At March 31, 2004 the following was the maturity profile of the fixed income securities that were in a gross unrealized loss position:
The Company operates a risk asset portfolio that includes high yield (below investment grade) fixed income securities. These represented approximately 4% of the total fixed income portfolio market value at March 31, 2004. These securities have a higher volatility to changes in fair values than investment grade securities. Of the total gross unrealized losses in the Company’s fixed income portfolio at March 31, 2004, $7.2 million related to securities that were below investment grade or not rated. The following is an analysis of how long each of these below investment grade and unrated securities had been in a continual unrealized loss position at the date indicated:
The following table sets forth other revenues and expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2004 and 2003:
The equity earnings of insurance affiliates were significantly improved during the quarter ended March 31, 2004 when compared to the same period in the prior year, which included an other than temporary decline of $40.9 million in the value of the Company’s investment in Annuity and Life Re (Holdings) Ltd.
Corporate operating expenses in the first quarter ended March 31, 2004 increased compared to the three months ended March 31, 2003 due to the continued build out of the Company’s global infrastructure in developing its network of shared service organizations to support operations in certain locations, costs related to compliance with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and costs related to the Company’s global branding campaign.
The decrease in interest expense primarily reflected a lower accretion charge on the deposit liabilities due to the commutation of certain finite reinsurance contracts. For more information on the Company’s financing structure, see “Financial Condition and Liquidity.”
The increase in the Company’s income taxes arose principally from an improvement in the profitability of the Company’s U.S. and European operations.
Financial Condition, Liquidity and Capital Resources
As a holding company, the Company’s assets consist primarily of its investments in subsidiaries, and the Company’s future cash flows depend on the availability of dividends or other statutorily permissible payments from its subsidiaries. The ability to pay such dividends is limited by the applicable laws and regulations of the various countries the Company operates in including, among others, Bermuda, the United States, Ireland, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, and those of the Society of Lloyd’s and certain contractual provisions. No assurance can be given that the Company or its subsidiaries will be permitted to pay dividends in the future.
The Company and its subsidiaries provide no guarantees or other commitments (express or implied) of financial support to the Company's subsidiaries or affiliates, except for express written financial support provided by XL Insurance (Bermuda) Ltd. in connection with the Company's financial guaranty subsidiaries and where other express written guaranty or other financial support arrangements are in place.
The Company’s ability to underwrite business is dependent upon the quality of its claims paying and financial strength ratings as evaluated by independent rating agencies. As a result, in the event that the Company is downgraded, its ability to write business would be adversely affected in financial guaranty and long-tailed insurance and reinsurance lines of business. In the normal course of business, the Company evaluates its capital needs to support the volume of business written in order to maintain its claims paying and financial strength ratings. In January 2004 several of the internationally recognized rating agencies amended their financial strength ratings of the Company’s principal insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries and pools following the announcement by the Company of an increase in the prior period loss reserves in the fourth quarter of 2003. The Company regularly provides financial information to rating agencies to both maintain and enhance existing ratings.
The following are the current financial strength and claims paying ratings from internationally recognized rating agencies in relation to the Company's principal insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries and pools.
| Rating agency | Rating | |
| Standard & Poor's | AA- | (Outlook Stable) |
| Fitch | AA | (Stable) |
| A.M. Best | A+ | (Outlook Negative) |
| Moody's Investor Services | Aa2 | (except members of the XL America Pool, XL Re Ltd. and XL Life Insurance and Annuity Company, which are rated Aa3. |
The following are the financial strength ratings from internationally recognized rating agencies in relation to the Company's principal financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries:
| Rating agency | Rating | |
| Standard & Poor's | AAA | |
| Fitch | AAA | |
| Moody's Investor Services | Aaa | |
In addition, XL Capital Ltd. currently has the following long term debt ratings: "a-" (Outlook Negative) from A.M. Best, "A" (Negative) from Standard and Poor's, "A2" (Stable) from Moody's and "A" (Stable) from Fitch.
Financial Condition
At March 31, 2004, total investments available for sale and cash, net of unsettled investment trades, were $24.7 billion compared to $23.1 billion at December 31, 2003. This increase in investment assets related primarily to proceeds of notes payable and the issuance of equity units of $800.2 million, cash flow generated from operating activities for the quarter of $525.9 million, and the receipt of deposit liabilities of $225.1 million. Of the Company’s total investments available for sale, including fixed maturities, short-term investments and equity securities, at March 31, 2004, approximately 99% was managed by several outside investment management firms. Approximately 96% of fixed maturity and short-term investments are investment grade, with 71% rated “Aa” or “AA” or better by a nationally recognized rating agency. Using the Standard & Poor’s rating scale, the average quality of the fixed income portfolio was “AA”.
As a significant portion of the Company’s net premium written incepts in the first quarter of the year, certain assets and liabilities have increased at March 31, 2004 compared to December 31, 2003. This includes deferred acquisition costs, unearned premiums, premiums receivable and prepaid reinsurance premiums. For the three months ended March 31, 2004, currency translation adjustment losses were $26.6 million. This is shown as part of accumulated other comprehensive income and primarily related to unrealized losses on foreign currency exchange rate movement in those operations where the functional currency is not the U.S. dollar.
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The Company establishes reserves to provide for estimated claims, the general expenses of administering the claims adjustment process and for losses incurred but not reported. These reserves are calculated using actuarial and other reserving techniques to project the estimated ultimate net liability for losses and loss expenses. The Company’s reserving practices and the establishment of any particular reserve reflect management’s judgment concerning sound financial practice and do not represent any admission of liability with respect to any claims made against the Company. No assurance can be given that actual claims made and payments related thereto will not be in excess of the amounts reserved.
Included in unpaid loss and loss expenses recoverable at March 31, 2004 is an unsecured, net recoverable from the Winterthur Swiss Insurance Company (the “Seller”) of $750.1 million, related to the acquisition of Winterthur International. This amount is subject to ongoing adjustment, and the Seller is currently rated “A” by S&P. The sale and purchase agreement (“SPA”) provides the Company with post-closing protection with respect to adverse development of loss and unearned premium reserves relating to the acquired Winterthur International business. This protection is based upon actual net loss experience and development over a three year post-closing seasoning period based on loss development experience, collectible reinsurance, reinsurance recoveries and certain other factors set forth in the SPA. The Company is currently preparing to submit its statement of the amount due from the Seller under the SPA. This preparation includes a review of the three year post closing seasoning period ended June 30, 2004. Completion of this review is expected to result in an increase in the net recoverable from the Seller that may be material. The amount of any adjustment is not yet determinable at this point. The SPA provides for independent actuarial determination should the Seller and the Company disagree on the final amounts due thereunder. The Company may recognize an impairment if the amount determined to be due to the Company is less than the carrying value of the SPA recovery balance deemed due from the Seller or to the extent that any amount proves to be uncollectible from the Seller for any reason.
Inflation can, among other things, potentially result in larger claims. The Company’s underwriting philosophy is to adjust premiums in response to inflation.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
As at March 31, 2004, the Company had bank, letter of credit and loan facilities available from a variety of sources including commercial banks totaling $7.1 billion, of which $2.7 billion in debt was outstanding. In addition, $2.8 billion of letters of credit were outstanding as of Match 31, 2004, 8% of which were collateralized by the Company’s investment portfolio, principally supporting U.S. non-admitted business and the Company’s Lloyd’s capital requirements.
In May 2001, the Company issued $1.01 billion principal amount at maturity (subject to adjustment in the event there is an upward interest adjustment) of Zero Coupon Convertible Debentures (“CARZ”) at $593.57 per bond and, unless converted or repaid before their due date of May 2021, they will be repaid in May 2021 at $1,000 per bond at a total cost of $1.01 billion. The accretion rate is 2.625% per annum on a semi-annual basis or 2.6422% per annum on an annual basis. Although the CARZ are due to be repaid in 2021, there are several features that may result in the bonds being repaid or converted into the Company’s Class A Ordinary Shares before the redemption date. The CARZ may be “put” at their accreted value or converted by the bondholders at various times prior to the 2021 redemption dates. The next “put” date is May 23, 2004. The Company may also choose to “call” the debt at its accreted value from that same date. To the extent that holders of the CARZ tender any Debentures for repurchase by the Company on May 23, 2004, the Company has elected to pay all of the purchase price for such Debentures in cash. The Company believes that it has the appropriate liquid resources in place to make such a payment should the holders elect to exercise this option.
In March, 2004 the Company issued 33 million 6.5% Equity Security Units (“Units”) in a public offering. The Company received approximately $800.2 million in proceeds from the sale of the Units after deducting underwriting discounts. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the Units for general corporate purposes.
Each Unit has a stated amount of $25 and consists of (a) a purchase contract pursuant to which the holder agreed to purchase, for $25, a variable number of shares of the Company’s Class A Ordinary Shares ("ordinary shares") on May 15, 2007 and (b) a one-fortieth, or 2.5%, ownership interest in a senior note issued by the Company due May 15, 2009 with a principal amount of $1,000. The senior notes are pledged by the holders to secure their obligations under the purchase contract. The number of shares issued under the purchase contract is contingently adjustable based on, among other things, the share price of the Company on the stock purchase date and the dividend rate of the Company. The Company will make quarterly payments at the annual rate of 3.97% and 2.53% under the purchase contracts and senior notes, respectively. The Company may defer the contract payments on the purchase contract, but not the senior notes, until the stock purchase date. In May 2007, the senior notes will be remarketed whereby the interest rate on the senior notes will be reset in order to generate sufficient remarketing proceeds to satisfy the Unit holder’s obligation under the purchase contract. If the senior notes are not successfully remarketed, then the Company will exercise its rights as a secured party and may retain or dispose of the senior notes to satisfy in full the holder’s obligation to purchase its ordinary shares under the purchase contracts.
The Company has entered into three new bilateral unsecured letter of credit facilities in 2004 to provide additional capacity to support the Company’s U.S. non-admitted business. The new facilities total $125.0 million of which $50.0 million was utilized at March 31, 2004.
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The following tables present the Company’s indebtedness under outstanding securities and lenders’ commitments as at March 31, 2004:
(U.S. dollars in thousands)
(Unaudited)
| | | | | | | | Payments Due By Period | |
| | | | | | | |
| |
Notes Payable And Debt | | Commitment | | In Use | | Year Of Expiry | | Less Than 1 Year | | 1 To 3 Years | | 4 To 5 Years | | After 5 Years | |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
364-day revolver | | $ | 675,000 | | $ | — | | | 2004 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
7.15% Senior Notes | | | 99,988 | | | 99,988 | | | 2005 | | | | | | 100,000 | | | | | | | |
6.58% Guaranteed Senior Notes | | | 255,000 | | | 255,000 | | | 2011 | | | | | | | | | | | | 255,000 | |
6.50% Guaranteed Senior Notes (1) | | | 597,521 | | | 597,521 | | | 2012 | | | | | | | | | | | | 600,000 | |
Zero Coupon Convertible Debentures (“CARZ”) (1) | | | 646,458 | | | 646,458 | | | 2021 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1,010,833 | |
Liquid Yield Option Notes (“LYONS”) (1) | | | 312,900 | | | 312,900 | | | 2021 | | | | | | | | | | | | 514,622 | |
2.53% Senior Notes (2) | | | 825,000 | | | 825,000 | | | 2009 | | | | | | | | | 825,000 | | | | |
| |
| |
| | | | |
| |
| |
| |
| |
Total | | $ | 3,411,956 | | $ | 2,736,867 | | | | | $ | — | | $ | 100,000 | | $ | 825,000 | | $ | 2,380,455 | |
| |
| |
| | | | |
| |
| |
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| |
______________
| (1) | | “Commitment” and “In Use” data represent March 31, 2004 accreted values. “Payments due by period” represents ultimate redemption values. The convertibles may be “put” or converted by the bondholders at various times prior to the 2021 redemption dates. The next “put” date is May 23, 2004 for the CARZ and September 7, 2004 for the LYONs. The Company may also choose to “call” the debt from May and September 2004 onwards for the CARZ and LYONS, respectively. |
| | | |
| (2) | | The 2.53% Senior Notes are a component of the Units issued in March 2004. In addition to the Senior Notes coupon of 2.53%, contract adjustment payments of 3.97% per annum will be paid on forward purchase contracts for ordinary shares for a total distribution per annum on the Units of 6.50%. The forward purchase contracts mature on May 15, 2007, and the Senior Notes will mature on May 15, 2009. |
The total pre-tax interest expense on the borrowings described above was $20.6 million and $22.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2004 and 2003, respectively.
The following table presents, as at March 31, 2004, the Company’s letter of credit facilities available, in use and when those facilities are due to expire:
(U.S. dollars in thousands)
(Unaudited)
| | | | | | | | Amount Of Commitment Expiration Per Period | |
| | | | | | | |
| |
Other Commercial Commitments | | Commitment | | In Use | | Year Of Expiry | | Less Than 1 Year | | 1 To 3 Years | | 4 To 5 Years | | After 5 Years | |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | | | | | | |
Letter of Credit Facilities | | $ | 3,680,593 | | $ | 2,838,912 | | | 2004 | | $ | 3,680,593 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | |
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| |
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| |
The Company has several letter of credit facilities provided on a syndicated and bilateral basis from commercial banks. These facilities are principally utilized to support non-admitted insurance and reinsurance operations in the United States and capital requirements at Lloyd’s. All of the commercial facilities are scheduled for renewal during the remainder of 2004. In addition to letters of credit, the Company has established insurance trusts in the U.S. that provide cedents with statutory relief under state insurance regulations in the U.S. It is anticipated that the commercial facilities will be renewed on expiry but such renewals are subject to the availability of credit from banks utilized by the Company. In the event that such credit support is insufficient, the Company could be required to provide alternative security to cedents. This could take the form of additional insurance trusts supported by the Company’s investment portfolio or funds withheld using the Company’s cash resources. The value of letters of credit required is driven by, among other things, loss development of existing reserves, the payment pattern of such reserves, the expansion of business written by the Company and the loss experience of such business.
For information regarding cross-default and certain other provisions in the Company’s debt and convertible securities documents, see Item 7 of the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003.
The Company has had several share repurchase programs in the past as part of its capital management strategy. On January 9, 2000, the Board of Directors authorized a program for the repurchase of shares up to $500.0 million. Under this plan, the Company has purchased 6.6 million shares at an aggregate cost of $364.6 million or an average cost of $55.24 per share. The Company has $135.4 million remaining in its share repurchase authorization. During the three months ended March 31, 2004, no shares were repurchased in the open market. The Company has repurchased shares from employees and directors in relation to withholding tax on restricted stock.
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CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PSLRA”) provides a “safe harbor” for forward-looking statements. Any prospectus, prospectus supplement, the Company’s Annual Report to ordinary shareholders, any proxy statement, any other Form 10-K, Form 10-Q or Form 8-K of the Company or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of the Company may include forward-looking statements which reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. Such statements include forward-looking statements both with respect to the Company in general, and to the insurance, reinsurance and financial products and services sectors in particular (both as to underwriting and investment matters). Statements which include the words “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “project”, “anticipate”, “will”, and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements for purposes of the PSLRA or otherwise.
All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements. The Company believes that these factors include, but are not limited to, the following: (i) the adequacy of rates and terms and conditions may not be as sustainable as the Company is currently projecting; (ii) the timely and full recoverability of reinsurance placed by the Company with third parties, or other amounts due to the Company, including, without limitation, amounts due to the Company from the Seller in connection with the Company’s acquisition of the Winterthur International operations; (iii) the projected amount of ceded reinsurance recoverables and the ratings and creditworthiness of reinsurers may change; (iv) the timing of claims payments being faster or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being slower than anticipated by the Company; (v) ineffectiveness or obsolescence of the Company’s business strategy due to changes in current or future market conditions; (vi) increased competition on the basis of pricing, capacity, coverage terms or other factors; (vii) greater frequency or severity of claims and loss activity, including as a result of natural or man-made catastrophic events, than the Company’s underwriting, reserving or investment practices anticipate based on historical experience or industry data; (viii) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets which adversely affect the performance of the Company’s investments and the Company’s access to such markets; (ix) the potential impact on the Company from government-mandated insurance coverage for acts of terrorism; (x) the potential impact of variable interest entities or other off-balance sheet arrangements on the Company; (xi) developments in bankruptcy proceedings or other developments related to bankruptcies of companies insofar as they affect property and casualty insurance and reinsurance coverages or claims that the Company may have as a counterparty; (xii) availability of borrowings and letters of credit under the Company’s credit facilities; (xiii) changes in regulation or tax laws applicable to the Company or its subsidiaries, brokers or customers; (xiv) acceptance of the Company’s products and services, including new products and services; (xv) changes in the availability, cost or quality of reinsurance; (xvi) changes in the distribution or placement of risks due to increased consolidation of insurance and reinsurance brokers; (xvii) loss of key personnel; (xviii) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (xix) changes in rating agency policies or practices; (xx) changes in accounting policies or practices or the application thereof; (xxi) legislative or regulatory developments; (xxii) changes in general economic conditions, including inflation, foreign currency exchange rates and other factors; (xxiii) the effects of business disruption or economic contraction due to war, terrorism or other hostilities; and (xxiv) the other factors set forth in the Company’s other documents on file with the SEC. The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK Except as described below, there have been no material changes in the Company’s market risk exposures, or how those exposures are managed, since December 31, 2003. The following discussion should be read in conjunction with “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” presented under Item 7A of the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003.
The Company enters into derivatives and other financial instruments primarily for risk management purposes. The Company’s derivative transactions can expose the Company to credit default swap risk, weather and energy risk, investment market risk and foreign currency exchange rate risk. The Company attempts to manage these risks based on guidelines established by senior management. Derivative instruments are carried at fair value with resulting changes in fair value recognized in income in the period in which they occur.
Value-at-risk (“VaR”) is one of the tools used by management to estimate potential losses in fair values using historical rates, market movements and credit spreads to estimate the volatility and correlation of these factors to calculate the potential loss that could occur over a defined period of time given a certain probability.
This risk management discussion and the estimated amounts generated from the sensitivity and VaR analyses presented in this document are forward-looking statements of market risk assuming certain adverse market conditions occur. Actual results in the future may differ materially from these estimated results due to, among other things, actual developments in the global financial markets. The results of analysis used by the Company to assess and mitigate risk should not be considered projections of future events of losses. See generally “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.”
Credit Default Swaps
The Company has written certain financial guaranty transactions in derivative or swap form. The Company does not actively trade these transactions and generally issues and holds these contracts to maturity. Changes in fair value can result from changes in market credit spreads, supply and demand for similar type instruments, changes in future loss and/or recovery estimates, interest rates and credit rating upgrades or downgrades. The Company therefore is at risk for changes in fair value due to changes in any of the above factors.
Weather and Energy Market Risk
The Company offers weather and energy risk management products in insurance or derivative form to end-users, while managing the risks in the over-the-counter and exchange traded derivatives markets in a weather and energy derivatives trading portfolio.
Fair values for the Company’s natural gas derivative contracts are determined through the use of quoted market prices. As quoted market prices are not widely available in the weather derivative market, management uses available market data and internal pricing models based upon consistent statistical methodologies to estimate fair values. Estimating fair value of instruments which do not have quoted market prices requires management judgment in determining amounts which could reasonably be expected to be received from, or paid to, a third party in settlement of the contracts. The amounts could be materially different from the amounts that might be realized in an actual sale transaction. Fair values are subject to change in the near-term and reflect management’s best estimate based on various factors including, but not limited to, realized and forecasted weather conditions, changes in commodity prices, changes in interest rates and other market factors.
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The following table summarizes the movement in the fair value of weather and energy contracts outstanding during the three months ended March 31, 2004:
(U.S. dollars in thousands)
| | (Unaudited) Three Months Ended March 31, 2004
| |
| |
| |
Fair value of contracts outstanding, beginning of the year | | $ | (11,490 | ) |
Option premiums received, net of premiums realized (1) | | | 15,588 | |
Reclassification of settled contracts to realized (2) | | | 34,215 | |
Other changes in fair value (3) | | | (25,944 | ) |
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| |
Fair value of contracts outstanding, end of period | | $ | 12,369 | |
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| (1) | | The Company collected $5.4 million of paid premiums and realized $21.0 million of premiums on expired transactions for a net increase in the balance sheet derivative asset of $15.6 million. |
| | | |
| (2) | | The Company paid $34.2 million to settle derivative positions during the quarter resulting in a reclassification of this amount from unrealized to realized and a reduction in the derivative liability on the balance sheet. |
| | | |
| (3) | | This represents the effects of changes in commodity prices, the time value of options and other valuation adjustments of $25.9 million on the Company’s derivative positions, primarily attributable to hedges of the positions that realized $21.0 million of premiums. |
The change in the fair value of contracts outstanding at March 31, 2004 as compared to the beginning of the year is primarily due to the expiration of natural gas positions which were not replaced due to management’s decision to reduce the size of its natural gas portfolio.
The following table summarizes the maturity of contracts outstanding as of March 31, 2004:
(U.S. dollars in thousands)
(Unaudited)
Source Of Fair Value | | Less Than 1 Year | | 1-3 Years | | 4-5 Years | | Greater Than 5 Years | | Total Fair Value | |
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| |
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Prices actively quoted | | $ | (6,781 | ) | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | (6,781 | ) |
Prices based on models and other valuation methods | | | 3,754 | | | 12,749 | | | 2,647 | | | | | | 19,150 | |
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Total fair value of contracts outstanding | | $ | (3,027 | ) | $ | 12,749 | | $ | 2,647 | | $ | — | | $ | 12,369 | |
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The Company manages its weather and energy portfolio through the employment of a variety of strategies. These include geographical and directional diversification of risk exposures and direct hedging within the capital and reinsurance markets. Risk management is undertaken on a product portfolio-wide basis, to maintain a portfolio that the Company believes is well diversified and which remains within the aggregate risk tolerance established by the Company’s senior management.
The Company’s aggregate average, low and high seasonal VaR amounts for its weather risk management portfolio, calculated at a 99% confidence level, during the period ended March 31, 2004 were $168.5 million, $154.1 million and $187.0 million, respectively. The corresponding levels for the weather risk management portfolio during the period ended March 31, 2003 were $164.9 million, $154.6 million and $175.6 million, respectively. The Company calculates its aggregate VaR by summing the VaR amounts for each of its upcoming seasonal portfolios. The Company’s aggregation methodology yields a conservative aggregate portfolio VaR, given that current weather events and patterns have an immaterial effect on expectations for future seasons and the Company could therefore greatly reduce or eliminate its VaR on future seasons by selling its positions prior to the beginning of a season. At present, the Company’s VaR calculation does not exceed $90.0 million prior to any season and $75.0 million at the inception of any one season.
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For the natural gas portfolio, VaR is calculated using a one-day holding period. Management has established a daily VaR limit for this portfolio of $0.3 million. The Company’s average, low and high daily VaR amounts, calculated at a 99% confidence level, during the period ended March 31, 2004 were $0.2 million, $0.1 million and $0.2 million, respectively. The corresponding amounts during the period ended March 31, 2003, under the previously existing daily limit of $3.5 million, were $2.3 million, $2.0 and $2.7 million, respectively.
For electricity generation outage insurance products, VaR is calculated using an annual holding period. Management has established an annual VaR limit of $25 million for this book of business. The Company’s average, low and high annual VaR amounts, calculated at a 99% confidence level, during the period ended March 31, 2004 were $2.8 million, $2.6 million, and $2.9 million, respectively. The first transactions under this product line were executed at the end of the quarter ended March 31, 2003 and the annual VaR was $1.3 million.
Investment Market Risk
The Company’s investment portfolio consists of exposures to fixed income securities, equities, alternative investments, derivatives, business and other investments and cash. These securities and investments are denominated in both U.S. dollar and foreign currencies.
Through the structure of the Company’s investment portfolio, the Company’s book value is directly affected by changes in the valuations of the securities and investments held in the investment portfolio. These valuation changes reflect changes in fixed income security prices (e.g. slope and curvature of the yield curves, volatility of interest rates, credit spreads and mortgage prepayment speeds), equity prices (e.g. changes in prices and volatilities of individual securities, equity baskets and equity indices) and foreign currency exchange rates (e.g. changes in spot prices, forward prices and volatilities of currency rates). Market risk therefore arises due to the uncertainty surrounding the future valuations of these different assets, the factors that impact their values and the impact that this could have on the Company’s book value.
The Company generally seeks to manage the risks of the investment portfolio through a combination of asset class, country, industry and security level diversification and investment manager allocations. Further, individual security and issuer exposures are generally controlled and monitored at the investment portfolio level, via specific investment constraints outlined in investment guidelines and agreed with the appropriate external investment professionals. Additional constraints may be agreed with the external investment professionals that may address exposures to eligible securities, prohibited investments/transactions, credit quality and general concentration limits.
The Company’s direct use of investment derivatives includes futures, forwards, swaps and option contracts that derive their value from underlying assets, indices, references rates or a combination of these factors. When investment guidelines allow for the use of derivatives, these can generally only be used for the purposes of managing interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk and credit risk, provided the use of such instruments is incorporated in the overall portfolio duration, spread, convexity and other relevant portfolio metrics. The direct use of derivatives is not permitted to economically leverage the portfolio outside of the stated guidelines. Derivatives may also be used to add value to the investment portfolio where market inefficiencies are perceived to exist, to utilize cash holdings to purchase equity indexed derivatives and to adjust the duration of a portfolio of fixed income securities to match the duration of related deposit liabilities.
Investment Value-At-Risk
In the third quarter of 2003, the Company introduced a new, more widely used risk management system to generate the investment VaR and to stress test the investment portfolio. Although the overall methodology is consistent between the two systems, there are certain differences between these systems relating to security pricing models, time series, time periods and proxies used for individual instruments. Accordingly, the VaR for the investment portfolio and the stress tests on the investment portfolio are not directly comparable to periods prior to the fourth quarter of 2003.
The VaR of the total investment portfolio at March 31, 2004, based on a 95% confidence level with a one month holding period, was approximately $578.3 million. The VaR of all investment related derivatives as at March 31, 2004 was approximately $11.4 million. The Company’s investment portfolio VaR as at March 31, 2004 is not necessarily indicative of future VaR levels.
To complement the VaR analysis which is based on normal market environments, the Company considers the impact on the investment portfolio in several different historical stress periods to analyze the effect of unusual market conditions. The Company establishes certain historical stress test scenarios which are applied to the actual investment portfolio. As these stress tests and estimated gains and losses are based on historical events, they will not
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necessarily reflect future stress events or gains and losses from such events. The results of the stress test scenarios are reviewed on a regular basis to ensure they reflect current shareholders equity, market conditions and the Company’s total risk profile. Given the investment portfolio allocations as at March 31, 2004, the Company would expect to lose approximately 5.6% of the portfolio if the most damaging event stress tested was repeated, all other things held equal. Given the investment portfolio allocations as at March 31, 2004, the Company would expect to gain approximately 18.3% on the portfolio if the most favorable event stress tested was repeated, all other things held equal. The Company assumes that no action is taken during the stress period to either liquidate or rebalance the portfolio and believes that this fairly reflects the potential decreased liquidity that is often associated with stressed market environments.
Fixed Income Portfolio
The Company’s fixed income portfolio is exposed to credit and interest rate risk through its portfolio of debt securities. The fixed income portfolio includes fixed maturities, short-term investments, cash and cash equivalents and net payable for investments purchased.
As at March 31, 2004, the value of the Company’s fixed income portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents and net payable for investments purchased, was approximately $24.0 billion as compared to approximately $18.2 billion as at March 31, 2003. As at March 31, 2004, the fixed income portfolio consisted of approximately 88.4% of the total investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents, and net payable for investments purchased) as compared to approximately 87.3% as at March 31, 2003.
The table below shows the Company’s fixed income portfolio by credit rating in percentage terms of the Company’s total fixed income portfolio (including fixed maturities, short-term investments, cash and cash equivalents and net payable for investments purchased) as at March 31, 2004.
| Total |
AAA | 56.5% |
AA | 14.0% |
A | 15.2% |
BBB | 9.9% |
BB & BELOW | 4.0% |
NR | 0.4% |
|
|
Total | 100.0% |
At March 31, 2004 the average credit quality of the Company’s total fixed income portfolio was “AA”.
As at March 31, 2004, the top 10 corporate holdings represented approximately 7.5% of the total fixed income portfolio and approximately 15% of all corporate holdings. The top 10 corporate holdings listed below utilizes a conservative approach to aggregation as it includes unsecured as well as securitized, credit enhanced and collateralized securities issued by parent companies and their affiliates.
Top 10 Corporate Holdings (2) | | Percentage of Total Fixed Income Portfolio (1) | |
| |
| |
| | | | |
Citigroup Inc | | | 1.15% | |
JPMorgan Chase & Co | | | 1.10% | |
Bank of America Corporation | | | 0.99% | |
General Electric Company | | | 0.71% | |
Morgan Stanley | | | 0.69% | |
General Motors Corporation | | | 0.68% | |
DaimlerChrysler AG | | | 0.58% | |
HSBC Holdings plc | | | 0.53% | |
Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. | | | 0.52% | |
Bank One Corp | | | 0.51% | |
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| (1) | | Including fixed maturities, short-term investments, cash and cash equivalents and net payable for investments purchased. |
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| (2) | | Corporate holdings include parent and affiliated companies that issue fixed income securities. In some cases a portion of the market value may be invested in bonds that are securitized or have sufficient credit enhancement that provides a long-term credit rating that is higher than the rating of the unsecured debt of the parent company. |
The Company’s fixed income portfolio is exposed to interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is the price sensitivity of a fixed income security to changes in interest rates. The hypothetical case of an immediate 100 basis point adverse parallel shift in global bond curves as at March 31, 2004 would decrease the fair value of the Company's fixed income portfolio by approximately 4.6% or $1.1 billion as compared to approximately 5.1% or $0.8 billion as at March 31, 2003. Based on historical observations, it is unlikely that all global yield curves would shift in the same direction, by the same amount and at the same time.
Equity Portfolio
As at March 31, 2004, the Company’s equity portfolio was $721.1 million as compared to $530.3 million as at March 31, 2003. As at March 31, 2004, the Company’s allocation to equity securities was approximately 2.7% of the total investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents, accrued investment income and net payable for investments purchased) as compared to approximately 2.5% as at March 31, 2003.
As at March 31, 2004, approximately 56% of the equity portfolio was invested in U.S. companies as compared to approximately 65% as at March 31, 2003. As at March 31, 2004, the top ten equity holdings represented approximately 8.7% of the Company’s total equity portfolio as compared to approximately 6.4% as at March 31, 2003.
The Company’s equity portfolio is exposed to price risk. Equity price risk is the potential loss arising from decreases in the market value of equities. An immediate hypothetical 10% change in the value of each equity position would affect the fair value of the portfolio by approximately $72.1 million as at March 31, 2004 as compared to $53.0 million as at March 31, 2003.
Alternative Investment Portfolio
The Company’s alternative investment portfolio had approximately 100 separate investments funds in different funds at March 31, 2004 with a total portfolio of $1.6 billion representing approximately 5.6% of the total investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents, accrued investment income and net payable for investments purchased) as compared to March 31, 2003 where the Company had approximately 100 separate fund investments with a total exposure of $1.3 billion representing approximately 6.3% of the total investment portfolio.
As at March 31, 2004, the alternative investment style allocation was 27% in arbitrage strategies, 39% in directional/tactical strategies, 25% in event driven strategies and 9% in multi-strategy strategies.
Private Investment Portfolio
As at March 31, 2004, the Company’s exposure to private investments was approximately $205 million compared to $234 million as at March 31, 2003. As at March 31, 2004, the Company’s exposure to private investments consisted of approximately 0.8% of the total investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents, accrued investment income and net payable for investments purchased), as compared to 1.1% as at March 31, 2003.
Bond and Stock Index Futures Exposure
As at March 31, 2004, bond and stock index futures outstanding were $36.7 million with underlying investments having a market value of $388.1 million. A 10% appreciation or depreciation of these derivative instruments would have resulted in realized gains and realized losses of $3.7 million respectively. The Company reduces its exposure to these futures through offsetting transactions, including options and forwards.
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Foreign Currency Exchange Risk
The Company uses foreign exchange contracts to manage its exposure to the effects of fluctuating foreign currencies on the value of certain of its foreign currency fixed maturities and equity investments. These contracts are not designated as specific hedges for financial reporting purposes and therefore, realized and unrealized gains and losses on these contracts are recorded in income in the period in which they occur. These contracts generally have maturities of three months or less. At March 31, 2004, forward foreign exchange contracts with notional principal amounts totaling $236.4 million were outstanding. The fair value of these contracts as at March 31, 2004 was $236.3 million with unrealized gains of $0.2 million. For the quarter ended March 31, 2004, realized gains of $6.2 million and unrealized losses of $3.4 million were recorded in net realized and unrealized gains and losses on derivative instruments. Based on this value, a 10% appreciation or depreciation of the U.S. dollar as compared to the level of other currencies under contract at March 31, 2004 would have resulted in approximately $33.7 million of unrealized gains and $50.8 million in unrealized losses, respectively.
The Company attempts to manage the exchange volatility arising on certain costs denominated in foreign currencies. Throughout the year, forward contracts are entered into to acquire foreign currencies at an agreed rate in the future. At March 31, 2004, the Company had forward contracts outstanding for the purchase of $25.3 million Euros and $122.5 million GBP at fixed rates. The unrealized loss on these contracts at March 31, 2004 was $1.9 million and $3.9 million, respectively.
Credit Risk
The Company is exposed to credit risk in the event of non-performance by the other parties to the forward contracts, however the Company does not anticipate non-performance. The difference between the notional principal amounts and the associated market value is the Company’s maximum credit exposure.
Embedded Derivatives
Certain features embedded in the CARZ and LYONs are considered derivatives and are subject to fair value. There is currently minimal fair value ascribed to these features as the contingent events related to these features are considered unlikely to occur.
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES
The Company carried out an evaluation, under the supervision and with the participation of the Company’s management, including the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, of the effectiveness of disclosure controls and procedures pursuant to Rules 13a-15 and 15d-15 promulgated under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that the disclosure controls and procedures are effective to provide reasonable assurance that all material information relating to the Company required to be filed in this report has been made known to them in a timely fashion. There have been no changes in internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the most recent fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, internal control over financial reporting.
The Company’s management, including the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, does not expect that the Company’s disclosure controls or its internal controls will prevent all errors and all fraud. Further, the design of a control system must reflect the fact that there are resource constraints, and the benefits of controls must be considered relative to their costs. As a result of the inherent limitations in all control systems, no evaluation of controls can provide absolute assurance that all control issues and instances of fraud, if any, within the Company have been detected. These inherent limitations include the realities that judgments in decision-making can be faulty, and that breakdowns can occur because of simple error or mistake. As a result of the inherent limitations in a cost-effective control system, misstatements due to error or fraud may occur and not be detected. Accordingly, the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures are designed to provide reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the disclosure controls and procedures are met.
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XL CAPITAL LTD
PART II — OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
On March 17, 2004, current and former directors and officers of the Company were named as defendants in a putative “shareholder derivative complaint” (Marilyn Clark, Derivatively on Behalf of XL Capital Ltd v. Brian O’Hara et al.) filed in Connecticut Superior Court by a California shareholder (the “Action”). The Company is named as a nominal defendant. The complaint alleges several causes of action including breach of fiduciary duty, abuse of control, gross mismanagement, waste of corporate assets and unjust enrichment during the time period “from November 2001 to the present” (the “Relevant Period”). The Action alleges that the Company continually maintained inadequate loss reserves for its NAC Re subsidiary (now known as XL Reinsurance America, Inc.) during the Relevant Period and that, as a consequence, the Company’s earnings and assets were materially overstated. While no relief is sought against the Company, the relief sought against certain of the defendants includes profits made on sales of the Company's shares over a two year period. The time for the defendants to respond to the complaint has not occurred and there has been no discovery in the Action. The defendants intend to vigorously defend the claims asserted against them.
The Company is also subject to litigation and arbitration in the normal course of its business. These lawsuits and arbitrations principally involve claims on policies and are typical for the Company and for the property and casualty insurance and reinsurance industry in general. Such legal proceedings are considered in connection with the Company’s loss and loss expense reserves. Reserves in varying amounts may or may not be established in respect of particular claims proceedings based on many factors, including the legal merits thereof and other factors. In addition to claims litigation, the Company and its subsidiaries are subject to lawsuits in the normal course of business that do not arise from or directly relate to claims on insurance or reinsurance policies.
The Company believes that the ultimate outcomes of all outstanding litigation and arbitration will not have a material adverse effect on its consolidated financial condition, future operating results and/or liquidity, although an adverse resolution of a number of these items could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s results of operations in a particular fiscal quarter or year.
ITEM 6. EXHIBITS AND REPORTS ON FORM 8-K
(a) Exhibits
4.1 | | First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 23, 2004, to the Indenture, dated January 23, 2003, between the Registrant and U.S. Bank National Association, as Trustee, incorporated by reference to the Company’s current report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004. |
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4.2 | | Purchase Contract Agreement, dated March 23, 2004, between the Registrant and U.S. Bank National Association, as Purchase Contract Agent, incorporated by reference to the Company’s current report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004. |
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4.3 | | Pledge Agreement, dated March 23, 2004, by and among the Registrant and U.S. Bank Trust National Association, as Collateral Agent, Custodial Agent and Securities Intermediary, and U.S. Bank National Association, as Purchase Contract Agent, incorporated by reference to the Company’s current report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004. |
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4.4 | | Form of Normal Units Certificate (included in Exhibit 4.2 hereto), incorporated by reference to the Company's current report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004. |
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4.5 | | Form of Stripped Units Certificate (included in Exhibit 4.2 hereto), incorporated by reference to the Company's current report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004. |
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4.6 | | Form of Senior Note (included in Exhibit 4.1 hereto), incorporated by reference to the Company's current report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004. |
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10.1 | | Nicholas M. Brown Supplemental Retirement Benefit Agreement dated March 26, 2004. |
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10.2 | | Letter of Credit Facility and Reimbursement Agreement, dated as of December 29, 2003, by and between XL Insurance (Bermuda) Ltd, XL Capital Ltd, XL Re Ltd, and X.L. America, Inc. as the Guarantors, and Mellon Bank, N.A., as the Bank. |
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10.3 | | Offer Letter for a Committed Line of Credit, dated as of April 12, 2004 between Credit Lyonnais New York Branch as the Lender, and XL Capital Ltd, X.L. America, Inc., XL Insurance (Bermuda) Ltd and XL Re Ltd as the Account Parties. |
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31 | | Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a) Certifications. |
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32 | | Section 1350 Certification. |
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99.1 | | XL Capital Assurance Inc. condensed consolidated financial statements (unaudited) for the three month periods ended March 31, 2004 and 2003. |
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99.2 | | XL Financial Assurance Ltd. condensed consolidated financial statements (unaudited) for the three month periods ended March 31, 2004 and 2003. |
(b) Reports on Form-8-K
Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 24, 2004, under Item 5 and Item 7 thereof.
Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 18, 2004, under Item 5 and Item 7 thereof.
Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 16, 2004, under Item 5 and Item 7 thereof.
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SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
| | XL CAPITAL LTD | |
| | (Registrant) | |
| | | |
Dated: May 10, 2004 | | /s/ BRIAN M. O’HARA | |
| |
| |
| | Brian M. O’Hara | |
| | President and Chief Executive Officer | |
| | | |
Dated: May 10, 2004 | | /s/ JERRY DE ST. PAER | |
| |
| |
| | Jerry de St. Paer | |
| | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | |
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