| Liability for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | LIABILITY FOR UNPAID LOSSES AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES Set forth in the following tables is information about unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses as of December 31, 2018 , net of reinsurance and estimated subrogation, as well as cumulative claim counts and the total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims included within the liability for unpaid losses and LAE (in thousands). The liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses includes an amount determined from loss reports and individual cases and an amount, based on past experience, for losses incurred but not reported. Such liabilities are necessarily based on estimates and, although management believes that the amount is adequate, the ultimate liability may be in excess of or less than the amounts provided. The methods for making such estimates and for establishing the resulting liability are continually reviewed, and any adjustments are reflected in earnings currently. The reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses is reported net of receivables for salvage and subrogation of approximately $99 million and $85 million at December 31, 2018 and 2017 , respectively. The information about unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for the years ended December 31, 2014 to 2016 , is presented as supplementary information and is unaudited. As of Total of Incurred-but-Not- Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Incurred Loss and Defense & Cost Containment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Development (Redundancy) Cumulative Number For the Years Ended December 31, on Reported Claims of Reported Claims Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Unaudited) 2014 $ 111,739 $ 118,289 $ 112,251 $ 112,278 $ 119,028 $ (5,850 ) 22,442 2015 170,381 187,431 194,600 213,860 (6,744 ) 26,760 2016 269,814 286,252 324,577 (6,380 ) 40,354 2017 303,944 334,734 (12,950 ) 119,465 2018 334,368 48,915 50,021 Total $ 1,326,567 Cumulative Paid Loss and Defense & Cost Containment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Unaudited) 2014 $ 69,703 $ 112,059 $ 119,798 $ 122,579 $ 124,712 2015 115,328 191,481 208,592 219,941 2016 204,122 297,374 328,286 2017 205,200 328,105 2018 253,008 Total $ 1,254,052 All outstanding liabilities before 2014, net of reinsurance (5,133 ) Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 67,382 Set forth is the following reconciliation of the net incurred and paid claims development tables to the liability for unpaid losses and LAE in the consolidated Balance Sheet as of December 31, 2018 (in thousands): December 31, 2018 Liabilities for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 67,382 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims 393,365 Liabilities for adjusting and other claim payments 12,082 Total gross liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expense $ 472,829 Set forth is the supplementary information about average historical claims duration as of December 31, 2018 : Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance Years 1 2 3 4 5 61.9 % 18.8 % 9.1 % 5.3 % 2.4 % Set forth in the following table is the change in liability for unpaid losses and LAE for the periods presented (in thousands): Years Ended December 31, 2018 2017 2016 Balance at beginning of year $ 248,425 $ 58,494 $ 98,840 Less: Reinsurance recoverable (182,405 ) (106 ) (13,540 ) Net balance at beginning of period 66,020 58,388 85,300 Incurred (recovered) related to: Current year 314,933 322,929 305,919 Prior years 99,522 27,499 (4,690 ) Total incurred 414,455 350,428 301,229 Paid related to: Current year 221,708 215,274 229,761 Prior years 179,303 127,522 98,380 Total paid 401,011 342,796 328,141 Net balance at end of period 79,464 66,020 58,388 Plus: Reinsurance recoverable 393,365 182,405 106 Balance at end of year $ 472,829 $ 248,425 $ 58,494 During 2018 , the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, prior to reinsurance, increased by $224.4 million from $248.4 million as of December 31, 2017 to $472.8 million as of December 31, 2018 . This increase was primarily a result of increased liabilities associated with Hurricanes Michael and Florence during 2018, and an increase in the expected liability associated with Hurricane Irma. Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred during 2018 for Hurricane Irma were substantially ceded to reinsurers, and 2018 hurricanes Michael and Florence resulted in a net retention of $14.8 million after reinsurance. Other factors leading to the increase in incurred losses during 2018 include the increase in our underlying exposure due to increased writings in Florida and other states, as well as prior year adverse development as noted above of $99.5 million , net of reinsurance. As a result of changes in estimates of insured events in prior years, the loss and loss adjustment expense, net of reinsurance, increased by $99.5 million and $27.5 million during the year ended December 31, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Prior year development was primarily impacted by Hurricane Irma companion claims, which propagated into non-cat systemic claims representation in Florida, resulting in an increase in prior year development. This strengthening resulted from an increase in the frequency and severity of non-cat claims spanning several prior accident years, including reopened claims, newly reported claims, increased litigation and increased loss settlements of claims above carried values. This reflects the trends and dynamics in the Florida marketplace attributable to assignment of benefits and the increased solicitation of prior years’ claims in the post Irma environment. Total reserve re-estimates conducted in 2016 resulted in favorable development of $4.7 million in 2016 . The favorable development in 2016 was principally the result of increases in estimated subrogation recoveries. Basis for estimating liabilities for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses The Company establishes a liability to provide for the estimated unpaid portion of the costs of paying losses and LAE under insurance policies the Insurance Entities have issued. Predominately all of the Company’s claims relate to the Company’s core product, homeowners insurance and the various policy forms in which it is available. The liability for unpaid losses and LAE consists of the following: • Case reserves, which are the reserves established by the claims examiner on reported claims. • Incurred but not reported (“IBNR”), which are anticipated losses expected to be reported to the Company and development of reported claims, including anticipated recoveries from either subrogation or ceded reinsurance. • LAE, which are the estimated expenses associated with the settlement of case reserves, and IBNR. Underwriting results are significantly influenced by the Company’s practices in establishing its estimated liability for unpaid losses and LAE. The liability is an estimate of amounts necessary to ultimately settle all current and future claims and LAE on claims occurring during the policy coverage period each year as of the financial statement date. Characteristics of Reserves The liability for unpaid losses and LAE, also known as reserves, are established based on estimates of the ultimate future amounts needed to settle claims, either known or unknown, less losses that have been paid to date. Claims are typically reported promptly with relatively little reporting lag between the date of occurrence and the date the loss is reported. The Company’s claim settlement data suggests that the Company’s typical insurance claims have an average settlement time of less than one year. Reserves are estimated for both reported and unreported claims, and include estimates of all expenses associated with processing and settling all incurred claims, including consideration for anticipated subrogation recoveries that will offset future loss payments. The Company updates reserve estimates periodically as new information becomes available or as events emerge that may affect the resolution of unsettled claims. Changes in prior year reserve estimates (reserve re-estimates), which may be material, are determined by comparing updated estimates of ultimate losses to prior estimates, and the differences are recorded as losses and LAE in the Consolidated Statements of Income in the period such changes are determined. Estimating the ultimate cost of losses and LAE is an inherently uncertain and complex process involving a high degree of subjective judgment and is subject to the interpretation and usage of numerous uncertain variables as discussed further below. Reserves for losses and LAE are determined in three primary sectors. These sectors are (1) the estimation of reserves for Florida non-catastrophe losses, (2) hurricane losses, and (3) non-Florida non-catastrophe losses and any other losses. Evaluations are performed for gross loss, LAE and subrogation separately, and on a net and direct basis for each sector. The analyses for non-catastrophe losses are further separated into data groupings of like exposure or type of loss. These groups are property damage on homeowner policy forms HO-3 and HO-8 combined, property damage on homeowner policy forms HO-4 and HO-6 combined, property damage on dwelling fire policies, sinkhole claims, and water damage claims. Although these sectors are aggregated into the single tables noted above, analyses are performed in these three sectors, due to the analogous nature of the product and similar claim settlement traits. As claims are reported, the claims department establishes an estimate of the liability for each individual claim called case reserves. For certain liability claims of sufficient size and complexity, the field adjusting staff establishes case reserve estimates of ultimate cost, based on their assessment of facts and circumstances related to each individual claim. Opportunities for subrogation are also identified for further analysis and collection. For other claims which occur in large volumes and settle in a relatively short time frame, it is not practical or efficient to set case reserves for each claim, and an initial case reserve of $2,500 is set for these claims. In the normal course of business, we may also supplement our claims processes by utilizing third party adjusters, appraisers, engineers, inspectors, other professionals and information sources to assess and settle catastrophe and non-catastrophe related claims. The Actuarial Methods used to Develop Reserve Estimates Reserve estimates for both unpaid losses and LAE are derived using several different actuarial estimation methods in order to provide the actuary with multiple predictive viewpoints to consider for each of the sectors discussed above. Each of the methods has merit, because they each provide insight into emerging patterns. These methods are each variations on two primary actuarial techniques: “chain ladder development” techniques and “counts and average” techniques. The “chain ladder development” actuarial technique is an estimation process in which historical payment and reserving patterns are applied to actual paid and/or reported amounts (paid losses, recovered subrogation or LAE plus individual case reserves established by claim adjusters) for an accident period to create an estimate of how losses or recoveries are likely to develop over time. The “counts and average” technique includes an evaluation of historical and projected costs per claim, and late-reported claim counts, for open claims by accident period. An accident period refers to classification of claims based on the date in which the claims occurred, regardless of the date they were reported to the company. These analyses are used to prepare estimates of required reserves for payments or recoveries to be made in the future. Transactions are organized into half-year accident periods for purposes of the reserve estimates. Key data elements used to determine our reserve estimates include historical claim counts, loss and LAE payments, subrogation received, case reserves, earned policy exposures, and the related development factors applicable to this data. The first method for estimating unpaid amounts for each sector is a chain ladder method called the paid development method. This method is based upon the assumption that the relative change in a given accident period’s paid losses from one evaluation point to the next is similar to the relative change in prior periods’ paid losses at similar evaluation points. In utilizing this method, actual 6-month historical loss activity is evaluated. Successive periods can be arranged to form a triangle of data. Paid-to-Paid (“PTP”) development factors are calculated to measure the change in cumulative paid losses, LAE, and subrogation recoveries, from one evaluation point to the next. These historical PTP factors form the basis for selecting the PTP factors used in projecting the current valuation of losses to an ultimate basis. In addition, a tail factor is selected to account for loss development beyond the observed experience. The tail factor is based on trends shown in the data and consideration of industry loss development benchmarks. Utilization of a paid development method has the advantage of avoiding potential distortions in the data due to changes in case reserving methodology. This method’s implicit assumption is that the rate of payment of claims has been relatively consistent over time, and that there have been no material changes in the rate at which claims have been reported or settled. In instances where changes in settlement rates are detected, the PTP factors are adjusted accordingly, utilizing appropriate actuarial techniques. These adjusted techniques each produce additional development method estimates for consideration. A second method is the reported development method. This method is similar to the paid development method; however, case reserves are considered in the analysis. Successive periods of reported loss estimates (including paid loss, subrogation recoveries, paid LAE and held case reserves) are organized similar to the paid development method in order to evaluate and select Report- to-Report (“RTR”) development factors. This method has the advantage of recognizing the information provided by current case reserves. Its implicit assumption is that the relative adequacy of case reserves is consistent over time, and that there have been no material changes in the rate at which claims have been reported or settled. In cases where significant reserve strengthening or other changes have occurred, RTR factors are adjusted accordingly, utilizing appropriate actuarial techniques. A third method is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (“B-F”) method, which is also utilized for estimating unpaid loss and LAE amounts. Each B-F technique is a blend of chain ladder development methods and an expected loss method, whereby the total reserve estimate equals the unpaid portion of a predetermined expected unpaid ultimate loss projection. The unpaid portion is determined based on assumptions underlying the development methods. As an experience year matures and expected unreported (or unpaid) losses become smaller, the initial expected loss assumption becomes gradually less important. This has the advantage of stability, but it is less responsive to actual results that have emerged. Two parameters are needed in each application of the B-F method: an initial assumption of expected losses and the expected reporting or payment pattern. Initial expected losses for each accident period other than the current year is determined using the estimated ultimate loss ratio from the prior analysis. Initial expected losses for the current year’s accident periods are determined based on trends in historical loss ratios, rate changes, and underlying loss trends. The expected reporting pattern is based on the reported or paid loss development method described above. This method is often used in situations where the reported loss experience is relatively immature or lacks sufficient credibility for the application of other methods. A fourth method, called the counts and averages method, is utilized for estimates of loss, subrogation and LAE for each Florida sector. In this method, an estimate of unpaid losses or expenses is determined by separately projecting ultimate reported claim counts and ultimate claim severities (cost or recoveries per claim) on open and unreported claims for each accident period. Typically, chain ladder development methods are used to project ultimate claim counts and claim severities based on historical data using the same methodology described in the paid and reported development methods above. Estimated ultimate losses are then calculated as the product of the two items. This method is intended to avoid data distortions that may exist with the other methods for the most recent years as a result of changes in case reserve levels, settlement rates and claims handling fees. In addition, it may provide insight into the drivers of loss experience. For example, this method is utilized for sinkhole losses due to unique settlement patterns that have emerged since the passage of legislation that codified claim settlement practices with respect to sinkhole related claims and subsequent policy form changes we implemented. The method is also utilized to evaluate segments impacted by the implementation of our Fast Track Initiative, which is an initiative to settle claims on an accelerated basis. These claims are expected to be reported and settled at different rates and ultimate values than historically observed, requiring a departure from traditional development methodologies. The implicit assumption of these techniques is that the selected factors and averages combine to form development patterns or severity trends that are predictive of future loss development of incurred claims. In selecting relevant parameters utilized in each estimation method, due consideration is given to how the patterns of development change from one year to the next over the course of several consecutive years of recent history. Furthermore, the effects of inflation and other anticipated trends are considered in the reserving process in order to generate selections that include adequate provisions to estimate the cost of claims that settle in the future. Finally, in addition to paid loss, reported loss, subrogation recoveries, and LAE development triangles, various diagnostic triangles, such as triangles showing historical patterns in the ratio of paid-to-reported losses and closed-to-reported claim counts are prepared. These diagnostic triangles are utilized in order to monitor the stability of various determinants of loss development, such as consistency in claims settlement and case reserving. Estimates of unpaid losses for hurricane experience are developed using a combination of company-specific and industry patterns, due to the relatively infrequent nature of storms and the high severity typically associated with them. Development patterns and other benchmarks are based on consideration of all reliable information, such as historical events with similar landfall statistics, the range of estimates developed from industry catastrophe models, and claim reporting and handling statistics from our field units. It is common for the company to update its projection of unpaid losses and LAE for a significant hurricane event on a monthly, or even weekly basis, for the first 6-months following an event. Estimation methods described above each produce estimates of ultimate losses and LAE. Based on the results of these methods, a single estimate (commonly referred to as an actuarial point/central estimate) of the ultimate loss and LAE is selected accordingly for each accident-year claim grouping. Estimated IBNR reserves are determined by subtracting reported losses from the selected ultimate loss, and the paid LAE from the ultimate LAE. The estimated loss IBNR reserves are added to case reserves to determine total estimated unpaid losses. Note that estimated IBNR reserves can be negative for an individual accident-year claim grouping if the selected ultimate loss includes a provision for anticipated subrogation, or if there is a possibility that case reserves are overstated. No case reserves are carried for LAE, therefore the estimated LAE IBNR reserves equal the total estimated unpaid LAE. For each sector, the reserving methods are carried out on both a net and direct basis in order to estimate liabilities accordingly. When selecting a single actuarial point/central estimate on a net basis, careful consideration is given for the reinsurance arrangements that were in place during each accident year, exposure period and segment being reviewed. How Reserve Estimates are Established and Updated Reserve estimates are developed for both open claims and unreported claims. The actuarial methods described above are used to derive claim settlement patterns by determining development factors to be applied to specific data elements. Development factors are calculated for data elements such as claim counts reported and settled, paid losses and paid losses combined with case reserves, loss expense payments, and subrogation recoveries. Historical development patterns for these data elements are used as the assumptions to calculate reserve estimates. Often, different estimates are prepared for each detailed component, incorporating alternative analyses of changing claim settlement patterns and other influences on losses, from which a best estimate is selected for each component, occasionally incorporating additional analyses and actuarial judgment as described above. These estimates are not based on a single set of assumptions. Based on a review of these estimates, the best estimate of required reserves is recorded for each accident year and the required reserves are summed to create the reserve balance carried on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Reserves are re-estimated periodically by combining historical payment and reserving patterns with current actual results. When actual development of claims reported, paid losses or case reserve changes are different than the historical development pattern used in a prior period reserve estimate, and as actuarial studies validate new trends based on indications of updated development factor calculations, new ultimate loss and LAE predictions are determined. This process incorporates the historic and latest trends, and other underlying changes in the data elements used to calculate reserve estimates. The difference between indicated reserves based on new reserve estimates and the previously recorded estimate of reserves is the amount of reserve re-estimates. The resulting increase or decrease in the reserve re-estimates is recorded and included in “Losses and loss adjustment expenses” in the Consolidated Statements of Income. Claim frequency |
