Dear Fellow Shareholders:
We are pleased to present you with this semi-annual report for Value Line Core Bond Fund and The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. (individually, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”) for the six months ended June 30, 2019.
During the semi-annual period, the taxable and tax-exempt fixed income markets generated solid positive absolute returns, boosted by a variety of economic and market factors discussed below. Further, the semi-annual period was highlighted by each of the fixed income Value Line Funds being recognized for its long-term performance and/or attractive risk profiles.
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Value Line Core Bond Fund earned an overall four-star rating from Morningstar1,2 in the intermediate core bond category among 343 funds as of June 30, 2019 based on risk-adjusted returns. Morningstar gave the Fund an overall Return Rating of Highi.
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The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. was given an overall Risk Rating of Below Averageii by Morningstar.1
On the following pages, the Funds’ portfolio managers discuss the management of their respective Funds during the semi-annual period. The discussions highlight key factors influencing recent performance of the Funds. You will also find a Schedule of Investments and financial statements for each of the Funds.
Before reviewing the performance of your individual mutual fund investment(s), we encourage you to take a brief look at the major factors affecting the financial markets during the six months ended June 30, 2019, especially given the newsworthy events of the semi-annual period. With meaningful trends and some surprising shifts during the first half of 2019 in several drivers of the capital markets, we also invite you to take this time to consider a broader diversification strategy by including additional Value Line Funds in your investment portfolio. You can find out more about the entire family of Value Line Funds at our website, www.vlfunds.com.
Economic Review
Overall, the semi-annual period was one of positive but weakening economic growth and lower inflation both in the U.S. and globally. For the first quarter of 2019, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth registered 3.1%, stronger than the 2.2% GDP growth rate for the final quarter of 2018. However, U.S. economic growth is predicted to be notably slower for the second quarter of 2019, with the advance estimate coming in at a 2.1% GDP growth rate. A major reason for the slowdown is a significant weakening in manufacturing, not just in the U.S., but globally. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, an important measure, declined from 56.6 to 51.7 during the first six months of 2019. Germany’s manufacturing index went from near 50 to 45, and China’s manufacturing index was similarly below 50 at the end of the semi-annual period. Continuing trade tensions with China and the levying of tariffs contributed to this global slowdown. Even the U.S. labor market, though still healthy, slowed. While unemployment fell to 3.6%, the lowest level since 1969, non-farm payroll growth, which averaged 223,000 jobs monthly for 2018 slowed to an average of 172,000 jobs monthly for the first half of 2019. Consumer confidence was mixed but ended June 2019 sharply lower as optimism about the labor market and the economy waned on escalating trade tensions with China and Mexico.
On the inflation front, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator, which is the indicator for average price increases for all domestic personal consumption derived from the largest component of the GDP, averaged 2.0% for 2018 and fell to 1.5% at the end of June 2019. This is significantly below the 2.0% inflation target of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), causing concern over the health of the economy. Another sign pointing to a significant economic slowdown was the U.S. bond market. The three-month U.S. Treasury bill was yielding 2.12% at the end of June 2019, while the five-year U.S. Treasury note had a yield of 1.76%. This differential reflected an inverted yield curve, whereby the shorter maturity security yielded more than the longer maturity security. An inverted yield curve has been a sign, historically, of a recession within the following year or so. While past performance is no guarantee of future results and a recession in the U.S. may well be averted should there be favorable resolution to political and geopolitical headwinds, an inverted yield curve has preceded most economic recessions during the last 50 years.
Against this backdrop of weaker economic data and lower than expected inflation, the Fed significantly shifted its stance from 2018, adopting an increasingly dovish bias as the months progressed in an effort to maintain financial stability following the heightened market volatility of the fourth quarter of 2018. (Dovish tends to imply lower interest rates; opposite of hawkish.) For example, in January 2019, the Fed left its monetary policy unchanged and also eliminated language about “further gradual increases in rates,” cementing investor expectations for a near-term pause in rate hikes. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the U.S. central bank would be largely guided by inflation indicators as well as by the global economic growth backdrop and the potential for financial market volatility. In March 2019, the Fed paused its near-term fed funds rate increases, announcing it expected no rate increases during 2019 and only one in 2020. In the subsequent months of the semi-annual period, the release of minutes from the Fed’s meetings confirmed policymakers’ dovish tilt. Still, the Fed believed during much of the first half of the calendar year that the economy was in good shape and the slowdown in inflation was transitory. But, as manufacturing data continued to weaken, and the U.S.-China trade talks failed, opinions amongst Fed policymakers began to shift in June 2019 in favor of the need for accommodation. At the Fed’s June 2019 meeting, eight of 12 Fed policymakers projected interest rate cuts in 2019. There was also a consensus among market participants at the end of the semi-annual period that the Fed would likely begin to lower interest rates as soon as July 2019. Other developed markets’ central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, turned similarly dovish during the semi-annual period.
On the commodities front, markets overall posted double-digit positive returns during the semi-annual period, despite a weak second calendar quarter. Such gains for the semi-annual period as a whole were driven primarily by a recovery in petroleum prices and a rally in gold. Overall, commodities during the first half of 2019 were boosted by the Fed’s dovish turn in its monetary policy, a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and a rallying U.S. equity market that more than offset the headwinds of trade tensions and numerous geopolitical flashpoints.