-51-
The allowance for credit losses as a percentage of total finance
receivables increased to 6.75% as of September 30, 2020
,
from 2.15%
as of December 31, 2019.
This increase in reserve coverage is primarily driven by an $11.9
million increase from the January 1, 2020
adoption of CECL, and $36.6 million of Provision for credit
losses recognized as a result of qualitative and forecast adjustments
in the
nine-months ended September 30, 2020 as a result of the estimated
impact to the portfolio from the COVID-19 pandemic,
as discussed
Provision for credit
losses
The provision for credit losses recognized after the adoption
of CECL is primarily driven by origination volumes, offset
by the
reversal of the allowance for any contracts sold, plus adjustments for
changes in estimate each subsequent reporting period.
For
2020, given the wide changes in the macroeconomic environment
driven by COVID-19, the changes in estimate is the most
significant driver of provision.
In contrast, the allowance estimate recognized in 2019 under
the probable, incurred model was
based on the current estimate of probable net credit
losses inherent in the portfolio.
For the three months ended September 30, 2020 the $ 7.2
million provision for credit losses recognized was $ 0.5 million less
than the $ 7.7 million provision recognized for the three months ended
September 30, 2019.
Provision for the three months ended
September 30, 2020 includes $2.0 million related to COVID from updates
to both the economic forecast and qualitative
adjustments to incorporate timing adjustments, $4.2 million from originations,
and $1.0 million for other updates, primarily
driven by updating
the model loss curves.
For the nine-months ended September 30, 2020, the $ 51.2
million provision for credit losses recognized was $ 33.4
million
greater than the $ 17.8 million provision recognized for same
period of 2019.
Provision for the nine-months ended September
30, 2020 includes $36.6 million related to COVID from updates to
both the economic forecast and qualitative adjustments to
incorporate timing adjustments, $13.0 million from originations, and $1.
6
million for other updates, primarily driven by updating
the model loss curves.
For the Equipment Finance portfolio, our estimate of elevated
COVID-related losses is primarily driven by updates to a
reasonable and supportable forecast based on the modeled correlation
of changes in the loss experience of the our portfolio to
certain economic statistics, specifically changes in the unemployment
rate and changes in the number of business bankruptcies.
Starting in the first quarter, we are
using a 6-month period for applying the economic statistics due to
the uncertainty in the
current economic environment.
For Equipment Finance, we recognized forecast and qualitative adjustments
for the three and
nine-months ended September 30, 2020 of $2.1 million and
$26.5 million, respectively, related
to COVID based on applying the
economic forecast adjustment, and from incorporating timing
adjustments.
For the CVG and Working
Capital portfolio segments, our estimate of increased losses is based
on qualitative adjustments, taking
into consideration alternative scenarios to determine the Company’s
estimate of the probable impact of the economic shutdown.
For CVG, we recognized qualitative provision for the three and
nine-months ended September 30, 2020 of $3.7
million and $7.0
million, respectively.
For the third quarter, qualitative adjustments
primarily are driven by sub-segmenting a population of
motor
coach receivables that have prolonged industry-specific risks.
For both periods of 2020, the reserve includes adjustments to
incorporate economic risk. For Working
Capital, we recognized qualitative provision based on
our risk assessment of the
expected performance of this segment in the current economic
environment.
For the three ended September 30, 2020 that
includes a credit, or provision reversal, of $3.9 million related
to refining our risk assessment of this portfolio segment due
to
positive performance in the third quarter.
That credit brings the Working
Capital qualitative provision for the nine-months ended
September 30, 2020 to $3.1 million.
The qualitative and economic adjustments to our allowance take into
consideration information and our judgments as of
September 30, 2020,
and are based in part on an expectation for the extent and timing of impacts
from COVID-19 on
unemployment rates and business bankruptcies, and are based
on our current expectations of the performance of our portfolio in
the current environment.
The COVID-19 pandemic, and related business shutdowns, is
still ongoing, and the extent of the effects
of the pandemic on our portfolio depends on future developments,
which are highly uncertain and are difficult to predict.
We
may recognize credit losses in excess of our reserve, or increases to our
credit loss estimate, in the future, and such increases may
be significant, based on future developments.
Net Charge-offs.
Equipment Finance and TFG receivables are generally charged
-off when they are contractually past due for 120
days or more.
Working Capital receivables
are generally charged-off at 60 days past
due.