ASML Operates in a Growing Lithography Market
Franki D’Hoore
Director Investor Relations
March 2006
Exhibit 99.5
Safe Harbor
“Safe Harbor” Statement under the U.S. Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this
document may include forward-looking statements that are
subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to:
economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor
equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and
manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors (the
principal product of our customer base), competitive products
and pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new product
development, ability to enforce patents, the outcome of
intellectual property litigation, availability of raw materials and
critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment, and other
risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual
Report on Form 20-F and other filings with the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission.
ASML 2005 Summary
Overall semiconductor equipment market decreased by
nine percent in 2005
At ASML
Sales increased by three percent year on year
Net profit improved by 32 percent to EUR 311 million
Net cash from operations nearly tripled to EUR 711
million in 2005 versus 2004.
Litho Growth Opportunity - 3 Long term growth
contributors
Trend Effect on ASML
Semiconductor consumption
assume unit growth 8-10% per year Capacity buys
Moore’s law continuation
leading to technology upgrades Technology buys
Litho Average Selling Price
resultant from Moore’s law Higher ASP
Calculations
Assumptions
Fab based model - for each fab, each year:
Roadmaps (t)
Customer
litho
technology
productivity
Req’d. Production
Product
Volume (t)
Litho
Purchases
(#, $)
Req’d.
Litho tool set
Installed
base (t+1)
Next
year
Long term growth in semiconductors
for both advanced digital and analog, discrete
Assume long term
semiconductor unit growth
in 8-10% range (take: 9%)
Source: WSTS
Customer roadmaps
Model inputs
Source: ASML
10
100
DRAM
Flash
Logic, Foundry
DRAM (trend)
Flash (trend)
Logic, Foundry (trend)
Litho technology application
Technology as indication only, actual technologies used may vary
Source: ASML
EUV
ArF-i
EUV
ArF-i
90
65
45
32
22
Critical litho
KrF
ArF
ArF-i
EUV
EUV
Critical Metallization litho
KrF
KrF
ArF
ArF-i
ArF-i
Mid-critical litho
KrF
KrF
KrF
ArF
ArF-i
Implant litho
i-Line
KrF
KrF
KrF
ArF
90
65
45
32
22
Critical litho
ArF
ArF
ArF-i
EUV
Critical Metallization litho
KrF
ArF
ArF
ArF-i
ArF-i
Mid-critical litho
KrF
KrF
KrF
ArF
ArF-i
Implant litho
KrF
KrF
KrF
KrF
ArF
Node
Node
WW litho sales - technology split
ArF is of growing
importance
Source: Dataquest (’00-’04), ASML fab based model (’05-’10)
Growing importance of immersion
Immersion will become
the dominant ArF
technology
Source: ASML Fab based Model
Litho ASP continues to rise
Litho ASP continues to
rise at 10-15% per year
Source: Dataquest (’81-’04), ASML fab based model (’05-’10)
Affordability
Litho cost per
function is 65% of
previous generation
Source: ASML Fab based Model
Growth projection lithography sales
Source: Average of Dataquest, VLSI Research and ASML fab based model
Average WW litho sales
ASML’s potential
Status quo
Natural growth
potential towards
4-5 B€ range
ASML’s
opportunity
window
Future litho market
Analysis of fab based model confirms a growth potential for
ASML towards 4-5 B€ range, under following assumptions:
8% to 10% IC unit growth
Continuing tool ASP growth, delivering lower cost
per function per historical trend
Flawless execution of ASML business model
2006 Outlook
Economy continues to perform stronger than
expected.
IC inventories low
Utilization rates remain high so little excess capacity
6 cycles working
Flash memory
DRAM
Foundry
Microprocessor
IDM’s
R&D
.
2006 forecast indicates high single digit growth
Average
2006 Semiconductor revenue forecast
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
iSupply
InStat
Dataquest
SIA
IDC
IC Insights
WSTS
VLSI Research
ML
Semico
Future Horizons
2006 Litho Unit Consumption Calculations Summary
- using ASML’s fab based model
approx. 500
Litho Units (incl Used) Required
10%
Semiconductor Units growth
8%
Semiconductor Revenues growth
Source: ASML
Last data point: December 2005
ASML’s fab based model requires several input assumptions that are open
for challenge and discussion.
Commitment