Province Of New Brunswick 18-K/A Annual report (foreign governments) (amended)

EXHIBIT 99.10

Department of

Finance

Economic and Fiscal Update

First Quarter Projections

2015-2016

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Economic and Fiscal Update

First Quarter Projections

2015-2016

Published by: Department of

Finance Government of New

Brunswick P.O. Box 6000

Fredericton, New Brunswick

E3B 5H1

Canada

Internet: www.gnb.ca/finance

August 2015

Translation:

Translation Bureau, Government Services

ISBN 978-1-4605-0504-5

Think Recycling!

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  ●           The  International  Monetary  Fund  (IMF)  is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2015. This is a downgrade from its forecast in the fall edition of its World Economic Outlook.   ●           U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2015, which represents   an   improvement   over   first   quarter activity. The slow start to the year, however, will result in weaker-than-expected growth for 2015.   ●           The Bank of Canada estimates that real GDP declined during the first half of 2015. Much of the weakness is related to the decline in oil prices, resulting   in   slower   growth   in   investment   and exports.   ●           The Department of Finance now projects real GDP growth for New Brunswick of 1.5 per cent for 2015 - a downgrade from the 1.8 per cent projection at budget. This is consistent with the consensus among private  sector forecasters, which  has trended  downwards  and  currently  sits  at  1.4  per cent.   ●           Midway through 2015, employment is down by 0.9 per cent over the year prior. Weakness was concentrated in the goods sector (-7.2%), largely as a result of a slowdown in the construction sector.   ●           Average  weekly  earnings  are  up  3.4  per cent, on a year-to-date basis - above the national growth  rate  of  2.4  per  cent.  However,  combined with the decline in employment, household income growth is expected to moderate.   ●           After a slow start to the year, exports are up 2.2 per cent on a year-to-date basis. The largest gains    were    observed    in    energy    products (+$286.8 million), consumer goods (+$52.1 million) and    metal    ores    and    non-metallic    minerals (+$43.7 million).   ●           Manufacturing  sales  are  down  by  5.3  per cent  compared  to  prior  year  levels.  Significant growth in durable goods industries (+10.1%) has not been sufficient to offset a decline in the larger non-durable goods industries (-7.8%) grouping. Wood products manufacturing remains a bright spot, posting growth of 4.8%. ●Consumer spending continues to show modest improvement, with retail trade up 1.0 per cent on a year-to-date basis. Gasoline station sales (-15.5%) have been impacted by lower prices for crude-based products. Excluding gasoline station sales, retail trade is up 4.7 per cent.

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2015-2016 Fiscal Update

Based on first quarter information, there is a projected deficit of $470.6 million for 2015-2016. This is an improvement of $6.2 million compared to the budget deficit of $476.8 million.

Net debt is projected to increase $583.9 million to $12,602.2 million, a decrease of $1.6 million from the budget estimate of $12,603.8 million.

Revenue:

Revenue is $4.2 million higher than budget. The major variances include:

· Miscellaneous Revenue is up $11.2 million mainly due to increased revenue from the Regional Health Authorities.

· Provincial Real Property Tax is up $10.0 million due to base improvements in the previous year.

· Return on Investment is down $12.6 million primarily as a result of lower projected net income for NB Power. This is mainly due to unanticipated outages at the Point Lepreau Nuclear Power Station.

· Personal Income Tax is lower by $5.0 million attributable to weaker-than-anticipated employment growth.

Expense:

Total expenses are projected to be $2.0 million lower than budget.

The major variances include the following:

· Opportunities New Brunswick ($5.7 million under): Mainly due to lower than anticipated financial assistance to companies.

· Public Safety ($5.3 million over): Due to higher than budgeted expenses under the Disaster Financial Assistance program associated with storm and flood events that occurred in 2014. These expenses are partially offset by increased recoveries from the federal government.

· Tourism, Heritage and Culture ($2.4 million over): Due to costs associated with the completion of an archaeological impact assessment for the proposed Sisson Mine project.

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PROVINCE OF NEW BRUNSWICK

FISCAL UPDATE

Thousands

$

				2015-2016			Variance
	2015-2016			1st Quarter			from
	Budget			Projection			Budget
Revenue
Ordinary Account		7,984,551			7,991,662			7,111
Capital Account		10,705			8,424			(2,281	)
Special Purpose Account		61,342			61,104			(238	)
Special Operating Agencies		57,634			57,251			(383	)
Sinking Fund Earnings		193,700			193,700			0
Total Revenue		8,307,932			8,312,141			4,209
Expense
Ordinary Account		8,007,021			8,005,301			(1,720	)
Capital Account		82,903			85,067			2,164
Special Purpose Account		74,228			74,205			(23	)
Special Operating Agencies		53,372			52,512			(860	)
Amortization of Tangible Capital Assets		417,238			415,652			(1,586	)
Total Expense		8,634,762			8,632,737			(2,025	)
Contingency Reserve		(150,000	)		(150,000	)		0
Surplus (Deficit)		(476,830	)		(470,596	)		6,234

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CHANGE IN NET DEBT

Thousands

$

				2015-2016			Variance
	2015-2016			1st Quarter			from
	Budget			Projection			Budget
Net Debt - Beginning of Year		(12,018,306	)		(12,018,306	)		0
Changes in Year
Surplus (Deficit)		(476,830	)		(470,596	)		6,234
Investments in Tangible Capital Assets		(525,898	)		(528,911	)		(3,013	)
Amortization of Tangible Capital Assets		417,238			415,652			(1,586	)
(Increase) Decrease in Net Debt		(585,490	)		(583,855	)		1,635
Net Debt - End of Year		(12,603,796	)		(12,602,161	)		1,635

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APPENDIX A

ORDINARY ACCOUNT REVENUE BY SOURCE

Thousands

$

				2015-2016			Variance
	2015-2016			1st Quarter			from
	Budget			Projection			Budget
Taxes
Personal Income Tax		1,587,000			1,582,000			(5,000	)
Corporate Income Tax		258,000			258,000			0
Provincial Real Property Tax		488,100			498,100			10,000
Harmonized Sales Tax		1,184,200			1,184,200			0
Gasoline and Motive Fuels Tax		268,200			270,200			2,000
Tobacco Tax		135,800			135,800			0
Pari-Mutuel Tax		600			600			0
Insurance Premium Tax		53,546			53,546			0
Real Property Transfer Tax		12,000			12,000			0
Financial Corporation Capital Tax		27,000			27,000			0
Penalties and Interest		13,000			13,000			0
Subtotal - Taxes		4,027,446			4,034,446			7,000	��
Return on Investment		295,765			283,160			(12,605	)
Licences and Permits		148,333			148,019			(314	)
Sale of Goods and Services		325,187			324,221			(966	)
Lottery and Gaming Revenues		140,300			139,900			(400	)
Royalties		107,230			107,230			0
Fines and Penalties		8,165			8,165			0
Miscellaneous		61,189			72,407			11,218
Total - Own Source Revenue		5,113,615			5,117,548			3,933
Unconditional Grants – Canada
Fiscal Equalization Payments		1,668,900			1,668,900			0
Canada Health Transfer		717,800			717,800			0
Canada Social Transfer		273,400			273,400			0
Other		1,866			1,866			0
Subtotal - Unconditional Grants – Canada		2,661,966			2,661,966			0
Conditional Grants – Canada		219,252			222,143			2,891
Total - Grants from Canada		2,881,218			2,884,109			2,891
Subtotal		7,994,833			8,001,657			6,824
Inter-account Transactions		(10,282	)		(9,995	)		287
Ordinary Account Revenue		7,984,551			7,991,662			7,111

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APPENDIX B

ORDINARY ACCOUNT EXPENSE

Thousands

$

				2015-2016			Variance
	2015-2016			1st Quarter			from
	Budget			Projection			Budget			%
DEPARTMENT
Agriculture, Aquaculture and Fisheries		37,495			37,495			0			0.0	%
Education and Early Childhood Development		1,118,623			1,118,623			0			0.0	%
Energy and Mines		8,617			8,617			0			0.0	%
Environment and Local Government		139,381			139,381			0			0.0	%
Executive Council Office		19,148			19,038			(110	)		-0.6	%
Finance		17,282			17,182			(100	)		-0.6	%
General Government		554,951			553,619			(1,332	)		-0.2	%
Government Services		53,657			53,657			0			0.0	%
Health		2,596,039			2,596,039			0			0.0	%
Human Resources		3,421			3,421			0			0.0	%
Justice		42,491			42,491			0			0.0	%
Legislative Assembly		21,721			21,721			0			0.0	%
Natural Resources		93,267			93,267			0			0.0	%
Office of the Attorney General		17,975			17,975			0			0.0	%
Office of the Premier		1,616			1,616			0			0.0	%
Opportunities New Brunswick		50,883			45,215			(5,668	)		-11.1	%
Other Agencies		259,387			258,446			(941	)		-0.4	%
Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour		613,793			613,793			0			0.0	%
Public Safety		166,262			171,563			5,301			3.2	%
Regional Development Corporation		65,012			65,012			0			0.0	%
Service of the Public Debt		685,000			685,000			0			0.0	%
Social Development		1,113,693			1,115,218			1,525			0.1	%
Tourism, Heritage and Culture		52,382			54,802			2,420			4.6	%
Transportation and Infrastructure		296,942			296,942			0			0.0	%
Subtotal		8,029,038			8,030,133			1,095			0.0	%
Investment in Tangible Capital Assets		(11,735	)		(14,837	)		(3,102	)		26.4	%
Inter-account Transactions		(10,282	)		(9,995	)		287			-2.8	%
Ordinary Account Expense		8,007,021			8,005,301			(1,720	)		0.0	%

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APPENDIX C

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

Thousands

$

				2015-2016			Variance
	2015-2016			1st Quarter			from
	Budget			Projection			Budget
Regular Capital Investments
Agriculture, Aquaculture and Fisheries		900			500			(400	)
Education and Early Childhood Development		77,111			76,129			(982	)
Environment and Local Government		1,000			1,000			0
Health		58,900			57,021			(1,879	)
Legislative Assembly		735			735			0
Natural Resources		1,510			1,510			0
Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour		5,600			5,820			220
Regional Development Corporation		5,668			5,668			0
Tourism, Heritage and Culture		1,437			1,437			0
Transportation and Infrastructure		329,578			324,617			(4,961	)
Regular Capital Investments		482,439			474,437			(8,002	)
Strategic Infrastructure Initiative
Education and Early Childhood Development		16,250			16,891			641
Health		1,300			1,300			0
Regional Development Corporation		3,500			3,500			0
Tourism, Heritage and Culture		1,127			563			(564	)
Transportation and Infrastructure		70,610			70,610			0
Energy Retrofit and Renewable Energy		11,840			11,840			0
New Strategic Projects		10,000			10,000			0
Strategic Infrastructure Initiative		114,627			114,704			77
Total - Capital Expenditures		597,066			589,141			(7,925	)
Investments in Tangible Capital Assets		(514,163	)		(504,074	)		10,089
Capital Account Expense		82,903			85,067			2,164

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