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CONFIDENTIAL
[GRAPHIC]
A Presentation to:
The Board of Directors of
TWINS
Regarding:
Update on Strategic Alternatives
July 20, 2005
300 Crescent Court, Suite 600 | |
Dallas, TX 75201 | [LOGO] |
214-258-2700 | |
www.stephens.com | |
Little Rock | | Atlanta | | Dallas | | Nashville | | New York |
Table of Contents
| I. | Process Update |
| | |
| II. | TWINS Current Performance |
| | |
| III. | New Management Case |
| | |
| IV. | Migration to Non-Asset Based Model and Recap |
| | |
| V. | Next Steps |
| | |
| Exhibits |
| | |
| A. | Comparable Companies Analysis |
[LOGO]
2
[GRAPHIC]
I. Process Update
Process Update
• At the BOD’s request Stephens has begun initial testing of potential buyers.
• “No name” discussion to determine initial interest.
• NDA sent.
• Management approved information packet sent.
• Status of the calling effort to date:
• Strategic Buyers:
• 12 contacted.
• 5 show interest.
• Financial Buyers:
• 8 contacted.
• 2 passed.
• At the conclusion of today’s meeting we hope to clarify the BOD’s intentions such that we ensure a smooth efficient process that maximizes the Company’s alternatives and value.
4
Current Status of Potential Buyers
Strategic Buyers
| | Comments |
Interested: | | |
Celadon Group | | Still discussing information to be provided/NDA. |
Crete Carrier Corp. | | Interested. NDA sent. |
Heartland Express | | Received signed NDA. Information package sent. |
Knight Transportation | | Interested. NDA sent. |
Swift Transportation | | Received signed NDA. Information package sent. |
| | |
Passed: | | |
Contrans Income Fund | | Focused on Canadian market. |
CRST | | Not interested in this size of acquisition at the moment. |
J.B. Hunt | | Still not in acquisition mode. |
Schneider | | Looking for non-asset based growth and not dry van. |
TransForce Income Fund | | Not interested in U.S. based carrier. |
USA Truck | | Not interested in acquisitions of size right now. |
Werner Enterprises | | Prefer to grow internally. |
Financial Buyers
| | Comments |
Interested: | | |
The Broe Companies | | Interested. NDA sent. |
Fenway Partners | | Interested. NDA sent. |
Goldner Hawn | | Interested. NDA sent. |
Jefferies Capital | | Interested. NDA sent. |
Thayer Capital | | Interested. NDA sent. |
| | |
Initial Call Only: | | |
Platinum Equity | | |
| | |
Passed: | | |
Eos Partners | | Currently focused on non-asset based companies. |
Greenbrier Equity | | Not interested in asset-based dry van TL. |
5
[GRAPHIC]
II. TWINS Current Performance
Company Performance
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)
| | 2Q04 | | 2Q05 | | 2Q05 | | For the Six Months Ended | |
| | Actual | | Actual | | Budget | | 6/30/04 | | 6/30/05 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenue | | $ | 65.2 | | $ | 62.8 | | $ | 64.2 | | $ | 127.4 | | $ | 124.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EBITDA | | 8.3 | | 7.3 | | 6.3 | | 15.0 | | 13.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EBIT | | 2.3 | | 1.5 | | 0.8 | | 3.3 | | 2.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net Income | | 0.9 | | 0.5 | | 0.1 | | 1.0 | | 0.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EPS | | $ | 0.13 | | $ | 0.07 | | $ | 0.02 | | $ | 0.14 | | $ | 0.09 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Margins: | | | | | | | | | | | |
EBITDA | | 12.7 | % | 11.6 | % | 9.8 | % | 11.8 | % | 11.1 | % |
EBIT | | 3.5 | % | 2.5 | % | 1.3 | % | 2.6 | % | 1.9 | % |
Operating Ratio | | 96.5 | % | 97.5 | % | 98.7 | % | 97.4 | % | 98.1 | % |
Net Income | | 1.4 | % | 0.8 | % | 0.2 | % | 0.8 | % | 0.5 | % |
7
Potential Market Reaction to 2Q Results
Initial market reaction could be neutral to slightly positive upon announcement, but may turn negative as outsiders continue to analyze TWINS operating metrics.
• Outperform Management Estimates, but Underperform 2004 and Feltl
• Market will be unaware of actual performance relative to management’s plan.
• Market will compare performance sequentially and based on prior year results.
• Those following Feltl will be disappointed as 2Q estimate is $0.13.
• Quality of Earnings
• Better than expected earnings driven primarily due to:
• Reduction of incentive plan bonus accruals — $0.02.
• Workers compensation (lower current claims, positive developments in old claims) — $0.025.
• Better medical claim experience — $0.015.
• Sustainability may be questioned.
• Key Operating Metrics Still Lagging
• Drivers
• Average monthly seated Company drivers have decreased sequentially month over month since February.
• New student enrollments have picked up in July however.
• Utilization decreased month over month in 2Q
• Revenue/total seated/week decreased from $3,519 in April to $3,497 in June.
• Deadhead increased from 10.9% in April to 11.1% in June versus an expected decline to 10.4%.
• Consider delaying announcement of Stephens role in advising the BOD on strategic alternatives.
8
[GRAPHIC]
III. New Management Case
Overview of New Management Case
• Key changes to the New Management Case include:
• Seated Company Tractors — delayed driver ramp, but catches up to previous plan by end of 2006.
• Deadhead — improvements from elimination of freight in non-targeted lanes.
• Non-Asset Revenue:
• In 2005, shift trailers to take advantage of favorable intermodal prices — 37% incremental margins.
• Grow 2006-2008 annually at 20% versus 10-15% previously.
• Cost Reductions:
• Planned reduction in G&A headcount.
• Slightly lower driver pay due to increased mix of student drivers.
• No tractor sales — will need by year end.
• No service centers closures.
• Execution risks we have identified include:
• Ability to ramp Company drivers given driver environment.
• Ability to grow non-asset based services at such high rates.
10
Projected Income Statement - New Management Case
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)
| | For the Projected Fiscal Year Ending December 31, | | CAGR | |
| | 2005E | | 2006E | | 2007E | | 2008E | | ‘05 - ‘08 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenue: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Asset Based | | $ | 244.5 | | $ | 292.8 | | $ | 324.5 | | $ | 344.1 | | 12.1 | % |
Non-Asset Based | | 16.0 | | 19.2 | | 23.0 | | 27.6 | | 20.0 | % |
Total Revenues | | 260.5 | | 311.9 | | 347.4 | | 371.7 | | 12.6 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EBIT | | 8.9 | | 14.8 | | 20.4 | | 24.2 | | 39.8 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EPS | | $ | 0.55 | | $ | 0.98 | | $ | 1.39 | | $ | 1.67 | | 44.8 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Average Seated Company Tractors | | 880 | | 1,106 | | 1,290 | | 1,385 | | | |
Average Seated Total Tractors | | 1,378 | | 1,526 | | 1,640 | | 1,685 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Ratios: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating Ratio | | 96.6 | % | 95.3 | % | 94.1 | % | 93.5 | % | | |
Debt to Total Capitalization | | 44.2 | % | 53.9 | % | 51.4 | % | 47.3 | % | | |
ROIC | | 4.1 | % | 5.9 | % | 7.0 | % | 7.9 | % | | |
11
Comparison of New and Previous Management Cases
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)
Average Seated Total Tractors | | Operating Ratio |
| | |
[CHART] | | [CHART] |
| | |
% Non-Asset Based Revenue | | EPS |
| | |
[CHART] | | [CHART] |
12
Potential Valuation - Market Multiples
| | New Management Case | | Previous Management Case | |
| | Mid-2006 | | Mid-2007 | | Mid-2008 | | Mid-2006 | | Mid-2007 | | Mid-2008 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Year EPS | | $ | 0.98 | | $ | 1.39 | | $ | 1.67 | | $ | 0.97 | | $ | 1.12 | | $ | 1.32 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Future Per Share Price | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
at Multiple of: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12.0x | | $ | 11.73 | | $ | 16.68 | | $ | 20.04 | | $ | 11.66 | | $ | 13.41 | | $ | 15.82 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
14.0 | | 13.69 | | 19.46 | | 23.38 | | 13.61 | | 15.64 | | 18.46 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
16.0 | | 15.64 | | 22.24 | | 26.72 | | 15.55 | | 17.87 | | 21.09 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Discounted Per Share Price | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
at Multiple of: (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
12.0x | | $ | 10.47 | | $ | 13.30 | | $ | 14.26 | | $ | 10.41 | | $ | 10.69 | | $ | 11.26 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
14.0 | | 12.22 | | 15.51 | | 16.64 | | 12.15 | | 12.47 | | 13.13 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
16.0 | | 13.97 | | 17.73 | | 19.02 | | 13.88 | | 14.25 | | 15.01 | |
Note: For further valuation analysis see page 14.
(a) Discounted back to 6/30/05 using an equity discount rate of 12.0%.
13
Valuation Analysis - New Management Case
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)
The revised topline growth coupled with profitability improvements in 2007 and 2008 significantly raise the DCF and LBO valuation ranges.
[CHART]
| | Comparable Company | | Acquisition Multiple | | DCF | | LBO | | Market Price | |
| | LTM EBIT | | FY 2005 EBIT | | FY 2005 EPS | | FY 2005 EBIT | | FY 2005 EPS | | Perpetual Growth Rate 4.0% - 5.0% | | IRR | | 52 Week | |
Data: | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 8.9 | | $ | 0.55 | | $ | 8.9 | | $ | 0.55 | | Discount Rate | | 25.0 - 30.0% | | High / Low | |
Metric: | | 10.0x - 12.0x | | 9.0x - 11.0x | | 12.0x - 16.0x | | 9.0x - 11.0x | | 13.0x - 17.0x | | 11.0% | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
14
[GRAPHIC]
IV. Migration to Non-Asset Based Model and Recap
Migration to NAB Model and Recap — Benefits/Issues
BENEFITS | | ISSUES |
• Signals dramatic change for enhancing shareholder value. • Transition shareholder base to supporters of the new vision. • Capitalizes on trend of non-asset based model with prospect of increased multiple to follow. • Potential long-term enhancement of returns on capital and minimizes capital expenditures going forward. | | • Shareholder reaction of those looking for execution on TWINS asset-based history. • Substantial management time required — may be difficult to keep eye on ball of core operations • Integration risk. • Management depth in running substantial non-asset based business — may need to “buy” management team. • Free cash flow and balance sheet constraints will limit ability to pursue “transforming” acquisitions. • Competitive environment for non-asset based deals has driven transaction multiples higher. • Risk of losing customers. • Degradation of returns and increased debt in the near-term. • EPS dilution. . |
16
Overview of Migration to Non-Asset Based Case
• Management plans the following to migrate TWINS to a primarily non-asset based model:
• Started with the “new” management case
• Limit equipment growth to solely maintaining status quo throughout the projection period (approximately 1,400 tractors).
• Cost reduction, lane enhancements, and other operational improvements consistent with new management plan.
• Bolster M&A strategy to effect one non-asset based acquisition per year (pages 18-20).
• Results in 46% of business being non-asset based by 2008.
• Execution risks we have identified include:
• Availability, competition and price of acquisition targets.
• Integration risk.
• Management talent to acquire, manage and grow non-asset based business.
• Risk in shifting focus from core business (e.g., customers, employees, etc.).
17
Pursuing a Non-Asset Based Acquisition Strategy
Requirements to Pursue Acquisition Strategy:
• Cash on hand, ability to borrow, stock representing attractive acquisition currency.
• Current availability under credit facility of $17.6 million — un-encumbered assets may allow for additional $15-20 million.
• Experience managing the acquisition process and ability to act quickly.
• Confidence of the Street/new investors that you can buy right and quickly integrate.
Feasibility of Acquisition Strategy:
• Transforming acquisitions would be challenging:
• Few available — auction atmosphere.
• Negative arbitrage — high multiples.
• Tack-on’s
• Depending on size, several of these acquisitions and several years may be required to reach target critical mass.
• Allows TWINS to build management expertise over time.
• Seek acquisitions with lower execution risk and higher compatibility with existing business.
• Sale multiples still high historically
• Recent transactions have traded at EBITDA multiples approaching 8.0x.
18
Based on our assessment, we believe TWINS should focus its non-asset based acquisition strategy on companies with brokerage and intermodal capabilities.
Logistics-Model | | Asset Intensity | | Mkt Valuation | | Execution Risk | | Overall Fit | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Brokerage | | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i033.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i034.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i033.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i034.jpg)
| |
| | | | | | | | | |
Intermodal | | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i035.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i035.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i036.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i034.jpg)
| |
| | | | | | | | | |
Dedicated | | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i037.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i036.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i036.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i035.jpg)
| |
| | | | | | | | | |
Agent-Based TL | | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i036.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i037.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i037.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i036.jpg)
| |
| | | | | | | | | |
Freight Forwarding | | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i033.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i034.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i037.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i033.jpg)
| |
| | | | | | | | | |
Warehousing | | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i035.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i037.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i037.jpg)
| | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i033.jpg)
| |
![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i034.jpg)
| High | ![](https://capedge.com/proxy/SC 13E3A/0001047469-05-028771/exc3i033.jpg)
| | Low |
19
We have assumed current market valuations and standard brokerage/IMC financials for TWINS’
acquisitions.
Transaction Assumptions
Transaction Date #1 | | 12/31/05 | |
Transaction Date #2 | | 12/31/06 | |
Transaction Date #3 | | 12/31/07 | |
| | | |
EBIT | | $ | 2.9 | |
EBIT Multiple | | 9.0 | x |
Transaction Value | | $ | 25.9 | |
Implied EBITDA Multiple | | 7.7 | x |
Financial Summary
Income Statement: | | $ | | % | |
Revenue | | 60.0 | | $ | 100.0 | % |
Depreciation | | 0.5 | | 0.8 | % |
Operating Expenses | | 57.1 | | 95.2 | % |
EBIT | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 4.0 | % |
| | | | | | | |
20
Projected Financials - Migration Case
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)
| | For the Projected Fiscal Year Ending December 31, | | CAGR | |
| | 2005E | | 2006E | | 2007E | | 2008E | | ’05 - ’08 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenue: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Asset Based | | 244.5 | | $ | 272.4 | | $ | 280.9 | | $ | 294.0 | | $ | 6.3 | % |
Non-Asset Based | | 16.0 | | 79.2 | | 155.0 | | 246.0 | | 148.8 | % |
Total Revenues | | 260.5 | | 351.6 | | 435.9 | | 540.0 | | 27.5 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EBIT | | 8.9 | | 13.9 | | 18.1 | | 24.6 | | 40.5 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
EPS | | $ | 0.55 | | $ | 0.83 | | $ | 0.98 | | $ | 1.34 | | 34.6 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Average Seated Company Tractors | | 880 | | 1,000 | | 1,070 | | 1,140 | | | |
Average Seated Total Tractors | | 1,378 | | 1,420 | | 1,420 | | 1,440 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Ratios: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating Ratio | | 96.6 | % | 96.1 | % | 95.8 | % | 95.4 | % | | |
Debt to Total Capitalization | | 55.9 | % | 60.8 | % | 65.6 | % | 61.3 | % | | |
ROIC | | 4.1 | % | 5.2 | % | 5.5 | % | 6.4 | % | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Summary Balance Sheet: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Goodwill | | $ | 22.9 | | $ | 45.8 | | $ | 68.8 | | $ | 68.8 | | | |
Total Debt | | 76.2 | | 101.4 | | 137.2 | | 127.9 | | | |
Stockholders’ Equity | | 60.1 | | 65.5 | | 72.0 | | 80.8 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
21
Comparison of Migration Case to New Management Case
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)
% Non-Asset Based Revenue
[CHART]
Debt to Total Capitalization
[CHART]
EPS
[CHART]
ROIC
[CHART]
22
Potential Valuation - Market Multiples
• To account for a greater percentage of non-asset based revenue, we have increased the market PE multiple by two turns.
• Due to higher risk associated with this strategy, we have increased the cost of equity assumption (discount rate) to 17.0% from the 12.0% used in the Management Case.
| | Migration Case | |
| | Mid-2006 | | Mid-2007 | | Mid-2008 | |
| | | | | | | |
Current Year EPS | | $ | 0.83 | | $ | 0.98 | | $ | 1.34 | |
Future Per Share Price at Multiple of: | | | | | | | |
14.0x | | $ | 11.57 | | $ | 13.74 | | $ | 18.76 | |
16.0 | | 13.22 | | 15.70 | | 21.44 | |
18.0 | | 14.87 | | 17.66 | | 24.12 | |
| | | | | | | |
Discounted Per Share Price at Multiple of: (a) | | | | | | | |
14.0x | | 9.88 | | $ | 10.04 | | $ | 11.71 | |
16.0 | | 11.30 | | 11.47 | | 13.38 | |
18.0 | | 12.71 | | 12.90 | | 15.06 | |
Note: For further valuation analysis see page 23.
(a) Discounted back to 6/30/05 using an equity discount rate of 17.0%.
23