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Project Heron
Update for the Board of Directors
PRELIMINARY | SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVIEW AND EVALUATION
October 18, 2005
THESE MATERIALS MAY NOT BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY PURPOSE OTHER THAN AS SPECIFICALLY CONTEMPLATED BY A WRITTEN AGREEMENT WITH CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON AND MORGAN STANLEY.
Heron Stock Price Performance
Stock Price Performance - August 31, 2004 - October 14, 2005
Current Share Price | | $ | 43.35 | |
52-Week High | | $ | 45.07 | |
52-Week Low | | $ | 29.91 | |
52-Week Avg. | | $ | 35.88 | |
3 Months Avg. | | $ | 39.61 | |
[CHART]
Since the Neptune offer, Heron stock has traded based on the underlying assumption of what Neptune is expected to pay and not based on fundamentals
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Heron Stock Price Performance Compared to Relevant Indices
Stock Price Performance - August 31, 2004 - October 14, 2005
| | Performance Since | |
Stock Price Performance | | 8/31/2004 | | 12/31/2004 | | 3/31/2005 | | 6/30/2005 | |
Heron | | 2.3 | % | 30.1 | % | 23.6 | % | 24.2 | % |
NASDAQ | | 12.3 | % | (5.1 | )% | 3.3 | % | 0.4 | % |
AMEX Biotech Index | | 25.2 | % | 14.0 | % | 25.9 | % | 9.9 | % |
Large Cap Biotech | | 35.3 | % | 23.9 | % | 35.3 | % | 14.3 | % |
Large Cap Biotech (excl. DNA) | | 19.6 | % | 10.5 | % | 27.8 | % | 19.9 | % |
Large Pharma | | (4.3 | )% | 1.5 | % | 4.7 | % | 0.2 | % |
[CHART]
Large Cap Biotech includes AMGN, BIIB, DNA, GENZ, GILD, MEDI
Large Pharma includes AZN, BMY, GSK, LLY, MRK, NVS, PFE, RHHBY
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Heron’s Valuation Parameters
Assessment of Valuation (1)
$
[CHART]
(1) As of August 2005, unaffected price the day immediately prior to announcement; Street forecast EPS estimates as of 10/14/05
(2) Discounted at 12.0%
(3) Reflects analyst price targets post announcement of Neptune offer as of 10/14/05
(4) Assumes perpetual growth rate of 1.0% – 3.0% for BioPharma (LTM NOPAT multiple of 12.4x), 2.0% – 4.0% for Vaccines (LTM NOPAT multiple of 15.4x), 2.0% – 4.0% for Blood Testing (LTM NOPAT multiple of 13.3x) and (2.0)% – 0.0% for Corporate Royalties (LTM NOPAT multiple of 8.7x); derived from Heron Management Projections
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Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis
Deviation from Midpoint Valuation (1)
$
[CHART]
(1) Base DCF value of $42.65 assumes a discount rate of 11.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0%
Source: Heron Management Forecast as of August 2005
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Heron Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis
Perpetual Growth Methodology (1)
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
$
[CHART]
(1) Assumes a discount rate of 11.0%
(2) As of August 31, 2005
(3) Assumes perpetual growth rate of 2.0% for BioPharma, 3.0% for Vaccines, 3.0% for Blood Testing and (1.0)% for Corporate Royalties
Source: Heron Management Forecast as of August 2005
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Selected Companies Analysis
(in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Stock | | % Of | | | | | | | | | | NOPAT | | | | | | Long- | | | | | |
| | Price | | 52-Week | | Equity | | Enterprise | | Revenue Multiple | | Multiple | | P/E | | Term | | PEG | |
Company | | 10/14/2005 | | High | | Value | | Value | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | LTM | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | EPS Grw. | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | |
Large Cap Biotech | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Amgen | | $ | 75.75 | | 87.1 | % | $ | 94,906 | | $ | 94,413 | | 6.5 | x | 5.9 | x | 18.8 | x | 20.8 | x | 18.5 | x | 16.4 | % | 1.27 | x | 1.12 | x |
Biogen Idec | | 38.02 | | 54.3 | % | 13,003 | | 11,244 | | 4.3 | | 3.9 | | 22.9 | | 19.1 | | 17.7 | | 14.2 | % | 1.34 | | 1.25 | |
Celgene | | 51.70 | | 87.9 | % | 10,430 | | 9,707 | | 13.1 | | 9.8 | | NM | | 51.7 | | 34.9 | | 47.2 | % | 1.09 | | 0.74 | |
Genentech | | 85.00 | | 89.5 | % | 93,248 | | 92,821 | | 10.7 | | 8.4 | | NM | | 47.4 | | 36.0 | | 33.9 | % | 1.40 | | 1.06 | |
Genzyme | | 69.50 | | 91.2 | % | 18,517 | | 18,068 | | 5.7 | | 5.1 | | 34.4 | | 25.6 | | 22.5 | | 19.1 | % | 1.34 | | 1.18 | |
Gilead Sciences | | 47.42 | | 95.9 | % | 22,432 | | 20,643 | | 9.1 | | 8.1 | | 37.0 | | 27.2 | | 24.4 | | 19.7 | % | 1.38 | | 1.23 | |
MedImmune | | 32.93 | | 94.1 | % | 8,243 | | 6,977 | | 5.1 | | 4.4 | | NM | | 72.9 | | 46.3 | | 25.9 | % | 2.81 | | 1.79 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | | 7.8 | x | 6.5 | x | 28.3 | x | 37.8 | x | 28.6 | x | 25.2 | % | 1.52 | x | 1.20 | x |
| | | | | | Median | | | | 6.5 | | 5.9 | | 28.7 | | 27.2 | | 24.4 | | 19.7 | % | 1.34 | | 1.18 | |
| | | | | | High | | | | 13.1 | | 9.8 | | 37.0 | | 72.9 | | 46.3 | | 47.2 | % | 2.81 | | 1.79 | |
| | | | | | Low | | | | 4.3 | | 3.9 | | 18.8 | | 19.1 | | 17.7 | | 14.2 | % | 1.09 | | 0.74 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
(in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Stock | | % Of | | | | | | | | | | NOPAT | | | | | | Long- | | | | | |
| | Price | | 52-Week | | Equity | | Enterprise | | Revenue Multiple | | Multiple | | P/E | | Term | | PEG | |
Company | | 10/14/2005 | | High | | Value | | Value | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | LTM | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | EPS Grw. | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | |
BioPharma & Blood Testing | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Abbott Laboratories | | $ | 42.64 | | 85.3 | % | $ | 66,631 | | $ | 70,833 | | 3.1 | x | 3.0 | x | 20.3 | x | 15.8 | x | 14.0 | x | 9.6 | % | 1.65 | x | 1.46 | x |
Bayer AG | | 36.37 | | 94.7 | % | 26,560 | | 35,249 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 25.3 | | 12.9 | | 16.2 | | 7.0 | % | 1.84 | | 2.31 | |
Johnson & Johnson | | 63.70 | | 91.0 | % | 191,744 | | 181,167 | | 3.3 | | 3.1 | | 18.7 | | 16.9 | | 15.3 | | 11.2 | % | 1.51 | | 1.37 | |
Roche Holdings | | 146.37 | | 97.0 | % | 126,413 | | 125,064 | | 4.1 | | 3.7 | | 24.7 | | 24.3 | | 19.3 | | 14.3 | % | 1.70 | | 1.35 | |
BioPharma & Vaccines | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
GlaxoSmithKline | | $ | 26.17 | | 98.6 | % | $ | 150,109 | | $ | 152,821 | | 3.8 | | 3.6 | | 17.2 | | 17.1 | | 15.4 | | 6.4 | % | 2.65 | | 2.40 | |
MedImmune | | 32.93 | | 94.1 | % | 8,243 | | 6,977 | | 5.1 | | 4.4 | | NM | | 72.9 | | 46.3 | | 25.9 | % | 2.81 | | 1.79 | |
Merck & Co. | | 27.16 | | 76.8 | % | 59,704 | | 56,248 | | 2.6 | | 2.6 | | 12.3 | | 11.3 | | 11.3 | | 4.3 | % | 2.66 | | 2.65 | |
Sanofi Aventis | | 84.43 | | 92.6 | % | 115,491 | | 131,728 | | 3.7 | | 3.5 | | NM | | 14.0 | | 12.5 | | 11.5 | % | 1.22 | | 1.08 | |
Wyeth | | 45.09 | | 96.0 | % | 60,762 | | 62,949 | | 3.1 | | 2.9 | | 16.7 | | 14.4 | | 13.5 | | 7.1 | % | 2.04 | | 1.91 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | | 3.4 | x | 3.1 | x | 19.5 | x | 21.8 | x | 17.9 | x | 11.0 | % | 2.0 | x | 1.8 | x |
| | | | | | Median | | | | 3.5 | | 3.1 | | 19.5 | | 16.4 | | 15.3 | | 10.4 | % | 1.8 | | 1.6 | |
| | | | | | High | | | | 5.1 | | 4.4 | | 25.3 | | 72.9 | | 46.3 | | 25.9 | % | 2.8 | | 2.7 | |
| | | | | | Low | | | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 12.3 | | 11.3 | | 11.3 | | 4.3 | % | 1.2 | | 1.1 | |
(in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Stock | | % Of | | | | | | | | | | NOPAT | | | | | | Long- | | | | | |
| | Price | | 52-Week | | Equity | | Enterprise | | Revenue Multiple | | Multiple | | P/E | | Term | | PEG | |
Company | | 10/14/2005 | | High | | Value | | Value | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | LTM | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | EPS Grw. | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | |
Blood Testing | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Beckman Coulter | | $ | 49.97 | | 68.1 | % | $ | 3,178 | | $ | 3,854 | | 1.5 | x | 1.4 | x | 16.0 | x | 16.5 | x | 14.0 | x | 13.9 | % | 1.19 | x | 1.01 | x |
Bio-Rad Laboratories | | 55.65 | | 88.9 | % | 1,487 | | 1,581 | | 1.3 | | NA | | 18.2 | | 15.5 | | NM | | 10.0 | % | 1.55 | | NM | |
Biosite | | 64.92 | | 96.2 | % | 1,229 | | 1,109 | | 3.5 | | 3.2 | | 22.8 | | 20.7 | | 19.9 | | 16.2 | % | 1.28 | | 1.23 | |
Cytyc | | 25.26 | | 87.0 | % | 2,912 | | 3,066 | | 5.1 | | 4.3 | | 28.3 | | 21.1 | | 17.1 | | 18.9 | % | 1.12 | | 0.90 | |
Dade Behring Holdings | | 34.63 | | 89.5 | % | 1,584 | | 1,941 | | 1.1 | | 1.1 | | 14.1 | | 24.0 | | 22.8 | | 18.0 | % | 1.33 | | 1.27 | |
Digene | | 29.53 | | 91.9 | % | 601 | | 555 | | 3.1 | | 2.6 | | 78.3 | | 39.5 | | 20.1 | | 30.0 | % | 1.32 | | 0.67 | |
Diagnostic Products | | 50.37 | | 87.3 | % | 1,503 | | 1,430 | | 2.6 | | 2.4 | | 22.9 | | 16.8 | | 15.2 | | 17.8 | % | 0.94 | | 0.85 | |
Gen-Probe | | 42.50 | | 80.0 | % | 2,211 | | 2,009 | | 5.9 | | 5.1 | | 42.0 | | 28.9 | | 23.9 | | 21.6 | % | 1.34 | | 1.11 | |
Immucor | | 23.78 | | 66.1 | % | 1,109 | | 1,087 | | 4.5 | | NA | | 39.8 | | 20.4 | | NM | | 23.3 | % | 0.87 | | NM | |
Tripath Imaging | | 7.00 | | 73.5 | % | 272 | | 251 | | 2.2 | | 1.4 | | NM | | 29.4 | | 9.9 | | 37.5 | % | 0.78 | | 0.26 | |
Ventana Medical System | | 36.87 | | 82.0 | % | 1,440 | | 1,374 | | 5.7 | | NM | | 61.3 | | 35.2 | | 25.3 | | 25.6 | % | 1.37 | | 0.99 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | | 3.3 | x | 2.7 | x | 34.4 | x | 24.4 | x | 18.7 | x | 21.2 | % | 1.19 | x | 0.92 | x |
| | | | | | Median | | | | 3.1 | | 2.5 | | 25.6 | | 21.1 | | 19.9 | | 18.9 | % | 1.28 | | 0.99 | |
| | | | | | High | | | | 5.9 | | 5.1 | | 78.3 | | 39.5 | | 25.3 | | 37.5 | % | 1.55 | | 1.27 | |
| | | | | | Low | | | | 1.1 | | 1.1 | | 14.1 | | 15.5 | | 9.9 | | 10.0 | % | 0.78 | | 0.26 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Note: Calendarized P/E Multiples and Long-Term EPS Growth Rates are based on I/B/E/S estimates; Projections from Wall Street Equity Research.
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(in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Stock | | % Of | | | | | | | | | | NOPAT | | | | | | Long- | | | | | |
| | Price | | 52-Week | | Equity | | Enterprise | | Revenue Multiple | | Multiple | | P/E | | Term | | PEG | |
Company | | 10/14/2005 | | High | | Value | | Value | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | LTM | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | EPS Grw. | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | |
Vaccines | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Acambis | | $ | 4.06 | | 77.0 | % | $ | 435 | | $ | 288 | | 2.0 | x | NM | | 37.2 | x | NM | | NM | | NM | | NM | | NM | |
Berna Biotech AG | | 9.97 | | 91.6 | % | 375 | | 293 | | 1.6 | | 1.3 | | NM | | 49.2 | | NM | | 3.0 | % | NM | | NM | |
CSL Limited | | 27.90 | | 92.0 | % | 5,171 | | 5,381 | | 2.6 | | 2.5 | | 7.1 | | 19.0 | | NM | | 15.8 | % | 1.21 | | NM | |
Nabi Biopharmaceuticals | | 12.17 | | 76.1 | % | 742 | | 708 | | 4.2 | | 2.9 | | NM | | NM | | NM | | NM | | NM | | NM | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | | 2.6 | x | 2.2 | x | 22.2 | x | 34.1 | x | NM | | 9.4 | % | 1.21 | x | NM | |
| | | | | | Median | | | | 2.3 | | 2.5 | | 22.2 | | 34.1 | | NM | | 9.4 | % | 1.21 | | NM | |
| | | | | | High | | | | 4.2 | | 2.9 | | 37.2 | | 49.2 | | — | | 15.8 | % | 1.21 | | — | |
| | | | | | Low | | | | 1.6 | | 1.3 | | 7.1 | | 19.0 | | — | | 3.0 | % | 1.21 | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
(in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Stock | | % Of | | | | | | | | | | NOPAT | | | | | | Long- | | | | | |
| | Price | | 52-Week | | Equity | | Enterprise | | Revenue Multiple | | Multiple | | P/E | | Term | | PEG | |
Company | | 10/14/2005 | | High | | Value | | Value | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | LTM | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | | EPS Grw. | | CY 2006E | | CY 2007E | |
Biotech | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Allergan | | $ | 87.41 | | 91.6 | % | $ | 11,889 | | $ | 11,590 | | 4.7 | x | 4.3 | x | 28.3 | x | 23.3 | x | 19.9 | x | 17.5 | % | 1.33 | x | 1.13 | x |
Biogen Idec | | 38.02 | | 54.3 | % | 13,003 | | 11,244 | | 4.3 | | 3.9 | | 22.9 | | 19.1 | | 17.7 | | 14.2 | % | 1.34 | | 1.25 | |
Celgene | | 51.70 | | 87.9 | % | 10,430 | | 9,707 | | 13.1 | | 9.8 | | NM | | 51.7 | | 34.9 | | 47.2 | % | 1.09 | | 0.74 | |
Cephalon | | 44.86 | | 85.9 | % | 2,631 | | 5,551 | | 3.9 | | 3.8 | | 33.7 | | 14.4 | | 13.0 | | 18.5 | % | 0.77 | | 0.70 | |
Elan | | 8.10 | | 26.6 | % | 3,533 | | 4,099 | | 7.7 | | 6.8 | | NM | | NM | | NM | | 15.8 | % | NM | | NM | |
Forest Laboratories | | 36.22 | | 74.8 | % | 12,540 | | 10,709 | | 3.2 | | 3.0 | | 10.3 | | 13.9 | | 12.0 | | 13.5 | % | 1.03 | | 0.89 | |
Genzyme | | 69.50 | | 91.2 | % | 18,517 | | 18,068 | | 5.7 | | 5.1 | | 34.4 | | 25.6 | | 22.5 | | 19.1 | % | 1.34 | | 1.18 | |
Gilead Sciences | | 47.42 | | 95.9 | % | 22,432 | | 20,643 | | 9.1 | | 8.1 | | 37.0 | | 27.2 | | 24.4 | | 19.7 | % | 1.38 | | 1.23 | |
MedImmune | | 32.93 | | 94.1 | % | 8,243 | | 6,977 | | 5.1 | | 4.4 | | NM | | 72.9 | | 46.3 | | 25.9 | % | 2.81 | | 1.79 | |
Millennium Pharmaceuticals | | 8.26 | | 61.1 | % | 2,562 | | 2,162 | | 4.3 | | 3.7 | | NM | | NM | | NM | | 15.0 | % | NM | | NM | |
Serono | | 16.47 | | 84.0 | % | 7,286 | | 6,588 | | 2.3 | | 2.1 | | 12.0 | | 16.0 | | 13.8 | | 18.0 | % | 0.89 | | 0.77 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Mean | | | | 5.8 | x | 5.0 | x | 25.5 | x | 29.3 | x | 22.7 | x | 20.4 | % | 1.33 | x | 1.08 | x |
| | | | | | Median | | | | 4.7 | | 4.3 | | 28.3 | | 23.3 | | 19.9 | | 18.0 | % | 1.33 | | 1.13 | |
| | | | | | High | | | | 13.1 | | 9.8 | | 37.0 | | 72.9 | | 46.3 | | 47.2 | % | 2.81 | | 1.79 | |
| | | | | | Low | | | | 2.3 | | 2.1 | | 10.3 | | 13.9 | | 12.0 | | 13.5 | % | 0.77 | | 0.70 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Note: Calendarized P/E Multiples and Long-Term EPS Growth Rates are based on I/B/E/S estimates; Projections from Wall Street Equity Research.
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