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Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
September 30, 2010
Financial Supplement
Table of Contents | Page | ||
---|---|---|---|
Selected Financial Highlights | 1 | ||
Consolidated Statements of Operations | 2 | ||
Consolidated Balance Sheets | 3 | ||
Claims Paying Resources | 4 | ||
New Business Production | 5 | ||
Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written | 6 | ||
Underwriting Gain (Loss) | 7 | ||
Investment Portfolio | 8 | ||
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium Reserve and Credit Derivative Revenues | 9 | ||
Expected Amortization of U.S. and Non-U.S. Structured Finance Net Par Outstanding | 10 | ||
Present Value of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed | 11 | ||
Financial Guaranty Profile | 12-14 | ||
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile | 15 | ||
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile | 16-18 | ||
U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile | 19 | ||
Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile | 20 | ||
Below Investment Grade Exposures | 21-25 | ||
Largest Exposures by Sector | 26-29 | ||
Loss and LAE Reserves | 30 | ||
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties Benefit Development | 31 | ||
Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid | 32 | ||
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data | 33 | ||
Glossary | 34-35 | ||
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 36-37 |
This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty"), with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Reports on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009 and its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the periods ended March 31, 2010, June 30, 2010 and September 30, 2010. Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. ("AGM") was purchased by Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc., a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., on July 1, 2009. This financial supplement presents financial information since its acquisition, except for statutory data, which is based on full year statutory accounting principles. Purchase accounting adjustments were pushed down to AGM, which affects comparability to periods prior to the acquisition. AGM is a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. ("AGMH"), which terminated its registration with the SEC in July 2009 and no longer files reports with the SEC. For the purposes of this financial supplement, all references to the "Company" shall mean AGM.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: | ||||
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade or change in outlook of Assured Guaranty Ltd. or its subsidiaries and/or of transactions insured by Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s subsidiaries, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, Assured Guaranty's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world's credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses implicating the adequacy of Assured Guaranty's expected loss estimates; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of reinsurance portfolio opportunities available to Assured Guaranty; (7) deterioration in the financial condition of our reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amount owed to us under our reinsurance agreements; (8) the possibility that Assured Guaranty will not realize insurance loss recoveries or damages expected from originators, sellers, sponsors, underwriters or servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities transactions; (9) decreased demand or increased competition; (10) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (11) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws; (12) other governmental actions; (13) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty's business strategy; (14) contract cancellations; (15) Assured Guaranty's dependence on customers; (16) loss of key personnel; (17) adverse technological developments; (18) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (19) natural or man-made catastrophes; (20) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (21) management's response to these factors; and (22) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. | ||||
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions)
| Three Months Ended September 30, | | | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 3Q-09 | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2010 | |||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2009 | |||||||||||||
Operating income reconciliation: | |||||||||||||||
Operating income 1 | $ | 200.2 | $ | 227.2 | (12)% | $ | 531.5 | ||||||||
Plus after-tax adjustments: | |||||||||||||||
Realized gains (losses) on investments | (2.0 | ) | 0.3 | NM | (6.7 | ) | |||||||||
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives | (23.7 | ) | (50.0 | ) | (53)% | (28.1 | ) | ||||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (2.2 | ) | (33.7 | ) | (93)% | 0.4 | |||||||||
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable | 16.1 | 3.5 | 360% | (5.3 | ) | ||||||||||
Effect of consolidating variable interest entities ("VIEs") 2 | 115.4 | - | NM | 115.6 | |||||||||||
Gain on bargain purchase | - | 232.6 | (100)% | - | |||||||||||
Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | $ | 303.8 | $ | 379.9 | (20)% | $ | 607.4 | ||||||||
Return on equity ("ROE") calculations 3: | |||||||||||||||
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio | 53.4% | 104.3% | 36.6% | ||||||||||||
Operating ROE | 31.8% | 50.3% | 29.8% | ||||||||||||
Other information | |||||||||||||||
Gross par written | $ | 6,204 | $ | 1,065 | $ | 17,023 |
| As of: | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | |||||||
Reconciliation of shareholder's equity to adjusted book value: | |||||||||
Shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | $ | 2,550.8 | $ | 2,074.5 | |||||
Less after-tax adjustments: | |||||||||
Effect of consolidating VIEs 2 | (51.0 | ) | - | ||||||
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives | (150.1 | ) | (143.5 | ) | |||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | 4.0 | 3.6 | |||||||
Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect | 127.3 | 75.1 | |||||||
Operating shareholder's equity | $ | 2,620.6 | $ | 2,139.3 | |||||
After-tax adjustments: | |||||||||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs | (47.8 | ) | (17.5 | ) | |||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue | 163.3 | 191.9 | |||||||
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed | 2,020.1 | 2,510.6 | |||||||
Adjusted book value | $ | 4,851.8 | $ | 4,859.3 | |||||
Other information | |||||||||
Net debt service outstanding | $ | 536,869 | $ | 583,796 | |||||
Net par outstanding | 361,767 | 393,990 | |||||||
Claims paying resources 4 | 6,700 | 6,927 |
1. The Company revised its definition of operating income in 2010 to exclude foreign exchange revaluation gains and losses on premiums receivable. Prior periods are presented on a basis consistent with the current definition.
2. Effective January 1, 2010, GAAP accounting required the consolidation of VIEs where the Company is determined to be the control party through rights under our financial guaranty insurance contracts. For those VIEs that the Company consolidates, it records all of the activities of the VIE and eliminates the related insurance accounting. Operating income reverses the financial effect of consolidating these entities and accounts for them as financial guaranty insurance contracts in order to present the Company's insured obligations on a consistent basis.
3. ROE calculations represent annualized returns.
4. See page 4.
Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.
Page 1
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated Statements of Operations
(in millions)
| Three Months Ended September 30, | | | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change versus 3Q-09 | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2010 | |||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2009 | |||||||||||||
Revenues: | |||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums | $ | 217.4 | $ | 280.5 | (22)% | $ | 690.4 | ||||||||
Net investment income | 49.1 | 44.9 | 9% | 145.8 | |||||||||||
Net realized investment gains (losses) | (3.1 | ) | 0.5 | NM | (10.3 | ) | |||||||||
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: | |||||||||||||||
Credit derivative revenues | 23.9 | 28.8 | (17)% | 77.1 | |||||||||||
Losses incurred on credit derivatives | (4.1 | ) | 27.3 | NM | (21.3 | ) | |||||||||
Net unrealized gain (loss), excluding losses incurred | (36.6 | ) | (76.9 | ) | (52)% | (51.7 | ) | ||||||||
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives | (16.8 | ) | (20.8 | ) | (19)% | 4.1 | |||||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (3.3 | ) | (51.8 | ) | (94)% | 0.7 | |||||||||
Financial guaranty VIEs' revenues | 59.6 | 4.9 | NM | (9.8 | ) | ||||||||||
Other income | 25.5 | 34.3 | (26)% | 21.5 | |||||||||||
Total revenues | 328.4 | 292.5 | 12% | 842.4 | |||||||||||
Expenses: | |||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 77.9 | 0.9 | NM | 172.6 | |||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | (1.6 | ) | - | NM | (5.9 | ) | |||||||||
Interest expense | 1.7 | 2.3 | (26)% | 5.2 | |||||||||||
Gain on bargain purchase | - | (232.6 | ) | (100)% | - | ||||||||||
Financial guaranty VIEs' expenses | (119.3 | ) | 10.2 | NM | (175.5 | ) | |||||||||
Other operating expenses | 21.7 | 75.9 | (71)% | 61.9 | |||||||||||
Total expenses | (19.6 | ) | (143.3 | ) | (86)% | 58.3 | |||||||||
Income (loss) before income taxes | 348.0 | 435.8 | (20)% | 784.1 | |||||||||||
Provision (benefit) for income taxes | 44.2 | 61.2 | (28)% | 176.7 | |||||||||||
Net income (loss) | 303.8 | 374.6 | (19)% | 607.4 | |||||||||||
Less: Noncontrolling interest of variable interest entities | - | (5.3 | ) | (100)% | - | ||||||||||
Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | $ | 303.8 | $ | 379.9 | (20)% | $ | 607.4 | ||||||||
Less after-tax adjustments: | |||||||||||||||
Realized gains (losses) on investments | (2.0 | ) | 0.3 | NM | (6.7 | ) | |||||||||
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives | (23.7 | ) | (50.0 | ) | (53)% | (28.1 | ) | ||||||||
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities | (2.2 | ) | (33.7 | ) | (93)% | 0.4 | |||||||||
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable | 16.1 | 3.5 | 360% | (5.3 | ) | ||||||||||
Effect of consolidating VIEs 1 | 115.4 | - | NM | 115.6 | |||||||||||
Gain on bargain purchase | - | 232.6 | (100)% | - | |||||||||||
Operating income | $ | 200.2 | $ | 227.2 | (12)% | $ | 531.5 | ||||||||
Effect of refundings and accelerations, net | |||||||||||||||
Earned premiums from refundings and accelerations, net | $ | 15.4 | $ | 11.5 | $ | 36.6 | |||||||||
Operating income effect | 10.0 | 7.5 | 23.8 |
1. Effective January 1, 2010, GAAP accounting required the consolidation of VIEs where the Company is determined to be the control party through rights under our financial guaranty insurance contracts. For those VIEs that the Company consolidates, it records all of the activities of the VIE and eliminates the related insurance accounting. Operating income reverses the financial effect of consolidating these entities and accounts for them as financial guaranty insurance contracts in order to present the Company's insured obligations on a consistent basis.
Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.
Page 2
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(in millions)
| As of | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | |||||||
Assets | |||||||||
Investment portfolio: | |||||||||
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value | $ | 4,871.9 | $ | 5,183.6 | |||||
Short-term investments, at fair value | 473.3 | 542.0 | |||||||
Total investment portfolio | 5,345.2 | 5,725.6 | |||||||
Assets acquired in refinancing transactions | 133.2 | 152.4 | |||||||
Note receivable from affiliate | 300.0 | 300.0 | |||||||
Cash | 40.6 | 23.6 | |||||||
Premiums receivable | 734.9 | 787.4 | |||||||
Ceded unearned premium reserve | 1,514.2 | 1,537.1 | |||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses | 19.4 | 13.7 | |||||||
Credit derivative assets | 199.6 | 227.0 | |||||||
Committed capital securities, at fair value | 6.2 | 5.6 | |||||||
Deferred tax asset, net | 694.6 | 972.4 | |||||||
Salvage and subrogation recoverable | 602.9 | 248.1 | |||||||
Financial guaranty VIE assets 1 | 1,892.3 | 762.3 | |||||||
Other assets | 178.4 | 135.5 | |||||||
Total assets | $ | 11,661.5 | $ | 10,890.7 | |||||
Liabilities and shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Liabilities | |||||||||
Unearned premium reserve | $ | 5,546.7 | $ | 6,468.3 | |||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve | 176.3 | 55.3 | |||||||
Notes payable | 132.1 | 149.1 | |||||||
Credit derivative liabilities | 655.8 | 625.8 | |||||||
Reinsurance balances payable, net | 324.9 | 259.0 | |||||||
Financial guaranty VIE liabilities with recourse 1 | 1,811.0 | 762.7 | |||||||
Financial guaranty VIE liabilities without recourse 1 | 224.9 | - | |||||||
Other liabilities | 239.0 | 496.4 | |||||||
Total liabilities | 9,110.7 | 8,816.6 | |||||||
Shareholder's equity | |||||||||
Preferred stock | - | - | |||||||
Common stock | 15.0 | 15.0 | |||||||
Additional paid-in capital | 1,216.8 | 1,241.8 | |||||||
Retained earnings 1 | 1,184.2 | 743.4 | |||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income | 134.8 | 74.3 | |||||||
Total shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. | 2,550.8 | 2,074.5 | |||||||
Noncontrolling interest of financial guaranty VIEs 1 | - | (0.4 | ) | ||||||
Total shareholder's equity | 2,550.8 | 2,074.1 | |||||||
Total liabilities and shareholder's equity | $ | 11,661.5 | $ | 10,890.7 | |||||
1. Effective January 1, 2010, GAAP accounting required the consolidation of VIEs where the Company is determined to be the control party through rights under our financial guaranty insurance contracts.
Page 3
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| As of: | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2010 | December 31, 2009 | ||||||
Claims paying resources | ||||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 1,008 | $ | 909 | ||||
Contingency reserve | 1,505 | 1,323 | ||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 2,513 | 2,232 | ||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 2,305 | 2,392 | ||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves 2 | 670 | 1,022 | ||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves | 5,488 | 5,646 | ||||||
Present value of installment premiums 3 | 714 | 783 | ||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 498 | 498 | ||||||
Total claims paying resources | $ | 6,700 | $ | 6,927 | ||||
Net par outstanding 1 | $ | 351,494 | $ | 381,148 | ||||
Net debt service outstanding 1 | $ | 525,385 | $ | 568,594 | ||||
Ratios: | ||||||||
Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital | 140:1 | 171:1 | ||||||
Capital ratio 4 | 209:1 | 255:1 | ||||||
Financial resources ratio 5 | 78:1 | 82:1 |
1. Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis. Under statutory accounting, such amounts would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., the rights and interests of bondholders and their lien on pledged revenues or other security are terminated in accordance with bond documentation) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., bond documentation does not provide a procedure for termination of such rights, interests and lien other than through payment of all outstanding debt in full; funds are deposited in an escrow account for future payment of the debt; and if the funds deposited prove insufficient to pay the outstanding debt in full, the issuer continues to be legally obligated to make payment on such debt).
2. Reserves as of September 30, 2010 and December 31, 2009 are reduced by approximately $0.9 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively, for benefit related to representation and warranty recoverables.
3. Includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
4. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
5. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.
Page 4
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
New Business Production
(in millions)
| Three Months Ended September 30, | | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nine Months Ended September 30, 2010 | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2009 | |||||||||||
Consolidated new business production analysis: | |||||||||||||
Present value of new business production ("PVP") | |||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | |||||||||||||
Primary markets | $ | 64.9 | $ | 12.6 | $ | 177.7 | |||||||
Secondary markets | 9.1 | 0.4 | 22.3 | ||||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | |||||||||||||
Primary markets | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Secondary markets | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. 1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.6 | ||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. 1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.8 | ||||||||||
Total PVP | 76.4 | 14.3 | 205.4 | ||||||||||
Less: PVP of credit derivatives | - | - | - | ||||||||||
PVP of financial guaranty insurance | 76.4 | 14.3 | 205.4 | ||||||||||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | ||||||||||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront gross written premiums ("GWP") | 73.7 | 9.9 | 200.8 | ||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment adjustment 2 | 4.0 | (9.2 | ) | 20.1 | |||||||||
Total GWP | $ | 77.7 | $ | 0.7 | $ | 220.9 | |||||||
Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: | |||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | |||||||||||||
Primary markets | $ | 5,802 | $ | 1,052 | $ | 16,212 | |||||||
Secondary markets | 402 | 13 | 811 | ||||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | |||||||||||||
Primary markets | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Secondary markets | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Total | $ | 6,204 | $ | 1,065 | $ | 17,023 | |||||||
1. These policies represent existing policies that have additional premium and have no par outstanding.
2. Includes the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments compared to the discount rate used for new financial guaranty insurance accounting standard as well as the changes in estimated term for future installments.
Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.
Page 5
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written
(in millions)
Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written by Asset Type
| Three Months Ended September 30, 2010 | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2010 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Par Written | Avg. Rating 1 | Gross Par Written | Avg. Rating 1 | |||||||||||
Sector: | |||||||||||||||
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||||
General obligation | $ | 3,003 | A | $ | 7,615 | A | |||||||||
Tax backed | 1,075 | A+ | 3,097 | A+ | |||||||||||
Municipal utilities | 786 | A | 2,840 | A | |||||||||||
Transportation | 730 | A | 1,317 | A | |||||||||||
Healthcare | 215 | A- | 764 | A- | |||||||||||
Higher education | 389 | A | 639 | A | |||||||||||
Investor-owned utilities | - | 30 | A- | ||||||||||||
Other public finance | 6 | A- | 721 | A | |||||||||||
Total U.S. public finance | 6,204 | A | 17,023 | A | |||||||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Total public finance | $ | 6,204 | A | $ | 17,023 | A | |||||||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | $ | - | - | $ | - | - | |||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Total structured finance | $ | - | - | $ | - | - | |||||||||
Total gross par written | $ | 6,204 | A | $ | 17,023 | A | |||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 6
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Underwriting Gain (Loss)
(in millions)
| 3Q-09 | 4Q-09 | 1Q-10 | 2Q-10 | 3Q-10 | Nine Months 2010 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income statement: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums | |||||||||||||||||||||
Public finance - U.S. | $ | 60.7 | $ | 55.3 | $ | 43.2 | $ | 45.6 | $ | 47.3 | $ | 136.1 | |||||||||
Public finance - non-U.S. | 13.3 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 35.0 | |||||||||||||||
Structured finance - U.S. | 189.5 | 180.6 | 185.8 | 161.5 | 147.7 | 495.0 | |||||||||||||||
Structured finance - non-U.S. | 5.5 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 21.1 | |||||||||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums | 269.0 | 258.4 | 245.2 | 227.5 | 214.5 | 687.2 | |||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations | 11.5 | 36.5 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 15.4 | 36.6 | |||||||||||||||
Total net earned premiums | 280.5 | 294.9 | 256.0 | 237.9 | 229.9 | 723.8 | |||||||||||||||
Credit derivative revenues 1 | 28.8 | 27.8 | 28.1 | 25.1 | 23.9 | 77.1 | |||||||||||||||
Other income | 28.9 | (0.7 | ) | 17.2 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 21.1 | ||||||||||||||
Total underwriting revenues | 338.2 | 322.0 | 301.3 | 266.3 | 254.4 | 822.0 | |||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | 0.9 | 50.9 | 69.0 | 60.0 | 89.1 | 218.1 | |||||||||||||||
Losses incurred on credit derivatives 2 | (27.3 | ) | (19.7 | ) | (2.8 | ) | 20.0 | 4.1 | 21.3 | ||||||||||||
Total incurred losses | (26.4 | ) | 31.2 | 66.2 | 80.0 | 93.2 | 239.4 | ||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs | - | (0.5 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (3.0 | ) | (1.6 | ) | (5.9 | ) | ||||||||||
Operating expenses | 41.7 | 25.5 | 18.8 | 19.7 | 20.8 | 59.3 | |||||||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses | 15.3 | 56.2 | 83.7 | 96.7 | 112.4 | 292.8 | |||||||||||||||
Underwriting gain (loss) 3 | $ | 322.9 | $ | 265.8 | $ | 217.6 | $ | 169.6 | $ | 142.0 | $ | 529.2 | |||||||||
1. Includes premiums and ceding commissions.
2. Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.
3. The Company has revised its definition of underwriting gain in 2010 to exclude foreign exchange revaluation gains and losses on premiums receivable. 2009 amounts are presented on a consistent basis.
Page 7
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Investment Portfolio
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
| Amortized Cost | Pre-Tax Book Yield | After-Tax Book Yield | Fair Value | Annualized Investment Income 1 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: | |||||||||||||||||||
Fixed maturity securities: | |||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | $ | 35.1 | 3.44% | 2.24% | $ | 38.3 | $ | 1.2 | |||||||||||
Agency obligations | 115.1 | 2.06% | 1.34% | 119.1 | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | 1,697.7 | 3.79% | 3.57% | 1,800.4 | 64.3 | ||||||||||||||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions 2 | 1,623.6 | 4.81% | 4.54% | 1,736.1 | 78.1 | ||||||||||||||
Corporate securities | 172.5 | 2.91% | 1.89% | 178.0 | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||
Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"): | |||||||||||||||||||
Residential MBS ("RMBS") | 410.9 | 4.78% | 3.11% | 386.6 | 19.6 | ||||||||||||||
Commercial MBS ("CMBS") | 15.3 | 4.27% | 2.78% | 15.8 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||
Asset-backed securities | 325.8 | 2.60% | 1.69% | 329.3 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Foreign government securities | 268.2 | 2.83% | 1.84% | 268.3 | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities | 4,664.2 | 4.02% | 3.50% | 4,871.9 | 187.4 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term investments | 473.0 | 0.17% | 0.11% | 473.3 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||
Total investment portfolio | $ | 5,137.2 | 3.66% | 3.19% | $ | 5,345.2 | $ | 188.2 | |||||||||||
Ratings 3: | Fair Value | % | |||||||||||||||||
Treasury and U.S. government obligations | $ | 38.3 | 0.8% | ||||||||||||||||
Agency obligations | 119.1 | 2.4% | |||||||||||||||||
AAA/Aaa | 1,456.5 | 29.9% | |||||||||||||||||
AA/Aa | 2,102.6 | 43.2% | |||||||||||||||||
A/A | 757.3 | 15.5% | |||||||||||||||||
BBB | 98.9 | 2.0% | |||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade ("BIG") 4 | 264.5 | 5.4% | |||||||||||||||||
Not rated | 34.7 | 0.8% | |||||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | $ | 4,871.9 | 100.0% | ||||||||||||||||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
Average ratings of investment portfolio | AA- | ||||||||||||||||||
1. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Rating Services ("S&P") or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's") average A+. Includes $182.7 million insured by AGM.
3. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications.
4. Included in the investment portfolio are securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $542.5 million in par with carrying value of $264.5 million.
Page 8
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization 1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues
(in millions)
| | | Financial Guaranty Insurance 2 | | | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization | Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding | Expected PV Net Earned Premiums | Accretion of Discount | Future Net Premiums Earned | Future Credit Derivative Revenues 3 | Total | ||||||||||||||||
2010 (as of September 30) | $ | 536,869 | |||||||||||||||||||||
2010 (October 1 - December 31) | 13,253 | 523,616 | $ | 182.3 | $ | 3.7 | $ | 186.0 | $ | 19.6 | $ | 205.6 | |||||||||||
2011 | 42,936 | 480,680 | 547.2 | 14.1 | 561.3 | 75.0 | 636.3 | ||||||||||||||||
2012 | 44,687 | 435,993 | 411.5 | 13.2 | 424.7 | 54.7 | 479.4 | ||||||||||||||||
2013 | 36,818 | 399,175 | 344.6 | 12.3 | 356.9 | 37.5 | 394.4 | ||||||||||||||||
2014 | 38,112 | 361,063 | 303.2 | 11.5 | 314.7 | 25.0 | 339.7 | ||||||||||||||||
2010-2014 | 175,806 | 361,063 | 1,788.8 | 54.8 | 1,843.6 | 211.8 | 2,055.4 | ||||||||||||||||
2015-2019 | 127,902 | 233,161 | 1,060.0 | 46.6 | 1,106.6 | 35.5 | 1,142.1 | ||||||||||||||||
2020-2024 | 91,764 | 141,397 | 603.4 | 31.7 | 635.1 | 3.4 | 638.5 | ||||||||||||||||
2025-2029 | 64,327 | 77,070 | 352.2 | 20.4 | 372.6 | 3.0 | 375.6 | ||||||||||||||||
After 2029 | 77,070 | - | 403.1 | 20.8 | 423.9 | 7.7 | 431.6 | ||||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 536,869 | $ | 4,207.5 | $ | 174.3 | $ | 4,381.8 | $ | 261.4 | $ | 4,643.2 | |||||||||||
1. Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2010. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.
2. See page 11 for "Present Value of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed."
3. Excludes contracts with credit impairment.
Page 9
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Expected Amortization of U.S. and Non-U.S. Structured Finance Net Par Outstanding
(in millions)
| Estimated Net Par Amortization | | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate | U.S. RMBS | Financial Products 1 | Other Structured Finance | Total | Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||||
Structured Finance Net Par Amortization: | ||||||||||||||||||||
2010 (as of September 30) | $ | 83,373 | ||||||||||||||||||
2010 (October 1 - December 31) | $ | 4,394 | $ | 846 | $ | 239 | $ | 479 | $ | 5,958 | 77,415 | |||||||||
2011 | 8,904 | 2,654 | 700 | 1,922 | 14,180 | 63,235 | ||||||||||||||
2012 | 11,666 | 1,711 | 1,247 | 1,406 | 16,030 | 47,205 | ||||||||||||||
2013 | 7,911 | 1,096 | 969 | 413 | 10,389 | 36,816 | ||||||||||||||
2014 | 11,008 | 916 | 743 | 218 | 12,885 | 23,931 | ||||||||||||||
2010-2014 | 43,883 | 7,223 | 3,898 | 4,438 | 59,442 | 23,931 | ||||||||||||||
2015-2019 | 12,366 | 2,966 | 910 | 1,038 | 17,280 | 6,651 | ||||||||||||||
2020-2024 | 195 | 1,289 | 624 | 243 | 2,351 | 4,300 | ||||||||||||||
2025-2029 | 33 | 465 | 460 | 173 | 1,131 | 3,169 | ||||||||||||||
After 2029 | 81 | 868 | 1,820 | 400 | 3,169 | - | ||||||||||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 56,558 | $ | 12,811 | $ | 7,712 | $ | 6,292 | $ | 83,373 | ||||||||||
1. See Glossary for description of financial products.
Page 10
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed
(in millions)
| Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses to be Expensed: | |||||
2010 (October 1 - December 31) | $ | 76.5 | |||
2011 | 180.9 | ||||
2012 | 104.9 | ||||
2013 | 78.6 | ||||
2014 | 67.0 | ||||
2010-2014 | 507.9 | ||||
2015-2019 | 232.3 | ||||
2020-2024 | 116.1 | ||||
2025-2029 | 67.3 | ||||
After 2029 | 66.1 | ||||
Total expected PV of net loss to be expensed | 989.7 | ||||
Discount | 390.7 | ||||
Total future value | $ | 1,380.4 | |||
1. The expected present value of net loss to be expensed is discounted by weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0% to 4.51%.
Page 11
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(in millions)
Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| As of September 30, 2010 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | Avg. Rating 1 | |||||
U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
General obligation | $ | 112,142 | A+ | ||||
Tax backed | 50,141 | A+ | |||||
Municipal utilities | 46,136 | A+ | |||||
Transportation | 19,985 | A | |||||
Healthcare | 10,063 | A | |||||
Higher education | 6,962 | A+ | |||||
Housing | 5,476 | AA- | |||||
Infrastructure finance | 1,144 | BBB | |||||
Investor-owned utilities | 46 | A- | |||||
Other public finance | 1,742 | A | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 253,837 | A+ | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | |||||||
Infrastructure finance | 11,129 | BBB | |||||
Regulated utilities | 6,987 | BBB+ | |||||
Other public finance | 6,441 | AA- | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 24,557 | A- | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 278,394 | A+ | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 43,101 | AAA | ||||
RMBS | 12,811 | BB- | |||||
Financial products 2 | 7,712 | AA- | |||||
Consumer receivables | 2,357 | A+ | |||||
Insurance securitization | 369 | AA | |||||
Commercial receivables | 90 | BBB- | |||||
Structured credit | 80 | BBB- | |||||
Other structured finance | 623 | A | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 67,143 | AA | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 13,457 | AAA | |||||
RMBS | 1,626 | AA | |||||
Structured credit | 515 | BBB+ | |||||
Commercial receivables | 233 | A | |||||
Insurance securitizations | 38 | A+ | |||||
Other structured finance | 361 | AAA | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 16,230 | AAA | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 83,373 | AA | ||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 361,767 | A+ | ||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
2. See Glossary for description of financial products.
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 12
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
| As of September 30, 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance - U.S. | Public Finance - non-U.S. | Structured Finance - U.S. | Structured Finance - non-U.S. | Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ratings 1: | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | Net Par Outstanding | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior | $ | - | 0.0% | $ | - | 0.0% | $ | 14,501 | 21.6% | $ | 5,292 | 32.6% | $ | 19,793 | 5.5% | |||||||||||||||||
AAA | 4,114 | 1.6% | 1,300 | 5.3% | 25,557 | 38.1% | 7,132 | 43.9% | 38,103 | 10.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
AA | 106,973 | 42.1% | 1,169 | 4.8% | 13,920 | 20.7% | 1,332 | 8.2% | 123,394 | 34.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
A | 120,911 | 47.6% | 7,515 | 30.6% | 1,739 | 2.6% | 1,197 | 7.4% | 131,362 | 36.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
BBB | 20,698 | 8.2% | 13,571 | 55.3% | 1,228 | 1.8% | 1,198 | 7.4% | 36,695 | 10.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
BIG | 1,141 | 0.5% | 1,002 | 4.0% | 10,198 | 15.2% | 79 | 0.5% | 12,420 | 3.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 253,837 | 100.0% | $ | 24,557 | 100.0% | $ | 67,143 | 100.0% | $ | 16,230 | 100.0% | $ | 361,767 | 100.0% | |||||||||||||||||
Ceded Par Outstanding by Reinsurer and Insurer Financial Strength Rating
Reinsurer | Moody's Rating | S&P Rating | Ceded Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Affiliated Companies | A1 | AA | $ | 64,751 | 50.1% | ||||||||||
Non-Affiliated Companies: | |||||||||||||||
Radian Asset Assurance Inc. | Ba1 | BB- | 22,192 | 17.2% | |||||||||||
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. | Aa2 | AA | 19,803 | 15.3% | |||||||||||
RAM Reinsurance Co. Ltd. | WR | WR | 10,640 | 8.2% | |||||||||||
Syncora Guarantee Inc. | Ca | WR | 4,198 | 3.2% | |||||||||||
Swiss Reinsurance Company | A1 | A+ | 2,930 | 2.3% | |||||||||||
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co. Ltd. | Aa3 | AA- | 2,475 | 1.9% | |||||||||||
Other | Various | Various | 2,321 | 1.8% | |||||||||||
Non-Affiliated Companies | 64,559 | 49.9% | |||||||||||||
Total | $ | 129,310 | 100.0% | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 13
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2010
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.: | |||||||||
Public Finance: | |||||||||
California | $ | 36,055 | 10.0% | ||||||
New York | 21,087 | 5.8% | |||||||
Pennsylvania | 19,607 | 5.4% | |||||||
Texas | 17,157 | 4.7% | |||||||
Illinois | 16,015 | 4.4% | |||||||
Florida | 14,877 | 4.1% | |||||||
Michigan | 11,365 | 3.1% | |||||||
New Jersey | 11,356 | 3.1% | |||||||
Washington | 8,657 | 2.4% | |||||||
Massachusetts | 7,468 | 2.1% | |||||||
Other states | 90,193 | 24.9% | |||||||
Total Public Finance | 253,837 | 70.0% | |||||||
Structured finance (multiple states) | 67,143 | 18.6% | |||||||
Total U.S. | 320,980 | 88.6% | |||||||
Non-U.S.: | |||||||||
United Kingdom | 12,164 | 3.4% | |||||||
Australia | 5,093 | 1.4% | |||||||
Canada | 4,259 | 1.2% | |||||||
Italy | 1,764 | 0.5% | |||||||
France | 1,698 | 0.5% | |||||||
Other | 15,809 | 4.4% | |||||||
Total non-U.S. | 40,787 | 11.4% | |||||||
Total net par outstanding | $ | 361,767 | 100.0% | ||||||
Page 14
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings as of September 30, 2010
Ratings 1: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement 2 | Avg. Current Credit Enhancement 2 | | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | 19,259 | 34.1% | 27.9% | 26.3% | |||||||||||||
AAA | 30,446 | 53.8% | 23.6% | 23.7% | ||||||||||||||
AA | 4,126 | 7.3% | 37.9% | 33.2% | ||||||||||||||
A | 1,741 | 3.1% | 22.8% | 19.9% | ||||||||||||||
BBB | 764 | 1.4% | 11.8% | 9.4% | ||||||||||||||
BIG | 222 | 0.3% | 40.8% | 7.5% | ||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 56,558 | 100.0% | 26.0% | 24.9% | |||||||||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2010
Asset class: | Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement 2 | Avg. Current Credit Enhancement 2 | Avg. Rating 1 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBOs/CLOs 3 | $ | 29,822 | 52.7% | 26.4% | 25.9% | AAA | ||||||||||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates | 14,134 | 25.0% | 18.6% | 16.9% | AAA | |||||||||||||
Synthetic high yield pooled corporates | 10,202 | 18.0% | 38.0% | 33.2% | AAA | |||||||||||||
Market Value CDOs of corporates | 1,492 | 2.6% | 17.0% | 32.9% | AAA | |||||||||||||
Trust preferred - banks and insurance | 160 | 0.3% | 47.5% | 43.5% | A | |||||||||||||
CDO of CDOs (corporate) 4 | 35 | 0.1% | 24.1% | 30.3% | A- | |||||||||||||
Other pooled corporates | 713 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | A- | |||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 56,558 | 100.0% | 26.0% | 24.9% | AAA | ||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to AGM's exposure, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the numbers shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to adjustments.
3. CBOs(collateralized bond obligations)/CLOs(collateralized loan obligations) are largely non-investment/high yield collateral.
4. CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.
Page 15
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating 1 and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2010
Ratings: | Prime First Lien 2 | Closed End Seconds ("CES") | HELOC 3 | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | NIMs 4 | Total Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | ||||||||||
AAA | 4 | - | 415 | 86 | 111 | 1,237 | - | 1,851 | ||||||||||||||||||
AA | 101 | 208 | 255 | 39 | - | 249 | - | 852 | ||||||||||||||||||
A | 1 | - | - | - | - | 120 | - | 121 | ||||||||||||||||||
BBB | - | - | - | - | - | 247 | 31 | 277 | ||||||||||||||||||
BIG | - | 893 | 3,200 | 1,336 | 2,042 | 2,086 | 152 | 9,710 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 105 | $ | 1,102 | $ | 3,870 | $ | 1,462 | $ | 2,152 | $ | 3,938 | $ | 183 | $ | 12,811 | ||||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2010
Year insured 5: | Prime First Lien | CES | HELOC | Alt-A First Lien | Alt-A Option ARMs | Subprime First Lien | NIMs | Total Net Par Outstanding | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | 6 | $ | - | $ | 262 | $ | 70 | $ | - | $ | 1,257 | $ | - | $ | 1,596 | ||||||||||
2005 | - | - | 618 | 354 | 114 | 357 | - | 1,443 | ||||||||||||||||||
2006 | 98 | 445 | 1,457 | 501 | 834 | 126 | 86 | 3,547 | ||||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 657 | 1,532 | 537 | 1,204 | 2,130 | 96 | 6,157 | ||||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | 68 | - | 68 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 105 | $ | 1,102 | $ | 3,870 | $ | 1,462 | $ | 2,152 | $ | 3,938 | $ | 183 | $ | 12,811 | ||||||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating 1 and Year Insured as of September 30, 2010
Year insured: | Super Senior | AAA Rated | AA Rated | A Rated | BBB Rated | BIG Rated | Total | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior | $ | - | $ | 1,248 | $ | 2 | $ | 44 | $ | 16 | $ | 286 | $ | 1,596 | |||||||||
2005 | - | 163 | 105 | - | 46 | 1,128 | 1,443 | ||||||||||||||||
2006 | - | 162 | 98 | 77 | - | 3,210 | 3,547 | ||||||||||||||||
2007 | - | 278 | 646 | - | 147 | 5,087 | 6,157 | ||||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | 68 | - | 68 | ||||||||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | - | $ | 1,851 | $ | 852 | $ | 121 | $ | 277 | $ | 9,710 | $ | 12,811 | |||||||||
% of total | 0.0% | 14.5% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 75.8% | 100.0% |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
2. Includes primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous MBS transactions.
3. Home equity line of credit ("HELOC") securitizations.
4. NIMs are net interest margin securities.
5. AGM has not insured any U.S. RMBS transactions since 2008.
Page 16
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2010 1
U.S. CES
| Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor 2 | Subordination 3 6 | Cumulative Losses 4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies 5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year insured: | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005 | $ | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||
2006 | 445 | 22.5% | - | 54.5% | 17.1% | 2 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 657 | 26.3% | - | 60.3% | 11.8% | 9 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 1,102 | 24.8% | - | 58.0% | 13.9% | 11 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. HELOC
| Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year insured: | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005 | $ | 618 | 21.8% | 4.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 4 | |||||||||||||
2006 | 1,457 | 36.2% | 2.0% | 27.7% | 11.3% | 7 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 1,532 | 53.7% | 4.2% | 22.6% | 6.3% | 7 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 3,607 | 41.2% | 3.3% | 22.3% | 8.9% | 18 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. Alt-A First Lien
| Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year insured: | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005 | $ | 354 | 38.6% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 23.7% | 8 | |||||||||||||
2006 | 501 | 50.2% | 1.2% | 12.3% | 39.7% | 7 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 537 | 62.8% | 0.4% | 12.7% | 44.6% | 4 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 1,392 | 52.1% | 3.7% | 10.9% | 37.5% | 19 | ||||||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2010. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2010 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned ("REO") divided by net par outstanding.
6. Many of the CES transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently under-collateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the under-collateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions.
Page 17
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2010 1
U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs
| Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor 2 | Subordination 3 | Cumulative Losses 4 | 60+ Day Delinquencies 5 | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year insured: | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005 | $ | 114 | 32.3% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 41.7% | 3 | |||||||||||||
2006 | 834 | 58.1% | 5.2% | 10.4% | 52.3% | 6 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 1,204 | 62.5% | 3.3% | 12.5% | 46.5% | 6 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
$ | 2,152 | 59.2% | 4.1% | 11.5% | 48.5% | 15 | ||||||||||||||
U.S. Subprime First Lien
| Net Par Outstanding | Pool Factor | Subordination | Cumulative Losses | 60+ Day Delinquencies | Number of Transactions | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year insured: | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005 | $ | 357 | 38.0% | 45.4% | 4.3% | 38.9% | 6 | |||||||||||||
2006 | 126 | 40.8% | 43.5% | 11.1% | 39.8% | 2 | ||||||||||||||
2007 | 2,130 | 69.1% | 26.3% | 10.0% | 49.1% | 9 | ||||||||||||||
2008 | 68 | 72.4% | 33.6% | 6.3% | 32.8% | 1 | ||||||||||||||
$ | 2,681 | 63.7% | 29.8% | 9.2% | 46.9% | 18 | ||||||||||||||
1. For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2010. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2010 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.
2. Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.
3. Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.
4. Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.
5. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.
Page 18
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating 1 as of September 30, 2010
Rating: | Credit Cards | Manufactured Housing | Auto | Total Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAA | $ | - | $ | 82 | $ | 40 | $ | 122 | |||||||
AA | - | 45 | 1,237 | 1,282 | |||||||||||
A | - | - | 109 | 109 | |||||||||||
BBB | 88 | - | 592 | 680 | |||||||||||
BIG | - | 164 | - | 164 | |||||||||||
Total exposures | $ | 88 | $ | 291 | $ | 1,978 | $ | 2,357 | |||||||
Average rating 1 | BBB | A- | A+ | A+ | |||||||||||
Avg. initial credit enhancement 2 | 13.2% | 27.6% | 11.0% | 13.1% | |||||||||||
Avg. current credit enhancement 2 | 13.0% | 26.1% | 30.8% | 29.6% |
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
2. "Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to AGM's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to adjustments.
Page 19
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Rating
| As of September 30, 2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | % of Total | |||||||
Ratings1: | |||||||||
Super senior | $ | 19,238 | 34.2% | ||||||
AAA | 27,893 | 49.6% | |||||||
AA | 4,416 | 7.8% | |||||||
A | 2,514 | 4.5% | |||||||
BBB | 1,461 | 2.6% | |||||||
BIG | 736 | 1.3% | |||||||
Total credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 56,258 | 100.0% | ||||||
Distribution of Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Sector and Average Rating
| As of September 30, 2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Par Outstanding | Average Rating1 | |||||||
Public Finance | |||||||||
U.S. public finance | $ | 811 | A | ||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 2,666 | A | |||||||
Total public finance | $ | 3,477 | A | ||||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | $ | 39,299 | AAA | ||||||
Insurance securitizations | 368 | AA | |||||||
RMBS | 355 | BBB- | |||||||
Commercial receivables | 63 | BB | |||||||
Other structured finance | 119 | B | |||||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 40,204 | AAA | |||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 12,024 | AAA | |||||||
RMBS | 506 | AA- | |||||||
Insurance securitizations | 38 | A+ | |||||||
Structured credit | 9 | BBB | |||||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 12,577 | AAA | |||||||
Total structured finance | $ | 52,781 | AAA | ||||||
Total credit derivative net par outstanding | $ | 56,258 | AAA | ||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 20
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5)
As of September 30, 2010
(in millions)
| Net Par Outstanding1 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type: | ||||||
U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||
General obligation | $ | 519 | ||||
Healthcare | 197 | |||||
Tax backed | 189 | |||||
Municipal utilities | 160 | |||||
Housing | 6 | |||||
Higher education | 5 | |||||
Other public finance | 65 | |||||
Total U.S. public finance | 1,141 | |||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||
Infrastructure finance | 805 | |||||
Municipal finance | 197 | |||||
Total non-U.S. public finance | 1,002 | |||||
Total public finance | $ | 2,143 | ||||
U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||
RMBS | $ | 9,710 | ||||
Consumer receivables | 164 | |||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 143 | |||||
Commercial Receivables | 62 | |||||
Other structured finance | 119 | |||||
Total U.S. structured finance | 10,198 | |||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | ||||||
Pooled corporate obligations | 79 | |||||
Total non-U.S. structured finance | 79 | |||||
Total structured finance | $ | 10,277 | ||||
Total BIG net par outstanding | $ | 12,420 | ||||
Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
Page 21
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5)
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category1
| Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 20102 | December 31, 2009 | ||||||||
Description: | ||||||||||
BIG: | ||||||||||
Category 1 | ||||||||||
U.S. public finance | $ | 759 | $ | 991 | ||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | 1,002 | 380 | ||||||||
U.S. structured finance | 1,001 | 1,775 | ||||||||
Non-U.S. structured finance | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
Total Category 1 | 2,763 | 3,148 | ||||||||
Category 2 | ||||||||||
U.S. public finance | 198 | 330 | ||||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | - | - | ||||||||
U.S. structured finance | 4,479 | 4,601 | ||||||||
Non-U.S. structured finance | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
Total Category 2 | 4,679 | 4,933 | ||||||||
Category 3 | ||||||||||
U.S. public finance | 184 | 186 | ||||||||
Non-U.S. public finance | - | - | ||||||||
U.S. structured finance | 4,718 | 3,895 | ||||||||
Non-U.S. structured finance | 76 | 77 | ||||||||
Total Category 3 | 4,978 | 4,158 | ||||||||
BIG Total | $ | 12,420 | $ | 12,239 | ||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade ("BIG") credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories: BIG Category 1: Below investment grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make material losses possible, but for which no losses have been incurred. Non-investment grade transactions on which liquidity claims have been paid are in this category. BIG Category 2: Below investment grade transactions for which expected losses have been established but for which no unreimbursed claims have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below investment grade transactions for which expected losses have been established and on which unreimbursed claims have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains.
Page 22
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
Public Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||||
Detroit (City of) School District Michigan | $ | 162 | BB | |||||
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | 145 | D | ||||||
Jefferson County Alabama School Sales Tax Limited Obligation | 144 | BB | ||||||
Reading (City of) Pennsylvania | 113 | BB | ||||||
Detroit (City of) Michigan | 112 | BB+ | ||||||
Harrisburg (City of) Pennsylvania General Obligation | 75 | B- | ||||||
Mashantucket Pequot Tribe, Connecticut | 65 | B | ||||||
St. Barnabas Health System - New Jersey | 58 | BB | ||||||
Total | $ | 874 | ||||||
Non-U.S. Public Finance: | ||||||||
Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited | $ | 424 | BB | |||||
Aeroporti Di Roma (ADR) Romulus Finance S.R.L. (Rome Airport) | 213 | BB | ||||||
Hellenic Republic | 197 | BB+ | ||||||
Cross City Tunnel Motorway Finance Limited | 168 | BB | ||||||
Total | $ | 1,002 | ||||||
Total | $ | 1,876 | ||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Page 23
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | 60+ Day Delinquencies2 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||||
U.S. RMBS: | |||||||||||||||
MABS 2007-NCW | $ | 601 | B | 33.5% | 66.1% | ||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I | 534 | CCC | 0.0% | 8.9% | |||||||||||
MASTR 2007-3 | 531 | CCC | 2.9% | 54.3% | |||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F | 444 | CCC | 0.0% | 19.1% | |||||||||||
Option One 2007-FXD2 | 391 | CCC | 18.0% | 29.4% | |||||||||||
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 | 380 | CCC | 0.0% | 42.0% | |||||||||||
Harborview 2006-12 | 326 | BB | 9.7% | 56.6% | |||||||||||
MARM 2007-1 (FKA MASTR 2007-OA1) | 289 | CCC | 0.0% | 35.5% | |||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2005-D | 284 | CCC | 0.0% | 12.2% | |||||||||||
Countrywide 2007-13 | 277 | B | 31.6% | 56.4% | |||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A | 275 | CCC | 0.0% | 9.2% | |||||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-12SL | 250 | CCC | 0.0% | 19.0% | |||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2007-B | 246 | CCC | 0.0% | 8.3% | |||||||||||
GMACM 2004-HE3 | 246 | BB | 0.0% | 2.8% | |||||||||||
FHABS 2007-HE1 HELOC | 222 | BB | 0.0% | 2.6% | |||||||||||
CWABS 2007-4 | 219 | B | 22.0% | 43.5% | |||||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-1SL | 205 | CCC | 0.0% | 11.1% | |||||||||||
FHABS 2006-HE2 HELOC | 202 | BB | 0.0% | 4.2% | |||||||||||
Indymac 2007-H1 HELOC | 201 | CCC | 0.0% | 9.8% | |||||||||||
Soundview 2007-WMC1 | 197 | CCC | 10.9% | 71.4% | |||||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-10SL | 195 | CCC | 0.0% | 14.6% | |||||||||||
Harborview 2006-1 | 190 | CCC | 4.6% | 61.8% | |||||||||||
Harborview 2007-1 | 185 | BB | 13.0% | 58.1% | |||||||||||
New Century 2005-A | 167 | B | 20.5% | 30.9% | |||||||||||
Renaissance (DELTA) 2007-3 | 146 | B | 25.9% | 35.4% | |||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2005-C | 145 | CCC | 0.0% | 11.1% | |||||||||||
Harborview 2006-10 | 144 | B | 0.0% | 30.4% | |||||||||||
CSAB 2006-3 | 143 | CCC | 0.0% | 45.6% | |||||||||||
Flagstar HELOC 2006-2 | 124 | CCC | 21.3% | 10.9% | |||||||||||
Flagstar HELOC 2005-1 | 119 | BB | 18.5% | 6.4% | |||||||||||
NAAC 2007-S2 | 108 | CCC | 0.0% | 12.7% | |||||||||||
American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-4 | 105 | CCC | 0.0% | 31.3% | |||||||||||
IndyMac IMSC Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HOA1 | 95 | CCC | 0.0% | 31.2% | |||||||||||
CSAB 2006-2 | 91 | CCC | 2.1% | 40.3% | |||||||||||
Deutsche ALT-B 2006-AB1 | 90 | CCC | 3.7% | 29.6% | |||||||||||
Countrywide ALTA 2005-22T | 88 | B | 6.0% | 25.5% | |||||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-16HE | 71 | BB | 12.5% | 27.6% | |||||||||||
CSMC 2007-3 | 68 | CCC | 0.0% | 32.6% | |||||||||||
Deutsche ALT-B 2006-AB4 | 65 | CCC | 0.0% | 37.0% | |||||||||||
ACE 2006-GP1 | 64 | CCC | 0.0% | 10.0% | |||||||||||
ACE 2007-SL1 | 63 | CCC | 0.0% | 11.6% | |||||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-6ALT | 60 | CCC | 0.0% | 82.2% | |||||||||||
GSAA 2005-12 | 57 | B | 10.8% | 22.4% | |||||||||||
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-14HE | 56 | B | 11.1% | 26.1% | |||||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-H | 56 | CCC | 0.0% | 19.4% | |||||||||||
CWALT 2005-62 | 55 | CCC | 10.5% | 58.0% | |||||||||||
DSLA 2005-AR5 | 52 | CCC | 0.0% | 26.5% | |||||||||||
CSAB 2006-4 | 51 | CCC | 0.0% | 40.6% | |||||||||||
Luminent 2006-2 | 51 | CCC | 5.3% | 58.1% | |||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | $ | 9,224 | |||||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
2. 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO, divided by net par outstanding.
Page 24
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
Name or Description | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||
Other: | |||||||||||||
NRG Peaker | $ | 119 | B | N/A | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 113 | CCC | 7.7% | ||||||||||
Conseco Finance MH Series 2001-2 | 92 | BB | 17.0% | ||||||||||
Greenpoint 2000-4 | 72 | BB | 13.8% | ||||||||||
America West Airlines EETC | 63 | BB | N/A | ||||||||||
Total other | $ | 459 | |||||||||||
Total | $ | 9,683 | |||||||||||
Non-U.S. Structured Finance: | |||||||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | $ | 75 | CCC | 7.7% | |||||||||
Total | $ | 75 | |||||||||||
Total | $ | 9,758 | |||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Page 25
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(in millions)
50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey (State of) | $ | 2,897 | AA- | ||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) | 2,054 | AA | |||||
New York (State of) | 1,872 | AA | |||||
Chicago (City of) Illinois | 1,684 | AA- | |||||
New York (City of) New York | 1,505 | AA- | |||||
Illinois (State of) | 1,470 | A+ | |||||
Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority | 1,462 | A+ | |||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) State Sales Tax | 1,455 | AA | |||||
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of) | 1,399 | AA- | |||||
University of California Board of Regents | 1,391 | AA | |||||
Arizona (State of) | 1,382 | AA- | |||||
Wisconsin (State of) | 1,366 | A+ | |||||
Washington (State of) | 1,339 | AA | |||||
California (State of) | 1,322 | A- | |||||
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | 1,293 | AA+ | |||||
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey | 1,287 | AA- | |||||
Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System | 1,241 | BBB+ | |||||
Los Angeles California Unified School District | 1,223 | AA- | |||||
New York MTA Dedicated Tax | 1,134 | AA- | |||||
Broward County Florida School Board | 1,085 | AA- | |||||
New York MTA Transportation Authority | 1,084 | A | |||||
Denver Colorado School District No.1 | 1,016 | A+ | |||||
Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) | 1,005 | BBB- | |||||
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport | 991 | A+ | |||||
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources | 971 | AA | |||||
Los Angeles California Department of Water and Power - Electric Revenue Bonds | 958 | AA- | |||||
Long Island Power Authority | 945 | A- | |||||
Chicago-O'Hare International Airport | 939 | A | |||||
Illinois Toll Highway Authority | 933 | AA | |||||
San Diego County, California Water | 915 | AA | |||||
Connecticut (State of) | 898 | AA- | |||||
Michigan (State of) | 894 | A+ | |||||
New Jersey Turnpike Authority | 874 | A- | |||||
Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority, Florida | 869 | A+ | |||||
Louisiana (State of) Gas and Fuel Tax | 865 | A | |||||
Kentucky (Commonwealth of) | 843 | AA- | |||||
California State University System Trustee | 822 | AA- | |||||
Skyway Concession Company LLC | 820 | BBB | |||||
San Diego California Unified School District | 819 | AA | |||||
Detroit Michigan Sewer | 817 | A | |||||
Chicago Illinois Public Schools | 815 | A+ | |||||
Michigan (State of) Gas & Motor Vehicle Tax | 809 | AA | |||||
Metro Washington Airport Authority | 803 | AA- | |||||
California (State of) Department of Water Resources - Electric Power Revenue | 792 | A- | |||||
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Water and Wastewater System | 785 | A- | |||||
Austin Texas Combined Utility System Revenue Bonds | 780 | AA- | |||||
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania | 777 | BBB- | |||||
Hawaii (State of) Department of Hawaiian Home Lands | 771 | AA | |||||
Oregon (State of) | 764 | AA- | |||||
Detroit, Michigan Water System | 743 | A | |||||
Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures | $ | 55,978 | |||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Page 26
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Internal Rating1 | Current Credit Enhancement | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP. | $ | 1,268 | AA | 29.6% | ||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 1,126 | AAA | 13.3% | |||||||||
Stone Tower Credit Funding | 1,119 | AAA | 32.9% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 973 | AA- | 42.2% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 854 | AAA | 25.0% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 849 | Super Senior | 31.4% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 838 | Super Senior | 30.3% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 763 | Super Senior | 14.8% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 754 | Super Senior | 29.4% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 752 | Super Senior | 23.4% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 738 | Super Senior | 29.2% | |||||||||
Mizuho II Synthetic CDO | 735 | A | 30.7% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 730 | AA- | 40.0% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 652 | AAA | 17.2% | |||||||||
MABS 2007-NCW | 601 | B | 33.5% | |||||||||
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I | 534 | CCC | 0.0% | |||||||||
MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) | 531 | CCC | 2.9% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 523 | Super Senior | 29.7% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 521 | Super Senior | 24.5% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 512 | Super Senior | 14.3% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 492 | AAA | 46.7% | |||||||||
Eastland CLO, LTD | 489 | Super Senior | 33.9% | |||||||||
Denali CLO VII, LTD. | 488 | AAA | 20.0% | |||||||||
Avenue CLO V | 448 | AAA | 20.4% | |||||||||
Countrywide Heloc 2006-F | 444 | CCC | 0.0% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 433 | AAA | 10.7% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 429 | Super Senior | 12.0% | |||||||||
Churchill Financial Cayman | 413 | AAA | 36.2% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 399 | Super Senior | 14.0% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 398 | AAA | 35.6% | |||||||||
Grayson CLO | 396 | Super Senior | 24.0% | |||||||||
Westchester CLO | 391 | AAA | 34.2% | |||||||||
Option One 2007-FXD2 | 391 | CCC | 18.0% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 383 | Super Senior | 36.4% | |||||||||
Stone Tower III | 382 | AAA | 21.3% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 380 | Super Senior | 29.2% | |||||||||
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 | 380 | CCC | 0.0% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 378 | Super Senior | 14.2% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 377 | Super Senior | 10.3% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 368 | AAA | 29.5% | |||||||||
CENT CDO 15 LIMITED | 360 | Super Senior | 16.9% | |||||||||
Stone Tower CLO V | 357 | Super Senior | 28.0% | |||||||||
Americredit 2007-B-F | 353 | AA | 21.9% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 349 | AAA | 34.2% | |||||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 342 | AAA | 17.5% | |||||||||
MUIR GROVE CLO | 340 | AAA | 22.0% | |||||||||
KKR Financial CLO 2005-1 | 340 | AAA | 24.2% | |||||||||
Madison Park Funding | 329 | AAA | 25.8% | |||||||||
CIFC Funding 2006-1 | 328 | AAA | 23.1% | |||||||||
Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO | 327 | AAA | 30.0% | |||||||||
Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures | $ | 27,057 | ||||||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional Credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of Credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such Credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 27
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(in millions)
25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating1 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quebec Province | $ | 1,931 | A | ||||||
Sydney Airport Finance Company | 1,462 | BBB | |||||||
Thames Water Utility Finance PLC | 1,272 | A- | |||||||
Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC | 892 | BBB | |||||||
International AAA Sovereign Debt Synthetic CDO | 821 | AAA | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 700 | Super Senior | |||||||
Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency | 606 | AA | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 561 | Super Senior | |||||||
Artesian Finance II Plc (Southern) - Swap Policy | 503 | A- | |||||||
Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC | 475 | BBB | |||||||
Capital Hospitals (Issuer) PLC | 463 | BBB- | |||||||
Queen Street CLO I | 428 | Super Senior | |||||||
Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited | 424 | BB | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 416 | AAA | |||||||
Integrated Accomodation Services PLC | 401 | BBB+ | |||||||
The Hospital Company (QAH Portsmouth) Limited | 386 | BBB | |||||||
ETSA Utility Finance Pty Ltd. | 381 | A- | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 381 | Super Senior | |||||||
Verbund - Lease and Sublease of Hydro-Electric equipment | 380 | AAA | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 377 | Super Senior | |||||||
M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo | 377 | BBB | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 375 | AAA | |||||||
Stone Tower Credit Funding | 373 | AAA | |||||||
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO | 371 | Super Senior | |||||||
Campania Region - Healthcare receivable | 371 | A- | |||||||
Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures | $ | 15,127 | |||||||
1. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (2) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Page 28
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4)
As of September 30, 2010
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures
Servicer: | Net Par Outstanding | | | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bank of america, N.A.1 | $ | 5,485 | ||||||||||
American Home Mortgage Servicing, Inc | 1,676 | |||||||||||
GMAC Mortgage Corporation | 1,019 | |||||||||||
Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC. | 871 | |||||||||||
Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC. | 828 | |||||||||||
Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. | 746 | |||||||||||
OneWest Bank Group, LLC. | 626 | |||||||||||
First Tennessee Bank, N.A. | 426 | |||||||||||
Litton Loan Servicing LP | 269 | |||||||||||
Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc. | 269 | |||||||||||
Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicers exposures | $ | 12,215 | ||||||||||
10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name: | Net Par Outstanding | Rating2 | State | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Asante Health System | $ | 246 | A | OR | ||||||||
SSM Health Care | 242 | A+ | MO | |||||||||
Hospital Sisters Health Services Inc Obligated Group | 203 | AA- | IL | |||||||||
MultiCare Health System | 198 | A+ | WA | |||||||||
CHRISTUS Health | 189 | A+ | TX | |||||||||
Catholic Health Initiatives | 188 | AA | CO | |||||||||
Clarian Health Partners | 177 | A+ | IN | |||||||||
Carolina HealthCare System | 176 | AA- | NC | |||||||||
Columbus Regional Healthcare System Inc. | 170 | A- | GA | |||||||||
Covenant Health Hospital Revenue Bonds | 163 | A- | TN | |||||||||
Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures | $ | 1,952 | ||||||||||
1. Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP.
2. Assured Guaranty's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized rating agencies; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any nationally recognized rating agency.
Page 29
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense ("LAE") Reserves
(in millions)
| As of September 30, 2010 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial guaranty insurance reserves: | ||||||
Gross | $ | 176.3 | ||||
Ceded | 19.4 | |||||
Net financial guaranty insurance reserves | $ | 156.9 | ||||
Salvage and subrogation recoverable: | ||||||
Gross | $ | 602.9 | ||||
Ceded1 | 118.2 | |||||
Net salvage and subrogation recoverable | $ | 484.7 | ||||
Credit impairment on credit derivative contracts2: | ||||||
Case gross | $ | 137.8 | ||||
Case ceded | 31.5 | |||||
Case net credit derivative reserves | $ | 106.3 | ||||
Net loss and LAE reserves on financial guaranty insurance and credit derivative contracts, net of reinsurance3 | ||||||
Net loss and LAE reserves on financial guaranty contracts net of ceded reinsurance | $ | 156.9 | ||||
Credit impairment on credit derivative contracts | 106.3 | |||||
Net loss and LAE reserves | $ | 263.2 | ||||
1. Recorded in "reinsurance balances payable, net" on the consolidated balance sheets.
2. Credit derivative assets and liabilities recorded on the balance sheet incorporate estimates of expected losses.
3. Gross of salvage and subrogation assets.
Page 30
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties ("R&W") Benefit Development
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Insurance | # of Insurance Policies as of September 30, 2010 with R&W Benefit Recorded | Outstanding Principal and Interest Policies with R&W Benefit Recorded as of September 30, 2010 | Future Net R&W Benefit at December 31, 2009 | R&W Development and Accretion of Discount during Year | R&W Recovered During 2010 | Future Net R&W Benefit at September 30, 2010 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime first lien | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 11 | 1,512.2 | 53.2 | 18.0 | - | 71.2 | ||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 9 | 1,577.8 | 183.6 | 82.9 | 39.4 | 227.1 | ||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien (including NIMs) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
CES | 1 | 136.0 | - | 60.3 | - | 60.3 | ||||||||||||||
HELOC | 8 | 2,702.3 | 524.4 | 88.0 | 50.3 | 562.1 | ||||||||||||||
Total | 29 | $ | 5,928.3 | $ | 761.2 | $ | 249.2 | $ | 89.7 | $ | 920.7 | |||||||||
Credit Derivatives | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||
Page 31
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid
As of September 30, 2010
(in millions)
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives | Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions 1 | 3Q-10 Incurred Losses | 3Q-10 Paid Losses | Net Loss and LAE Reserve 1 | Net Salvage and Subrogation Assets | Expected Loss to be Expensed | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First Lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||
Prime first lien | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | $ | - | |||||||||
Alt-A first lien | 1,336.2 | 8.1 | 14.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 176.9 | |||||||||||||||
Alt-A option ARMs | 2,041.8 | 58.2 | 55.1 | 117.4 | 33.7 | 426.2 | |||||||||||||||
Subprime first lien (including NIMs) | 2,238.3 | 9.7 | 0.4 | 73.7 | - | 77.0 | |||||||||||||||
Total First Lien | 5,616.3 | 76.0 | 69.5 | 193.7 | 35.9 | 680.1 | |||||||||||||||
Second Lien: | |||||||||||||||||||||
CES | 893.5 | 5.4 | 11.7 | 28.0 | 35.4 | 177.6 | |||||||||||||||
HELOC | 3,200.4 | 10.2 | 114.9 | 0.2 | 451.8 | 207.2 | |||||||||||||||
Total Second Lien | 4,093.9 | 15.6 | 126.6 | 28.2 | 487.2 | 384.8 | |||||||||||||||
Total U.S. RMBS | 9,710.2 | 91.6 | 196.1 | 221.9 | 523.1 | 1,064.9 | |||||||||||||||
Other structured finance | 566.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 52.2 | - | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||
Public finance | 2,143.3 | 0.3 | 18.8 | 9.7 | 24.9 | 28.9 | |||||||||||||||
Total | $ | 12,419.9 | $ | 93.2 | $ | 215.8 | $ | 283.8 | $ | 548.0 | $ | 1,099.7 | |||||||||
Effect of consolidating of VIEs | - | (11.2 | ) | (29.3 | ) | (20.6 | ) | (63.3 | ) | (110.0 | ) | ||||||||||
Total excluding consolidated VIE amounts | $ | 12,419.9 | $ | 82.0 | $ | 186.5 | $ | 263.2 | $ | 484.7 | $ | 989.7 | |||||||||
1. Includes credit impairment on credit derivative transactions.
Page 32
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | ||||||||||||||||
Statutory Data | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Net income (loss) | $ | 338.5 | $ | 228.2 | $ | (1,376.7 | ) | $ | 312.9 | $ | 339.6 | $ | 293.5 | |||||||||
Policyholders' surplus | $ | 1,008 | $ | 909 | $ | 711 | $ | 1,609 | $ | 1,543 | $ | 1,511 | ||||||||||
Contingency reserve | 1,505 | 1,323 | 1,282 | 1,094 | 1,011 | 907 | ||||||||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital | 2,513 | 2,232 | 1,993 | 2,703 | 2,554 | 2,418 | ||||||||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve | 2,305 | 2,392 | 2,520 | 2,275 | 2,071 | 1,850 | ||||||||||||||||
Loss and LAE reserves | 670 | 1,022 | 1,688 | 98 | 53 | 54 | ||||||||||||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves | 5,488 | 5,646 | 6,201 | 5,076 | 4,678 | 4,322 | ||||||||||||||||
Present value of installment premiums | 714 | 783 | 963 | 1,113 | 828 | 804 | ||||||||||||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss | 498 | 498 | 550 | 550 | 550 | 550 | ||||||||||||||||
Total claims-paying resources | $ | 6,700 | $ | 6,927 | $ | 7,714 | $ | 6,739 | $ | 6,056 | $ | 5,676 | ||||||||||
Statutory Financial Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Loss and LAE ratio | 86.1% | 17.4% | 480.2% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 2.1% | ||||||||||||||||
Expense ratio | 37.2% | 48.1% | 9.1% | 30.0% | 29.9% | 27.8% | ||||||||||||||||
Combined ratio | 123.3% | 65.5% | 489.3% | 46.1% | 29.9% | 29.9% | ||||||||||||||||
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis): | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | $ | 525,385 | $ | 568,594 | $ | 631,886 | $ | 623,158 | $ | 552,695 | $ | 497,625 | ||||||||||
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) | 729,770 | 755,360 | 834,426 | 858,458 | 765,632 | 686,134 | ||||||||||||||||
Net par outstanding (end of period) | 351,494 | 381,148 | 424,393 | 426,512 | 376,456 | 351,398 | ||||||||||||||||
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | 475,867 | 493,798 | 545,568 | 564,515 | 498,619 | 472,374 | ||||||||||||||||
Ceded par to all Assured Guaranty companies | 62,239 | 32,501 | 32,927 | 30,872 | 37,590 | 44,599 | ||||||||||||||||
Ceded par to other companies | 62,134 | 79,433 | 88,248 | 107,131 | 84,573 | 76,377 | ||||||||||||||||
Ratios: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Par insured to statutory capital | 140:1 | 171:1 | 213:1 | 158:1 | 147:1 | 145:1 | ||||||||||||||||
Capital ratio 1 | 209:1 | 255:1 | 317:1 | 231:1 | 216:1 | 206:1 | ||||||||||||||||
Financial resources ratio 2 | 78:1 | 82:1 | 82:1 | 92:1 | 91:1 | 88:1 | ||||||||||||||||
Gross debt service written: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Public finance | $ | 29,707 | $ | 4,202 | $ | 85,666 | $ | 133,792 | $ | 127,294 | $ | 120,745 | ||||||||||
Structured finance | - | - | 5,193 | 57,434 | 48,794 | 40,347 | ||||||||||||||||
Total gross debt service written | $ | 29,707 | $ | 4,202 | $ | 90,859 | $ | 191,226 | $ | 176,088 | $ | 161,092 | ||||||||||
1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Page 33
Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.
Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.
Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.
Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.
Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.
Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution's revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.
Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.
Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.
Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.
Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the UK.
Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of CDS obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.
Other Public Finance. Other domestic public finance obligations insured by AGM include bonds secured by revenues and guarantees from the Federal government, financings supported by specific state or local government entity revenues and stadium financings.
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in "tranches," with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company's financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS") and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed- and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate ("ARM") and option adjustable-rate ("Option ARM") mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including "prime", "subprime" and "Alt-A". A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with
Page 34
higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.
Financial Products is the guaranteed investment contracts ("GICs") portion of the former Financial Products Business of AGMH. AGM has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on the GICs and in respect of the GICs business that cannot be revoked or cancelled. Assured Guaranty is indemnified against exposure to the former Financial Products Business by Dexia. In addition, the French and Belgian governments have issued guaranties in respect of the GICs portion of the Financial Products Business. The Financial Products Business is currently being run off.
Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.
Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS") are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multi-family, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties.
Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.
Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.
Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.
Page 35
Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP").
Assured Guaranty's management and board of directors utilize non-GAAP measures in evaluating the Company's financial performance and as a basis for determining senior management incentive compensation. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, investors, analysts and financial news reporters have access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty's presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty's financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty's financial results.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why they are useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented above. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures.
Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company's financial guaranty insurance business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company's financial results as compared to the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company's investments, including other than temporary impairments, and credit and interest rate related gains and losses from sales of securities. Impairments and losses from sales of credit-impaired securities, the timing of which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of other sales that would result in gains or losses, such as interest rate related gains or losses, is largely subject to the Company's discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company's tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company's business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions.
- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules.
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
- 4)
- Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premium receivables. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period's foreign exchange revaluation gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
- 5)
- Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain financial guaranty VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs and is not liable for such debt obligations.
- 6)
- Elimination of gain on bargain purchase in order to show the 2009 contribution to operating income of AGMH without the distorting effects of acquisition accounting adjustments recorded on the Acquisition Date.
Operating Shareholder's Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excluding fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders' equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s common shares. Many of the Company's fixed income investors also use operating shareholders' equity to evaluate the Company's capital adequacy. Operating shareholders' equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders' equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders' equity is defined as shareholder's equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs and is not liable for such debt obligations.
Page 36
- 2)
- Elimination of the after-tax non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
- 3)
- Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
- 4)
- Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investments, that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange revaluation). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore will not recognize an economic loss.
Operating return on equity ("Operating ROE"): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders' equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company's return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis.
Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders' equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders' equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
- 1)
- Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued that will be expensed in future accounting periods.
- 2)
- Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below.
- 3)
- Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of net expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.
Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company's credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes in excess of expected losses, and is discounted at 6% (which represents the Company's tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.
PVP or present value of new business production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives ("Credit Derivative Revenues") do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of insurance and credit derivative contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6% (the Company's tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.
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Contacts: Equity Investors: Sabra Purtill Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 408-6044 spurtill@assuredguaranty.com Ross Aron Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com | ||
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. 31 West 52nd Street New York, NY 10019 (212) 974-0100 www.assuredguaranty.com | Fixed Income Investors: Robert Tucker Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 339-0861 rtucker@assuredguaranty.com Michael Walker Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations (212) 261-5575 mwalker@assuredguaranty.com Media: Betsy Castenir Managing Director, Corporate Communications (212) 339-3424 bcastenir@assuredguaranty.com Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. September 30, 2010 Financial Supplement
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated Statements of Operations (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated Balance Sheets (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. New Business Production (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Underwriting Gain (Loss) (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Investment Portfolio As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Estimated Net Exposure Amortization1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Expected Amortization of U.S. and Non-U.S. Structured Finance Net Par Outstanding (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Net Insurance Losses to be Expensed (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 3) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5) As of September 30, 2010 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5) (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4) As of September 30, 2010 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense ("LAE") Reserves (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties ("R&W") Benefit Development (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Financial Guaranty Losses Incurred and Paid As of September 30, 2010 (in millions)
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Summary of Statutory Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions)
Glossary