Exhibit 99(a)(5)(xvi)
From: Rodenburg J.J. (Jan) (KPNCC M&A Management)
Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2009 4:22:10AM
To: Manning, Matthew (IBD)
Cc: Braat, D. (Daniel) (KPNCC M&A Management); Terry, Ari (IBD); Uematsu, K. (Kenji) (KPNCC M&A Management); Kadaba, Arvind (IBD); Cahu, Dominique (IBD); Fincher, James D (IBD)
Subject: Project Celtic - Business Case
Attachments: 090429 Project Celtic - Business Case v_senttoMS.xls
Matthew and MS team,
Please find attached the Business Case we have prepared which will serve as the basis for our discussion on Friday.
We propose to have the call at 17:00 CET /11:00 EST. Could you advice whether this time suits you and if its possible to use the regular dial-in below. If not, I’ll provide with a KPN dial-in.
Looking forward to discussing the business case with you and please let us know should you have any questions.
Kind regards,
Jan
ACCESS CODE
Participant Code: 987362
DIAL-IN INSTRUCTIONS
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Jan Rodenburg
KPN Royal Dutch Telecom
Mergers & Acquisitions
Maanplein 55
2516 CK The Hague
JX 096
| Confidential | KPN00029988 |
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 70 3434 861
Mob: +31 647142925
Email: HYPERLINK “mailto:jan.rodenburg@kpn.com”jan.rodenburg@kpn.com
| Confidential | KPN00029989 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Project Celtic - Business Case Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 2007 Q1 2008 Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Total minutes of use Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Price per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate price per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Cost per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate cost per minute Margin per minute Wholesale Margin Outsourced Margin Retail Margin Total Margin per minute Margin Strictly private and confidential Page 1 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029990
AUTOPATH
Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 2007 Q1 2008
P&L Revenue Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total revenue Growth Y/Y Cost of sale Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total Cost of sale Gross profit Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total gross profits Margin Operating expenses Research & Development % of revenue SG&A % of revenue Total Opex $ of revenue EBITDA Margin D&A PPE % of revenue Amortization intangibles % of revenue Depreciation A Amortization % of revenue Stock-based compensation EBIT Margin Taxes on EBIT Tax rate Interest income Interest expense Taxes paid Implied tax rate Net income Cash flow Capex (Cumulative for year) Capex (Period) % of sales
Strictly private and confidential Page 2 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029991
| AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
kpn
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | |
| 4 | Q1 2007 | Q2 2007 | Q3 2007 | Q4 2007 | 2007 | Q1 2008 | ||||||
| 119 | �� | |||||||||||
| 120 | EBITDA less capex | 5.6 | ||||||||||
| Strictly private and confidential | Page 3 of 20 | Print date: AUTODATE |
| Confidential | KPN00029992 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Project Celtic - Business Case Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Total minutes of use Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Price per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate price per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Cost per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregrate cost per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Margin per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Margin Outsourced Margin Retail Margin Total Margin per minute Margin Strictly private and confidential Page 4 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029993
Mergers and Acquisitions kpn P&L Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Revenue Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total revenue Growth Y/Y Cost of sale Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total Cost of sale Gross profit Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total Gross Profit Margin Operating Expenses Research & Development % of revenue SG&A % of revenue Total Opex % of revenue EBITDA Margin D&A PPE % of revenue Amortization intangibles % of revenue Depreciation & Amortization % of revenue Stock-based compensation EBIT Margin Taxes on EBIT Tax rate Interest Income Interest expense Taxes paid Implied tax rate Net income Cash Flow Capex (Cumulative for year) Capex (Period) % of sales Strictly private and confidential Page 5 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029994
| AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
kpn
| B | C | D | E | F | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | |
| 4 | Q2 2008 | Q3 2008 | Q4 2008 | 2008 | Q1 2009 | Q2 2009 | Q3 2009 | |||||
| 119 | ||||||||||||
| 120 | EBITDA less capex | 11.3 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 26.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | ||||
| Strictly private and confidential | Page 6 of 20 | Print date: AUTODATE |
| Confidential | KPN00029995 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Project Celtic - Business Case Q4 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Total minutes of use Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Price per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate price per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Cost per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate cost per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Margin per minute Wholesale Margin Outsourced Margin Retail Margin Total Margin per minute Margin Strictly private and confidential Page 7 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029996
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Project Celtic - Business Case Q4 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P&L Revenue Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total revenue Growth Y/Y Cost of sale Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total Cost of sale Gross profit Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total gross profit Margin Operating expenses Research & Development % of revenue SG&A $ of revenue Total Opex % of revenue EBITDA Margin D&A PPE % of revenue Amortization intangibles % of revenue Depreciation & Amortization % of revenue Stock-based compensation EBIT Margin Taxes on EBIT Tax rate Interest income Interest expense Taxes paid Implied tax rate Net income Cash flow Capex (Cumulative for year) Capex (period) % of sales Strictly private and confidential Page 8 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029997
| AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
kpn
| B | C | D | E | F | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
| 4 | Q4 2009 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||
| 119 | ||||||||||||
| 120 | EBITDA less capex | 6.9 | 26.5 | 22.9 | 21.4 | 19.6 | 18.1 | 18.3 | ||||
| Strictly private and confidential | Page 9 of 20 | Print date: AUTODATE |
| Confidential | KPN00029998 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Project Celtic - Business Case 2015 2016 2017 2018 9-year CAGR Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Total minutes of use Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Price per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate price per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Cost per minute Wholesale Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate cost per minute Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Margin per minute Wholesale Margin Outsourced Margin Retail Margin Total Margin per minute Margin Strictly private and confidential Page 10 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029999
2015 2016 2017 2018 9-year CAGR P&L Revenue Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total revenue Growth Y/Y Cost of sale Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total Cost of sale Gross profit Wholesale Outsourced Retail Total gross profit Margin Operating expenses Research & Development % of revenue SG&A % of revenue Total Opex % of revenue EBITDA Margin D&A PPE % of revenue Amortization intangibles % of revenue Depreciation & Amortization % of revenue Stock-based compensation EBIT Margin Taxes on EBIT Tax rate Interest income Interest expense Taxes paid Implied tax rate Net income Cash flow Capex (Cumulative for year) Capex (Period) % of sales Strictly private and confidential Page 11 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030000
| AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
kpn
| B | C | D | E | F | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | |||
| 4 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 9-year CAGR | |||||||
| 119 | ||||||||||||
| 120 | EBITDA less capex | 18.5 | 18.7 | 19.0 | 19.2 | |||||||
| Strictly private and confidential | Page 3 of 20 | Print date: AUTODATE |
| Confidential | KPN00030001 |
AUTOPATH
Mergers and Acquisitions
kpn
| Cell: | L8 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | L11 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | L14 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | G17 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies | ||
| Cell: | G31 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies | ||
| Cell: | Q31 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release | ||
| Cell: | Q45 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release | ||
| Cell: | G62 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies | ||
| Cell: | L62 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | Q62 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release | ||
| Cell: | L63 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | Q63 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release | ||
| Cell: | L64 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | Q64 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| IBAS press release | ||
| Cell: | L69 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | L70 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies (all Q’s) | ||
| Cell: | L71 | |
| Comment: | Jan Rodenburg: | |
| Jefferies (all Q’s) |
| Strictly private and confidential | Page 13 of 20 | Print date: AUTODATE |
| Confidential | KPN00030002 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Cell: Q75 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: IBAS press release Cell: Q76 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: IBAS press release Cell: Q77 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: IBAS press release Cell: L82 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: M82 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: N82 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: 082 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: L86 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: M86 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: N86 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: O86 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies Cell: P94 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 88 Cell: U94 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Set equal to capex Cell: U96 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 89 Cell: V96 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K’08 page 89 Cell: W96 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 89 Cell: X96 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 89 Strictly private and confidential Page 14 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030003
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Cell: Y96 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 89 Cell: P98 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 67 Cell: V101 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies forecast Cell: W101 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies forecast Cell: X101 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies forecast Cell: Y101 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies forecast Cell: Z101 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Jefferies forecast Cell: K110 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K ‘08 page 52 Cell: P110 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: 10K’08 page 52 Cell: U117 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Company guidance Strictly private and confidential Page 15 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030004
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn A B C D E F G H I J K Jefferies and Co. projections January 27 - 2009 ($ mn) Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 2009 Minutes of Use Growth Price per minute Growth Revenue Wholesale Growth Outsourced from KPN Growth Retail Growth Total revenue Growth COGS Wholesale Growth Outsourced from KPN Growth Retail Growth Total COGS Growth Gross profit Margin Operating expenses Research & Development % of revenue Selling & Marketing % of revenue General & Administrative % of revenue Total Opex EBITDA Margin Depreciation % of revenue Stock-based compensation EBIT Margin Strictly private and confidential Page 16 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030005
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn L M N O P 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Strictly private and confidential Page 17 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030006
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Business case ($ mn) 2004PF 2005PF 2006PF 2007PF 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue Growth Coast of revenue Gross margin Margin Operating expenses Operating EBITDA Margin Depreciation an amort. Operating EBIT Margin Capex EBITDA - Capex Revenue ($ mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case Jefferies and Co. Gross margin ($ mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case Jefferies and Co. EBITDA ($ mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case Jefferies and Co. EBITDA - capex ($ mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case Jefferies and Co. Gross margin (%) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case Jefferies and Co. EBITDA margin (%) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case Jefferies and Co. Jefferies ($mn) Revenue Growth Cost of revenue Gross margin Operating expenses Operating EBITDA Margin Depreciation and amort. Operating EBIT Margin Capex EBITDA - Capex Strictly private and confidential Page 18 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030007
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA 2004PF 2005PF 2006PF 2007PF 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Strictly private and confidential Page 19 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030008
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions kpn Cell: C3 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Source: Volcano SvB presentation Cell: D3 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Source: Volcano SvB presentation Cell: E3 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Source. Volcano SvB presentation Cell: F3 Comment: Jan Rodenburg: Source jeffries report Q4 08 Strictly private and confidential Page 20 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030009