The German economy expanded slightly in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the preceding quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. Economic growth in the second quarter of 2009 was supported by household and government final consumption expenditure which rose by 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2009. Growth was also based on capital formation in construction, which increased by 1.4% in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the first quarter of 2009. It must be taken into account, however, that construction activity in the first quarter of 2009 was impaired by the relatively cold winter. Following a sharp fall in the first quarter of 2009 (-18.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008), capital formation in machinery and equipment did not change significantly (-0.5%) in the second quarter of 2009, thus stabilizing at a low level. Economic growth was dampened by a significant reduction of inventories in the second quarter of 2009, which contributed -1.9 percentage points to growth. Between April and June 2009, both exports and imports were lower than in the first quarter of 2009. However, the decrease in price-adjusted imports (-5.1%) was considerably larger than that of exports (-1.2%), thus resulting in an export surplus which contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter of 2009.
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The consumer price index for Germany declined by 0.5% in July 2009 compared to July 2008. Such a decline in the consumer price index has not been recorded since German reunification in 1990, while for the former territory of the Federal Republic, such an inflation rate was last recorded in Spring of 1987.
The negative inflation rate continues to be attributable, in large measure, to significant price fluctuations for liquid fuel and motor fuels (mineral oil products). Mineral oil prices declined in July 2009 compared to June 2009, and current prices were far below the record level recorded in July 2008. In addition, the decline of food prices over the past several months was an important contributor to the low rate of price increase. The trends with respect to prices of energy and food are stronger than the price trends recorded for all other goods and services, although the share of the former in the weighting scheme does not exceed 20%. Excluding the trends with respect to the prices of energy and food, the inflation rate would have been 1.4% in July 2009 compared to July 2008.
Compared to June 2009, prices in July 2009 remained stable.
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Consumer prices in July 2009: -0.5% on July 2008, press release of August 10, 2009
(http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/press/pr/2009/08/PE09__295__611,templateId=renderPrint.psml).
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(percent of unemployed persons in the total labor force according to the
International Labor Organization (ILO) definition) (1)
Reference period | Original percentages | Seasonally adjusted percentages (2) |
|
|
|
June 2008 | 7.6 | 7.3 |
July 2008 | 7.3 | 7.2 |
August 2008 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
September 2008 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
October 2008 | 6.3 | 7.1 |
November 2008 | 6.6 | 7.1 |
December 2008 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
January 2009 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
February 2009 | 8.0 | 7.3 |
March 2009 | 7.7 | 7.5 |
April 2009 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
May 2009 | 7.4 | 7.7 |
June 2009 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
(1) | Starting with the press release of the Federal Statistical Office dated October 30, 2007, the Federal Statistical Office’s telephone survey “Labour market in Germany”, which had been in use since January 2005 and was discontinued in April 2007, was replaced by the EU-wide harmonized labour force survey as the source of information for, among other things, the monthly ILO unemployment data. While the overall unemployment level according to the new method is higher, the methodological change has not resulted in significant differences in terms of trends. |
(2) | As the time series available following the methodological change described in footnote (1) is not long enough to permit for seasonal adjustments, the seasonally adjusted results will for some time be estimated using data of the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) on the seasonally adjusted monthly number of registered unemployed. A time series of sufficient length for direct seasonal adjustment is expected to be available in 2011 at the earliest, because stable monthly data are available only from January 2007 and the time series should span at least four years. |
The number of employed persons decreased by approximately 81,000, or 0.2%, in June 2009 compared to June 2008. Compared to May 2009 the number of employed persons in June 2009 dropped by approximately 42,000, or 0.1%, after elimination of seasonal variations.
The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed persons in June 2009 increased by approximately 220,000, or 6.9%, compared to June 2008. Compared to May 2009, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed persons in June 2009 increased by 30,000, or 0.8%.
Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, The labor market in June 2009, Slight decline in employment figures (http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/Arbeitsmarkt/ILOArbeitsmarktstatistik/Aktuell,templateId=renderPrint.psml);
Statistisches Bundesamt, Notes on the ILO labour market statistics from reference month September 2007
(http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/Arbeitsmarkt/ILOArbeitsmarktstatistik/Hinweise__ILO,templateId=renderPrint.psml);
Statistisches Bundesamt, ILO labour market statistics, Unemployment rates
(http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/TimeSeries/EconomicIndicators/LabourMarket/Content100/arb430a,templateId=renderPrint.psml);
Statistisches Bundesamt, ILO labour market statistics, Unemployment rate, Seasonally and calendar adjusted figures (estimation)
(http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Content/Statistics/TimeSeries/EconomicIndicators/LabourMarket/Content75/arb422a,templateId=renderPrint.psml).
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Current Account and Foreign Trade |
CURRENT ACCOUNT AND FOREIGN TRADE
| (balance in EUR billion) |
Item | January to June 2009 | January to June 2008 |
|
|
|
Foreign trade | 57.8 | 104.7 |
Services | -7.5 | -4.5 |
Factor income (net) | 15.3 | 15.6 |
Current transfers | -16.5 | -17.3 |
Supplementary trade items | -6.1 | -6.0 |
|
|
|
Current account | 43.0 | 92.5 |
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, German exports in June 2009: - -22.3% on June 2008, press release of August 7, 2009
(http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/press/pr/2009/08/PE09__290__51,templateId=renderPrint.psml). Other Recent Developments |
At the beginning of August 2009, the amendment to the German constitution providing for a new “debt brake” rule (Schuldenbremse) came into effect. As previously reported, the debt brake imposes a constitutional limit on net borrowing for the Federal Government and the Länder.
Sources: Bundesregierung, Gesetzliche Neueregelungen, publication of July 30, 2009
(http://www.bundesregierung.de/nn_1272/Content/DE/Artikel/ArtikelNeuregelungen/2009/2009-07-30-gesetzliche-neuregelungen.html); Bundesgesetzblatt Jahrgang 2009 Teil I Nr. 48, Gesetz zur zur Änderung des Grundgesetzes (Artikel 91c, 91d, 104b, 109, 109a, 115, 143d), published on July 31, 2009.
The Federal Ministry of Finance expects that the general government deficit in 2009 will rise to approximately 4% of nominal GDP, which would be well above the prescribed Maastricht treaty deficit ratio of 3% of nominal GDP.
Source:Bundesministerium der Finanzen, Monatsbericht Juli 2009, page 42
(http://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/nn_53848/DE/BMF__Startseite/Aktuelles/Monatsbericht__des__BMF/2009/07/inhalt/mobe__dokument__gesamt,property=publicationFile.pdf).
In July 2009, the law on the further stabilization of the financial market (Gesetz zur Fortentwicklung der Finanzmarktstabilisierung) came into effect. The law provides the legal basis for a new asset relief scheme for banks in Germany aimed at addressing uncertainties regarding the quality of banks’ assets and supplements previously adopted stabilization measures (i.e., government guarantees, recapitalization measures and risk assumption) by providing for three different types of bad bank models. As with the previously adopted stabilization measures, participation by banks in the asset relief scheme will be voluntary.
The first model allows banks to transfer structured securities to separate, bank-specific special purpose vehicles in exchange for bonds guaranteed by the German Financial Market Stabilization Fund (Sonderfonds Finanzmarktstabilisierung) (the “Fund”). The model provides for a method to calculate the “fundamental value” (i.e., a theoretical fair price of the transferred securities). Banks taking advantage of this model will be required to pay the difference between the transfer value and the fundamental value from distributable profits in annual tranches over a period of up to 20 years and will be required to compensate any further losses incurred on the transferred assets thereafter. In addition, banks using the special purpose vehicle model will have to pay an annual fee for the guarantee provided by the Fund and will be subject to certain operating restrictions (e.g., restrictions on expansion plans, as well as caps on payments to shareholders and on bonuses). Applications to take advantage of the special purpose vehicle model must be made no later than January 23, 2010. The European Commission approved the special purpose vehicle model under EU state aid rules at the end of July 2009.
The other two bad bank models may be implemented either under German federal law or the laws of the Länder. These models will allow banks to spin-off the economically sound core bank; other risk positions and non-strategic business operations are to be liquidated in separate, bank-specific liquidation sub-agencies (Abwicklungsanstalten). These liquidation sub-agencies will not be credit institutions under the German Banking Act (Kreditwesengesetz) and will not be subject to IFRS reporting requirements or Basel II rules. However, the shareholders/owners of the banks taking advantage of these bad bank models will generally be obliged to compensate any loss of the sub-agency. The European Commission will examine these bad bank models under EU state aid rules on a case-by-case basis.
Sources: European Commission, State aid: Commission approves German asset relief scheme, press release of July 31, 2009
(http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/09/1216&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en);
SoFFin, Gesetz zur Fortentwicklung der Finanzmarktstabilisierung - Kernpunkte und Einschätzung der FMSA
(http://www.soffin.de/fortentwicklung.php).
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SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank has duly caused this amendment to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized, at Frankfurt am Main, Federal Republic of Germany, on the 31st day of August, 2009.
| | LANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHE RENTENBANK | |
| | | |
| | By /s/ Dr. Horst Reinhardt | |
| | Name: Dr. Horst Reinhardt | |
| | Title: Managing Director, | |
| | Member of the Management Board | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | By /s/ Martin Middendorf | |
| | Name: Martin Middendorf | |
| | Title: Vice President | |
| | | |
| | | |
|
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