Dear Fellow Shareholders:
We are pleased to present you with this semi-annual report for Value Line Core Bond Fund and The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. (individually, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”) for the six months ended June 30, 2017.
During the semi-annual period, the taxable and tax-exempt fixed income markets generated positive absolute returns. The semi-annual period was also highlighted by The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. outpacing the category average return of its peers for the one-year period ended June 30, 2017 (muni national long category), as measured by Morningstar.1 Morningstar also gave The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. an overall Risk Rating of Low.i
On the following pages, the Funds’ portfolio managers discuss the management of their respective Funds during the semi-annual period. The discussions highlight key factors influencing recent performance of the Funds. You will also find a schedule of investments and financial statements for each of the Funds.
Before reviewing the performance of your individual mutual fund investment(s), we encourage you to take a brief look at the major factors affecting the financial markets during the six months ended June 30, 2017, especially given the newsworthy events of the semi-annual period. With meaningful and surprising shifts during the first half of 2017 in several drivers of the capital markets, we also invite you to take this time to consider a broader diversification strategy by including additional Value Line Funds in your investment portfolio. You can find out more about the entire family of Value Line Funds at our website, www.vlfunds.com.
Economic Review
Overall, the semi-annual period was one of slow economic growth and low inflation both in the U.S. and globally.
For the first quarter of 2017, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged 1.4%, which was weaker than the 2.1% growth rate registered in the fourth quarter of 2016. This weaker number was due primarily to a drop in federal, state and local government spending along with a deceleration in imports. Second quarter GDP is expected to be better, around 2% or somewhat higher. During the semi-annual period, the labor market was a source of strength. U.S. unemployment declined from 4.7% to 4.4%, considered near full employment. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged 180,000 for the semi-annual period, strong but slightly less than the 186,000 per month on average in 2016. However, average hourly earnings declined from a 2.9% to a 2.5% growth rate, below the peak of previous economic expansions. Manufacturing was an additional source of strength to the U.S. economy, improving throughout the first half of 2017. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was lower than expected, as energy and consumer prices fell and wage growth remained muted. More specifically, headline CPI rose 1.6% year over year before seasonal adjustment as of June 2017, a figure that has been declining rather steadily since February 2017, when it was 2.7%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.7% in June 2017 from a year earlier. While the food segment of the CPI increased 0.9% during the 12 months ended June 30, 2017, the energy segment of the CPI rose 2.3% over the same 12-month span. However, notably, the energy segment of the CPI decreased in four of the six months of the semi-annual period, most recently declining 2.7% in May 2017 and 1.6% in June 2017.
Based in large part on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) view that the low unemployment rate would trigger wage inflation, the Fed embarked on a path of tightening monetary policy, raising the targeted federal funds rate twice during the semi-annual period — in March and June 2017 — by 25 basis points each, bringing it to a range of 1.00% to 1.25% by the end of the semi-annual period. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) At the end of June 2017, the Fed was widely expected to raise interest rates once more this calendar year. This caused short-term interest rates to rise, with the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note increasing from 1.19% to 1.38% during the first half of 2017. Seemingly moving in a similar direction, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled its intention during the semi-annual period to pull back from its accommodative stance, putting pressure on European short-term interest rates. Since many European investors buy U.S. bonds, this put further upward pressure on U.S. short-term interest rates. On the other hand, yields on longer-term U.S. Treasuries were not adversely affected by Fed or ECB policy. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined from 2.44% to 2.27% during the semi-annual period, with longer-term investors purchasing bonds spurred by lower than expected inflation.
Rising interest rates in the U.S. did not benefit the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies. On June 30, 2017, the U.S. Dollar Index (“DXY”)2 declined to its lowest level since October 2016. Following the U.S. presidential elections, the DXY had risen to its highest level in 14 years, but it declined since, mainly reflecting the potential impact of the new Administration’s protectionist trade policies.
Fixed Income Market Review
The broad U.S. investment grade fixed income market, as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index3, posted a return of 2.27% during the semi-annual period. Less accommodative central bank policy both domestically and globally put pressure on shorter-term interest rates, while longer-term rates declined due to lower than expected inflation. This caused a flattening of the yield curve. (A flattening yield curve is one in which the differential in yields of securities with various maturities narrows.) Interest rates on maturities of three years or less rose during the semi-annual period, while interest rates on maturities of beyond three years declined.
More specifically, the yield on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill rose approximately 52 basis points, and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note increased approximately 19 basis points. The yield on the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury note decreased approximately 17 basis points, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond declined approximately 24 basis points during the semi-annual period.