Any of the above changes or any other consequential changes to SOFR, LIBOR, EURIBOR, or any other “benchmark” as a result of United States, United Kingdom, European Union, or other international, national, or other proposals for reform or other initiatives or investigations, or any further uncertainty in relation to the timing and manner of implementation of such changes could have a material adverse effect on the trading market for, value of and return on any notes based on or linked to a “benchmark.”
The Composition and Characteristics of SOFR Are Not the Same as Those of LIBOR, and SOFR Is Not Expected to be a Comparable Replacement for LIBOR.
In June 2017, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Alternative Reference Rates Committee (the “ARRC”) announced SOFR as its recommended alternative to replace LIBOR in connection with its discontinuation. However, the composition and characteristics of SOFR are not the same as those of LIBOR. While LIBOR is a forward-looking rate that represents interbank funding over different maturities (e.g., three months), SOFR is a rate utilized in the U.S. Treasury repurchase agreement market, representing the overnight cost of borrowing cash collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities. Further, while LIBOR is an unsecured rate, SOFR is a secured rate. SOFR, unlike LIBOR, reflects actual market transactions. Accordingly, SOFR is not the economic equivalent of LIBOR.
As a result, there can be no assurance that SOFR will perform in the same way as LIBOR would have at any time, including, without limitation, as a result of changes in interest and yield rates in the market, monetary policy, bank credit risk, market volatility or global or regional economic, financial, political, regulatory, judicial or other events. For the same reasons, SOFR is not expected to be a comparable replacement for LIBOR.
SOFR Has a Limited History, and the Future Performance of SOFR Cannot Be Predicted Based on Historical Performance.
The publication of SOFR began in April 2018, and, therefore, it has a very limited history. In addition, the future performance of SOFR cannot be predicted based on its limited historical performance. Future levels of SOFR may bear little or no relation to the historical actual or historical indicative data. Prior observed patterns, if any, in the behavior of market variables and their relation to SOFR, such as correlations, may change in the future. Because only limited historical data has been released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, such analysis inherently involves assumptions, estimates and approximations. The future performance of SOFR is impossible to predict and therefore no future performance of SOFR may be inferred from any of the historical actual or historical indicative data. Hypothetical or historical performance data are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, the potential performance of SOFR.
SOFR May Be More Volatile Than Other Benchmark or Market Rates.
Since the initial publication of SOFR, daily changes in the rate have, on occasion, been more volatile than daily changes in other benchmark or market rates, such as LIBOR, during corresponding periods, and SOFR may bear little or no relation to the historical actual or historical indicative data. As a result, the return on and value of SOFR notes may fluctuate more than floating rate securities that are linked to other rates.
Any Failure of SOFR to Gain Market Acceptance Could Adversely Affect SOFR Notes.
According to the ARRC, SOFR was developed for use in certain U.S. dollar derivatives and other financial contracts as an alternative to LIBOR in part because it is considered a good representation of general funding conditions in the overnight U.S. Treasury repurchase agreement market. However, as a rate based on transactions secured by U.S. Treasury securities, it does not measure bank-specific credit risk and, as a result, is less likely to correlate with the unsecured short-term funding costs of banks. This may mean that market participants would not consider SOFR a suitable replacement or successor for all of the purposes for which LIBOR historically has been used (including, without limitation, as a representation of the unsecured short-term funding costs of banks), which may, in turn, lessen market acceptance of SOFR. Any failure of SOFR to gain market acceptance could adversely affect the return on and value of SOFR notes and the price at which investors can sell those notes in the secondary market.
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