Exhibit 99.(a)(38)
| From: Rodenburg, J.J.(Jan) (KPNCC M&A Management) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2009 4:22:10 AM To: Manning, Matthew (IBD) Cc: Braat, D. (Daniel) (KPNCC M&A Management); Terry, Ari (IBD); Uematsu, K.(Kenji) (KPNCC M&A Management); Kadaba, Arvind (IBD); Cahu, Dominique (IBD); Fincher, James D (IBD) Subject: Project Celtic - Business Case Attachments: 090429 Project Celtic - Business Case v_senttoMS.xls Matthew and MS team, Please find attached the Business Case we have prepared which will serve as the basis for our discussion on Friday. We propose to have the call at 17:00 CET/11:00 EST. Could you advice whether this time suits you and if its possible to use the regular dial-in below. If not, I’ll provide with a KPN dial-in. Looking forward to discussing the business case with you and please let us know should you have any questions. Kind regards, Jan ACCESS CODE Participant Code: 987362 DIAL-IN INSTRUCTIONS MS Internal Ext.: 000-1313 NA Access: New York: + 1 718 754-6999/914 225-6999 EU Access: London: +44 20 7425-2721/7677-2721 UAE: + 971 4 709 7200 ASIA Access: Tokyo: + 81 3 5424-5253 / +813 6401-5253 Hong Kong: +852 2239-1616 Melbourne/Sydney: +61 3 9256-8919/ +61 2 9770-1321 Mumbai: + 91 22 2209-7896 Seoul: +82 2 3275-4646 Shanghai/Beijing: + 86 21 2321-2199/ +86 10 6536-2727 Singapore: +65 6834-6262 Taipei: +886 22730-1760 Toll free-NA: + 1 877 777 8895 *Toll free-Non-NA: **Intl dial code – 80 07 770-0000 *Toll free-Non-NA may not be not fully supported in all regions within a country where available. In the event access is denied, please use one of the local access numbers listed above. **Intl dial code is different in different countries, please refer to HYPERLINK “http://iconf/”http://iConf website for complete list by country. Jan Rodenburg KPN Royal Dutch Telecom Mergers & Acquisitions Maanplein 55 2516 CK The Hague JX 096 Confidential KPN00029988 |
The Netherlands
Tel: +31 70 3434 861
Mob: +31 6 4714 2925
Email: HYPERLINK “mailto:jan.rodenburg@kpn.com”jan.rodenburg@kpn.com
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions Project Celtic - Business Case Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 2007 Q1 2008 Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale 4.800 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced 0.500 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail 0.500 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Total minutes of use 5.500 5.900 6.200 6.200 23.800 5.800 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y 5.5% Price per minute Wholesale 0.053 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced 0.100 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail 0.041 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate price per minute 0.056 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Cost per minute Wholesale 0.048 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Outsourced 0.080 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Retail 0.034 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Aggregate cost per minute 0.050 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y Margin per minute Wholesale 0.005 Margin 8.5% Outsourced 0.020 Margin 20.4% Retail 0.007 Margin 16.9% Total Margin per minute 0.006 10.9% Strictly private and confidential Page 1 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029990 |
| Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 2007 Q1 2008 P&L Revenue Wholesale 255.7 271.2 282.4 273.8 1,083.1 254.1 Outsourced 43.6 48.6 53.1 52.0 197.3 50.2 Retail 25.5 27.9 32.0 24.8 110.2 20.6 Total revenue 324.8 347.7 367.5 350.6 1,390.6 324.9 Growth Y/Y Cost of sale Wholesale 232.4 Outsourced 40.0 Retail 17.1 Total Cost of sale 1,248.2 289.5 Gross profit Wholesale 21.7 Outsourced 10.2 Retail 3.5 Total gross profit 32.2 36.9 34 39.3 142.4 35.4 Margin 9.9% 10.6% 9.3% 11.2% 10.2% 10.9% Operating expenses Research & Development 6.6 % of revenue 2.0% SG&A 17.6 % of revenue 5.4% Total Opex 90.1 24.2 % of revenue 7.4% EBITDA 13 14.5 10.4 14.4 52.3 11.2 Margin 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% D&A PPE 8.8 3.1 % of revenue 0.9% Amortization intangibles 23.2 4.2 % of revenue 1.3% Depreciation & Amortization 32.0 7.2 % of revenue 2.2% Stock-based compensation 2.7 0.6 Select Off EBIT 20.3 4.0 Margin 1.5% 1.2% Taxes on EBIT (6.1) (1.2) Tax Rate 30.0% 30.0% 1.7 Interest income ('0.7) Interest expense 8.5 Taxes Paid Implied tax rate 12.8 Net income Cash Flow Capex (Cumulative for year) (5.7) Capex (Period) (5.7) % of sales 1.7% Strictly private and confidential Page 2 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029991 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions
60; KPN
A B C D E F G H I J K L
4 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 2007 Q1 2008
119
120 EBITDA less capex ; 5.6
Strictly private and confidential Page 3 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE
Confidential 0; KPN00029992
| Project Celtic - Business Case Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of use (in bn) Wholesale 4.900 4.500 4.400 18.600 3.916 3.916 3.955 Growth Q/Q 2.1% (8.2%) (2.2%) (11.0%) 0.0% 1.0% Growth Y/Y (18.4%) (20.1%) (12.1%) Outsourced 0.700 0.700 0.700 2.600 0.644 0.644 0.650 Growth Q/Q 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% (8.0%) 0.0% 1.0% Growth Y/Y 28.8% (8.0%) (7.1%) Retail 0.500 0.700 0.600 2.300 0.570 0.564 0.567 Growth Q/Q 0.0% 40.0% (14.3%) (5.0%) (1.0%) 0.5% Growth Y/Y 14.0% 12.9% (19.0%) Total minutes of use 6.100 5.900 5.700 23.500 5.130 5.124 5.173 Growth Q/Q 5.2% (3.3%) (3.4%) (10.0%) (0.1%) 0.9% Growth Y/Y 3.4% (4.8%) (8.1%) (1.3%) (11.6%) (16.0%) (12.3%) Price per minute Wholesale 0.056 0.053 0.050 0.053 0.047 0.046 0.046 Growth Q/Q 4.9% (4.8%) (5.2%) (6.7%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (11.6%) (16.6%) (13.3%) Outsourced 0.097 0.101 0.076 0.093 0.075 0.074 0.073 Growth Q/Q (3.6%) 4.0% (24.3%) (2.3%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (25.8%) (23.8%) (27.5%) Retail 0.042 0.042 0.043 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 Growth Q/Q 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Growth Y/Y 3.1% 0.9% (1.0%) Aggregate price per minute 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.056 0.050 0.049 0.049 Growth Q/Q 5.6% (3.1%) (8.2%) (5.3%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (11.1%) (16.6%) (14.0%) Cost per minute Wholesale 0.051 0.049 0.046 0.049 0.042 0.041 0.041 Growth Q/Q 4.8% (3.6%) (5.5%) (9.7%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (13.8%) (18.5%) (16.4%) Outsourced 0.081 0.084 0.062 0.077 0.063 0.063 0.062 Growth Q/Q 1.4% 3.3% (25.7%) 1.0% (0.3%) (0.6%) Growth Y/Y (21.4%) (22.7%) (25.6%) Retail 0.036 0.038 0.036 0.036 0.036 0.036 0.035 Growth Q/Q 5.3% 6.0% (4.7%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Growth Y/Y 5.2% (1.1%) (7.6%) Aggregate cost per minute 0.053 0.052 0.047 0.051 0.044 0.043 0.043 Growth Q/Q 6.2% (2.3%) (9.0%) (7.2%) (0.8%) (0.9%) Growth Y/Y (12.3%) (18.1%) (17.0%) Margin per minute Wholesale 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 Margin 8.7% 7.5% 7.8% 8.2% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% Outsourced 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.011 Margin 16.2% 16.7% 18.4% 17.7% 15.6% 15.0% 14.6% Retail 0.006 0.004 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Margin 13.5% 9.2% 15.2% 13.3% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% Total Margin per minute 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Margin 10.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.3% 12.1% 12.0% 11.9% Strictly private and confidential Page 4 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029993 |
| Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 P&L Revenue Wholesale 272.2 238.1 220.7 985.1 183.3 181.5 181.4 Outsourced 67.8 70.5 53.4 241.9 48.0 47.5 47.5 Retail 20.8 29.4 25.7 96.5 24.2 23.7 23.6 Total revenue 360.8 338.0 299.8 1,323.5 255.5 252.7 252.5 Growth Y/Y (4.8%) Cost of sale Wholesale 248.6 220.2 203.4 904.6 163.5 161.9 161.9 Outsourced 56.8 58.7 43.6 199.1 40.5 40.4 40.6 Retail 18.0 26.7 21.8 83.6 20.5 20.1 20.0 Total Cost of sale 323.4 305.6 268.8 1,187.3 224.5 222.4 222.4 Gross profit Wholesale 23.6 17.9 17.3 80.5 19.8 19.6 19.6 Outsourced 11.0 11.8 9.8 42.8 7.5 7.1 6.9 Retail 2.8 2.7 3.9 12.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 Total gross profit 37.4 32.4 31.0 136.2 31.0 30.3 30.1 Margin 10.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.3% 12.1% 12.0% 11.9% Operating expenses Research & Development 6.0 5.6 5.6 23.8 5.0 4.5 4.0 % of revenue 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% SG&A 18.8 16.5 17.3 70.2 16.3 16.0 15.5 % of revenue 5.2% 4.9% 5.8% 5.3% 6.4% 6.3% 5.1% Total Opex 24.8 22.1 22.9 94.0 21.3 20.5 19.5 % of revenue 6.9% 6.5% 7.6% 7.1% 8.3% 8.1% 7.7% EBITDA 12.6 10.3 8.1 42.2 9.7 9.8 10.6 Margin 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% D&A PPE 4.3 4.3 3.6 15.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 % of revenue 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Amortization intangibles 4.2 4.2 4.2 16.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 % of revenue 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Depreciation & Amortization 8.5 8.5 7.8 32.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 % of revenue 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Stock-based compensation 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 Select Off EBIT 4.1 1.8 0.3 10.2 1.1 1.2 2.0 Margin 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% Taxes on EBIT (1.2) (0.6) (0.1) (3.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) Tax rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Interest income 2.1 Interest expense (3.0) Taxes paid 9.5 Implied tax race 93.1% Net income (0.3) Cash flow Capex (Cumulative for year) (7.0) (10.0) (16.0) (16.0) Capex (Period) (1.3) (3.0) (5.9) (16.0) (1.6) (4.5) (4.5) % of sales 0.4% 0.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% Strictly private and confidential Page 5 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029994 |
AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions
KPN
B C D E F M N O P Q R S
4 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
119
120 EBITDA less capex 11.3 7.3 2.2 26.3 8.1 5.3 6.1
Strictly private and confidential Page 6 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE
Confidential 0; KPN00029995
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions Project Celtic – Business Case Q4 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale 4.034 15.821 16.929 17.775 18.309 18.858 19.424 Growth Q/Q 2.0% Growth Y/Y (8.3%) (14.9%) 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Outsourced 0.663 2.602 2.784 2.923 3.011 3.101 3.194 Growth Q/Q 2.0% Growth Y/Y (5.2%) 0.1% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Retail 0.573 2.274 2.388 2.460 2.509 2.534 2.559 Growth Q/Q 1.0% Growth Y/Y (4.5%) (1.1%) 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% Total minutes of use 5.271 20.698 22.101 23.158 23.828 24.493 25.177 Growth Q/Q 1.9% Growth Y/Y (7.5%) (11.9%) 6.8% 4.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% Price per minute Wholesale 0.045 0.046 0.044 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.041 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (9.5%) (12.9%) (5.0%) (3.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Outsourced 0.072 0.073 0.066 0.063 0.062 0.061 0.060 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (5.2%) (21.1%) (10.0%) (5.0%) (2.0%) (1.5%) (1.0%) Retail 0.041 0.042 0.041 0.040 0.039 0.039 0.038 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (3.9%) (0.4%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) Aggregate price per minute 0.048 0.049 0.046 0.045 0.044 0.044 0.043 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (8.2%) (12.9%) (5.6%) (3.2%) (1.3%) (1.2%) (1.1%) Cost per minute Wholesale 0.041 0.041 0.039 0.038 0.038 0.037 0.037 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (12.4%) (15.4%) (4.6%) (3.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Outsourced 0.062 0.062 0.057 0.055 0.054 0.054 0.053 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (0.9%) (18.5%) (9.0%) (4.0%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (1.0%) Retail 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.034 0.034 0.033 0.032 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (3.9%) (2.5%) (1.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) Aggregate cost per minute 0.043 0.043 0.041 0.040 0.039 0.039 0.039 Growth Q/Q (1.0%) Growth Y/Y (9.7%) (14.5%) (5.0%) (3.1%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.1%) Margin per minute Wholesale 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 Margin 10.8% 10.8% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% Outsourced 0.011 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 Margin 14.6% 15.0% 14.0% 13.1% 12.0% 11.1% 11.1% Retail 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.005 Margin 15.2% 15.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% Total Margin per minute 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 Margin 11.9% 12.0% 11.4% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% Strictly private and confidential Page 7 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029996 |
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions Q4 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P&L Revenue Wholesale 183.2 729.4 741.5 755.2 770.1 785.2 800.7 Outsourced 49.0 191.0 183.9 183.5 185.2 187.9 191.6 Retail 23.6 95.0 97.8 98.7 98.6 97.6 96.6 Total Revenue 254.8 1,015.5 1,023.2 1,037.4 1,053.9 1,070.8 1,089.0 Growth Y/Y (23.3%) 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% Cost of sale Wholesale 163.4 650.7 664.2 676.5 689.8 703.4 717.2 Outsourced 41.0 162.4 158.2 159.4 163.1 167.1 170.4 Retail 20.0 80.6 83.8 84.6 84.5 83.7 82.8 Total Cost of sale 224.4 893.7 906.1 920.5 937.4 954.2 970.5 Gross Profit Wholesale 19.8 78.8 77.3 78.7 80.3 81.9 83.5 Outsourced 7.0 28.6 25.8 24.0 22.1 20.8 21.2 Retail 3.6 14.4 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.8 Total gross profit 30.4 121.8 117.1 116.9 116.5 116.6 118.5 Margin 11.9% 12.0% 11.4% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% Operating expenses Research& Development 4.0 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 % of revenue 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% SG&A 15.0 62.8 61.4 62.2 63.2 64.2 65.3 % of revenue 5.9% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Total Opex 19.0% 80.3 79.0 80.1 81.4 82.7 84.1 % of revenue 7.5% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% EBITDA 11.4 41.5 38.0 36.8 35.1 33.9 34.4 Margin 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% D&A PPE 3.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 % of revenue 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Amortization intangibles 4.8 19.4 17.9 16.4 12.5 3.9 3.0 % of revenue 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% Depreciation & Amortization 8.6 34.4 33.0 31.7 28.1 19.7 19.1 % of revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% Stock-based compensation 0.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 EBIT 2.8 7.1 5.0 5.1 7.0 14.2 15.3 Margin 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% Taxes or EBIT (0.8) (2.1) (1.5) (1.5) (2.1) (4.3) (4.6) Tax rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Interest income Interest expense Taxes paid Net Income Implied tax rate Cash flow Capex (Cumulative for year) Capex (Period) (4.5) (15.0) (15.1) (15.3) (15.6) (15.8) (16.1) % of sales 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Strictly private and confidential Page 8 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029997 |
AUTOPATH & #160; Mergers and Acquisitions
0; KPN
B C D E F T U V W X Y Z
4 Q4 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
119
120 EBITDA less capex 6.9 26.5 22.9 21.4 19.6 18.1 18.3
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Confidential 60; KPN00029998
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions Project Celtic – Business Case 2015 2016 2017 2018 9-year CAGR Revenue and margin drivers Minutes of Use (in bn) Wholesale 20.006 20.607 21.225 21.861 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Outsourced 3.290 3.389 3.490 3.595 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Retail 2.585 2.611 2.637 2.663 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Total minutes of use 25.881 26.606 27.352 28.120 3.5% Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Price per minute Wholesale 0.041 0.040 0.040 0.040 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Outsourced 0.059 0.059 0.058 0.058 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Retail 0.037 0.036 0.036 0.035 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) Aggregate price per minute 0.043 0.042 0.042 0.041 -1.9% Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (1.1%) (1.1%) (1.1%) (1.1%) Cost per minute Wholesale 1.037 0.036 0.036 0.035 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Outsourced 0.053 0.052 0.052 0.051 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Retail 0.032 0.031 0.030 0.030 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) Aggregate cost per minute 0.038 0.038 0.037 0.037 Growth Q/Q Growth Y/Y (1.1%) (1.0%) (1.0%) (1.0%) Margin per minute Wholesale 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 Margin 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% Outsourced 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 Margin 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% Retail 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 Margin 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% Total Margin per minute 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 Margin 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.8% Strictly private and confidential Page 10 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00029999 |
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions 2015 2016 2017 2018 9-year CAGR P&L Revenue Wholesale 816.5 832.6 849.0 865.7 Outsourced 195.4 199.2 203.2 207.2 Retail 95.6 94.7 93.7 92.7 Total revenue 1,107.5 1,126.5 1,145.8 1,165.6 Growth Y/Y 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Cost of sale Wholesale 731.4 745.8 760.5 775.5 Outsourced 173.8 177.2 180.7 184.3 Retail 82.0 81.1 80.3 79.5 Total Cost of sale 987.1 1,004.1 1,021.5 1,039.2 Gross profit Wholesale 85.1 86.8 88.5 90.2 Outsourced 21.6 22.0 22.5 22.9 Retail 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.3 Total gross profit 120.4 122.4 124.4 126.4 0.4% Margin 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.8% Operating expenses Research & Development 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.1 % of revenue 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% SG&A 66.5 67.6 68.8 69.9 % of revenue 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Total Opex 85.5 87.0 88.5 90.0 % of revenue 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% EBITDA 34.9 35.4 35.9 36.4 Margin 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% D&A PPE 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 % of revenue 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Amortization intangible 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 % of revenue 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Depreciation & Amortization 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 % of revenue 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% Stock –based compensation 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Select Off EBIT 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 Margin 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Taxes on EBIT (5.0) (5.0) (5.1) (5.2) Tax rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Interest income Interest expenses Taxes paid Implied tax rate Net income Cash flow Capex (Cumulative for year) Capex (Period) (16.4) (16.6) (16.9) (17.2) % of sales 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Strictly private and confidential Page 11 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030000 |
AUTOPATH & #160; Mergers and Acquisitions
0; KPN
B C D E F AA AB AC AD AE
4 2015 2016 2017 2018 9-year CAGR
119
120 EBITDA less capex 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2
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Confidential 60; KPN00030001
AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
Cell: | | L8 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release (all Q’s) |
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Cell: | | L11 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release (all Q’s) |
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Cell: | | L14 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release (all Q’s) |
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Cell: | | G17 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
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Cell: | | G31 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
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Cell: | | Q31 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
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Cell: | | Q45 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
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Cell: | | G62 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
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Cell: | | L62 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies (all Q’s) |
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Cell: | | Q62 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
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Cell: | | L63 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies (all Q’s) |
| | |
Cell: | | Q63 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
| | |
Cell: | | L64 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies (all Q’s) |
| | |
Cell: | | Q64 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
| | |
Cell: | | L69 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies (all Q’s) |
| | |
Cell: | | L70 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies (all Q’s) |
| | |
Cell: | | L71 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies (all Q’s) |
Strictly private and confidential | Print date: AUTODATE |
AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
Cell: | | Q75 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
| | |
Cell: | | Q76 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
| | |
Cell: | | Q77 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | IBAS press release |
| | |
Cell: | | L82 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | M82 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | N82 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | O82 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | L86 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | M86 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | N86 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | O86 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies |
| | |
Cell: | | P94 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 88 |
| | |
Cell: | | U94 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Set equal to capex |
| | |
Cell: | | U96 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 89 |
| | |
Cell: | | V96 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 89 |
| | |
Cell: | | W96 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 89 |
| | |
Cell: | | X96 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 89 |
Confidential | | KPN00030003 |
| | |
Strictly private and confidential | | Print date: AUTODATE |
AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
Cell: | | Y96 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 89 |
| | |
Cell: | | P98 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 67 |
| | |
Cell: | | V101 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies forecast |
| | |
Cell: | | W101 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies forecast |
| | |
Cell: | | X101 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies forecast |
| | |
Cell: | | Y101 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies forecast |
| | |
Cell: | | Z101 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Jefferies forecast |
| | |
Cell: | | K110 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 52 |
| | |
Cell: | | P110 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | 10K’08 page 52 |
| | |
Cell: | | U117 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Company guidance |
Confidential | | KPN00030004 |
| | |
Strictly private and confidential | | Print date: AUTODATE |
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions Jefferies and Co. projections January 27 – 2009 ($ mn) Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 2009 Minutes of Use 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.2 24.1 Growth 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% Price per minute 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 Growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Revenue Wholesale 222.2 228.2 236.6 238.3 925.3 Growth 2.7% 3.7% 0.7% Outsourced from KPN 52.9 54.0 55.6 55.7 218.2 Growth 2.1% 3.0% 0.2% Retail 26.8 27.8 29.2 29.7 113.5 Growth 3.7% 5.0% 1.7% Total revenue 301.9 310.0 321.5 323.7 1,257.0 Growth 2.7% 3.7% 0.7% COGS Wholesale 204.1 209.3 216.5 217.9 847.8 Growth 2.5% 3.4% 0.6% Outsourced from KPN 43.9 45.0 46.5 46.8 182.2 Growth 2.5% 3.3% 0.6% Retail 22.6 23.1 23.9 24.1 93.7 Growth 2.2% 3.5% 0.8% Total COGS 270.6 277.5 287.0 288.8 1,123.7 Growth 2.5% 3.4% 0.6% Gross profit 31.3 32.6 34.5 34.9 133.3 Margin 10.4% 10.5% 10.7% 10.8% 10.6% Operating expenses Research & Development 5.6 5.8 6 6 23.4 % of revenue 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Selling & Marketing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 % of revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% General & Administration 17.4 17.89 18.4 18.6 72.3 % of revenue 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% Total Opex 23.0 23.7 24.4 24.6 95.7 EBITDA 8.9 8.9 10.1 10.3 37.6 Margin 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% Depreciation 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 32.2 % of revenue 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% Stock-based compensation 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.6 Select On EBIT 0.5 0.9 2.0 2.0 5.4 Margin 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% Strictly private and confidential Page 16 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030005 |
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.7 28.5 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 0.051 0.049 0.049 0.048 0.047 (1.9%) (3.9%) 0.0% (2.0%) (2.1%) 926.1 923.2 920.5 916.1 911.6 0.1% (0.3%) (0.3%) (0.5%) (0.5%) 217.6 216.1 214.6 212.7 210.7 (0.3%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.9%) (0.9%) 131.7 149.9 168.5 187.3 206.3 16.0% 13.8% 12.4% 11.2% 10.1% 1,275.4 1,289.2 1,303.6 1,316.1 1,328.6 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 848.3 847.1 846.1 843.6 841.0 0.1% (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.3%) (0.3%) 184.6 188.6 188.6 190.4 192.2 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 105.1 116.6 128.3 140.0 152.0 12.2% 10.9% 10.0% 9.1% 8.6% 1,138.0 1,150.3 1,163.0 1,174.0 1,185.2 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 137.4 138.9 140.6 142.1 143.4 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.6 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 73.2 73.9 74.8 75.5 76.2 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 96.8 97.8 99.0 99.9 100.8 40.6 41.1 41.6 42.2 42.5 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 32.9 33.3 31.2 28.8 27.6 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.9 7.8 10.4 13.4 15.0 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% Strictly private and confidential Page 17 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030006 |
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions Business Case Jefferies ($mn) 2004PF 2005PF 2006PF 2007PF 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E ($mn) Revenue 994.2 1,140.6 1,298.9 1,390.6 1,323.6 1,015.5 1,023.2 1,037.4 1,053.9 1,070.8 1,089.0 1,107.5 Revenue Growth 14.7% 13.9% 7.1% (4.8%) (23.3%) 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% Growth Cost of revenue 873.6 1,037.3 1,165.5 1,248.2 1,187.3 893.7 906.1 920.5 937.4 954.2 970.5 987.1 Cost of revenue Gross margin 120.6 103.3 133.4 142.4 136.3 121.8 117.1 116.9 116.5 116.6 118.5 120.4 Gross margin Margin 12.1% 9.1% 10.3% 10.2% 10.3% 12.0% 11.4% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% Margin Operating expenses 57.2 64.4 72.5 90.1 94.0 80.3 79.0 80.1 81.4 82.7 84.1 85.5 Operating expenses Operating EBITDA 63.4 38.9 60.9 52.3 42.3 41.5 38.0 36.8 35.1 33.9 34.4 34.9 Operating EBITDA Margin 6.4% 3.4% 4.7% 3.8% 3.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% Margin Depreciation and amort. 24.6 18.8 17.4 n.a. 32.0 34.4 33.0 31.7 28.1 19.7 19.1 18.4 Depreciation and amort. Operating EBIT 38.8 20.1 43.5 n.a. 10.3 7.1 5.0 5.1 7.0 14.2 15.3 16.5 Operating EBIT Margin 3.9% 1.8% 3.3% n.a. 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% Margin Capex (7.5) (8.3) (14.8) n.a. (16.0) (15.0) (15.1) (15.3) (15.6) (15.8) (16.1) (16.4) Capex EBITDA - Capex 55.9 30.6 46.1 n.a. 26.3 26.5 22.9 21.4 19.6 18.1 18.3 18.5 EBITDA - Capex Revenue ($mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case 994.2 1,140.6 1,289.9 1,390.6 1,323.6 1,015.5 1,023.2 1,037.4 1,053.9 1,070.8 1,089.0 1,107.5 Jefferies and Co. 1,257.1 1,275.4 1,289.2 1,303.6 1,316.1 1,328.6 Gross margin ($mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case 120.6 103.3 133.4 142.4 136.3 121.8 117.1 116.9 116.5 116.6 118.5 120.4 Jefferies and Co. 133.4 137.4 139.0 140.6 142.0 143.4 EBITDA ($mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case 63.4 38.9 60.9 52.3 42.3 41.5 38.0 36.8 35.1 33.9 34.4 34.9 Jefferies and Co. 37.8% 40.6% 41.2 41.7% 42.1 42.6% EBITDA – capex ($mn) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case 55.9 30.6 46.1 n.a. 26.3 26.5 22.9 21.4 19.6 18.1 18.3 18.5 Jefferies and Co. 22.8% 22.6% 20.2 17.7 15.8 14.3 Gross margin (%) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case 12.1% 9.1% 10.3% 10.2% 10.3% 12.0% 11.4% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% Jefferies and Co. 10.6% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% EBITDA margin (%) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Base case 6.4% 3.4% 4.7% 3.8% 3.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% Jefferies and Co. 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% Strictly private and confidential Page 18 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030007 |
| AUTOPATH Mergers and Acquisitions 2004PF 2005PF 2006PF 2007PF 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 994.2 1,140.6 1,298.9 1,390.6 1,323.6 1,257.1 1,257.4 1,289.2 1,303.6 1,316.1 1,328.6 14.7% 13.9% 7.1% -4.8% -5.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 873.6 1,037.3 1,165.5 1,248.2 1,187.3 1,123.7 1,138.0 1,150.2 1,163.0 1,174.1 1,185.2 120.6 103.3 133.4 142.4 136.3 133.4 137.4 139.0 140.6 142.0 143.4 12.1% 9.1% 10.3% 10.2% 10.3% 10.6% 10.8% 19.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 57.2 64.4 72.5 90.1 94.0 95.6 96.8 97.8 98.9 99.9 100.8 63.4 38.9 60.9 52.3 42.3 37.8 40.6 41.2 41.7 42.1 42.6 6.4% 3.4% 4.7% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 24.6 18.8 17.4 n.a. 32.0 32.2 32.9 33.3 31.2 28.8 27.6 38.8 20.1 43.5 n.a. 10.3 5.6 7.7 7.9 10.5 13.3 15.0 3.9% 1.8% 3.3% n.a. 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% (7.5) (8.3) (14.8) n.a. (16.0) (15.0) (18.0) (21.0) (24.0) (26.3) (28.3) 55.9 30.6 46.1 n.a. 26.3 22.8 22.6 20.2 17.7 15.8 14.3 Strictly private and confidential Page 19 of 20 Print date: AUTODATE Confidential KPN00030008 |
AUTOPATH | Mergers and Acquisitions |
Cell: | | C3 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Source: Volcano SvB presentation |
| | |
Cell: | | D3 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Source: Volcano SvB presentation |
| | |
Cell: | | E3 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Source: Volcano SvB presentation |
| | |
Cell: | | F3 |
Comment: | | Jan Rodenburg: |
| | Source: Jeffries report Q4 08 |
Confidential | | KPN00030009 |
| | |
Strictly private and confidential | | Print date: AUTODATE |
