes debt incurred by the government to fund the building and construction of capital assets in the education, health, social housing and other sectors.

78  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A14 Provincial Debt Supplementary Information – 2017/18 to 2026/27¹

($ millions)	Actual 2017/18	Actual 2018/19	Actual 2019/20	Actual 2020/21	Actual 2021/22	Actual 2022/23	Actual 2023/24	Updated Forecast 2024/25	Plan 2025/26	Plan 2026/27	Average annual change
											(per cent)
Per cent of nominal GDP: 2
Taxpayer-supported debt:
Provincial government direct operating	0.4	-	-	2.8	2.0	-	2.1	3.9	5.3	6.4	35.8
Provincial government capital	10.2	9.5	10.0	11.0	10.3	9.2	9.9	10.9	12.0	12.9	2.6
Total provincial government	10.6	9.5	10.0	13.9	12.3	9.2	12.0	14.8	17.3	19.3	6.9
Taxpayer-supported entities	4.8	4.8	4.9	5.6	5.2	5.9	6.4	7.2	8.4	9.5	7.9
Total taxpayer-supported debt	15.4	14.4	15.0	19.4	17.5	15.2	18.4	22.0	25.7	28.8	7.2
Self-supported debt:
Commercial Crown corporations & agencies	7.6	7.8	8.4	8.9	8.0	7.5	7.8	8.3	8.4	8.6	1.4
Total provincial debt	23.0	22.2	23.4	28.3	25.5	22.6	26.2	30.3	34.1	37.4	5.5
Growth rates (per cent):
Taxpayer-supported debt:
Provincial government direct operating	-75.1	-100.0	-	-	-17.3	-100.0	-	89.0	41.0	27.8	n/a
Provincial government capital	21.7	-2.0	9.5	9.4	7.7	0.1	11.1	14.2	14.8	12.1	-6.3
Taxpayer-supported entities	3.4	6.0	6.0	12.3	8.7	25.4	11.7	16.8	22.4	17.9	20.3
Total taxpayer-supported debt	5.1	-2.1	8.3	29.2	4.3	-3.9	25.9	23.8	21.9	17.2	14.5
Self-supported debt:
Commercial Crown corporations & agencies	1.8	9.2	11.4	5.5	3.6	4.1	8.7	10.0	5.4	6.4	n/a
Total provincial debt	4.0	1.6	9.4	20.7	4.1	-1.4	20.2	19.7	17.4	14.5	n/a
Per capita: 3
Taxpayer-supported debt:
Provincial government direct operating	234	-	-	1,690	1,384	-	1,582	2,902	4,043	5,103	40.8
Provincial government capital	5,852	5,634	6,059	6,544	6,981	6,822	7,353	8,157	9,252	10,248	6.4
Taxpayer-supported entities	2,751	2,866	2,986	3,310	3,563	4,359	4,727	5,364	6,486	7,553	11.9
Total taxpayer-supported debt	8,838	8,501	9,045	11,543	11,927	11,181	13,662	16,423	19,781	22,904	11.2
Self-supported debt:
Commercial Crown corporations & agencies	4,319	4,637	5,074	5,284	5,419	5,506	5,809	6,204	6,464	6,795	5.2
Total provincial debt	13,157	13,137	14,119	16,827	17,347	16,687	19,471	22,628	26,245	29,699	9.5
Real Per Capita Provincial Debt (2023 $) 4	15,915	15,470	16,246	19,217	19,271	17,341	19,471	22,027	24,991	27,718	6.4
Growth rate (per cent)	0.3	-2.8	5.0	18.3	0.3	-10.0	12.3	13.1	13.5	10.9	n/a

¹ Numbers may not add due to rounding.

² Debt as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 debt divided by nominal GDP for the 2024 calendar year).

³ Per capita debt is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2024/25 debt divided by population on July 1, 2024).

⁴ Debt is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2024 CPI for 2024/25 debt).

First Quarterly Report 2024/25 |  79

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

Table A15 Key Provincial Debt Indicators – 2017/18 to 2026/27

	Actual 2017/18	Actual 2018/19	Actual 2019/20	Actual 2020/21	Actual 2021/22	Actual 2022/23	Actual 2023/24	Updated Forecast 2024/25	Plan 2025/26	Plan 2026/27	Average annual change
											(per cent)
Debt to revenue (per cent)
Total provincial	94.8	89.7	95.9	115.2	104.4	90.7	113.4	130.4	147.4	163.2	6.2
Taxpayer-supported	82.6	75.3	80.6	101.4	90.9	74.3	97.9	117.1	139.1	158.0	7.5
Debt per capita ($) 1
Total provincial	13,157	13,137	14,119	16,827	17,347	16,687	19,471	22,628	26,245	29,699	9.5
Taxpayer-supported	8,838	8,501	9,045	11,543	11,927	11,181	13,662	16,423	19,781	22,904	11.2
Debt to nominal GDP (per cent) 2
Total provincial	23.0	22.2	23.4	28.3	25.5	22.6	26.2	30.3	34.1	37.4	5.5
Taxpayer-supported	15.4	14.4	15.0	19.4	17.5	15.2	18.4	22.0	25.7	28.8	7.2
Interest bite (cents per dollar of revenue) 3
Total provincial	4.0	3.8	3.8	3.7	3.3	3.2	3.7	4.7	5.1	5.8	4.1
Taxpayer-supported	3.3	3.2	3.1	3.1	2.8	2.5	3.2	4.2	4.8	5.6	6.2
Interest costs ($ millions)
Total provincial	2,759	2,786	2,872	2,817	2,848	3,116	3,518	4,679	5,261	6,150	9.3
Taxpayer-supported	1,725	1,793	1,807	1,832	1,896	2,032	2,446	3,349	3,909	4,727	11.9
Interest rate (per cent) 4
Taxpayer-supported	4.1	4.2	4.1	3.5	3.1	3.3	3.6	4.0	3.8	3.8	-0.6
Background Information:
Revenue ($ millions)
Total provincial 5	68,471	73,556	75,283	75,583	86,832	98,583	94,769	98,641	102,408	105,951	5.0
Taxpayer-supported 6	52,786	56,703	57,386	58,925	68,587	80,575	77,043	79,690	81,780	84,414	5.4
Debt ($ millions)
Total provincial	64,919	65,962	72,161	87,100	90,666	89,380	107,462	128,610	150,975	172,932	11.5
Taxpayer-supported 7	43,607	42,681	46,229	59,750	62,341	59,888	75,402	93,346	113,790	133,364	13.2
Provincial nominal GDP ($ millions) 8	282,283	297,392	308,993	307,412	355,937	395,215	409,874	424,051	442,228	462,735	5.6
Population (thousands at July 1) 9	4,934	5,021	5,111	5,176	5,227	5,356	5,519	5,684	5,753	5,823	1.9

¹ The ratio of debt to population (e.g. 2024/25 debt divided by population at July 1, 2024).

² The ratio of debt outstanding at fiscal year end to provincial nominal gross domestic product (GDP) for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2024/25 debt divided by 2024 nominal GDP).

³ The ratio of interest costs (less sinking fund interest) to revenue. Figures include capitalized interest expense in order to provide a more comparable measure to outstanding debt.

⁴ Weighted average of all outstanding debt issues.

⁵ Includes revenue of the consolidated revenue fund (excluding dividends from enterprises) plus revenue of all government organizations and enterprises.

⁶ Excludes revenue of government enterprises, but includes dividends from enterprises paid to the consolidated revenue fund.

⁷ Excludes debt of commercial Crown corporations and agencies and funds held under the province's warehouse borrowing program.

⁸ Nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. nominal GDP for 2024 is used for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025).

⁹ Population at July 1st within the fiscal year (e.g. population at July 1, 2024 is used for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025).

80  | First Quarterly Report 2024/25

 

This page intentionally left blank

 

This page intentionally left blank

 

This page intentionally left blank

 

WWW.GOV.BC.CA/FIN