Dear Fellow Shareholders:
We are pleased to present you with this semi-annual report for Value Line Core Bond Fund and The Value Line Tax Exempt Fund, Inc. (individually, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”) for the six months ended June 30, 2018.
During the semi-annual period, the taxable and tax-exempt fixed income markets generated modestly negative absolute returns, pressured by a variety of economic and market factors discussed below. On the following pages, the Funds’ portfolio managers discuss the management of their respective Funds during the semi-annual period. The discussions highlight key factors influencing recent performance of the Funds. You will also find a Schedule of Investments and financial statements for each of the Funds.
Before reviewing the performance of your individual mutual fund investment(s), we encourage you to take a brief look at the major factors affecting the financial markets during the six months ended June 30, 2018, especially given the newsworthy events of the semi-annual period. With meaningful trends and some surprising shifts during the first half of 2018 in several drivers of the capital markets, we also invite you to take this time to consider a broader diversification strategy by including additional Value Line Funds in your investment portfolio. You can find out more about the entire family of Value Line Funds at our website, www.vlfunds.com.
Economic Review
Overall, the semi-annual period was one of improving U.S. economic growth and modestly increasing inflation.
For the first quarter of 2018, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth registered 2.0%. Retail sales were particularly weak in the first two months of the calendar year, a key factor in keeping growth rates slower than the 2.9% GDP growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2017. However, retail sales then picked up considerably in March, April and May 2018, leading economists to forecast second quarter GDP growth to be considerably stronger, possibly reaching an annualized growth rate of 3.8% or more. The U.S. labor market remained healthy throughout the semi-annual period, as job gains averaged 214,000 per month, higher than the 188,000 monthly average for the year 2017. Unemployment fell from 4.1% at the beginning of the calendar year to 4.0% in June 2018, the lowest level in more than 18 years. In the month of May 2018, U.S. unemployment actually achieved its lowest reading of the semi-annual period at 3.8%. Manufacturing also remained strong, with the most important measure, the ISM Manufacturing Survey, reaching its highest level in more than nine months. Because of this economic strength, inflation, which had been tame for so long, finally started to pick up, albeit modestly. Although average hourly earnings among U.S. workers did not increase, the broadest measure of inflation, which the Federal Reserve (the Fed) closely follows, i.e. the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, which excludes food and energy, rose from 1.5% in January 2018 to 2.0% on a year over year basis as of May 2018 (latest data available).
The modest uptick in inflation supported the Fed’s tightening monetary policy. During the semi-annual period, the Fed increased its targeted federal funds rate twice—in March and June 2018—bringing it to a range of 1.75% to 2.00%. The Fed also signaled to investors that it would increase interest rates once or possibly twice more before the calendar year ends. While U.S. inflation had only increased modestly, Fed policymakers stated concerns about the low unemployment rate, which they believe may eventually push wages higher, driving the overall inflation rate even higher. The hikes in the federal funds rate mostly affected short-term fixed income securities, whose yields rose significantly during the semi-annual period. For example, the two-year U.S. Treasury note started the semi-annual period with a yield of 1.88% and ended June with a yield of 2.53%, an increase of 65 basis points. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) Long-term fixed income securities fared somewhat better. The bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury note began the semi-annual period with a yield of 2.40% and ended June with a yield of 2.86%, up 46 basis points.
Despite the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy, which has the potential to slow economic growth through reduced credit activity, many economists were optimistic at the end of the semi-annual period about economic growth prospects for the months ahead, largely due to fiscal policy. The U.S. tax reform package passed by Congress and signed into law in December 2017 could well drive better corporate earnings through lower corporate tax rates and improved consumer spending. However, working against this positive scenario is the current U.S. Administration’s imposition of tariffs on Western Europe, Canada, Mexico and, perhaps most significantly, China. Historically, tariffs have slowed economic growth and added to inflationary pressures. If these recent decisions regarding tariffs—and any potentially resulting trade wars—follow historical precedent, they could have an important effect on both U.S. and global economic growth going forward.
On the commodities front, markets overall rose on fundamental strength but with geopolitical hindrance and uncertainty surrounding actual and potential tariffs imposed by the U.S. Administration and escalating trade tensions dominating the direction of various commodity prices. Oil prices rose strongly, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices appreciating approximately 23% during the semi-annual period on a positive supply/demand scenario. Gold prices declined on rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Fixed Income Market Review
Indicators of economic strength negatively affected both the taxable and tax-exempt fixed income markets. The broad U.S. investment grade fixed income market, as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index1, posted a return of -1.62% during the semi-annual period. Less accommodative central bank policy both domestically and globally put pressure on shorter-term interest rates, with only a modest increase in longer-term rates given still-low inflation. This caused a flattening of the yield curve. (A flattening yield curve is one in which the differential in yields of securities with various maturities narrows.) While rates rose across the yield curve, or spectrum of maturities, interest rates on maturities of three years and less rose most.