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Assured Guaranty Corp.
September 30, 2010
Financial Supplement
Table of Contents | Page | ||
---|---|---|---|
Selected Financial Highlights | 1 | ||
Consolidated Statements of Operations | 2 | ||
Consolidated Balance Sheets | 3 | ||
Claims Paying Resources | 4 | ||
New Business Production | 5 | ||
Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written | 6 | ||
Underwriting Gain (Loss) | 7 | ||
Investment Portfolio | 8 | ||
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues | 9 | ||
Present Value of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed | 10 | ||
Financial Guaranty Profile | 11-13 | ||
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile | 14 | ||
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile | 15 | ||
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile | 16-17 | ||
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile | 18 | ||
Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile | 19 | ||
Direct Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile | 20 | ||
Below Investment Grade Exposures | 21-23 | ||
Largest Exposures by Sector | 24-27 | ||
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type | 28 | ||
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties Benefit Development | 29 | ||
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid | 30 | ||
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data | 31 | ||
Glossary | 32-33 | ||
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 34-35 |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009 and its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for periods ended March 31, 2010, June 30, 2010 and September 30, 2010. For the purposes of this financial supplement, all references to the "Company" shall mean AGC.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: | ||||
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade or change in outlook of Assured Guaranty Ltd. or its affiliates and/or of transactions insured by Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s subsidiaries, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, Assured Guaranty's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world's credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses implicating the adequacy of Assured Guaranty's expected loss estimates; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of reinsurance portfolio opportunities available to Assured Guaranty; (7) deterioration in the financial condition of our reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amount owed to us under our reinsurance agreements; (8) the possibility that Assured Guaranty will not realize insurance loss recoveries or damages expected from originators, sellers, sponsors, underwriters or servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities transactions; (9) decreased demand or increased competition; (10) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (11) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws; (12) other governmental actions; (13) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty's business strategy; (14) contract cancellations; (15) Assured Guaranty's dependence on customers; (16) loss of key personnel; (17) adverse technological developments; (18) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (19) natural or man-made catastrophes; (20) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (21) management's response to these factors; and (22) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. | ||||
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions)
| Three Months Ended September 30, | | Nine Months Ended September 30, | | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 3Q-09 | % Change versus YTD 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | |||||||||||||||||
Operating income reconciliation: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Operating income (loss) 1 | $ | 12.5 | $ | (123.8 | ) | NM | $ | 3.8 | $ | (92.6 | ) | NM | |||||||||
Plus after-tax adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Realized gains (losses) on investments | (0.1 | ) | 0.4 | NM | 1.5 | 4.0 | (63)% | ||||||||||||||
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives | (121.4 | ) | 37.0 | NM | 45.3 | (106.5 | ) | NM | |||||||||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (1.4 | ) | (0.8 | ) | 75% | 3.3 | (27.4 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable | 1.4 | 2.4 | (42)% | (1.9 | ) | 2.4 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Effect of consolidating variable interest entities ("VIEs") 2 | 15.7 | - | NM | 17.3 | - | NM | |||||||||||||||
Goodwill impairment | - | (85.4 | ) | (100)% | - | (85.4 | ) | (100)% | |||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | (93.3 | ) | $ | (170.2 | ) | (45)% | $ | 69.3 | $ | (305.5 | ) | NM | ||||||||
Return on equity ("ROE") calculations 3: | |||||||||||||||||||||
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio | (30.2)% | (81.8)% | 7.7% | (45.3)% | |||||||||||||||||
Operating ROE | 3.3% | (42.4)% | 0.3% | (10.8)% | |||||||||||||||||
Other information | |||||||||||||||||||||
Gross par written | $ | 1,221 | $ | 8,032 | (85)% | $ | 5,852 | $ | 40,142 | (85)% |
| As of | | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | % Change versus 12/31/2009 | |||||||||
Reconciliation of shareholder's equity to adjusted book value: | ||||||||||||
Shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp. | $ | 1,269.9 | $ | 1,226.2 | 4% | |||||||
Less after-tax adjustments: | ||||||||||||
Effect of consolidating VIEs 2 | (22.6 | ) | - | NM | ||||||||
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives | (335.4 | ) | (380.7 | ) | (12)% | |||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | 5.9 | 2.6 | 127% | |||||||||
Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect | 81.5 | 27.6 | 195% | |||||||||
Operating shareholder's equity | $ | 1,540.5 | $ | 1,576.7 | (2)% | |||||||
After-tax adjustments | ||||||||||||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs | 34.4 | 29.3 | 17% | |||||||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue | 219.2 | 244.8 | (10)% | |||||||||
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed | 626.0 | 651.3 | (4)% | |||||||||
Adjusted book value | $ | 2,351.3 | $ | 2,443.5 | (4)% | |||||||
Other information | ||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding | $ | 177,585 | $ | 186,606 | (5)% | |||||||
Net par outstanding | 123,464 | 130,468 | (5)% | |||||||||
Claims paying resources 4 | 3,586 | 3,759 | (5)% |
1. The Company revised its definition of operating income in 2010 to exclude foreign exchange revaluation gains and losses on premiums receivable. Prior periods are presented on a basis consistent with the current definition.
2. Effective January 1, 2010, GAAP accounting required the consolidation of VIEs where the Company is determined to be the control party through rights under our financial guaranty insurance contracts. For those VIEs that the Company consolidates, it records all of the activities of the VIE and eliminates the related insurance accounting. Operating income and operating shareholder's equity reverse the financial effect of consolidating these entities and accounts for them as financial guaranty insurance contracts in order to present the Company's insured obligations on a consistent basis.
3. ROE calculations represent annualized returns.
4. See page 4.
Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.
NM = Not meaningful
Page 1
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated Statements of Operations
(dollars in millions)
| Three Months Ended September 30, | | Nine Months Ended September 30, | | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 3Q-09 | % Change versus YTD 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | |||||||||||||||||
Revenues: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums | $ | 27.7 | $ | 13.4 | 107% | $ | 82.3 | $ | 107.8 | (24)% | |||||||||||
Net investment income | 19.8 | 19.3 | 3% | 63.2 | 58.3 | 8% | |||||||||||||||
Net realized investment gains (losses) | (0.1 | ) | 0.6 | NM | 2.3 | 6.2 | (63)% | ||||||||||||||
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credit derivative revenues | 21.2 | 22.4 | (5)% | 62.8 | 67.4 | (7)% | |||||||||||||||
Losses incurred on credit derivatives | (8.9 | ) | (141.9 | ) | (94)% | (73.1 | ) | (169.2 | ) | (57)% | |||||||||||
Net unrealized gain (loss), excluding losses incurred | (186.8 | ) | 56.8 | NM | 69.7 | (163.9 | ) | NM | |||||||||||||
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives | (174.5 | ) | (62.7 | ) | 178% | 59.4 | (265.7 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (2.2 | ) | (1.2 | ) | 83% | 5.1 | (42.2 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Financial guaranty VIEs' revenues | 16.9 | - | NM | 71.4 | - | NM | |||||||||||||||
Other income | 0.8 | 3.4 | (76)% | (4.3 | ) | 4.6 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Total revenues | (111.6 | ) | (27.2 | ) | 310% | 279.4 | (131.0 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Expenses: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 18.0 | 77.8 | (77)% | 56.2 | 145.6 | (61)% | |||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | 4.2 | 0.1 | NM | 9.9 | 2.9 | 241% | |||||||||||||||
Interest expense | 3.8 | - | NM | 11.3 | NM | ||||||||||||||||
Goodwill impairment | - | 85.4 | (100)% | - | 85.4 | (100)% | |||||||||||||||
Financial guaranty VIEs' expenses | (7.4 | ) | - | NM | 44.0 | - | NM | ||||||||||||||
Other operating expenses | 18.8 | 18.1 | 4% | 65.5 | 66.9 | (2)% | |||||||||||||||
Total expenses | 37.4 | 181.4 | (79)% | 186.9 | 300.8 | (38)% | |||||||||||||||
Income (loss) before income taxes | (149.0 | ) | (208.6 | ) | (29)% | 92.5 | (431.8 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Provision (benefit) for income taxes | (55.7 | ) | (38.4 | ) | 45% | 23.2 | (126.3 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | (93.3 | ) | $ | (170.2 | ) | (45)% | $ | 69.3 | $ | (305.5 | ) | NM | ||||||||
Less after-tax adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Realized gains (losses) on investments | (0.1 | ) | 0.4 | NM | 1.5 | 4.0 | (63)% | ||||||||||||||
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives | (121.4 | ) | 37.0 | NM | 45.3 | (106.5 | ) | NM | |||||||||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (1.4 | ) | (0.8 | ) | 75% | 3.3 | (27.4 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable | 1.4 | 2.4 | (42)% | (1.9 | ) | 2.4 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Effect of consolidating VIEs1 | 15.7 | - | NM | 17.3 | - | NM | |||||||||||||||
Goodwill impairment | - | (85.4 | ) | (100)% | - | (85.4 | ) | (100)% | |||||||||||||
Operating income (loss) | $ | 12.5 | $ | (123.8 | ) | NM | $ | 3.8 | $ | (92.6 | ) | NM | |||||||||
Effect of refundings and accelerations, net | |||||||||||||||||||||
Earned premiums from refundings and accelerations, net | $ | 0.6 | $ | 3.2 | (81)% | $ | 4.1 | $ | 47.4 | (91)% | |||||||||||
Operating income effect | $ | 0.3 | $ | 1.2 | (75)% | $ | 2.1 | $ | 31.5 | (93)% |
1. Effective January 1, 2010, GAAP accounting required the consolidation of VIEs where the Company is determined to be the control party through rights under our financial guaranty insurance contracts. For those VIEs that the Company consolidates, it records all of the activities of the VIE and eliminates the related insurance accounting. Operating income reverses the financial effect of consolidating these entities and accounts for them as financial guaranty insurance contracts in order to present the Company's insured obligations on a consistent basis.
Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.
NM = Not meaningful
Page 2
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(in millions)
| As of | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | |||||||
Assets | |||||||||
Investment portfolio: | |||||||||
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value | $ | 2,589.0 | $ | 2,045.2 | |||||
Short-term investments, at fair value | 269.7 | 802.6 | |||||||
Total investment portfolio | 2,858.7 | 2,847.8 | |||||||
Cash | 11.1 | 2.5 | |||||||
Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable | 329.8 | 351.4 | |||||||
Ceded unearned premium reserve | 417.1 | 435.3 | |||||||
Deferred acquisition costs | 52.9 | 45.2 | |||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses | 62.1 | 50.7 | |||||||
Credit derivative assets | 277.1 | 252.0 | |||||||
Committed capital securities, at fair value | 9.1 | 4.0 | |||||||
Deferred tax asset, net | 245.1 | 241.8 | |||||||
Salvage and subrogation recoverable | 218.2 | 169.9 | |||||||
Financial guaranty VIE assets 1 | 404.4 | - | |||||||
Other assets | 99.4 | 99.2 | |||||||
Total assets | $ | 4,985.0 | $ | 4,499.8 | |||||
Liabilities and shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Liabilities | |||||||||
Unearned premium reserve | $ | 1,398.8 | $ | 1,451.6 | |||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve | 210.7 | 191.2 | |||||||
Note payable to affiliate | 300.0 | 300.0 | |||||||
Credit derivative liabilities | 1,078.0 | 1,076.7 | |||||||
Reinsurance balances payable, net | 150.8 | 166.0 | |||||||
Financial guaranty VIE liabilities with recourse 1 | 414.6 | - | |||||||
Financial guaranty VIE liabilities without recourse 1 | 12.1 | - | |||||||
Other liabilities | 150.1 | 88.1 | |||||||
Total liabilities | 3,715.1 | 3,273.6 | |||||||
Shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Common stock | 15.0 | 15.0 | |||||||
Additional paid-in capital | 1,037.1 | 1,037.1 | |||||||
Retained earnings 1 | 143.1 | 153.7 | |||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income | 74.7 | 20.4 | |||||||
Total shareholder's equity | 1,269.9 | 1,226.2 | |||||||
Total liabilities and shareholder's equity | $ | 4,985.0 | $ | 4,499.8 | |||||
1. Effective January 1, 2010, GAAP accounting required the consolidation of VIEs where the Company is determined to be the control party through rights under our financial guaranty insurance contracts.
Page 3
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| As of | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | ||||||
Claims paying resources | ||||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 973 | $ | 1,224 | ||||
Contingency reserve | 666 | 556 | ||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 1,639 | 1,780 | ||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 882 | 887 | ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve 2 | 295 | 280 | ||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves | 2,816 | 2,947 | ||||||
Present value of installment premium 3 | 570 | 612 | ||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 200 | 200 | ||||||
Total claims paying resources | $ | 3,586 | $ | 3,759 | ||||
Net par outstanding 1 | $ | 123,464 | $ | 130,468 | ||||
Net debt service outstanding 1 | 177,585 | 186,606 | ||||||
Ratios: | ||||||||
Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital | 75:1 | 73:1 | ||||||
Capital ratio 4 | 108:1 | 105:1 | ||||||
Financial resources ratio 5 | 50:1 | 50:1 |
1. Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis. Under statutory accounting, such amounts would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., the rights and interests of bondholders and their lien on pledged revenues or other security are terminated in accordance with bond documentation) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., bond documentation does not provide a procedure for termination of such rights, interests and lien other than through payment of all outstanding debt in full; funds are deposited in an escrow account for future payment of the debt; and if the funds deposited prove insufficient to pay the outstanding debt in full, the issuer continues to be legally obligated to make payment on such debt).
2. Reserves as of September 30, 2010 and December 31, 2009 are reduced by approximately $0.3 billion and $0.3 billion, respectively, for benefit related to representation and warranty recoverables.
3. Includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
4. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
5. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.
Page 4
Assured Guaranty Corp.
New Business Production
(in millions)
| Three Month Ended September 30, | Nine Months Ended September 30, | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | ||||||||||||
Consolidated new business production analysis: | ||||||||||||||||
Present value of new business production ("PVP") | ||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | ||||||||||||||||
Primary markets | $ | 9.8 | $ | 138.0 | $ | 30.1 | $ | 445.0 | ||||||||
Secondary markets | 0.7 | 3.9 | 10.1 | 42.2 | ||||||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | ||||||||||||||||
Primary markets | - | - | - | 1.6 | ||||||||||||
Secondary markets | - | - | 0.7 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 2.0 | 1.9 | 11.2 | 16.6 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
Total PVP | 12.5 | 143.8 | 52.1 | 505.6 | ||||||||||||
Less: PVP of credit derivatives | - | - | - | 2.4 | ||||||||||||
PVP of financial guaranty insurance | 12.5 | 143.8 | 52.1 | 503.2 | ||||||||||||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP | 2.3 | (0.2 | ) | 12.0 | 33.3 | |||||||||||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront gross written premiums ("GWP") | 10.2 | 144.0 | 40.1 | 469.9 | ||||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment adjustment1 | 0.2 | (14.3 | ) | 22.4 | 35.8 | |||||||||||
Total financial guaranty GWP | 10.4 | 129.7 | 62.5 | 505.7 | ||||||||||||
Plus: Other segment GWP | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
Total GWP | $ | 10.4 | $ | 129.7 | $ | 62.5 | $ | 505.7 | ||||||||
Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: | ||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | ||||||||||||||||
Primary markets | $ | 981 | $ | 7,286 | $ | 2,925 | $ | 37,978 | ||||||||
Secondary markets | 40 | 146 | 293 | 874 | ||||||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | ||||||||||||||||
Primary markets | - | - | - | 226 | ||||||||||||
Secondary markets | - | - | 34 | 90 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 200 | 600 | 2,600 | 974 | ||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
Total | $ | 1,221 | $ | 8,032 | $ | 5,852 | $ | 40,142 | ||||||||
1. Includes the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments compared to the discount rate used for the new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard, as well as the changes in estimated term for future installments.
Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.
Page 5
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written
(in millions)
Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written by Asset Type
| Three Months Ended September 30, 2010 | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2010 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Par Written | Avg. Rating 1 | Gross Par Written | Avg. Rating 1 | |||||||||||
Sector: | |||||||||||||||
U.S. Public Finance | |||||||||||||||
General obligation | $ | 567 | A | $ | 2,072 | A | |||||||||
Higher education | 217 | A | 301 | A | |||||||||||
Municipal utilities | 199 | A- | 409 | A- | |||||||||||
Tax backed | 33 | A | 263 | A | |||||||||||
Transportation | 5 | A | 162 | A | |||||||||||
Healthcare | - | 11 | A | ||||||||||||
Total U.S. public finance | 1,021 | A | 3,218 | A | |||||||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Infrastructure finance | - | - | 34 | BBB | |||||||||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | - | - | 34 | BBB | |||||||||||
Total public finance | $ | 1,021 | A | $ | 3,252 | A | |||||||||
U.S. Structured Finance | |||||||||||||||
Consumer receivables | $ | 200 | A | $ | 1,600 | AAA | |||||||||
Other Structured finance | - | 1,000 | AAA | ||||||||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 200 | A | 2,600 | AAA | |||||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 200 | A | $ | 2,600 | AAA | |||||||||
Total gross par written | $ | 1,221 | A | $ | 5,852 | AA- | |||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 6
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Underwriting Gain (Loss)
(in millions)
| | | | | | | | Nine Months | ||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q-09 | 2Q-09 | 3Q-09 | 4Q-09 | 1Q-10 | 2Q-10 | 3Q-10 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Income statement: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 13.0 | $ | 15.0 | $ | (0.7 | ) | $ | 14.0 | $ | 10.9 | $ | 19.3 | $ | 15.7 | $ | 27.3 | $ | 45.9 | |||||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.1 | (4.9 | ) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 1.1 | 18.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 28.5 | 26.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | 10.2 | (8.7 | ) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums | 25.1 | 25.1 | 10.2 | 24.5 | 27.4 | 24.4 | 27.4 | 60.4 | 79.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations | 42.6 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 47.4 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 67.7 | 26.7 | 13.4 | 30.9 | 29.5 | 25.8 | 28.0 | 107.8 | 83.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Credit derivative revenues 1 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.5 | 20.7 | 20.9 | 21.2 | 67.4 | 62.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Other income | 0.7 | 0.5 | (0.2 | ) | 0.2 | 0.4 | (0.4 | ) | (1.3 | ) | 1.0 | (1.3 | ) | |||||||||||||||||
Total underwriting revenues | 91.4 | 49.2 | 35.6 | 52.6 | 50.6 | 46.3 | 47.9 | 176.2 | 144.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 21.4 | 46.4 | 77.8 | 47.4 | 34.5 | 3.7 | 18.3 | 145.6 | 56.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Losses incurred on credit derivatives 2 | 1.1 | 26.2 | 141.9 | 61.4 | 64.6 | (0.4 | ) | 8.9 | 169.2 | 73.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total incurred losses | 22.5 | 72.6 | 219.7 | 108.8 | 99.1 | 3.3 | 27.2 | 314.8 | 129.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | (0.3 | ) | 3.1 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Operating expenses | 15.2 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 24.5 | 15.8 | 17.4 | 43.2 | 57.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses | 37.4 | 89.9 | 233.6 | 127.2 | 127.7 | 20.7 | 48.8 | 360.9 | 197.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Underwriting gain (loss) 3 | $ | 54.0 | $ | (40.7 | ) | $ | (198.0 | ) | $ | (74.6 | ) | $ | (77.1 | ) | $ | 25.6 | $ | (0.9 | ) | $ | (184.7 | ) | $ | (52.4 | ) | |||||
1. Includes premiums and ceding commissions.
2. Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.
3. The Company has revised its definition of underwriting gain in 2010 to exclude foreign exchange revaluation gains and losses on premiums receivable. 2009 amounts are presented on a consistent basis.
Page 7
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Investment Portfolio
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
| Amortized Cost | Pre-Tax Book Yield | After-Tax Book Yield | Fair Value | Annualized Investment Income1 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment portfolio, available for sale: | |||||||||||||||||||
Fixed maturity securities: | |||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | $ | 314.6 | 2.36% | 1.53% | $ | 332.0 | $ | 7.4 | |||||||||||
Agency obligations | 152.8 | 2.88% | 1.87% | 162.6 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | 1,012.5 | 4.41% | 4.13% | 1,067.5 | 44.7 | ||||||||||||||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions 2 | 383.5 | 4.80% | 4.55% | 405.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||||||||
Corporate securities | 223.0 | 3.49% | 2.27% | 234.4 | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||
Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"): | |||||||||||||||||||
Residential MBS ("RMBS") | 122.0 | 4.32% | 2.81% | 117.4 | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||
Commercial MBS ("CMBS") | 76.0 | 5.44% | 3.53% | 81.8 | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||
Asset-backed securities 3 | 92.9 | 1.93% | 1.25% | 94.9 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||
Foreign government securities | 86.0 | 3.78% | 2.46% | 92.9 | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | 2,463.3 | 3.94% | 3.30% | 2,589.0 | 97.2 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term investments | 269.7 | 0.18% | 0.12% | 269.7 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||
Total investment portfolio | $ | 2,733.0 | 3.57% | 2.99% | $ | 2,858.7 | $ | 97.7 | |||||||||||
Ratings 4: | Fair Value | % of Total | |||||||||||||||||
Treasury and government obligations | $ | 332.0 | 12.8% | ||||||||||||||||
Agency obligations | 162.6 | 6.3% | |||||||||||||||||
AAA/Aaa | 655.0 | 25.3% | |||||||||||||||||
AA/Aa | 1,051.3 | 40.6% | |||||||||||||||||
A/A | 336.7 | 13.0% | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 5.6 | 0.2% | |||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade ("BIG") 5 | 45.8 | 1.8% | |||||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | $ | 2,589.0 | 100.0% | ||||||||||||||||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
Average ratings of investment portfolio | AA | ||||||||||||||||||
1. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Rating Services ("S&P") or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's") average AA-.
3. Contains no collateralized debt obligations ("CDOs") of asset-backed securities ("ABS").
4. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications.
5. Included in the investment portfolio are securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $150.2 million in par with carrying value of $45.7 million
Page 8
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization 1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues
(in millions)
| | | Financial Guaranty Insurance 2 | | | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization | Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding | Expected PV Net Earned Premiums | Accretion of Discount | Future Net Premiums Earned | Future Credit Derivative Revenues 3 | Total | ||||||||||||||||
2010 (as of September 30) | $ | 177,585 | |||||||||||||||||||||
2010 (October 1 - December 31) | 2,252 | 175,333 | $ | 17.4 | $ | 1.6 | $ | 19.0 | $ | 9.1 | $ | 28.1 | |||||||||||
2011 | 10,569 | 164,764 | 80.6 | 6.0 | 86.6 | 73.3 | 159.9 | ||||||||||||||||
2012 | 12,328 | 152,436 | 71.8 | 5.5 | 77.3 | 63.2 | 140.5 | ||||||||||||||||
2013 | 12,014 | 140,422 | 66.7 | 5.0 | 71.7 | 51.1 | 122.8 | ||||||||||||||||
2014 | 14,170 | 126,252 | 61.2 | 4.5 | 65.7 | 37.3 | 103.0 | ||||||||||||||||
2010-2014 | 51,333 | 126,252 | 297.7 | 22.6 | 320.3 | 234.0 | 554.3 | ||||||||||||||||
2015-2019 | 42,927 | 83,325 | 253.5 | 17.7 | 271.2 | 94.5 | 365.7 | ||||||||||||||||
2020-2024 | 28,976 | 54,349 | 181.1 | 11.0 | 192.1 | 54.8 | 246.9 | ||||||||||||||||
2025-2029 | 20,327 | 34,022 | 121.2 | 6.4 | 127.6 | 40.7 | 168.3 | ||||||||||||||||
After 2029 | 34,022 | - | 128.0 | 3.7 | 131.7 | 65.7 | 197.4 | ||||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 177,585 | $ | 981.5 | $ | 61.4 | $ | 1,042.9 | $ | 489.7 | $ | 1,532.6 | |||||||||||
1. Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2010. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.
2. See page 10 for "Present Value of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed."
3. Excludes contracts with credit impairment.
Page 9
Assured Guaranty Corp
Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed
(in millions)
| Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses to be Expensed: | |||||
2010 (October 1 - December 31) | $ | 0.5 | |||
2011 | 2.0 | ||||
2012 | 1.7 | ||||
2013 | 1.5 | ||||
2014 | 1.3 | ||||
2010-2014 | 7.0 | ||||
2015-2019 | 4.8 | ||||
2020-2024 | 2.4 | ||||
2025-2029 | 1.9 | ||||
After 2029 | 2.5 | ||||
Total expected PV of net loss to be expensed | 18.6 | ||||
Discount | 79.7 | ||||
Total future value | $ | 98.3 | |||
1. The expected present value of net loss to be expensed is discounted by weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0% to 4.51%.
Page 10
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(in millions)
Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| As of September 30, 2010 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | Avg. Rating 1 | |||||
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
General obligation | $ | 25,747 | A | ||||
Tax backed | 11,965 | A | |||||
Municipal utilities | 9,138 | A- | |||||
Transportation | 6,739 | A | |||||
Healthcare | 5,201 | A | |||||
Higher education | 3,411 | A | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 962 | BBB | |||||
Investor-owned utilities | 638 | A- | |||||
Housing | 330 | AA | |||||
Other public finance | 1,699 | A | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 65,830 | A | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
Pooled infrastructure | 2,532 | AA+ | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 1,326 | BBB- | |||||
Regulated utilities | 1,125 | BBB+ | |||||
Other public finance | 117 | AA- | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 5,100 | A+ | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 70,930 | A | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 21,191 | AA+ | ||||
RMBS | 9,979 | BB+ | |||||
CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures | 5,605 | AAA | |||||
Consumer receivables | 2,328 | AAA | |||||
Structured credit | 1,241 | BBB+ | |||||
Commercial receivables | 1,104 | BBB+ | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 255 | A+ | |||||
Other structured finance | 117 | AA | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 41,820 | AA- | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 6,945 | AAA | |||||
RMBS | 2,173 | AAA | |||||
Commercial receivables | 579 | A- | |||||
Structured credit | 447 | BBB | |||||
CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures | 288 | AAA | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 279 | CCC- | |||||
Other structured finance | 3 | A | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 10,714 | AA+ | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 52,534 | AA- | ||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 123,464 | A+ | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 11
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
| As of September 30, 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance - U.S. | Public Finance - Non-U.S. | Structured Finance - U.S. | Structured Finance - Non-U.S. | Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ratings 1: | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior | $ | - | 0.0% | $ | 1,631 | 32.0% | $ | 7,512 | 18.0% | $ | 2,332 | 21.8% | $ | 11,475 | 9.3% | |||||||||||||||||
AAA | 257 | 0.4% | 16 | 0.3% | 16,012 | 38.3% | 5,737 | 53.5% | 22,022 | 17.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
AA | 11,904 | 18.1% | 22 | 0.4% | 3,535 | 8.5% | 446 | 4.2% | 15,907 | 12.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
A | 42,061 | 63.9% | 1,536 | 30.1% | 2,735 | 6.5% | 379 | 3.5% | 46,711 | 37.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
BBB | 10,882 | 16.5% | 1,681 | 33.0% | 4,323 | 10.3% | 1,266 | 11.8% | 18,152 | 14.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
BIG | 726 | 1.1% | 214 | 4.2% | 7,703 | 18.4% | 554 | 5.2% | 9,197 | 7.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 65,830 | 100.0% | $ | 5,100 | 100.0% | $ | 41,820 | 100.0% | $ | 10,714 | 100.0% | $ | 123,464 | 100.0% | |||||||||||||||||
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer and Insurer Financial Strength Rating
Reinsurer | Moody's Rating | S&P Rating | Ceded Par Outstanding | % of Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Affiliated Companies | A1 | AA | $ | 44,605 | 92.5% | |||||||||
Non-Affiliated Companies: | ||||||||||||||
RAM Reinsurance Co. Ltd. | WR | WR | 3,170 | 6.5% | ||||||||||
Radian Asset Assurance Inc. | Ba1 | BB- | 184 | 0.4% | ||||||||||
MBIA Insurance Corporation | B3 | BB+ | 138 | 0.3% | ||||||||||
Ambac Assurance Corporation | Caa2 | R | 109 | 0.2% | ||||||||||
Other | Various | Various | 37 | 0.1% | ||||||||||
Non-Affiliated Companies | 3,638 | 7.5% | ||||||||||||
Total | $ | 48,243 | 100.0% | |||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 12
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2010
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.: | |||||||||
Public Finance: | |||||||||
California | $ | 7,878 | 6.4% | ||||||
Texas | 6,603 | 5.3% | |||||||
New York | 4,982 | 4.0% | |||||||
Pennsylvania | 4,699 | 3.8% | |||||||
Florida | 4,670 | 3.8% | |||||||
Illinois | 3,833 | 3.1% | |||||||
New Jersey | 2,677 | 2.2% | |||||||
Puerto Rico | 2,001 | 1.6% | |||||||
Alabama | 1,876 | 1.5% | |||||||
Michigan | 1,733 | 1.4% | |||||||
Other states | 24,878 | 20.2% | |||||||
Total U.S. Public Finance | 65,830 | 53.3% | |||||||
Structured finance (multiple states) | 41,820 | 33.9% | |||||||
Total U.S. | 107,650 | 87.2% | |||||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||||
United Kingdom | 7,319 | 5.9% | |||||||
Australia | 1,065 | 0.9% | |||||||
Germany | 905 | 0.7% | |||||||
Cayman Islands | 769 | 0.6% | |||||||
Other | 5,756 | 4.7% | |||||||
Total non-U.S. | 15,814 | 12.8% | |||||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 123,464 | 100.0% | ||||||
Page 13
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings as of September 30, 2010
Ratings 1: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement 2 | Avg. Current Credit Enhancement 2 | | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super Senior | $ | 5,399 | 19.5% | 42.6% | 38.3% | |||||||||||||
AAA | 16,047 | 57.9% | 34.0% | 31.6% | ||||||||||||||
AA | 1,604 | 5.8% | 42.7% | 35.4% | ||||||||||||||
A | 561 | 2.0% | 47.6% | 40.1% | ||||||||||||||
BBB | 1,980 | 7.1% | 45.6% | 34.6% | ||||||||||||||
BIG | 2,138 | 7.7% | 45.1% | 25.8% | ||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 27,729 | 100.0% | 38.1% | 33.1% | |||||||||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2010
Asset class: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement | Avg. Current Credit Enhancement | Avg. Rating 1 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBOs/CLOs 3 | $ | 18,888 | 68.1% | 35.3% | 32.0% | AAA | ||||||||||||
Market value CDOs 4 of corporate | 3,037 | 11.0% | 42.8% | 39.3% | AAA | |||||||||||||
Trust preferred - banks and insurance | 2,691 | 9.7% | 46.8% | 30.9% | BBB- | |||||||||||||
Trust preferred - US Mortgage and REITs 5 | 1,834 | 6.6% | 50.1% | 38.4% | BB | |||||||||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate | 702 | 2.5% | 30.0% | 30.1% | Super Senior | |||||||||||||
Trust preferred - European Mortgage and REITs | 577 | 2.1% | 37.3% | 32.5% | BBB- | |||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 27,729 | 100.0% | 38.1% | 33.1% | AA+ | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
3. CBOs (collateralized bond obligations) /CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) are largely non-investment grade/high yield collateral.
4. CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.
5. REITs are real estate investment trusts.
Page 14
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating 1 and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2010
Ratings 1: | Prime First Lien | Closed End Seconds ("CES") | HELOC 2 | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
AAA | 3 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 784 | 816 | |||||||||||||||||
AA | 27 | 30 | 5 | 143 | 29 | 1,199 | 1,433 | |||||||||||||||||
A | 12 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 95 | 876 | 1,060 | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 20 | - | 9 | 841 | 77 | 511 | 1,458 | |||||||||||||||||
BIG | 512 | 195 | 519 | 2,547 | 805 | 634 | 5,213 | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 574 | $ | 226 | $ | 548 | $ | 3,620 | $ | 1,006 | $ | 4,005 | $ | 9,979 | ||||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2010
Year insured: | Prime First Lien | CES | HELOC | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 43 | $ | 1 | $ | 32 | $ | 40 | $ | 42 | $ | 248 | $ | 405 | ||||||||||
2005 | 116 | - | 210 | 263 | 24 | 32 | 645 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | 33 | 2,989 | 3,022 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 | 415 | 225 | 306 | 1,958 | 822 | 737 | 4,462 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | 1,359 | 86 | - | 1,445 | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 574 | $ | 226 | $ | 548 | $ | 3,620 | $ | 1,006 | $ | 4,005 | $ | 9,979 | ||||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating 1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2010
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 126 | $ | 65 | $ | 122 | $ | 60 | $ | 32 | $ | 405 | ||||||||||
2005 | - | 32 | - | 75 | 55 | 483 | 645 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | 650 | 1,198 | 745 | 327 | 101 | 3,022 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 8 | 36 | 32 | 475 | 3,912 | 4,462 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | 134 | 86 | 541 | 685 | 1,445 | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | - | $ | 816 | $ | 1,433 | $ | 1,060 | $ | 1,458 | $ | 5,213 | $ | 9,979 | ||||||||||
% of total | 0.0% | 8.2% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 52.2% | 100.0% |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. Home equity line of credit ("HELOC") securitizations.
AGC has not insured any U.S. RMBS transactions since 2008.
Page 15
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2010 1
U.S. Prime First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor 2 | Subordination 3 | Cumulative Losses 4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies 5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 116 | 54.8% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 7.2% | 6 | |||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 415 | 67.0% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 14.8% | 1 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 531 | 64.3% | 9.2% | 1.8% | 13.1% | 7 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. CES
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 225 | 33.6% | 3.3% | 54.7% | 10.4% | 5 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 225 | 33.6% | 3.3% | 54.7% | 10.4% | 5 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 210 | 21.7% | 0.0% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 2 | |||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 306 | 40.6% | 0.0% | 34.9% | 8.9% | 2 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 515 | 32.9% | 0.0% | 28.1% | 11.3% | 4 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 263 | 46.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 15.5% | 13 | |||||||||||||
2006 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 1,958 | 61.5% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 33.0% | 8 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | 1,359 | 57.5% | 27.0% | 8.6% | 30.3% | 5 | ||||||||||||||
$ | 3,581 | 58.9% | 16.7% | 7.5% | 30.7% | 26 | ||||||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2010. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2010 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that have been delinquent for more than 60 days and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned ("REO"), divided by net par outstanding.
Page 16
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2010 1
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor 2 | Subordination 3 | Cumulative Losses 4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies 5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 24 | 24.4% | 24.5% | 3.7% | 22.8% | 1 | |||||||||||||
2006 | 33 | 39.8% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 23.8% | 1 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 822 | 64.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 32.9% | 5 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | 86 | 64.3% | 49.3% | 7.3% | 34.5% | 1 | ||||||||||||||
$ | 965 | 62.8% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 32.5% | 8 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
Year insured: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | $ | 32 | 20.9% | 82.1% | 10.5% | 58.9% | 1 | |||||||||||||
2006 | 2,989 | 25.6% | 61.7% | 13.2% | 40.7% | 2 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 737 | 37.8% | 28.9% | 19.1% | 47.4% | 4 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 3,757 | 27.9% | 55.4% | 14.3% | 42.2% | 7 | ||||||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2010. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2010 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 17
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. CMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating 1, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2010 2
U.S. CMBS
Rating: | Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor 3 | Subordination 4 | Cumulative Losses 5 | 60+ Day Delinquencies 6 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 3,352 | 89.6% | 33.8% | 0.5% | 7.7% | 185 | |||||||||||||
AAA | 194 | 85.7% | 28.0% | 0.3% | 10.2% | 7 | ||||||||||||||
AA | 712 | 87.8% | 18.8% | 0.6% | 7.3% | 39 | ||||||||||||||
A | 194 | 64.4% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 8.1% | 1 | ||||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
BIG | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 4,452 | 88.1% | 30.2% | 0.5% | 7.8% | 232 | |||||||||||||
CDOs of U.S. Commercial Real Estate and CMBS 7
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement 8 | Avg. Current Credit Enhancement 8 | | | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CDOs of Commercial Real Estate | $ | 597 | 53.4% | 49.4% | 48.3% | |||||||||||||||
CDO of CMBS 9 | 522 | 46.6% | 29.7% | 45.3% | ||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 1,119 | 100.0% | 40.2% | 46.9% | |||||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2010. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2010 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
3. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
4. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
5. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
6. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
7. Represents U.S. other CMBS not included in the table above.
8. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
9. Relates to vintages 2003 and prior.
Page 18
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating 1 as of September 30, 2010
Rating: | Credit Cards | Student Loans | Auto | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 863 | - | - | $ | 863 | |||||||||
AAA | - | 1,029 | - | 1,029 | |||||||||||
AA | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
A | - | - | 271 | 271 | |||||||||||
BBB | - | - | 54 | 54 | |||||||||||
BIG | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 863 | $ | 1,029 | $ | 325 | $ | 2,217 | |||||||
Average rating 1 | Super Senior | AAA | A | AAA | |||||||||||
Avg. initial credit enhancement 2 | 53.7% | 7.1% | 19.9% | 27.1% | |||||||||||
Avg. current credit enhancement 2 | 56.7% | 8.3% | 27.3% | 29.9% |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
Page 19
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Direct Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Direct Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Rating
| September 30, 2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratings 1: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
Super senior | $ | 10,613 | 23.7% | ||||||
AAA | 18,388 | 41.0% | |||||||
AA | 3,288 | 7.3% | |||||||
A | 2,935 | 6.5% | |||||||
BBB | 3,759 | 8.4% | |||||||
BIG | 5,854 | 13.1% | |||||||
Total direct credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 44,837 | 100.0% | ||||||
Distribution of Direct Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Sector and Average Rating
| September 30, 2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | Average Rating 1 | |||||||
Public Finance | |||||||||
U.S. public finance | $ | - | - | ||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 3,475 | AA- | |||||||
Total public finance | $ | 3,475 | AA- | ||||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 18,435 | AA+ | ||||||
RMBS | 7,642 | BBB- | |||||||
CMBS | 5,394 | AAA | |||||||
Commercial receivables | 588 | BBB+ | |||||||
Consumer receivables | 462 | AAA | |||||||
Structured credit | 191 | BB | |||||||
Insurance securitizations | 75 | BBB | |||||||
Other structured finance | 95 | AAA | |||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 32,882 | AA- | |||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 6,305 | AAA | |||||||
RMBS | 1,812 | AAA | |||||||
CMBS | 254 | AAA | |||||||
Structured credit | 79 | BBB | |||||||
Insurance securitizations | 30 | CCC | |||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 8,480 | AAA | |||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 41,362 | AA | ||||||
Total direct credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 44,837 | AA | ||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 20
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 3)
As of September 30, 2010
(in millions)
BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type: | Net Par Outstanding1 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||
Municipal utilities | $ | 190 | ||||
Transportation | 162 | |||||
Healthcare | 101 | |||||
Tax backed | 101 | |||||
General obligation | 92 | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 26 | |||||
Higher education | 12 | |||||
Housing | 2 | |||||
Other public finance | 40 | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 726 | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||
Infrastructure finance | 214 | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 214 | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 940 | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||
RMBS | $ | 5,213 | ||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 2,145 | |||||
Structured credit | 244 | |||||
Commercial receivables | 68 | |||||
Consumer receivables | 13 | |||||
Other structured finance | 20 | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 7,703 | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||
Insurance securitizations | 279 | |||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 275 | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 554 | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 8,257 | ||||
Total BIG net par outstanding | $ | 9,197 | ||||
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 21
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 3)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category 1
| Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | |||||||
Category 1 | |||||||||
U.S. public finance | $ | 460 | $ | 280 | |||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 172 | 65 | |||||||
U.S. structured finance | 1,913 | 1,543 | |||||||
Non-U.S. structured finance | 232 | - | |||||||
Total Category 1 | 2,777 | 1,888 | |||||||
Category 2 | |||||||||
U.S. public finance | 66 | 63 | |||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 5 | 4 | |||||||
U.S. structured finance | 4,443 | 4,179 | |||||||
Non-U.S. structured finance | 43 | - | |||||||
Total Category 2 | 4,557 | 4,246 | |||||||
Category 3 | |||||||||
U.S. public finance | 200 | 271 | |||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 37 | 36 | |||||||
U.S. structured finance | 1,347 | 1,507 | |||||||
Non-U.S. structured finance | 279 | 279 | |||||||
Total Category 3 | 1,863 | 2,093 | |||||||
Total BIG net par outstanding | $ | 9,197 | $ | 8,227 | |||||
1. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade ("BIG") credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories: BIG Category 1: Below investment grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make material losses possible, but for which no losses have been incurred. Non-investment grade transactions on which liquidity claims have been paid are in this category. BIG Category 2: Below investment grade transactions for which expected losses have been established but for which no unreimbursed claims have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below investment grade transactions for which expected losses have been established and on which unreimbursed claims have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains.
Page 22
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 3)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating 1 | Current Credit Enhancement | 60+ Day Delinquencies 2 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||||||||||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | $ | 190 | D | |||||||||||||
San Joaquin Hills California Transportation | 162 | BB | ||||||||||||||
Detroit (City of) Michigan | 87 | BB+ | ||||||||||||||
Orlando Tourist Development Tax - Florida | 57 | BB+ | ||||||||||||||
St. Barnabas Health System - New Jersey | 55 | BB | ||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 551 | ||||||||||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||||||||||||
Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited | 111 | BB | ||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 111 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||||||||||||
U.S. RMBS: | ||||||||||||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | $ | 508 | CCC | 2.7% | 32.0% | |||||||||||
Mortgage IT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 415 | B | 10.4% | 14.8% | ||||||||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 | 358 | B | 7.1% | 21.9% | ||||||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 357 | CCC | 25.8% | 31.9% | ||||||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 357 | B | 22.7% | 28.9% | ||||||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 328 | BB | 22.5% | 28.4% | ||||||||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 | 326 | CCC | 6.5% | 46.4% | ||||||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 320 | CCC | 16.2% | 36.3% | ||||||||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D | 291 | CCC | 0.0% | 9.0% | ||||||||||||
AAA Trust 2007-2 | 279 | CCC | 35.9% | 48.1% | ||||||||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J | 172 | CCC | 0.0% | 16.0% | ||||||||||||
Alternative Loan Trust 2007-OA10 | 139 | CCC | 8.6% | 55.1% | ||||||||||||
Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N | 107 | CCC | 9.3% | 40.6% | ||||||||||||
Taylor Bean & Whitaker 2007-2 | 92 | CCC | 0.0% | 35.1% | ||||||||||||
ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL3 | 88 | BB | 0.0% | 10.7% | ||||||||||||
MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 | 68 | B | 16.5% | 39.1% | ||||||||||||
CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 | 52 | CCC | 0.4% | 34.4% | ||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | $ | 4,257 | ||||||||||||||
Other: | ||||||||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding IV, LTD. | $ | 219 | CCC | 33.4% | N/A | |||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding III, LTD. | 216 | CCC | 28.4% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, LTD. | 215 | B- | 6.4% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Trapeza CDO XI | 197 | BB | 28.5% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Weinstein Film Securitization | 191 | BB | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding II, LTD. | 179 | CCC | 33.8% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Attentus CDO I LIMITED | 173 | BB | 33.8% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XVII, LTD. | 172 | B- | 10.6% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Attentus CDO II LIMITED | 142 | BB | 31.2% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Trapeza CDO X, LTD. | 133 | BB | 32.1% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding VI, LTD. | 114 | CCC | 35.1% | N/A | ||||||||||||
US Capital Funding IV, LTD. | 113 | B- | 14.7% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Preferred Term Securities XVI, LTD. | 102 | BB+ | 19.8% | N/A | ||||||||||||
Capco - Excess SIPC Excess of Loss Reinsurance | 54 | BB | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||
Total Other | $ | 2,220 | ||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 6,477 | ||||||||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||||||||||||
Orkney RE II, PLC | $ | 149 | CCC | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||
Ballantyne Re PLC | 130 | CC | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||
Augusta Funding Limited 05 Perpetual Note Issue | 82 | BB | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||
Augusta Funding Limited 07 Perpetual Note Issue | 77 | BB | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||
Total | $ | 438 | ||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 7,577 | ||||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Although the Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
2. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 23
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S Public Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating 1 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California (State of) | $ | 1,160 | A- | ||||
Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) | 908 | BBB- | |||||
North Texas Tollway Authority | 713 | A | |||||
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport | 684 | A+ | |||||
Miami-Dade County Florida School District | 650 | A- | |||||
Pennsylvania Turnipke Commission | 590 | A+ | |||||
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania | 578 | BBB+ | |||||
New Jersey (State of) | 575 | AA- | |||||
Georgia Board of Regents Revenue Stream | 566 | A | |||||
Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority | 500 | BBB | |||||
New York (State of) | 494 | AA | |||||
Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority | 490 | A+ | |||||
New York (City of) New York | 468 | AA- | |||||
Dade County, Florida General Obligation | 400 | AA- | |||||
Chicago-O'Hare International Airport | 386 | A | |||||
San Francisco Airports Commission | 380 | A | |||||
Denver (City and County of) Colorado Airport Revenue Bonds | 356 | A+ | |||||
Michigan (State of) | 353 | A+ | |||||
Dormitory Authority of the State of New York School District | 316 | A | |||||
The Indianapolis Local Public Improvement Bond Bank, Indiana | 305 | AA- | |||||
Chicago Illinois Public Schools | 290 | A+ | |||||
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority | 288 | BBB- | |||||
New York MTA Transportation Authority | 282 | A | |||||
Chicago (City of) Illinois | 279 | AA- | |||||
Piedmont Municipal Power Authority - South Carolina | 276 | BBB | |||||
American Municipal Power-Ohio, Inc. - Prairie State | 269 | A | |||||
Metro Wash Airports Authority Dulles Toll Road | 266 | BBB+ | |||||
Kentucky (Commonwealth of) | 264 | AA- | |||||
New Jersey Higher Education Student Assistance 2008-A | 263 | A | |||||
Massachusetts Turnpike Authority Revenue Stream | 260 | A | |||||
Long Island Power Authority | 257 | A- | |||||
Chicago Transit Authority Capital Grant Receipts | 252 | A | |||||
Louisville Arena Authority Inc. | 247 | BBB- | |||||
Dallas (City of) Texas Civic Center Convention Complex | 243 | A | |||||
North Carolina Eastern Municipal Power Agency | 239 | BBB | |||||
Louisiana (State of) | 237 | AA- | |||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) | 231 | AA | |||||
Oakland (City of) California General Obligation | 225 | A | |||||
Florida (State of) Department of Environmental Protection | 222 | A+ | |||||
Virtua Health - New Jersey | 221 | A | |||||
Orange County Schools, Florida | 216 | A+ | |||||
Nassau County, New York | 209 | A | |||||
District of Columbia Water and Sewer Authority Public Utility Bonds | 209 | A+ | |||||
North Carolina Turnpike Authority - Triangle Expressway | 204 | BBB- | |||||
Orlando Tourist Development Tax - Florida | 203 | A | |||||
Yankee Stadium LLC (New York City Industrial Development Authority) | 203 | BBB- | |||||
Maine (State of) | 200 | A | |||||
Iowa Health System | 195 | A+ | |||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | 190 | D | |||||
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey | 190 | AA- | |||||
Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures | $ | 18,002 | |||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Page 24
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating 1 | Current Credit Enhancement | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | $ | 508 | CCC | 2.7% | ||||||||
ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund | 506 | AAA | 45.0% | |||||||||
280 Funding I | 495 | AAA | 39.5% | |||||||||
Citibank OMNI Trust 2007-A7 | 488 | Super Senior | 49.4% | |||||||||
MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | 415 | B | 10.4% | |||||||||
Private Structured Credit Transaction | 400 | BBB+ | N/A | |||||||||
Private Student Loan Transaction | 375 | AAA | 11.2% | |||||||||
Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 | 358 | B | 7.1% | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 357 | CCC | 25.8% | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 357 | B | 22.7% | |||||||||
Applebees Enterprises LLC | 352 | BBB- | N/A | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 347 | BBB- | 22.6% | |||||||||
KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 | 341 | AAA | 50.8% | |||||||||
Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited | 338 | AAA | 40.7% | |||||||||
Private Student Loan Transaction | 333 | AAA | 3.4% | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 328 | BB | 22.5% | |||||||||
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 | 326 | CCC | 6.5% | |||||||||
Liberty CLO LTD Series Class A-1C | 321 | Super Senior | 35.1% | |||||||||
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction | 320 | CCC | 16.2% | |||||||||
ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund | 308 | AAA | 45.0% | |||||||||
Private Consumer Receivable Transaction | 300 | Super Senior | 62.2% | |||||||||
Symphony Credit Opportunities Fund | 295 | AAA | 26.9% | |||||||||
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D | 291 | CCC | 0.0% | |||||||||
AAA Trust 2007-2 | 279 | CCC | 35.9% | |||||||||
Wasatch CLO, LTD. | 273 | AAA | 22.1% | |||||||||
CDX.NA.IG.8 5-YR 30-100% | 273 | Super Senior | 30.3% | |||||||||
Geer Mountain Financing, LTD. | 270 | AAA | 27.6% | |||||||||
Cent CDO XI Limited | 270 | AAA | 21.7% | |||||||||
Private Student Loan Transaction | 267 | AAA | 10.1% | |||||||||
Southfork CLO LTD. Series 2005-A1 | 266 | AAA | 28.8% | |||||||||
Alesco Preferred Funding XIV | 266 | BBB- | 27.8% | |||||||||
HSAM Long/Short 2007-2 | 255 | AAA | 30.0% | |||||||||
Babcock & Brown Air Funding I LTD. Series 2007-1 | 247 | A- | N/A | |||||||||
Jupiter Securitization Company | 245 | AAA | N/A | |||||||||
Fortress Credit Funding I LP | 241 | Super Senior | 38.6% | |||||||||
Fortress Credit Funding III LP | 236 | Super Senior | 52.7% | |||||||||
Sandelman Finance 2006-2, LTD. | 235 | AAA | 34.3% | |||||||||
Kodiak CDO II | 233 | AA | 49.3% | |||||||||
Newstar Credit Opportunities Funding II LTD | 231 | AAA | 35.5% | |||||||||
Blue Mountain CLO LTD. 2005-1 | 227 | Super Senior | 34.4% | |||||||||
CDX.NA.IG.4 7-YR 30-100% | 225 | Super Senior | 29.7% | |||||||||
Kingsland IV | 225 | AAA | 21.0% | |||||||||
Baker Street CLO II | 224 | AAA | 21.7% | |||||||||
RAIT Preferred Funding II, LTD. | 223 | AAA | 48.4% | |||||||||
Denali Credit Opportunity Fund | 221 | AAA | 26.5% | |||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding IV, LTD. | 219 | CCC | 33.4% | |||||||||
Kingsland V | 219 | AAA | 24.5% | |||||||||
Franklin CLO V Limited | 219 | AAA | 25.4% | |||||||||
Foothill CLO I, LTD. | 217 | AAA | 27.0% | |||||||||
Taberna Preferred Funding III, LTD. | 215 | CCC | 28.4% | |||||||||
Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures | $ | 14,980 | ||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 25
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating 1 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PB Domicile 2006-1 | $ | 847 | AAA | ||||||
Fortress Credit Investments I | 769 | AAA | |||||||
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II | 748 | Super Senior | |||||||
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III | 659 | Super Senior | |||||||
Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V. | 447 | Super Senior | |||||||
Windmill CLO I PLC | 420 | Super Senior | |||||||
Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC | 351 | AAA | |||||||
Harvest CLO III | 347 | AAA | |||||||
Broadcast Australia Finance | 326 | BBB | |||||||
RMF Euro CDO V PLC | 324 | AAA | |||||||
Taberna Europe CDO I PLC | 306 | BBB- | |||||||
International Infrastructure Pool | 300 | A- | |||||||
International Infrastructure Pool | 300 | A- | |||||||
International Infrastructure Pool | 300 | A- | |||||||
Wood Street CLO V B.V. | 298 | Super Senior | |||||||
Halcyon Structured Management Europe CLO 2007-I | 290 | AAA | |||||||
Halcyon Structured Management Europe CLO 2007-I | 280 | Super Senior | |||||||
Airspeed Limited Series 2007-1 | 277 | BBB+ | |||||||
Taberna Europe CDO II PLC | 270 | BBB- | |||||||
Alpstar CLO 2 PLC | 268 | Super Senior | |||||||
Highlander Euro CDO | 266 | Super Senior | |||||||
Nemus Funding No.1 PLC | 253 | AAA | |||||||
Dalradian European CLO IV B.V. | 239 | AAA | |||||||
North Westerly Clo III B.V. | 232 | AAA | |||||||
Stichting Profile Securitisation I | 224 | Super Senior | |||||||
Total top 25 largest non-U.S. exposures | $ | 9,341 | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 26
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures
Servicer: | Net Par Outstanding | | | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bank of America, N.A. 1 | $ | 2,701 | ||||||||||
Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. | 1,463 | |||||||||||
GMAC Mortgage Corporation | 1,404 | |||||||||||
American Home Mortgage Servicing, Inc. | 1,127 | |||||||||||
JPMorgan Chase Bank | 784 | |||||||||||
Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC. | 325 | |||||||||||
Wilshire Credit Corporation | 311 | |||||||||||
Carrington Mortgage Services | 305 | |||||||||||
OneWest Bank Group LLC. | 243 | |||||||||||
Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc. | 226 | |||||||||||
Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicers exposures | $ | 8,889 | ||||||||||
10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating 2 | State | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virtua Health | $ | 221 | A | NJ | ||||||||
Iowa Health System | 195 | A+ | IA | |||||||||
CHRISTUS Health | 167 | A+ | TX | |||||||||
Children's Hospital - Alabama | 162 | A+ | AL | |||||||||
Integris Health, Inc. | 162 | AA- | OK | |||||||||
Fairview Health Services | 160 | A | MN | |||||||||
Spartanburg Regional Medical Center | 141 | A | SC | |||||||||
Essentia Health | 139 | A- | MN | |||||||||
Meridian Health System | 135 | A- | �� | NJ | ||||||||
Methodist Healthcare | 135 | A | TN | |||||||||
Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures | $ | 1,617 | ||||||||||
1. Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP.
2. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. Although the Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Page 27
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense ("LAE") Reserves by Segment/Type
(in millions)
| As of September 30, 2010 | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Guaranty Direct | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | Total Financial Guaranty | Other | Total | ||||||||||||
Financial Guaranty segments insurance reserves by segment and type: | |||||||||||||||||
Gross loss and LAE reserves on financial guaranty contracts: | |||||||||||||||||
Case | $ | 168.6 | $ | 41.0 | $ | 209.6 | $ | 0.7 | $ | 210.3 | |||||||
Incurred but not reported ("IBNR") and portfolio | - | - | - | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||
Total gross loss and LAE reserves | $ | 168.6 | $ | 41.0 | $ | 209.6 | $ | 1.1 | $ | 210.7 | |||||||
Ceded loss and LAE reserves on financial guaranty contracts: | |||||||||||||||||
Case | $ | 61.0 | $ | - | $ | 61.0 | $ | 0.7 | $ | 61.7 | |||||||
IBNR and portfolio | - | - | - | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||
Total ceded loss and LAE reserves | $ | 61.0 | $ | - | $ | 61.0 | $ | 1.1 | $ | 62.1 | |||||||
Loss and LAE reserves on financial guaranty contracts net of ceded reinsurance: | |||||||||||||||||
Case | $ | 107.6 | $ | 41.0 | $ | 148.6 | $ | - | $ | 148.6 | |||||||
IBNR and portfolio | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||
Total net loss and LAE reserves | $ | 107.6 | $ | 41.0 | $ | 148.6 | $ | - | $ | 148.6 | |||||||
Salvage and subrogation recoverable on financial guaranty contracts: | |||||||||||||||||
Gross | $ | 206.2 | $ | 12.0 | $ | 218.2 | $ | - | $ | 218.2 | |||||||
Ceded 1 | 63.2 | - | 63.2 | - | 63.2 | ||||||||||||
Net salvage and subrogation recoverable | $ | 143.0 | $ | 12.0 | $ | 155.0 | $ | - | $ | 155.0 | |||||||
Credit impairment on credit derivative contracts 2: | |||||||||||||||||
Case gross | $ | 398.5 | $ | - | $ | 398.5 | $ | - | $ | 398.5 | |||||||
Case ceded | 87.5 | - | 87.5 | - | 87.5 | ||||||||||||
Case net credit derivative reserves | $ | 311.0 | $ | - | $ | 311.0 | $ | - | $ | 311.0 | |||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Net loss and LAE reserves on financial guaranty contracts net of ceded reinsurance | $ | 107.6 | $ | 41.0 | $ | 148.6 | |||||||||||
Credit impairment on credit derivative contracts | 311.0 | - | 311.0 | ||||||||||||||
Net Loss and LAE reserves | $ | 418.6 | $ | 41.0 | $ | 459.6 | |||||||||||
1. Recorded in "reinsurance balances payable, net" on the consolidated balance sheets.
2. Credit derivative assets and liabilities recorded on the balance sheet incorporate credit impairment on credit derivatives.
3. Gross of salvage and subrogation assets.
Page 28
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties ("R&W") Benefit Development
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Insurance | # of Insurance Policies as of September 30, 2010 with R&W Benefit Recorded | Outstanding Principal and Interest Policies with R&W Benefit Recorded as of September 30, 2010 | Future Net R&W Benefit at December 31, 2009 | R&W Development and Accretion of Discount during Year | R&W Recovered During 2010 | Future Net R&W Benefit at September 30, 2010 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime first lien | 1 | $ | 29.2 | $ | - | $ | 0.5 | $ | - | $ | 0.5 | |||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 6 | 370.6 | 8.8 | 1.3 | - | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 1 | 140.0 | 16.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 16.8 | ||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
CES | 2 | 148.3 | 64.2 | (1.1 | ) | - | 63.1 | |||||||||||||
HELOC | 3 | 623.9 | 193.4 | 4.1 | 23.3 | 174.2 | ||||||||||||||
Total | 13 | $ | 1,312.0 | $ | 282.7 | $ | 7.4 | $ | 25.4 | $ | 264.7 | |||||||||
Credit Derivatives | 5 | $ | 2,828.3 | $ | 24.4 | $ | 38.2 | $ | - | $ | 62.6 | |||||||||
Page 29
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid
As of September 30, 2010
(in millions)
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives | Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions 1 | 3Q-10 Incurred Losses | 3Q-10 Paid Losses | Net Loss and LAE Reserve 2 | Net Salvage and Subrogation Assets | Expected Loss to be Expensed | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
First Lien: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | 512.3 | $ | 0.3 | $ | - | $ | 0.4 | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 2,547.3 | 5.9 | - | 122.6 | - | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 804.8 | 7.4 | 0.1 | 123.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien | 633.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 39.8 | - | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||
Total First Lien | 4,498.3 | 13.8 | 0.5 | 285.9 | 0.3 | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||
Second Lien: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 195.3 | 3.2 | 15.1 | 3.4 | 17.8 | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||
HELOC | 519.4 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 29.2 | 137.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
Total Second Lien | 714.7 | 4.2 | 26.4 | 32.6 | 155.3 | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 5,213.0 | 18.0 | 26.9 | 318.5 | 155.6 | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 3,044.1 | 9.2 | (8.1 | ) | 111.0 | 0.7 | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||
Public finance | 940.2 | - | 1.1 | 30.1 | 10.3 | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance | $ | 9,197.3 | $ | 27.2 | $ | 19.9 | $ | 459.6 | $ | 166.6 | $ | 18.6 | ||||||||||
Effect of consolidating VIEs | - - | (0.3 | ) | (7.7 | ) | - - | (11.6 | ) | - - | |||||||||||||
Total excluding consolidated VIE amounts | $ | 9,197.3 | $ | 26.9 | $ | 12.2 | $ | 459.6 | $ | 155.0 | $ | 18.6 | ||||||||||
1. Includes credit impairment on credit derivative transactions.
Page 30
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | ||||||||||||||
Statutory Data | |||||||||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | (63.9 | ) | $ | (243.1 | ) | $ | 27.7 | $ | 71.6 | $ | 64.3 | |||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 973 | $ | 1,224 | $ | 378 | $ | 400 | $ | 286 | |||||||||
Contingency reserve | 666 | 556 | 712 | 582 | 631 | ||||||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 1,639 | 1,780 | 1,090 | 982 | 917 | ||||||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 882 | 887 | 570 | 302 | 239 | ||||||||||||||
Loss and LAE reserves | 295 | 280 | 15 | 12 | 15 | ||||||||||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves | 2,816 | 2,947 | 1,675 | 1,296 | 1,171 | ||||||||||||||
Present value of installment premium | 570 | 612 | 566 | 554 | 356 | ||||||||||||||
Standby line of credit / stop loss | 200 | 200 | 200 | 280 | 455 | ||||||||||||||
Total claims-paying resources | $ | 3,586 | $ | 3,759 | $ | 2,441 | $ | 2,130 | $ | 1,982 | |||||||||
Statutory Financial Ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Loss and LAE ratio | 113.1% | 243.9% | 90.3% | (13.5)% | 4.5% | ||||||||||||||
Expense ratio | 67.4% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 49.9% | 64.8% | ||||||||||||||
Combined ratio | 180.5% | 259.3% | 101.8% | 36.4% | 69.3% | ||||||||||||||
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis): | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | $ | 177,585 | $ | 186,606 | $ | 164,283 | $ | 128,351 | $ | 85,522 | |||||||||
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) | 247,845 | 259,867 | 225,152 | 172,046 | 112,115 | ||||||||||||||
Net par outstanding (end of period) | 123,464 | 130,468 | 111,025 | 94,127 | 68,370 | ||||||||||||||
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | 171,707 | 180,765 | 152,801 | 127,743 | 91,858 | ||||||||||||||
Ceded par to all Assured Guaranty companies | 44,605 | 46,411 | 37,372 | 29,087 | 22,569 | ||||||||||||||
Ratios: | |||||||||||||||||||
Par insured to statutory capital | 75:1 | 73:1 | 102:1 | 75:1 | 75:1 | ||||||||||||||
Capital ratio 1 | 108:1 | 105:1 | 151:1 | 93:1 | 93:1 | ||||||||||||||
Financial resources ratio 2 | 50:1 | 50:1 | 67:1 | 43:1 | 43:1 | ||||||||||||||
Gross debt service written: | |||||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 5,088 | $ | 78,012 | $ | 56,865 | $ | 8,142 | $ | 3,440 | |||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 49 | 522 | 771 | $ | 5,202 | 7,402 | |||||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 1,890 | 2,480 | 13,228 | 35,396 | 26,848 | ||||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | - | 5,265 | 10,061 | 5,843 | ||||||||||||||
Total gross debt service written | $ | 7,027 | $ | 81,014 | $ | 76,128 | $ | 58,801 | $ | 43,533 | |||||||||
1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Page 31
Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 10-K report for the year ended December 31, 2009.
General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.
Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.
Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.
Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.
Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.
Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution's revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.
Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.
Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.
Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.
Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the UK.
Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of CDS obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.
Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in "tranches," with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company's financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed- and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate ("ARM") and option adjustable-rate ("Option ARM") mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including "prime", "subprime" and "Alt-A". A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with
Page 32
higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.
Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.
Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS") and other real estate related exposures are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multi-family, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties.
Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.
Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.
Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.
Page 33
Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP").
Assured Guaranty's management and board of directors utilize non-GAAP measures in evaluating the Company's financial performance and as a basis for determining senior management incentive compensation. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, investors, analysts and financial news reporters have access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty's presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty's financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty's financial results.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why they are useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented above. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures.
Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company's financial guaranty insurance business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company's financial results as compared to the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company's investments, including other than temporary impairments, and credit and interest rate related gains and losses from sales of securities. Impairments and losses from sales of credit-impaired securities, the timing of which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of other sales that would result in gains or losses, such as interest rate related gains or losses, is largely subject to the Company's discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company's tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company's business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions.
- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules.
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
- 4)
- Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premium receivables. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period's foreign exchange revaluation gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
- 5)
- Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain financial guaranty VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs and is not liable for such debt obligations.
- 6)
- Elimination of goodwill impairment.
Operating Shareholder's Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excluding fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders' equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s common shares. Many of the Company's fixed income investors also use operating shareholders' equity to evaluate the Company's capital adequacy. Operating shareholders' equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders' equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders' equity is defined as shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Corp., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs and is not liable for such debt obligations.
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- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
- 4)
- Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investments, that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange revaluation). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore will not recognize an economic loss.
Operating return on equity ("Operating ROE"): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders' equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company's return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis.
Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders' equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders' equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued that will be expensed in future accounting periods.
- 2)
- Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below.
- 3)
- Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of net expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.
Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company's credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes in excess of expected losses, and is discounted at 6% (which represents the Company's tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.
PVP or present value of new business production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives ("Credit Derivative Revenues") do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of insurance and credit derivative contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6% (the Company's tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.
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Contacts: Equity Investors: Sabra Purtill Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 408-6044 spurtill@assuredguaranty.com Ross Aron Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Assured Guaranty Corp. 31 West 52nd Street New York, NY 10019 (212) 974-0100 www.assuredguaranty.com | Fixed Income Investors: Robert Tucker Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 339-0861 rtucker@assuredguaranty.com Michael Walker Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 261-5575 mwalker@assuredguaranty.com Media: Betsy Castenir Managing Director, Corporate Communications (212) 339-3424 bcastenir@assuredguaranty.com Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Corp. September 30, 2010 Financial Supplement
Assured Guaranty Corp. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated Statements of Operations (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated Balance Sheets (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. New Business Production (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Underwriting Gain (Loss) (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Investment Portfolio As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Estimated Net Exposure Amortization1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 2) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Direct Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 3) As of September 30, 2010 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 3) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 3) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense ("LAE") Reserves by Segment/Type (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties ("R&W") Benefit Development (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance Segment Losses Incurred and Paid As of September 30, 2010 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions)
Glossary